BlackRock (BLK)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $1176.59 | Market Cap: $181.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
BlackRock (BLK)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $1176.59Market Cap: $181.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.0% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 5.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.1 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 26x Key risksBLK key risks include [1] antitrust lawsuits and regulatory actions targeting its ESG initiatives, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 5.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.8 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 26x |
| Key risksBLK key risks include [1] antitrust lawsuits and regulatory actions targeting its ESG initiatives, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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BlackRock (BLK) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat: BlackRock (BLK) reported exceptional financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $15.93. This significantly exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $14.32 by $1.61, or 11.2%. Quarterly revenue also demonstrated robust growth, rising 19.1% year-over-year to $7.75 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $7.42 billion.
2. Record Assets Under Management (AUM) and Robust Net Inflows: The company achieved a record $15.5 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) in fiscal Q3 2026, representing a 15.5% increase year-over-year. This growth was significantly boosted by substantial net inflows of $205 billion during the quarter. These inflows included $134.5 billion into iShares ETFs and $66 billion in active net inflows, indicating broad-based strength across diverse asset classes and client segments.
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BlackRock (BLK) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat: BlackRock (BLK) reported exceptional financial results for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $15.93. This significantly exceeded the analyst consensus estimate of $14.32 by $1.61, or 11.2%. Quarterly revenue also demonstrated robust growth, rising 19.1% year-over-year to $7.75 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $7.42 billion.
2. Record Assets Under Management (AUM) and Robust Net Inflows: The company achieved a record $15.5 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) in fiscal Q3 2026, representing a 15.5% increase year-over-year. This growth was significantly boosted by substantial net inflows of $205 billion during the quarter. These inflows included $134.5 billion into iShares ETFs and $66 billion in active net inflows, indicating broad-based strength across diverse asset classes and client segments.
3. Strategic Expansion in Technology Services and Private Markets, including AI Infrastructure: BlackRock showcased strong performance in its technology services and subscription revenue, which grew 14% year-over-year to $588 million in fiscal Q3 2026. The firm also strategically expanded its presence in private markets, raising $68 billion over the preceding twelve months. Notably, BlackRock made its first deployment through its AI Infrastructure Partnership in fiscal Q3 2026, capitalizing on the broader market trend of substantial investment in artificial intelligence.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades: During the specified period, BlackRock received several positive analyst actions and maintained a favorable outlook. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgraded the stock from "hold" to "moderate buy" in October 2026, and TD Cowen also raised its rating from "Hold" to "Buy". The consensus price target for BlackRock stood at $1,342.25, suggesting continued potential for appreciation.
5. Favorable Broader Market Conditions: BlackRock's performance benefited from a supportive macroeconomic environment, characterized by strong equity markets. The S&P 500 extended its gains during fiscal Q3 2026, reaching near record highs, which provided a significant tailwind for the asset management industry. This positive market sentiment was partly driven by ongoing optimism and substantial investment in artificial intelligence, contributing to BlackRock's growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.7% change in BLK stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1084.82 | 1178.87 | 8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,638 | 28,542 | 11.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.4% | 24.2% | -0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 26.4 | -2.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 63.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.4% | 77.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.8% change in BLK stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1054.22 | 1178.87 | 11.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,216 | 28,542 | 17.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.9% | 24.2% | 5.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.5 | 26.4 | -10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 52.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.0% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.2% change in BLK stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1060.15 | 1178.87 | 11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,573 | 28,542 | 32.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 24.2% | -18.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 26.4 | 3.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 58.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.5% | 68.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 105.8% change in BLK stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 572.70 | 1178.87 | 105.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,354 | 28,542 | 64.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 24.2% | -19.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 26.4 | 59.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 155 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 105.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 105.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 66.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 84.4% | 72.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLK Return | 29% | -20% | 18% | 29% | 7% | 12% | 87% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -13% | 17% | 44% | 46% | 14% | 237% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLK Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 83% | 58% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 43% | 48% | 67% | 75% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLK Max Drawdown | -13% | -41% | -21% | -11% | -24% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -37% | -24% | -10% | -26% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STT, JPM, MS, GS, BNY. See BLK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 653 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
In The Past
BlackRock's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 653 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
BlackRock's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BlackRock (BLK)
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is a leading global investment management firm that helps a diverse array of clients manage and grow their financial assets. The company provides comprehensive investment and risk management services, aiming to meet the unique financial objectives of its investors through strategic allocation and active management across various global markets.
