Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (9/10/2026): $72.24 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (9/10/2026): $72.24
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 10%

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27%

Key risks
AGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 10%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.3 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27%
8 Key risks
AGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more.

AGO in ETFs

Weight = AGO's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.00%
IJR0.17%
VIG0.01%
VYM0.01%
VB0.04%
AVUV0.27%
+16 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 9/1/2026

Assured Guaranty (AGO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Miss and Increased Expected Losses.

Assured Guaranty reported adjusted operating income of $1.23 per share in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), missing analyst estimates ranging from $1.53 to $1.60 per share. Revenue for the quarter was $195 million, a 30.6% year-over-year decline from $281 million in the prior year's comparable quarter, and also fell short of analyst expectations of $200.3 million. This earnings miss was compounded by an increase in net expected portfolio losses, which rose to $192 million at June 30, 2026, from $101 million at December 31, 2025.

2. Robust New Business Production and Record Valuation Metrics.

Despite the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings disappointment, Assured Guaranty demonstrated underlying business strength, reporting a 48% increase in present value of new business production (PVP) to $152 million for the first half of fiscal 2026 compared to the same period in the prior year. The company also achieved record valuation metrics, with adjusted book value per share reaching an all-time high of $189.72 as of June 30, 2026.

Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026

Assured Guaranty (AGO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Miss and Increased Expected Losses.

Assured Guaranty reported adjusted operating income of $1.23 per share in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), missing analyst estimates ranging from $1.53 to $1.60 per share. Revenue for the quarter was $195 million, a 30.6% year-over-year decline from $281 million in the prior year's comparable quarter, and also fell short of analyst expectations of $200.3 million. This earnings miss was compounded by an increase in net expected portfolio losses, which rose to $192 million at June 30, 2026, from $101 million at December 31, 2025.

2. Robust New Business Production and Record Valuation Metrics.

Despite the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings disappointment, Assured Guaranty demonstrated underlying business strength, reporting a 48% increase in present value of new business production (PVP) to $152 million for the first half of fiscal 2026 compared to the same period in the prior year. The company also achieved record valuation metrics, with adjusted book value per share reaching an all-time high of $189.72 as of June 30, 2026.

3. Consistent Share Repurchases and Dividend Payouts.

Assured Guaranty continued its commitment to shareholder returns by repurchasing $45 million worth of shares and distributing $17 million in dividends during fiscal Q2 2026, totaling $62 million returned to shareholders. This ongoing capital management strategy, which included repurchasing 1.4 million shares for $120 million in the first six months of fiscal 2026, likely provided support for the stock price.

4. Mixed Analyst Sentiment with Downward Revenue Revisions.

While several analysts maintained a "Buy" or "Hold" consensus rating with an average price target of $90.33, implying a potential upside of over 20% from current levels, the fiscal Q2 2026 results prompted significant revisions. Some analysts slashed their full-year 2026 revenue estimates by as much as 13%, contributing to a cautious outlook and limiting upward stock movement despite the long-term positive price targets.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -2.2% change in AGO stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120269092026Change
Stock Price ($)73.8472.21-2.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)947871-8.0%
Net Income Margin (%)43.8%40.3%-8.0%
P/E Multiple8.09.114.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)45441.4%
Cumulative Contribution-2.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AGO-2.2% 
Market (SPY)0.8%-18.1%
Sector (XLF)10.6%43.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -15.0% change in AGO stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820269092026Change
Stock Price ($)84.9772.21-15.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,015871-14.2%
Net Income Margin (%)49.6%40.3%-18.7%
P/E Multiple7.89.117.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)46443.8%
Cumulative Contribution-15.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AGO-15.0% 
Market (SPY)11.4%2.2%
Sector (XLF)11.5%40.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.5% change in AGO stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120259092026Change
Stock Price ($)80.7172.21-10.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,007871-13.5%
Net Income Margin (%)46.5%40.3%-13.3%
P/E Multiple8.49.18.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)494410.4%
Cumulative Contribution-10.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AGO-10.5% 
Market (SPY)19.2%6.6%
Sector (XLF)7.0%43.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 28.9% change in AGO stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120239092026Change
Stock Price ($)56.0072.2128.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)914871-4.7%
Net Income Margin (%)34.0%40.3%18.4%
P/E Multiple10.79.1-14.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)594433.6%
Cumulative Contribution28.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AGO28.9% 
Market (SPY)75.3%34.2%
Sector (XLF)73.4%54.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AGO Return62%26%23%22%1%-18%156%
Peers Return19%7%21%15%21%0%115%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGO Win Rate58%58%67%50%42%44% 
Peers Win Rate52%53%62%57%62%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGO Max Drawdown-19%-28%-26%-22%-19%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-26%-19%-15%-16%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MTG, ESNT, WTM, BHF, CB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAGOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-16.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.2%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven235 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-25.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.8%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven133 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-57.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven137.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven343 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-14.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven67 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-16.9%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven71 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-14.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven25 days15 days

