Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $81.7 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $81.7Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 6.9% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Key risksAGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Key risksAGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Macroeconomic Headwinds from Geopolitical Conflict and Inflation.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict, starting in late February 2026, particularly with the United States and Israel striking Iran, significantly contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in global financial markets. This geopolitical event drove a substantial increase in oil prices, rising between 50% and 60% during March, which in turn fueled renewed inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9% in March after a 0.3% rise in February, with the energy index alone surging 10.9% in March due to a 21.2% increase in gasoline. This uncertain global economic environment, marked by rising inflation and questions about future monetary policy, generally led to a more cautious investment outlook across various sectors, including financials.
2. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
Assured Guaranty experienced notable insider selling activity during the specified period. Francisco Borges, the Independent Chairman of the Board, executed two substantial sales: 123,750 shares for approximately $9.93 million on March 31, 2026, and another 123,750 shares for about $10.07 million on March 30, 2026. Cumulatively, insiders sold approximately 174,969 shares valued at $14.1 million over the past 90 days. Such considerable sales by key company figures can be perceived by the market as a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects or current valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.3% change in AGO stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.48 | 81.70 | -3.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 954 | 1,015 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 42.1% | 49.6% | 17.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 7.5 | -25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 46 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGO | -3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 46.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -3.0% | 58.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.2% change in AGO stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.92 | 81.70 | 2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,007 | 1,015 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.5% | 49.6% | 6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.4 | 7.5 | -10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 46 | 6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGO | 2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 25.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.7% | 51.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in AGO stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.31 | 81.70 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 824 | 1,015 | 23.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.6% | 49.6% | 8.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 7.5 | -36.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 46 | 10.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGO | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 7.4% | 52.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.4% change in AGO stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 173.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.27 | 81.70 | 59.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 684 | 1,015 | 48.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.1% | 49.6% | 173.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.8 | 7.5 | -69.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 46 | 30.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGO | 59.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 41.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 63.2% | 58.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGO Return | 62% | 26% | 23% | 22% | 1% | -10% | 181% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 7% | 21% | 15% | 21% | -2% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 6% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGO Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 62% | 57% | 62% | 32% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGO Max Drawdown | -2% | -7% | -25% | -1% | -15% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -15% | -11% | -6% | -8% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ESNT, MTG, WTM, BHF, CB.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.2% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -14.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Assured Guaranty's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.7% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1041 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 818.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1821 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Assured Guaranty's stock fell -16.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 19.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Assured Guaranty (AGO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. It's like an insurance company, similar to AIG, but instead of insuring cars or homes, they primarily insure government and infrastructure bonds, guaranteeing payments to investors.
2. If companies like S&P and Moody's *rate* the safety of bonds, Assured Guaranty *insures* them, effectively guaranteeing payments to investors even if the original issuer defaults.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Financial Guaranty Insurance: Provides credit protection by insuring various debt obligations, including public finance bonds (US and non-US) and structured finance securities, against defaults in scheduled payments.
- Specialty Insurance and Reinsurance: Offers niche insurance products such as life insurance and aircraft residual value insurance transactions.
- Asset Management Services: Provides investment advisory services, including the management of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), opportunity funds, and liquid strategy funds.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Assured Guaranty (AGO) sells primarily to other companies and entities within the public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets. The provided background information describes its customer base in terms of broad categories of market participants rather than identifying specific "major customer companies" by name. Assured Guaranty's business model involves insuring a wide variety of debt obligations, meaning its customer base is highly diversified across numerous issuers, underwriters, and investors. Based on the company description, its major customers can be categorized as:- Issuers of Public Finance and Structured Finance Securities: These are the entities that issue the debt obligations which Assured Guaranty insures. This category includes a broad range of entities such as U.S. state and local governmental authorities, municipal utility districts, transportation authorities, healthcare providers, higher education institutions, and entities that issue various structured finance products (e.g., residential mortgage-backed securities, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations). While some structured finance issuers might be public companies, public finance issuers are typically governmental or quasi-governmental bodies without public stock symbols.
- Underwriters of Public Finance and Structured Finance Securities: These are investment banks and other financial institutions that facilitate the issuance and sale of debt instruments. They utilize Assured Guaranty's insurance to enhance the credit profile of the securities they underwrite, making them more attractive to investors. Many major underwriters operate as publicly traded financial companies (e.g., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Bank of America Corporation), though specific named underwriters are not provided as major customers in the background text.