The firm's main products and services include managing custom client-focused portfolios across equities, fixed income, and balanced strategies. BlackRock is also a major provider of a wide range of investment vehicles, such as open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, hedge funds, and alternative investment products. A cornerstone of its offerings is an extensive lineup of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) covering virtually every asset class, from equities and fixed income to commodities and multi-asset strategies. Beyond direct asset management, BlackRock also offers global risk management and advisory services.
BlackRock primarily serves a broad spectrum of institutional investors, including large corporate, public, and union pension plans, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, sovereign wealth funds, and governments. It also provides services to third-party mutual funds, corporations, banks, and individual investors, often through financial intermediaries. The firm invests globally across public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets, utilizing both fundamental and quantitative analysis to guide its investment decisions.
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Here are a few analogies to describe BlackRock (BLK):
- The Amazon of investment management.
- A super-sized Fidelity or Vanguard.
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- Investment Management: BlackRock provides comprehensive investment management services, crafting tailored portfolios for institutional, intermediary, and individual clients across various asset classes.
- Mutual Funds: The firm offers a diverse range of mutual funds, including open-end and closed-end structures, focusing on equities, fixed income, balanced strategies, and real estate.
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): BlackRock launches and manages various ETFs, covering equities, fixed income, balanced portfolios, currencies, commodities, and multi-asset strategies.
- Alternative Investment Vehicles: The company provides alternative investment options such as structured funds and hedge funds, catering to specialized investment strategies.
- Risk Management and Advisory Services: BlackRock delivers global risk management and advisory services to help clients identify, assess, and mitigate financial risks.
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BlackRock (BLK) primarily provides its services to a wide array of institutional and intermediary investors, as well as individual investors. Based on the company description, its major customers are primarily other companies and large organizations. The specific names of customer companies are not provided; instead, categories of customers are listed. Therefore, the major customer categories are:
- Pension Plans: This includes corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans.
- Financial Institutions: Such as insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, banks, and sovereign wealth funds.
- Governmental & Non-Profit Entities: Including endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, corporations, and official institutions.
As the background description provides categories of customers rather than specific company names, no stock symbols can be provided for these general categories.
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- FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS)
- S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
- MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
- London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG)
- The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK)
- State Street Corp. (STT)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
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Larry Fink, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Larry Fink co-founded BlackRock in 1988 with seven partners. Prior to establishing BlackRock, he was a member of the management committee and a managing director at The First Boston Corporation, where he co-headed the Taxable Fixed Income Division. During his tenure at First Boston, his department experienced a significant loss due to an incorrect interest rate prediction, an experience that influenced his decision to build a company with robust risk management. BlackRock was initially formed under the corporate umbrella of The Blackstone Group, a private equity firm, before becoming an independent company.
Martin Small, Chief Financial Officer and Global Head of Corporate Strategy
Martin Small joined BlackRock in 2006 as a member of the Legal & Compliance Department. He assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2023. Before becoming CFO, he served as Head of BlackRock's U.S. Wealth Advisory business from 2018 to 2022. His previous roles include Head of U.S. and Canada iShares from 2014 to 2018, and he helped establish and served in leadership roles for the firm's Financial Markets Advisory (FMA) group. Prior to joining BlackRock, Mr. Small was a corporate lawyer with Davis Polk & Wardwell in New York.
Rob Kapito, President
Robert S. Kapito is a co-founder of BlackRock and has served as its President since 2007. He co-founded BlackRock in 1988 alongside Laurence D. Fink and others, initially focusing on fixed-income assets and risk management. Before co-founding BlackRock, Mr. Kapito was a Vice President in the Mortgage Products Group at The First Boston Corporation, where he worked with Larry Fink, pioneering the mortgage-backed security market.