Compare to MTG, ESNT, WTM, BHF, CB

In The Past

Assured Guaranty's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAGOS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-25.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.8%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven133 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-57.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven137.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven343 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-33.6%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.7%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven153 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-45.7%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven84.2%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven1041 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-89.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven818.6%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1821 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-20.9%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.5%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven53 days47 days

Compare to MTG, ESNT, WTM, BHF, CB

In The Past

Assured Guaranty's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a financial services company primarily engaged in providing credit protection products. Its core business involves offering financial guaranty insurance, which is designed to protect holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults on scheduled payments. This insurance effectively safeguards investors, ensuring they receive their principal and interest even if the original issuer experiences financial distress or defaults.

The company serves a wide array of markets, focusing on public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance both within the United States and internationally. In the U.S., Assured Guaranty insures various public finance obligations, including municipal bonds issued by state and local government authorities for sectors such as general obligation, utilities, transportation, healthcare, and education. Globally, it extends protection to non-U.S. public finance obligations like regulated utilities and infrastructure projects. Additionally, the company is active in structured finance, insuring obligations such as residential mortgage-backed securities, consumer receivables, and pooled corporate obligations.

Beyond its primary financial guaranty insurance business, Assured Guaranty also operates an Asset Management segment, providing investment advisory services. These services include the management of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and various opportunity and liquid strategy funds. The company directly markets its financial guaranty insurance to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in these obligations, positioning itself as a key partner in mitigating credit risk across diverse financial markets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

1. It's like an insurance company, similar to AIG, but instead of insuring cars or homes, they primarily insure government and infrastructure bonds, guaranteeing payments to investors.

2. If companies like S&P and Moody's *rate* the safety of bonds, Assured Guaranty *insures* them, effectively guaranteeing payments to investors even if the original issuer defaults.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Financial Guaranty Insurance: Provides credit protection by insuring various debt obligations, including public finance bonds (US and non-US) and structured finance securities, against defaults in scheduled payments.
  • Specialty Insurance and Reinsurance: Offers niche insurance products such as life insurance and aircraft residual value insurance transactions.
  • Asset Management Services: Provides investment advisory services, including the management of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), opportunity funds, and liquid strategy funds.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Assured Guaranty (AGO) sells primarily to other companies and entities within the public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The provided background information describes its customer base in terms of broad categories of market participants rather than identifying specific "major customer companies" by name. Assured Guaranty's business model involves insuring a wide variety of debt obligations, meaning its customer base is highly diversified across numerous issuers, underwriters, and investors. Based on the company description, its major customers can be categorized as:
  1. Issuers of Public Finance and Structured Finance Securities: These are the entities that issue the debt obligations which Assured Guaranty insures. This category includes a broad range of entities such as U.S. state and local governmental authorities, municipal utility districts, transportation authorities, healthcare providers, higher education institutions, and entities that issue various structured finance products (e.g., residential mortgage-backed securities, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations). While some structured finance issuers might be public companies, public finance issuers are typically governmental or quasi-governmental bodies without public stock symbols.
  2. Underwriters of Public Finance and Structured Finance Securities: These are investment banks and other financial institutions that facilitate the issuance and sale of debt instruments. They utilize Assured Guaranty's insurance to enhance the credit profile of the securities they underwrite, making them more attractive to investors. Many major underwriters operate as publicly traded financial companies (e.g., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Bank of America Corporation), though specific named underwriters are not provided as major customers in the background text.
  3. Investors in Public Finance and Structured Finance Obligations: This category includes institutional investors (such as pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies) that purchase debt instruments. They seek Assured Guaranty's insurance for protection against defaults in scheduled payments, thereby enhancing the safety and stability of their investments. Many large institutional investors are publicly traded companies, but specific named investors are not identified as major customers in the provided background.