- Investors in Public Finance and Structured Finance Obligations: This category includes institutional investors (such as pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies) that purchase debt instruments. They seek Assured Guaranty's insurance for protection against defaults in scheduled payments, thereby enhancing the safety and stability of their investments. Many large institutional investors are publicly traded companies, but specific named investors are not identified as major customers in the provided background.
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- S&P Global (SPGI)
- Moody's Corporation (MCO)
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Dominic J. Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer
Dominic J. Frederico has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since December 2003 and has been a director since its 2004 initial public offering. Under his leadership, Assured Guaranty became a leading provider of municipal bond insurance and financial guarantees. He led the company's initial public offering in 2004 and, in 2009, oversaw the acquisition of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp., which merged the only two monoline bond insurers to continue writing policies through the 2008 financial crisis. He also led the acquisition of other legacy financial guaranty insurance companies and their portfolios. Mr. Frederico is currently leading Assured Guaranty's strategic expansion into alternative asset management.
Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, he served as Vice Chair of ACE Limited (now Chubb Limited) from 2003 until 2004 and as President and Chief Operating Officer of ACE Limited and Chair of ACE INA Holdings, Inc. from 1999 to 2003. During his tenure at ACE Limited, he oversaw the acquisition and integration of the domestic and international property casualty operations acquired by ACE from CIGNA Corporation and the acquisition of Capital Re Corp., which was a predecessor company to Assured Guaranty. Before ACE Limited, Mr. Frederico spent 13 years with various subsidiaries of the American International Group, with his last position being Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AIG Risk Management.
Benjamin G. Rosenblum, Chief Financial Officer
Benjamin G. Rosenblum was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and certain of its subsidiaries as of January 1, 2024. He previously served as Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from 2021 through December 2023, and as Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and Assured Guaranty Inc. since 2010. Mr. Rosenblum joined Assured Guaranty in 2004, initially responsible for the loss reserve function at Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. and Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. In 2015, he was named Senior Managing Director in charge of Insurance Accounting and Financial Reporting. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, Mr. Rosenblum worked for nearly ten years as an actuary in the insurance industry, focusing on loss reserving and developing actuarial systems and financial projections. He has been instrumental in the company's risk analysis, loss projection, and reserve calculations during significant challenges such as the 2008 financial crisis, the integration of AGM in 2009, and the defaults of Detroit and Puerto Rico.
Robert A. Bailenson, Chief Operating Officer
Robert A. Bailenson was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and certain of its subsidiaries as of January 1, 2024. He previously served as Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from June 2011 through December 2023. Mr. Bailenson has been with Assured Guaranty and its predecessor companies since 1990. His prior leadership positions include Managing Director and Chief Accounting Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from March 2005 to June 2011, Chief Accounting Officer of Assured Guaranty Corp. from October 2003 to March 2005, and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. from 1999 until 2003. He was Assistant Controller of Capital Re Corp., which was acquired by ACE Limited in 1999. Mr. Bailenson was instrumental in significant strategic initiatives, including the initial public offering of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and the acquisition of Financial Security Assurance Inc. (now Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.), as well as other legacy financial guarantors. Before joining Assured Guaranty, he was with Ernst & Young LLP.
Stephen Donnarumma, Chief Credit Officer
Stephen Donnarumma has been the Chief Credit Officer of Assured Guaranty since 2007, and of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) from 2009 until AGM merged into AG in 2024. He joined Assured Guaranty in 1993. Throughout his tenure, he has held various positions, including Managing Director of the Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities Group, Deputy Chief Credit Officer of AGL, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Underwriting Officer of AG Re, and Chief Risk Officer of AG. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, Mr. Donnarumma worked at Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (1989-1993), Fannie Mae (1987-1989), and Moody's Investors Service (1985-1987).
Robert S. Tucker, Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
Robert S. Tucker is the Senior Managing Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications at Assured Guaranty. He is responsible for managing the company's relationships with fixed-income and equity investors, as well as its media relations and communications. Mr. Tucker joined Assured Guaranty in 1996. His previous experience includes serving as Managing Director at Financial Security Assurance and as Vice President & Assistant Director, Public Finance at Moody's Investors Service.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Assured Guaranty's business include economic and market volatility, concentration risk in the U.S. public finance sector, and regulatory and legal risks.
- Economic and Market Volatility: Assured Guaranty's business is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and market fluctuations. Changes in interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events can directly impact the demand for its credit enhancement products, the performance of its insured obligations, and the value of its investment portfolio. For instance, low U.S. Treasury yields and compressed credit spreads can reduce the incentive for issuers to purchase financial guaranty insurance, thereby affecting new business premiums.