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman
Philipp Hildebrand joined BlackRock as Vice Chairman in 2012. In this role, he is responsible for strengthening global client and government relationships and driving business growth. Prior to joining BlackRock, he served as Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from 2010 to 2012. During his time at SNB, he was also a Director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Swiss Governor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and a member of the Financial Stability Board (FSB). Earlier in his career, he was Chief Investment Officer of a Swiss private bank and a partner at Moore Capital Management in London.
Susan Wagner, Co-founder, Director, and Retired Vice Chairman
Susan Wagner is one of the co-founders of BlackRock, which she helped establish in 1988. She served as vice chairman and chief operating officer, orchestrating major mergers and acquisitions for the firm, including those with Merrill Lynch Investment Management and Barclays Global Investors. Prior to co-founding BlackRock, Ms. Wagner was a vice president in the Mortgage Finance Group at Lehman Brothers. She retired from executive roles at BlackRock in 2012 but continues to serve on its board of directors.
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- Liquidity and Valuation Concerns in Private Credit and Alternative Assets: BlackRock faces significant risk from liquidity and valuation concerns within its private credit and alternative investment offerings. Recent events, such as the firm capping withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund due to redemption requests exceeding limits, highlight potential issues with liquidity and transparency in these less-liquid assets. This situation can lead to increased investor skepticism, reputational damage, and potential regulatory scrutiny across the sector.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Risks Related to ESG Initiatives: BlackRock is exposed to heightened regulatory and antitrust risks, particularly concerning its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. The company, alongside other major institutional investors, has been subject to antitrust lawsuits alleging collusion to reduce coal production through ESG commitments. This scrutiny from federal and state antitrust enforcers could result in significant legal liabilities and impact BlackRock's ability to pursue sustainability objectives, especially when involving collaboration with competing investment companies.
- Intense Competition and Evolving Market Dynamics: BlackRock operates in a fiercely competitive global asset management sector. The firm faces pressure from established rivals like The Vanguard Group and State Street Global Advisors, as well as from innovative fintech startups. Key competitive dynamics include adapting to evolving client preferences, such as the growing demand for sustainable investing, and navigating shifts in the investment landscape, including the ongoing importance of data analytics and fee competitiveness. Failure to adapt to technological advancements, regulatory changes, and global economic shifts could impact its market position, assets under management (AUM), revenue, and earnings.
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The rise of direct indexing solutions presents a clear emerging threat. Direct indexing allows investors to directly own the individual securities of an index, offering benefits such as greater tax efficiency and customized portfolio management. This approach directly competes with BlackRock's extensive suite of index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds. If direct indexing becomes more widespread and accessible across various investor segments, it could significantly erode demand for BlackRock's core index-based product offerings.
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BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) operates within substantial addressable markets across its diverse range of investment products and services.
The estimated addressable markets for BlackRock's main products and services are as follows:
- Global Asset Management Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global asset management industry's total assets under management reached approximately $139.9 trillion at the end of 2024. Another estimate placed the global asset management industry at a record-breaking $128 trillion in AUM in 2024.
- U.S. Asset Management Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The United States asset management market was valued at approximately $52.08 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $134.67 trillion by 2030. Another projection indicates the U.S. asset management market size is projected at $70.97 trillion in 2026, reaching $125.98 trillion by 2031.
- Global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global ETF market concluded 2025 with approximately $19.8 trillion in total assets invested. As of September 2025, global ETF assets reached a record high of $18.81 trillion.
- U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The U.S. ETF market totaled $13.4 trillion in assets as of January 2026. In September 2025, the U.S. ETF industry's assets surpassed $12.70 trillion.
- Global Mutual Funds Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): Worldwide open-end mutual fund assets were $69.0 trillion at the end of 2023. The global mutual fund assets market was approximately $67.48 trillion in 2022 and is predicted to grow to around $145.24 trillion by 2030.