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  • S&P Global (SPGI)
  • Moody's Corporation (MCO)

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Dominic J. Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer

Dominic J. Frederico has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since December 2003 and has been a director since its 2004 initial public offering. Under his leadership, Assured Guaranty became a leading provider of municipal bond insurance and financial guarantees. He led the company's initial public offering in 2004 and, in 2009, oversaw the acquisition of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp., which merged the only two monoline bond insurers to continue writing policies through the 2008 financial crisis. He also led the acquisition of other legacy financial guaranty insurance companies and their portfolios. Mr. Frederico is currently leading Assured Guaranty's strategic expansion into alternative asset management.

Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, he served as Vice Chair of ACE Limited (now Chubb Limited) from 2003 until 2004 and as President and Chief Operating Officer of ACE Limited and Chair of ACE INA Holdings, Inc. from 1999 to 2003. During his tenure at ACE Limited, he oversaw the acquisition and integration of the domestic and international property casualty operations acquired by ACE from CIGNA Corporation and the acquisition of Capital Re Corp., which was a predecessor company to Assured Guaranty. Before ACE Limited, Mr. Frederico spent 13 years with various subsidiaries of the American International Group, with his last position being Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AIG Risk Management.

Benjamin G. Rosenblum, Chief Financial Officer

Benjamin G. Rosenblum was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and certain of its subsidiaries as of January 1, 2024. He previously served as Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from 2021 through December 2023, and as Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and Assured Guaranty Inc. since 2010. Mr. Rosenblum joined Assured Guaranty in 2004, initially responsible for the loss reserve function at Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. and Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. In 2015, he was named Senior Managing Director in charge of Insurance Accounting and Financial Reporting. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, Mr. Rosenblum worked for nearly ten years as an actuary in the insurance industry, focusing on loss reserving and developing actuarial systems and financial projections. He has been instrumental in the company's risk analysis, loss projection, and reserve calculations during significant challenges such as the 2008 financial crisis, the integration of AGM in 2009, and the defaults of Detroit and Puerto Rico.

Robert A. Bailenson, Chief Operating Officer

Robert A. Bailenson was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and certain of its subsidiaries as of January 1, 2024. He previously served as Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from June 2011 through December 2023. Mr. Bailenson has been with Assured Guaranty and its predecessor companies since 1990. His prior leadership positions include Managing Director and Chief Accounting Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from March 2005 to June 2011, Chief Accounting Officer of Assured Guaranty Corp. from October 2003 to March 2005, and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. from 1999 until 2003. He was Assistant Controller of Capital Re Corp., which was acquired by ACE Limited in 1999. Mr. Bailenson was instrumental in significant strategic initiatives, including the initial public offering of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and the acquisition of Financial Security Assurance Inc. (now Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.), as well as other legacy financial guarantors. Before joining Assured Guaranty, he was with Ernst & Young LLP.

Stephen Donnarumma, Chief Credit Officer

Stephen Donnarumma has been the Chief Credit Officer of Assured Guaranty since 2007, and of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) from 2009 until AGM merged into AG in 2024. He joined Assured Guaranty in 1993. Throughout his tenure, he has held various positions, including Managing Director of the Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities Group, Deputy Chief Credit Officer of AGL, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Underwriting Officer of AG Re, and Chief Risk Officer of AG. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, Mr. Donnarumma worked at Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (1989-1993), Fannie Mae (1987-1989), and Moody's Investors Service (1985-1987).

Robert S. Tucker, Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Robert S. Tucker is the Senior Managing Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Assured Guaranty. He is responsible for managing the company's relationships with fixed-income and equity investors, as well as its media relations and communications. Mr. Tucker joined Assured Guaranty in 1996. His previous experience includes serving as Managing Director at Financial Security Assurance and as Vice President & Assistant Director, Public Finance at Moody's Investors Service.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Assured Guaranty's business include economic and market volatility, concentration risk in the U.S. public finance sector, and regulatory and legal risks.