- Concentration Risk in U.S. Public Finance: The company's insured portfolio has a significant concentration in U.S. public finance obligations. As of 2025, approximately 70% of Assured Guaranty's insured par was tied to U.S. municipal credits. This heavy weighting exposes the company to systemic municipal stress; a widespread decline in state or local government revenues could lead to simultaneous defaults, straining the company's capital and financial resources.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: The financial guaranty insurance industry is subject to extensive regulation. Changes in insurance, bankruptcy, or tax laws, as well as new legal or regulatory decisions, can have significant adverse effects on Assured Guaranty. A notable example is the introduction of a corporate income tax in Bermuda, effective from 2025, which could impact the company's future financial results.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in several key markets, with significant addressable opportunities in financial guaranty insurance, structured finance, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and specialty insurance products such as life and aircraft residual value insurance.
Financial Guaranty Insurance
The global financial guarantee market was valued at approximately USD 39.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 87.9 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global market at USD 42.3 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 72.6 billion by 2033. North America is the leading region in this market, holding approximately 60% of the global share, followed by Europe at around 25%, and Asia-Pacific with about 10%.
Within the U.S. public finance sector, where Assured Guaranty is a major provider of municipal bond insurance, the municipal bond insurance volume grew 17.7% in the first three quarters of 2025. The top two municipal bond insurers collectively wrapped over $34.162 billion in Q1-Q3 2025. In 2025, Assured Guaranty itself insured a total of $27 billion of new issue and secondary market par in the U.S., a 11% increase over 2024. The broader global bond market, which forms the underlying asset class for much of financial guaranty insurance, was valued at $133 trillion in 2022 and is projected to expand from USD 143.15 trillion in 2025 to USD 168.85 trillion by 2031. The U.S. bond market alone was valued at over $51 trillion in 2022.
Structured Finance
The global structured finance market, which includes asset-backed securities (ABS), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), is valued at over $2 trillion and is expected to grow steadily. Other estimates for the global structured finance market size include USD 1,026.23 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 1,704.44 billion by 2035, and US$1.4 trillion in 2024, anticipated to grow to US$2.6 trillion by 2030. North America is the leading region in this market, followed by Europe and Asia-Pacific. The U.S. structured finance market was estimated at US$388.8 billion in 2024.
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)
The global collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market reached $1 trillion in 2021. It was valued at US$1.26 trillion in 2022 and is expected to grow to US$2.71 trillion by 2028. More recent data indicates the global CLO market size was $1.6 trillion in 2025, growing to $1.83 trillion in 2026, and is expected to reach $3.07 trillion by 2030. North America held the largest share in the global CLO market in 2025 and is projected to remain dominant.
Specialty Insurance: Life Insurance
Assured Guaranty also offers life insurance as part of its specialty insurance products. The global life insurance market was estimated at USD 7.55 trillion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 18.03 trillion by 2034. Another estimate states the global life insurance market size was $3011.86 billion in 2021, reaching $3541.1 billion by the end of 2025, and projected to become $4894.92 billion by 2033. North America is a significant market, holding 39.35% of the global market revenue in 2025.
Specialty Insurance: Aircraft Residual Value Insurance
The global residual value insurance market size, which includes aircraft residual value insurance, reached USD 4.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to USD 12.6 billion by 2033. This growth is largely driven by the increasing adoption of leasing models in various asset-heavy industries, including aviation. North America leads this market, with approximately USD 1.9 billion in premiums in 2024. Separately, the global aircraft insurance market is expected to climb from $6.5 billion in 2024 to $9.2 billion by 2033, with another source valuing it at USD 15.1 billion in 2023, forecasted to grow to USD 19.2 billion by 2032. The global aviation insurance market was valued at USD 5.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 8.88 billion by 2034. North America dominated the aviation insurance market with a 44.90% market share in 2025.
Infrastructure Finance
While not a direct product in the same way as insurance, Assured Guaranty's financial guaranty products are crucial for public finance and infrastructure projects. The global infrastructure market is valued at approximately USD 2.7 trillion. McKinsey estimates that a cumulative $106 trillion in investment will be necessary through 2040 to meet global needs for new and updated infrastructure. Private participation in infrastructure (PPI) investment globally reached $100.7 billion in 2024. Assets under management in dedicated infrastructure funds have surged to $1.35 trillion and are predicted to grow to $2.3 trillion by 2030.