- U.S. Mutual Funds Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The U.S. mutual funds market was valued at $34.58 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $43.25 trillion by 2030. At the end of 2023, U.S. mutual fund assets were $38.8 trillion. The U.S. mutual fund market is expected to hold $31.68 trillion in assets in 2026 and is projected to climb to $40.98 trillion by 2031.
- Global Alternative Investments Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global alternative investments market is projected to exceed $33 trillion in 2025. The global alternatives market's assets under management are expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030. The global alternative industry reached $16.8 trillion at the end of 2023 and is estimated to exceed $30 trillion by 2030.
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BlackRock (BLK) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Expansion into Private Markets: BlackRock is strategically expanding its presence in private markets, including infrastructure and private credit, through significant acquisitions such as Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and HPS Investment Partners. The firm aims for its private markets and technology businesses to contribute 30% or more of its total revenue by 2030, a substantial increase from 15% in 2024. BlackRock is targeting $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising from 2025 to 2030. This expansion capitalizes on higher fees generated by private assets compared to traditional public market offerings.
- Growth in Technology Services and AI: The proprietary Aladdin platform remains central to BlackRock's operations, significantly contributing to technology services and subscription revenue. The company is also actively investing in AI infrastructure and developing new AI-themed investment products, such as thematic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on AI, which are expected to drive sustained expansion. Technology services and subscription revenue increased by 16% year-over-year in Q1 2025.
- Continued Assets Under Management (AUM) Growth, particularly through iShares ETFs: BlackRock continues to experience robust organic AUM growth, driven by substantial net inflows into its diverse product offerings, especially iShares ETFs. For example, iShares ETFs saw record net inflows of $85 billion in Q2 2025 and $527 billion in Q4 2025. The company anticipates an annual organic AUM growth rate of 3.4% for 2025, aligning with its long-term targets.
- Expansion into Transition Investing: BlackRock is reorienting its sustainability approach towards "transition investing," focusing on companies actively engaged in decarbonization and adapting to climate change. This strategic pivot aligns with evolving investor preferences and regulatory landscapes, positioning the firm to capture opportunities in this growing investment theme.
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Share Repurchases
- BlackRock's annual share buybacks were $1.93 billion in 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, BlackRock's share buybacks totaled $1.95 billion.
- In the first and second quarters of 2025, share buybacks were $657 million and $396 million, respectively.
Share Issuance
- BlackRock's shares outstanding increased to 0.161 billion in 2025, a 6.13% increase from 2024.
- Shares outstanding in 2024 were 0.152 billion, a 0.6% increase from 2023.
Outbound Investments
- BlackRock made 43 acquisitions in total, with peak activity in 2024 (7 acquisitions) and 2022 (7 acquisitions).
- Significant acquisitions include Viridium Gruppe for $3.82 billion in March 2025, HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in December 2024, and Global Infrastructure Partners for $12.5 billion in January 2024.
- Over the last five years (2020–2025), BlackRock averaged 5 acquisitions per year.
Capital Expenditures
- BlackRock's capital expenditures peaked at $533 million in December 2022.
- Capital expenditures decreased to $344 million in 2023 and further to $255 million in 2024.
- For the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025, BlackRock did not report meaningful capital expenditures, with the most recent quarter showing -$130 million.