  1. Economic and Market Volatility: Assured Guaranty's business is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and market fluctuations. Changes in interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events can directly impact the demand for its credit enhancement products, the performance of its insured obligations, and the value of its investment portfolio. For instance, low U.S. Treasury yields and compressed credit spreads can reduce the incentive for issuers to purchase financial guaranty insurance, thereby affecting new business premiums.
  2. Concentration Risk in U.S. Public Finance: The company's insured portfolio has a significant concentration in U.S. public finance obligations. As of 2025, approximately 70% of Assured Guaranty's insured par was tied to U.S. municipal credits. This heavy weighting exposes the company to systemic municipal stress; a widespread decline in state or local government revenues could lead to simultaneous defaults, straining the company's capital and financial resources.
  3. Regulatory and Legal Risks: The financial guaranty insurance industry is subject to extensive regulation. Changes in insurance, bankruptcy, or tax laws, as well as new legal or regulatory decisions, can have significant adverse effects on Assured Guaranty. A notable example is the introduction of a corporate income tax in Bermuda, effective from 2025, which could impact the company's future financial results.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in several key markets, with significant addressable opportunities in financial guaranty insurance, structured finance, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and specialty insurance products such as life and aircraft residual value insurance.

Financial Guaranty Insurance

The global financial guarantee market was valued at approximately USD 39.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 87.9 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global market at USD 42.3 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 72.6 billion by 2033. North America is the leading region in this market, holding approximately 60% of the global share, followed by Europe at around 25%, and Asia-Pacific with about 10%.

Within the U.S. public finance sector, where Assured Guaranty is a major provider of municipal bond insurance, the municipal bond insurance volume grew 17.7% in the first three quarters of 2025. The top two municipal bond insurers collectively wrapped over $34.162 billion in Q1-Q3 2025. In 2025, Assured Guaranty itself insured a total of $27 billion of new issue and secondary market par in the U.S., a 11% increase over 2024. The broader global bond market, which forms the underlying asset class for much of financial guaranty insurance, was valued at $133 trillion in 2022 and is projected to expand from USD 143.15 trillion in 2025 to USD 168.85 trillion by 2031. The U.S. bond market alone was valued at over $51 trillion in 2022.

Structured Finance

The global structured finance market, which includes asset-backed securities (ABS), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), is valued at over $2 trillion and is expected to grow steadily. Other estimates for the global structured finance market size include USD 1,026.23 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 1,704.44 billion by 2035, and US$1.4 trillion in 2024, anticipated to grow to US$2.6 trillion by 2030. North America is the leading region in this market, followed by Europe and Asia-Pacific. The U.S. structured finance market was estimated at US$388.8 billion in 2024.

Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

The global collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market reached $1 trillion in 2021. It was valued at US$1.26 trillion in 2022 and is expected to grow to US$2.71 trillion by 2028. More recent data indicates the global CLO market size was $1.6 trillion in 2025, growing to $1.83 trillion in 2026, and is expected to reach $3.07 trillion by 2030. North America held the largest share in the global CLO market in 2025 and is projected to remain dominant.

Specialty Insurance: Life Insurance

Assured Guaranty also offers life insurance as part of its specialty insurance products. The global life insurance market was estimated at USD 7.55 trillion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 18.03 trillion by 2034. Another estimate states the global life insurance market size was $3011.86 billion in 2021, reaching $3541.1 billion by the end of 2025, and projected to become $4894.92 billion by 2033. North America is a significant market, holding 39.35% of the global market revenue in 2025.

Specialty Insurance: Aircraft Residual Value Insurance

The global residual value insurance market size, which includes aircraft residual value insurance, reached USD 4.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to USD 12.6 billion by 2033. This growth is largely driven by the increasing adoption of leasing models in various asset-heavy industries, including aviation. North America leads this market, with approximately USD 1.9 billion in premiums in 2024. Separately, the global aircraft insurance market is expected to climb from $6.5 billion in 2024 to $9.2 billion by 2033, with another source valuing it at USD 15.1 billion in 2023, forecasted to grow to USD 19.2 billion by 2032. The global aviation insurance market was valued at USD 5.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 8.88 billion by 2034. North America dominated the aviation insurance market with a 44.90% market share in 2025.