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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Entry into the Annuity Reinsurance Market: Assured Guaranty has strategically entered the annuity reinsurance market through the acquisition of Warwick Re Limited (now Assured Life Reinsurance Ltd.) in January 2026. This move is designed to diversify revenue sources and will focus on fixed-term annuities and pension risk transfer products, offering a new stream of earnings.
- Sustained Strength and Demand in Core Financial Guaranty Business: The company anticipates strong results from its financial guaranty product lines, supported by a robust transaction pipeline. Management expects continued leadership in the municipal bond insurance market, with analysts projecting modestly higher bond insurance penetration rates for 2026 due to anticipated heavy supply and evolving buyer dynamics. Additionally, the global structured finance business has shown significant growth, more than doubling its present value of new business (PVP) in the previous year, and international infrastructure (non-U.S. public finance) also saw increased PVP.
- Growing Contributions from Alternative Investments: Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly material contributor to the company's adjusted operating income. These investments surpassed $1 billion in fair value by year-end 2025 and generated substantial pre-tax adjusted operating income, with the company aiming to improve overall investment returns by increasing its allocation to alternative investments.
- International Expansion in Financial Guaranty: Assured Guaranty is actively pursuing international expansion by establishing new offices in regions like Australia and Singapore, and exploring opportunities in Continental Europe and Asia. This geographic diversification is crucial for expanding its customer base and diversifying revenue streams beyond its traditional U.S. public finance market.
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Share Repurchases
- Assured Guaranty repurchased $500 million of its shares in 2025, representing 12% of common shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024.
- In 2025, the Board authorized additional share repurchases of $400 million, with a target of $500 million per year.
- As of February 27, 2026, the remaining share repurchase authorization was $204 million.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Assured Guaranty acquired Warwick Re Limited for $158 million, renaming it Assured Life Reinsurance Limited, to expand into the life and annuity reinsurance market.
- The company maintains a 30% ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management and has committed up to $1 billion to Sound Point-managed alternative investments.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 72.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,087 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 628 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 616 |
| CFO LTM | 628 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 616 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 25.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 13.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 855 | 757 | 733 | 874 | 917 |
| Corporate division | 275 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3 |
| Asset Management | 76 | 112 | 83 | 66 | 22 |
| Other | 61 | 14 | 142 | 40 | 22 |
| Total | 1,267 | 887 | 960 | 989 | 964 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 621 | 413 | 722 | ||
| Corporate division | 45 | -134 | -263 | ||
| Asset Management | 3 | -6 | -19 | ||
| Other | -21 | -6 | 30 | ||
| Total | 648 | 267 | 470 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $81.74 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $83.20 | $84.20 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.7% | -2.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| Upside Capture | 47.32 | 29.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 45.2% | 29.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| Up Beta | 0.58 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| Down Beta | -2.30 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | 52% | 55% | 47% | 34% | 22% | 31% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 35 | 63 | 121 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 313% | 100% | 62% | 39% | 60% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 21 | 29 | 60 | 129 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | -5.1% | 18.6% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 7.5% | 14.7% | 0.28 | 52.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.7% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.6% | 27.2% | 1.21 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.7% | 18.0% | 2.18 | -14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.1% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.0% | 42.2% | -0.39 | 4.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | 12.7% | 27.0% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.5% | 18.7% | 0.39 | 64.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.9% | 0.91 | -2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 43.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.3% | 56.2% | 0.34 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | 14.2% | 33.8% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 67.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 54.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | -2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 19.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 52.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | -0.1% | 0.5% | -8.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -3.0% | -2.3% | -2.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.2% | -2.2% | -4.7% |
| 2/27/2025 | -5.3% | -7.8% | -5.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.4% | -1.5% | 2.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 4.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -4.4% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -14.8% | -14.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borges, Francisco L | Direct | Sell | 3312026 | 80.22 | 123,750 | 9,927,225 | 14,195,089 | Form | |
| 2 | Frederico, Dominic | President/CEO/Deputy Chairman | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 81.06 | 20,002 | 1,621,362 | 104,915,391 | Form |
| 3 | Radtke, Lorin | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 87.14 | 1,219 | 106,224 | 723,001 | Form | |
| 4 | Frederico, Dominic | President/CEO/Deputy Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 83.83 | 25,000 | 2,095,750 | 107,956,526 | Form |
| 5 | Bailenson, Robert | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 81.51 | 40,000 | 3,260,400 | 23,778,756 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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