Peer Outperformance in Asset Management & Custody Banks
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 17.7% | 26.4x | 11.3% | 93.4% | 37.8% | — |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 19.8% | 26.5x | 105.5% | 472.2% | 204.4% | +167pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 29.4% | 72.7% | 116.0% | SPNT 167% · RGA 156% · RNR 127% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 28.4% | 141.2% | 88.0% | CM 145% · RY 127% · JPM 124% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -6.7% | 89.5% | 85.6% | IBKR 323% · SNEX 156% · GS 139% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 8.8% | 60.0% | 80.0% | BRK-B 98% · VOYA 62% · JEF 34% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 9.7% | 57.7% | 76.6% | JXN 500% · UNM 240% · FG 211% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 13.8% | 73.5% | 66.7% | TRV 174% · ACGL 165% · PGR 164% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 5.4% | 70.7% | 56.0% | AIZ 107% · GNW 101% · L 92% |
| Regional Banks | 267 | 29.4% | 92.4% | 46.2% | CBC 272% · FCNCA 172% · NIC 137% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 2.2% | 10.0% | 29.6% | LIFE 297% · ARX 89% · WTW 51% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 16.6% | 31.2% | 15.9% | CBOE 182% · VIRT 132% · CME 71% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks ← | 85 | -6.7% | 20.9% | 12.8% | VCTR 233% · WT 209% · AAMI 204% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 2.5% | 85.0% | 7.2% | ENVA 337% · FCFS 129% · ECPG 90% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -43.9% | 29.5% | 2.6% | FNMA 348% · FMCC 305% · ACT 151% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -6.2% | 22.5% | -0.8% | FRHC 150% · EQH 71% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 25.4% | 33.0% | -20.4% | CACC -20% · HASI -21% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 23.6% | 10.4% | -29.1% | V 99% · MA 92% · CPAY 84% |
| Mortgage REITs | 35 | -20.5% | -10.7% | -38.7% | RITM 34% · DX 16% · AGNC 10% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -47.8% | -4.9% | -69.5% | LPLA 81% · TW 37% · RIOT -54% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 258.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 219.6 |
| Rev LTM | 49,120 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,853 |
| FCF LTM | -21,858 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -18,817 |
| CFO LTM | -20,018 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -16,583 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 34.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -33.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -33.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 8,210 | 7,290 | 6,418 | 7,203 | 8,000 |
| Fixed income | 3,550 | 3,319 | 3,127 | 3,495 | 3,863 |
| Alternatives | 3,019 | 1,764 | 1,461 | 1,590 | 1,513 |
| Technology services and subscription revenue | 1,981 | 1,603 | 1,485 | 1,364 | 1,281 |
| Investment Advisory Performance Fees | 1,424 | 1,207 | 554 | 514 | 1,143 |
| Distribution fees | 1,355 | 1,273 | 1,262 | 1,381 | 1,521 |
| Active multi-asset | 1,332 | 1,248 | 1,172 | 1,299 | 1,414 |
| Non-exchange-traded fund (ETF) index | 1,321 | 1,183 | 1,127 | ||
| Cash management | 1,245 | 1,049 | 909 | 864 | 470 |
| Digital assets, commodities and multi-asset exchange-traded fund (ETFs) | 502 | 247 | 185 | ||
| Advisory and other revenue | 277 | 224 | 159 | 163 | 169 |
| Total | 24,216 | 20,407 | 17,859 | 17,873 | 19,374 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,178.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 182.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,104.22 | $1,056.95 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 6.8% | 11.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.6% | 28.1% |
| Downside Capture | 120.42 | 142.72 |
| Upside Capture | 185.64 | 142.82 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 64.3% | 59.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.92 | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | -2.38 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| Down Beta | 0.37 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 222% | 170% | 162% | 136% | 151% | 147% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 33 | 64 | 126 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 68% | 142% | 128% | 117% | 125% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 22 | 31 | 62 | 125 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | 12.2% | 28.1% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.0% | 15.3% | 0.41 | 69.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 58.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 22.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -29.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 43.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 34.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | 7.1% | 27.2% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.0% | 18.4% | 0.35 | 76.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 74.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 61.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 34.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | 16.1% | 28.0% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 77.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 77.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 18.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 60.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 20.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2026 | 0.7% | 5.9% | |
