Tearsheet

Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $88.855 | Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $88.855
Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -15%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the approximate 8.5% movement in Assured Guaranty (AGO) stock around the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Assured Guaranty reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 6, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.57, significantly surpassing the consensus analyst estimate of $1.54. The company's revenue of $207.00 million also exceeded analyst expectations of $196.76 million. This substantial beat likely fueled positive investor sentiment.

2. Positive Technical Indicator ("Golden Cross"): As of December 3, 2025, Assured Guaranty's stock experienced a "golden cross," a bullish technical chart pattern where its 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. This indicator often signals a potential upward trend and strong buying momentum, contributing to the stock's rally.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGO Return-34%62%26%23%22%1%104%
Peers Return-0%16%9%25%20%15%119%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGO Win Rate42%58%58%67%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%50%62%58%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGO Max Drawdown-60%-2%-7%-25%-1%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-5%-14%-10%-6%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MTG, ESNT, WTM, BHF, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven244 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven401 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven450 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven942.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2797 days1480 days

Compare to MTG, ESNT, WTM, BHF, PGR


In The Past

Assured Guaranty's stock fell -30.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.6% loss requires a 44.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Better Bets than Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Assured Guaranty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFPGRMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Progress. 
Mkt Price88.8328.2861.882,025.5565.59227.1877.21
Mkt Cap4.26.56.05.13.8133.25.6
Rev LTM9541,2161,2902,4896,15082,3761,890
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2668038375615116,472682
FCF 3Y Avg32741798565-49012,350653
CFO LTM2668048545615116,800683
CFO 3Y Avg32742808565-49012,634654

Growth & Margins

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFPGRMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Progress. 
Rev Chg LTM2.5%2.2%2.1%-8.9%61.5%21.5%2.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg25.8%1.2%8.2%42.6%15.2%20.0%17.6%
Rev Chg Q-21.0%-0.7%-1.3%-9.4%-40.6%21.3%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.3%-0.2%-0.3%-3.5%-8.1%4.9%-1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM27.9%66.1%66.2%22.5%0.8%20.4%25.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%62.3%67.1%24.7%-20.7%18.0%21.3%
FCF/Rev LTM27.9%66.1%64.8%22.5%0.8%20.0%25.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%62.2%66.4%24.7%-20.7%17.6%21.1%

Valuation

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFPGRMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Progress. 
Mkt Cap4.26.56.05.13.8133.25.6
P/S4.25.34.81.70.51.93.1
P/EBIT6.56.67.211.33.411.76.9
P/E10.08.68.830.34.615.09.4
P/CFO15.18.17.37.660.59.38.7
Total Yield10.0%13.6%13.3%3.4%21.5%8.5%11.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.0%2.0%0.1%0.0%1.8%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.3%12.7%13.4%13.8%-14.9%10.3%11.5%
D/E0.40.10.10.21.00.00.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.8-0.9-0.2-27.3-0.0-0.5

Returns

AGOMTGESNTWTMBHFPGRMedian
NameAssured .MGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Brightho.Progress. 
1M Rtn9.6%2.7%2.1%6.6%22.4%11.5%8.1%
3M Rtn9.1%1.4%-1.2%14.3%46.8%-7.9%5.2%
6M Rtn6.0%9.7%9.0%13.2%12.9%-19.4%9.3%
12M Rtn-2.2%11.4%11.1%2.1%29.1%-11.7%6.6%
3Y Rtn40.8%127.9%66.3%51.6%19.2%76.6%58.9%
1M Excs Rtn9.6%2.7%2.1%6.6%22.5%11.6%8.1%
3M Excs Rtn2.0%-5.4%-7.9%7.2%42.9%-14.1%-1.7%
6M Excs Rtn-8.7%-5.0%-5.7%-1.5%-1.8%-34.1%-5.4%
12M Excs Rtn-16.8%-3.6%-3.7%-12.7%11.9%-27.3%-8.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-26.9%53.6%-2.5%-30.2%-51.4%7.2%-14.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance855757733874917
Corporate division2754293
Asset Management76112836622
Other61141424022
Total1,267887960989964


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance621413722  
Corporate division45-134-263  
Asset Management3-6-19  
Other-21-630  
Total648267470  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,148,486
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-9.1%
Average Daily Volume370,259
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.10
Basic Shares Quantity47,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021