Infrastructure Finance

While not a direct product in the same way as insurance, Assured Guaranty's financial guaranty products are crucial for public finance and infrastructure projects. The global infrastructure market is valued at approximately USD 2.7 trillion. McKinsey estimates that a cumulative $106 trillion in investment will be necessary through 2040 to meet global needs for new and updated infrastructure. Private participation in infrastructure (PPI) investment globally reached $100.7 billion in 2024. Assets under management in dedicated infrastructure funds have surged to $1.35 trillion and are predicted to grow to $2.3 trillion by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:

  1. Entry into the Annuity Reinsurance Market: Assured Guaranty has strategically entered the annuity reinsurance market through the acquisition of Warwick Re Limited (now Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd.) in January 2026. This move is designed to diversify revenue sources and will focus on fixed-term annuities and pension risk transfer products, offering a new stream of earnings.
  2. Sustained Strength and Demand in Core Financial Guaranty Business: The company anticipates strong results from its financial guaranty product lines, supported by a robust transaction pipeline. Management expects continued leadership in the municipal bond insurance market, with analysts projecting modestly higher bond insurance penetration rates for 2026 due to anticipated heavy supply and evolving buyer dynamics. Additionally, the global structured finance business has shown significant growth, more than doubling its present value of new business (PVP) in the previous year, and international infrastructure (non-U.S. public finance) also saw increased PVP.
  3. Growing Contributions from Alternative Investments: Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly material contributor to the company's adjusted operating income. These investments surpassed $1 billion in fair value by year-end 2025 and generated substantial pre-tax adjusted operating income, with the company aiming to improve overall investment returns by increasing its allocation to alternative investments.
  4. International Expansion in Financial Guaranty: Assured Guaranty is actively pursuing international expansion by establishing new offices in regions like Australia and Singapore, and exploring opportunities in Continental Europe and Asia. This geographic diversification is crucial for expanding its customer base and diversifying revenue streams beyond its traditional U.S. public finance market.

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Share Repurchases

  • Assured Guaranty repurchased $500 million of its shares in 2025, representing 12% of common shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024.
  • In 2025, the Board authorized additional share repurchases of $400 million, with a target of $500 million per year.
  • As of February 27, 2026, the remaining share repurchase authorization was $204 million.

Outbound Investments

  • In January 2026, Assured Guaranty acquired Warwick Re Limited for $158 million, renaming it Assured Life Reinsurance Limited, to expand into the life and annuity reinsurance market.
  • The company maintains a 30% ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management and has committed up to $1 billion to Sound Point-managed alternative investments.

Peer Outperformance in Property & Casualty Insurance

AGO has outperformed 51% of its 41 Property & Casualty Insurance peers over 5Y. Property & Casualty Insurance ranks 7th of 18 industries in Financials by median 5Y return.
Share of Property & Casualty Insurance constituents that AGO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
16%
of 45 industry peers · -10.4% return
3Y
21%
of 42 industry peers · 27.2% return
5Y
51%
of 41 industry peers · 68.2% return
No Property & Casualty Insurance peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AGO by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Financials sector, ranked by 5Y. Property & Casualty Insurance is AGO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Investment Banking & Brokerage 13 8.0%129.9%143.7% IBKR 491% · SNEX 254% · GS 188%
Reinsurance 6 20.6%74.0%129.1% SPNT 174% · RGA 136% · MTG 130%
Diversified Banks 12 35.9%134.9%119.5% JPM 155% · CM 152% · RY 142%
Life & Health Insurance 20 9.1%54.5%100.4% JXN 544% · UNM 320% · FG 214%
Multi-Sector Holdings 4 3.5%62.0%83.8% JONE 364% · JEF 85% · BRK-B 83%
Regional Banks 264 25.3%84.6%66.9% GCBC 365% · ESQ 354% · VBNK 314%
Property & Casualty Insurance ← 42 10.5%73.5%66.0% ASIC 2712900% · HRTG 446% · UVE 299%
Multi-line Insurance 9 9.8%85.3%59.9% GNW 206% · L 107% · SLF 88%
Consumer Finance 30 8.8%86.1%31.1% ENVA 600% · EZPW 397% · FCFS 176%
Financial Exchanges & Data 15 -5.8%15.5%23.8% VIRT 219% · CBOE 147% · CME 79%
Diversified Financial Services 4 -0.6%9.7%20.5% FRHC 166% · EQH 100% · TMS -59%
Insurance Brokers 16 -16.1%-2.9%19.2% LIFE 625% · ARX 89% · AJG 79%
Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance 13 -42.6%32.4%18.5% FNMA 503% · FMCC 465% · ESNT 69%
Asset Management & Custody Banks 84 -11.6%15.2%13.5% WT 327% · VCTR 290% · SII 281%
Specialized Finance 3 15.1%46.5%-0.7% EFC 35% · CACC -1% · HASI -12%
Mortgage REITs 33 -10.0%11.7%-12.3% LFT 234% · NREF 52% · RITM 50%
Diversified Capital Markets 21 -25.8%-7.2%-37.5% BTCS 579% · OPY 212% · LPLA 148%
Transaction & Payment Processing Services 15 -1.1%-5.5%-45.1% V 70% · MA 68% · CPAY 56%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFCBMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Chubb  
Mkt Price72.2130.8768.572,050.8151.15337.6270.39
Mkt Cap3.26.56.24.92.9130.85.6
Rev LTM8711,1961,3372,9816,35162,2772,159
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM324706826388-53815,376547
FCF 3Y Avg187731829453-6414,847592
CFO LTM324708834388-53815,376548
CFO 3Y Avg187732839453-6414,847593