| 7/15/2026 | 6.6% | 1.2% | 13.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 1/15/2026 | 0.6% | -2.3% | -7.3% |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.4% | 0.4% | -6.0% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.9% | -1.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/11/2025 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.6% |
| 1/15/2025 | -1.7% | 0.4% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 2.0% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -2.0% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -2.3% | -7.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2026 | 0.7% | 5.9% | |
| 7/15/2026 | 6.6% | 1.2% | 13.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 1/15/2026 | 0.6% | -2.3% | -7.3% |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.4% | 0.4% | -6.0% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.9% | -1.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/11/2025 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.6% |
| 1/15/2025 | -1.7% | 0.4% | -3.9% |
| 10/11/2024 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 2.0% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -2.0% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 5.9% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -2.3% | -7.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1080.57 | 1,905 | 2,058,486 | 241,865,064 | Form |
| 2 | Meade, Christopher J | General Counsel and CLO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1102.09 | 18,095 | 19,942,340 | 15,494,300 | Form |
| 3 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 1050.55 | 33,900 | 35,613,717 | 242,169,071 | Form |
| 4 | Kapito, Robert | President | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 1056.60 | 8,739 | 9,233,596 | 222,082,190 | Form |
| 5 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | The Kushel Family 2018 Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 1084.91 | 385 | 417,690 | 3,618,175 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1080.57 | 1,905 | 2,058,486 | 241,865,064 | Form |
| 2 | Meade, Christopher J | General Counsel and CLO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1102.09 | 18,095 | 19,942,340 | 15,494,300 | Form |
| 3 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 1050.55 | 33,900 | 35,613,717 | 242,169,071 | Form |
| 4 | Kapito, Robert | President | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 1056.60 | 8,739 | 9,233,596 | 222,082,190 | Form |
| 5 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | The Kushel Family 2018 Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 1084.91 | 385 | 417,690 | 3,618,175 | Form |
| 6 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 1083.05 | 2,000 | 2,166,100 | 67,127,807 | Form |
| 7 | Cohen, Stephen | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 1069.56 | 225 | 240,651 | 6,054,779 | Form |
| 8 | Goldstein, Robert L | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 1084.22 | 5,293 | 5,738,790 | 50,075,292 | Form |
| 9 | Goldstein, Robert L | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 1087.29 | 54,190 | 58,920,187 | 55,971,938 | Form |
| 10 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 1125.00 | 20,000 | 22,500,000 | 69,631,132 | Form |
| 11 | Small, Martin | CFO & Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 1212026 | 1171.14 | 27,047 | 31,675,813 | 12,364,207 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 9, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parkside Financial Bank & Trust | $237.0 Mil | 18.2% | 4119 | Hold | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $525.2 Mil | 9.2% | 18 | TRIM -21.4% | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $876.8 Mil | 7.4% | 50 | ADD +10.5% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 3.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $9.9 Mil | 3.6% | 15 | ADD +10.1% | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $18.9 Mil | 3.4% | 43 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $21.4 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $28.3 Mil | 0.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unisphere Establishment | $876.8 Mil | 7.4% | 50 | ADD +10.5% | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $525.2 Mil | 9.2% | 18 | TRIM -21.4% | 13F |
| Parkside Financial Bank & Trust | $237.0 Mil | 18.2% | 4119 | Hold | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $28.3 Mil | 0.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $21.4 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $18.9 Mil | 3.4% | 43 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 3.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $9.9 Mil | 3.6% | 15 | ADD +10.1% | 13F |
BLK Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as BlackRock's pivot to an integrated private markets and technology platform is yielding tangible results. Accelerating organic base fee growth of 11% and Q3 net inflows of $205 billion confirm the strategy is capturing higher-value business. This successful execution is creating a more durable, higher-margin earnings engine at massive scale.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Asset-Gathering & Subscription Hybrid(Assets Under Management x Effective Fee Rate) + Technology Subscription Fees Operating leverage on a massive, growing AUM base, combined with a mix shift towards higher-margin private markets and technology services revenue.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. The strategy is delivering accelerating, high-quality growth, driving a favorable business mix shift.
- Organic base fee growth accelerated to 11% in Q3, the 9th straight quarter above 5%.
- Q3 net inflows were $205 billion, with year-to-date flows up over 45% from last year.
- Fee rates on new inflows are 'well above the firm's blended effective fee rate'.
- Technology services revenue grew 14% year-over-year, with ACV up 12%.
- The firm is executing large deals, like a $14 billion data center financing with Meta.
PRIMARY RISK
The recent slowdown in quarterly revenue growth to 19.1% from 30.6% could signal that the post-acquisition growth surge is fading and that high-fee alternative assets are vulnerable to a market downturn.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth of 19.1% was a slowdown from 30.6% in the prior quarter.
- Institutional index products saw net outflows of $27 billion in Q3.
- The cash-conversion ratio is low at 0.76, potentially indicating lower quality earnings.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 34.5% remains below the 5-year peak of 38.9%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Net Inflows | $205 billion for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Net inflows show strong accelerating momentum, with each quarter of 2026 building on the last. The CEO noted the first half of the year was the strongest on record, and the third quarter has continued this trend. This indicates robust and increasing client demand for BlackRock's products. |
| Organic Base Fee Growth | 11% for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Organic base fee growth, which measures the revenue impact from net flows, is accelerating faster than asset flows. This signals a favorable shift in business mix toward higher-fee products. The CFO highlighted that this marks the ninth consecutive quarter at or above the company's 5% long-term target. |
| Assets Under Management (AUM) | $15.5 trillion (as of 9/30/2026) | The primary driver of asset-based fee revenue. Growth in AUM through net inflows and market appreciation directly translates to potential revenue growth. |
| Annual Contract Value (ACV) | Increased 12% year-over-year (Q3 2026) | Market rewards The company's long-term commitment is for low- to mid-teens ACV growth.. Represents the forward-looking annualized value of recurring subscription fees for the Technology Services segment, providing high visibility into that segment's future revenue. |
Structural Mix Shift vs. Cyclical Deceleration
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on accelerating organic base fee growth of 11% as proof of a successful, structural shift to higher-margin private markets and technology, creating a more durable earnings stream.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating organic base fee growth (11%) overcome the headline revenue growth deceleration (19.1%), which the market has so far rewarded?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's positive 5.0% reaction to Q3 earnings suggests investors are prioritizing the high-quality, accelerating organic growth over the headline slowdown.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the slowdown in latest-quarter revenue growth to 19.1% as a leading indicator of a cyclical peak, arguing the law of large numbers will inevitably curb growth at a $15.5 trillion firm.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
for the fourth quarter of 2026 | Tax Rate Guidance Watch: Company projects an as-adjusted tax run rate of approximately 25%. |
1/11/2027 | Peer Group Weakness Watch: Commentary from STT or BNY on fee pressure, institutional outflows, or a slowdown in client activity. |
1/13/2027 | Growth Deceleration Concern Watch: Whether Q4 revenue growth re-accelerates sequentially, and if organic base fee growth remains in the double-digit range. |
1/14/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Morgan Stanley (MS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/14/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
March 2027 | Debt Note Maturity Watch: |
No set date | Private Markets Headwinds Watch: News of significant write-downs, defaults, or redemption gates in major private credit funds, either at BlackRock or peers. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-21 | New Robotics ETF Launched Details: BlackRock launched the iShares Future Robotics and Related Technologies Active ETF (RBTX), an actively managed strategy focused on the robotics value chain. | +0.8% $1128.68 -> $1137.29 |
2026-10-14 | Strong Q3 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported third quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with $205 billion of net inflows. The stock reacted positively, rising 5.0% over two days. | +5.1% $1066.12 -> $1120.78 |
2026-09-16 | LifePath Solutions Launched Details: BlackRock launched LifePath® Solutions, a customizable target date design framework to broaden access to sophisticated retirement plan capabilities. | -0.4% $1058.66 -> $1053.96 |
2026-07-29 | Securities Investigation Announced Details: A law firm announced an investigation of potential securities claims on behalf of investors in BlackRock, Inc. mutual funds, alleging potentially misleading business information. | +0.1% $1091.95 -> $1092.76 |
2026-07-15 | Positive Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of 6.0% around the earnings call dated 2026-07-15, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.0% move. | +6.0% $1020.20 -> $1081.50 |
2026-06-03 | Fiduciary Duty Investigation Details: A law firm announced an investigation into whether certain officers and directors of BlackRock TCP Capital Corp breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders. | +0.4% $1008.08 -> $1011.64 |
2026-05-20 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $5.73 per share of common stock. | +2.6% $1025.23 -> $1052.39 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BLK trades at roughly 23% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MS - Morgan Stanley
Wealth Management LeaderMorgan Stanley offers more direct exposure to the high-net-worth wealth management channel, which can provide a different and potentially more stable source of asset gathering and fee revenue.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase
Diversified Financial SupermarketJPMorgan Chase provides immense diversification across investment banking, commercial banking, and consumer finance, offering a more defensive posture against risks specific to the asset management industry.