Growth & Margins

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFCBMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Chubb  
Rev Chg LTM-13.5%-1.9%4.3%15.6%3.3%8.5%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.5%1.0%9.5%20.2%37.7%10.4%9.9%
Rev Chg Q-27.3%-2.9%13.6%22.5%103.8%7.2%10.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-8.0%-0.7%3.4%5.5%14.8%1.8%2.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM-------
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM37.2%59.2%62.4%13.0%-8.5%24.7%30.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.3%61.1%65.3%17.7%0.0%25.8%23.0%
FCF/Rev LTM37.2%59.1%61.8%13.0%-8.5%24.7%30.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.3%61.0%64.6%17.7%0.0%25.8%23.0%

Valuation

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFCBMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Chubb  
Mkt Cap3.26.56.24.92.9130.85.6
P/S3.75.44.71.70.52.12.9
P/Op Inc-------
P/EBIT6.47.07.33.52.68.76.7
P/E9.19.29.14.43.511.79.1
P/CFO9.99.27.512.7-5.58.58.8
Total Yield13.1%13.0%12.9%22.8%28.2%9.7%13.0%
Dividend Yield2.1%2.1%2.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%12.0%13.9%9.7%-0.7%12.8%10.9%
D/E0.50.10.10.21.10.10.2
Net D/E-0.2-0.8-0.9-0.0-29.1-0.2-0.5

Returns

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFCBMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Chubb  
1M Rtn-4.4%2.0%1.9%-2.8%-14.9%-3.1%-2.9%
3M Rtn-4.5%20.7%17.2%1.6%-18.9%2.4%2.0%
6M Rtn-13.4%20.6%21.2%-7.3%-15.1%5.2%-1.0%
12M Rtn-10.4%11.7%11.2%14.3%4.8%23.4%11.5%
3Y Rtn27.2%89.9%47.1%36.0%2.9%71.8%41.6%
1M Excs Rtn-2.9%3.5%3.4%-1.3%-13.4%-1.6%-1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-7.1%18.1%15.9%-1.1%-21.9%0.8%-0.1%
6M Excs Rtn-26.7%5.7%7.0%-20.4%-27.7%-8.2%-14.3%
12M Excs Rtn-27.8%-6.5%-7.7%-1.5%0.3%5.7%-4.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-44.0%16.6%-25.3%-40.1%-69.1%3.8%-32.7%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Financial Guaranty870821855757733
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives6913104  
Other63386114142
Asset Management29107611283
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)20-10-35  
Corporate division141727542
Realized gains (losses) on investments-409-14  
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and loss adjustment -2651  
Total1,0258721,373887960


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Financial Guaranty508525621413722
Asset Management2053-6-19
Other6-6-21-630
Corporate division-89-13545-134-263
Total445389648267470


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$72.21 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.2 
First Trading Date04/23/2004 
Distance from 52W High-20.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$79.39$81.85
DMA Trendindeterminateindeterminate
Distance from DMA-9.0%-11.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility25.8%23.6%
Downside Capture-28.7616.19
Upside Capture-42.990.19
Correlation (SPY)-14.2%5.7%
AGO Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.06-0.26-0.45-0.000.100.54
Up Beta-0.21-0.33-0.110.240.190.56
Down Beta1.650.50-0.41-0.070.110.65
Up Capture-84%-64%-47%-16%0%18%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days7152759118385
Down Capture107%-12%-76%8%16%70%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days14273768131361