BlackRock is a capital markets utility, leveraging its immense scale and integrated technology platform to capture fees from nearly every major flow of money, from public ETFs to private infrastructure deals.
BlackRock's strategy is to be the essential partner for clients' 'whole portfolio,' combining public and private market capabilities. The firm is capitalizing on structural growth trends in ETFs, private markets (especially infrastructure and credit), and technology. Recent acquisitions like GIP and HPS are being integrated to create a flywheel effect, where origination in one area feeds opportunities in another, driving durable, high-margin growth.
Sustained net inflows, particularly into higher-fee private markets and active ETFs; continued double-digit ACV growth for Aladdin; and announcements of large-scale financing deals for infrastructure or AI build-outs.
A prolonged period of net outflows, significant margin compression, major regulatory actions that curtail its scale advantage, or a failure to successfully integrate and grow its private markets acquisitions.
Short-term AUM fluctuations due to market volatility that do not reflect underlying client flow trends; quarterly performance fee volatility.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the accelerating earnings power from the successful integration of HPS and GIP, which is expanding BlackRock's footprint in the high-growth private markets and creating new, large-scale financing opportunities.
Equity
$9.4B TTM (35% of Total)What It Is
Manages equity portfolios for institutional and retail clients through various products, including iShares ETFs, mutual funds, and separate accounts.
Who Pays & How
Retail and institutional investors pay fees based on the value of their equity assets managed by BlackRock to gain exposure to global stock markets, either through index-tracking (beta) or active (alpha-seeking) strategies.
Competition
Fixed Income
$3.8B TTM (14% of Total)What It Is
Manages fixed income portfolios for institutional and retail clients across active, index, and ETF strategies.
Who Pays & How
Investors pay AUM-based fees to access diversified bond portfolios for income generation and risk management. Clients are currently attracted to higher yields and the ability to lock in income.
Competition
Alternatives
$3.4B TTM (12% of Total)What It Is
Offers private markets (private credit, infrastructure, private equity, real estate) and liquid alternatives (hedge funds) to institutional and wealth clients.
Who Pays & How
Investors pay management and performance fees to access high-alpha investments with lower correlation to public markets. Demand is driven by a search for yield, diversification, and opportunities in areas like AI infrastructure.
Competition
Technology Services and Subscription
$2.1B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
Provides the Aladdin investment and risk management platform, along with eFront, Preqin, and other solutions, to institutional investors, asset managers, and wealth managers.
Who Pays & How
Clients pay subscription fees for an integrated technology platform to manage their portfolios, analyze risk, and gain transparency across public and private assets.
Competition
Investment Advisory Performance Fees
$1.8B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
Earns performance-based fees from certain actively managed funds and separate accounts across asset classes, particularly alternatives.
Who Pays & How
Clients with performance-fee arrangements pay these fees when BlackRock's investment performance exceeds a contractual threshold.
Competition
Cash Management
$1.3B TTM (5% of Total)What It Is
Provides money market funds, short-term investment funds, and customized separate accounts to institutional and retail clients.
Who Pays & How
Clients pay AUM-based fees for liquidity management solutions, seeking safety and yield on their cash balances.
Competition
BlackRock — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks Resources |
| Pensions & Investments |
| Institutional Investor |
| Ignites |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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