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AGO
AGO-10.3%23.5%-0.52-
Sector ETF (XLF)8.8%14.6%0.3543.1%
Equity (SPY)18.6%12.8%1.066.0%
Gold (GLD)20.6%29.2%0.64-7.4%
Commodities (DBC)46.3%20.4%1.76-14.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.3%13.6%0.2734.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.8%43.8%-0.683.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AGO
AGO9.6%27.3%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLF)10.1%18.4%0.4161.3%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5545.8%
Gold (GLD)18.9%18.8%0.82-4.2%
Commodities (DBC)11.1%19.5%0.448.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.2%18.9%-0.0442.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.8%52.6%0.3919.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AGO
AGO12.2%34.0%0.43-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.2%22.1%0.5466.8%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7252.4%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.3%0.62-2.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.1%18.1%0.3717.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1951.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.6%66.2%1.0310.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8142026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 731202613.8%
Average Daily Volume0.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity44.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2026-8.6%-7.8%-7.9%
5/7/2026-9.0%-7.6%-8.8%
2/26/2026-0.5%0.1%-8.1%
11/6/20256.5%7.5%8.9%
8/7/2025-3.0%-2.3%-2.6%
5/8/2025-1.2%-2.2%-4.7%
2/27/2025-5.3%-7.8%-5.0%
11/12/20242.1%2.7%1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13912
# Negative121613
Median Positive2.1%3.8%5.3%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.2%-5.0%
Max Positive14.9%15.9%15.6%
Max Negative-14.9%-9.2%-14.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2026-8.6%-7.8%-7.9%
5/7/2026-9.0%-7.6%-8.8%
2/26/2026-0.5%0.1%-8.1%
11/6/20256.5%7.5%8.9%
8/7/2025-3.0%-2.3%-2.6%
5/8/2025-1.2%-2.2%-4.7%
2/27/2025-5.3%-7.8%-5.0%
11/12/20242.1%2.7%1.0%
8/7/2024-2.4%-1.5%2.6%
5/7/20244.7%-0.7%-0.7%
2/27/202410.9%6.4%2.3%
11/7/20232.4%3.7%6.5%
8/8/2023-2.9%-5.3%-4.3%
5/9/20230.2%-0.4%3.0%
3/20/20232.0%-2.3%11.4%
11/7/20221.2%1.6%7.9%
8/3/2022-14.9%-7.8%-13.3%
5/5/20221.5%-4.4%4.0%
2/24/202213.2%8.2%15.6%
11/4/2021-1.9%-5.2%-14.1%
8/5/20210.9%3.8%-1.1%
5/6/2021-4.9%-9.2%-7.5%
2/25/20210.9%-1.4%-2.3%
11/6/202014.9%15.9%13.9%
9/1/2020-0.4%-4.0%2.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13912
# Negative121613
Median Positive2.1%3.8%5.3%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.2%-5.0%
Max Positive14.9%15.9%15.6%
Max Negative-14.9%-9.2%-14.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202605/08/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/09/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/07/202610-Q
03/31/202605/08/202610-Q
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/09/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/06/202110-Q
03/31/202105/07/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/07/202010-Q
03/31/202005/08/202010-Q
12/31/201902/28/202010-K
09/30/201911/08/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 8/7/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Share Repurchases AuthorizationReported 121.00 Mil    

null

Insider Activity

Updated 8/21/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Radtke, LorinDirectSell601202674.321,04777,813691,696Form
2Bailenson, RobertChief Operating OfficerDirectSell512202678.6250,0003,930,76520,145,254Form
3Borges, Francisco LDirectSell331202680.22123,7509,927,22514,195,089Form
4Frederico, DominicPresident/CEO/Deputy ChairmanDirectSell323202681.0620,0021,621,362104,915,391Form
5Radtke, LorinDirectSell305202687.141,219106,224723,001Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Radtke, LorinDirectSell601202674.321,04777,813691,696Form
2Bailenson, RobertChief Operating OfficerDirectSell512202678.6250,0003,930,76520,145,254Form
3Borges, Francisco LDirectSell331202680.22123,7509,927,22514,195,089Form
4Frederico, DominicPresident/CEO/Deputy ChairmanDirectSell323202681.0620,0021,621,362104,915,391Form
5Radtke, LorinDirectSell305202687.141,219106,224723,001Form
6Frederico, DominicPresident/CEO/Deputy ChairmanDirectSell924202583.8325,0002,095,750107,956,526Form
7Bailenson, RobertChief Operating OfficerDirectSell812202581.5140,0003,260,40023,778,756Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/9/2026