Tearsheet

Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (12/28/2025): $90.66 | Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Assured Guaranty (AGO)


Market Price (12/28/2025): $90.66
Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
Key risks
AGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Financial Stability & Public Infrastructure. Themes include Green Bonds, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.5%, Dist 3Y High is -3.5%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
8 Key risks
AGO key risks include [1] a significant decline in net premiums earned, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the movement of Assured Guaranty (AGO) stock by 10.7% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 28, 2025:

<b>1. Assured Guaranty reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with both revenue and earnings per share surpassing analyst expectations.</b>

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<b>2. The company demonstrated substantial operational strength, with adjusted operating income per share increasing by 6% from the third quarter of 2024.</b>

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<b>3. Assured Guaranty experienced significant growth in new business production, particularly in its U.S. Public Finance segment, where gross written premiums more than doubled compared to Q3 2024.</b>

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<b>4. The company maintained robust capital metrics, achieving record highs in shareholders' equity per share ($121.13), adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share ($123.10), and adjusted book value per share ($181.37).</b>

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<b>5. Assured Guaranty continued its aggressive capital return program, including repurchasing 9.7% of shares outstanding since December 31, 2024, and authorizing an additional $100 million share repurchase program.</b>

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 7.5% change in AGO stock from 9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 21.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
927202512272025Change
Stock Price ($)84.3390.657.50%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1007.00954.00-5.26%
Net Income Margin (%)46.47%42.14%-9.33%
P/E Multiple8.8110.6921.31%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)48.9047.403.07%
Cumulative Contribution7.40%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/27/2025 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
AGO7.5% 
Market (SPY)4.3%7.7%
Sector (XLF)3.3%40.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.4% change in AGO stock from 6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
628202512272025Change
Stock Price ($)86.8590.654.37%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)923.00954.003.36%
Net Income Margin (%)48.00%42.14%-12.20%
P/E Multiple9.8010.699.04%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)50.0047.405.20%
Cumulative Contribution4.09%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/28/2025 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
AGO4.4% 
Market (SPY)12.6%14.2%
Sector (XLF)7.4%44.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.8% change in AGO stock from 12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 69.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
1227202412272025Change
Stock Price ($)88.1790.652.81%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)931.00954.002.47%
Net Income Margin (%)78.84%42.14%-46.55%
P/E Multiple6.2910.6969.81%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)52.4047.409.54%
Cumulative Contribution1.88%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/27/2024 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
AGO2.8% 
Market (SPY)17.0%51.3%
Sector (XLF)15.3%65.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 53.6% change in AGO stock from 12/28/2022 to 12/27/2025 was primarily driven by a 69.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
1228202212272025Change
Stock Price ($)59.0290.6553.60%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)563.00954.0069.45%
Net Income Margin (%)52.04%42.14%-19.03%
P/E Multiple12.4310.69-14.00%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)61.7047.4023.18%
Cumulative Contribution45.35%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/28/2023 to 12/27/2025
ReturnCorrelation
AGO25.1% 
Market (SPY)48.0%41.2%
Sector (XLF)51.3%57.7%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGO Return-34%62%26%23%22%3%108%
Peers Return16%38%-12%21%26%16%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGO Win Rate42%58%58%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%65%42%68%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGO Max Drawdown-60%-2%-7%-25%-1%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-5%-26%-7%-9%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven244 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven401 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven450 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven942.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,797 days1,480 days

Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL

In The Past

Assured Guaranty's stock fell -30.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -30.6% loss requires a 44.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Assured Guaranty (AGO)

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

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  • It's like the FDIC, but for municipal bonds and other structured finance products.
  • Think of it as a specialized insurance company, similar to AIG or Chubb, that guarantees timely payments on municipal bonds.

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  • Financial Guaranty Insurance: This service involves providing credit enhancement by guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest on municipal bonds and other structured finance obligations.
  • Asset Management: This service provides investment management solutions to institutional clients, primarily focused on various fixed-income strategies.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (symbol: AGO) is a financial guaranty insurance company. Due to the nature of its business, which involves guaranteeing debt obligations to enhance their creditworthiness, Assured Guaranty primarily sells its services to other entities and institutions rather than directly to individuals.

Its "major customers" are typically the issuers of the bonds and other financial obligations that Assured Guaranty guarantees. These include:

  • Municipalities and Public Sector Entities: This category includes U.S. states, cities, counties, school districts, public authorities, and other governmental or quasi-governmental entities. They issue municipal bonds to finance public projects such as infrastructure, education, and utilities, and seek Assured Guaranty's guarantees to lower their borrowing costs and increase market access.
  • Public Infrastructure Project Issuers: Entities developing and financing large-scale infrastructure projects globally, including those in transportation, energy, and social infrastructure, often issue debt that benefits from Assured Guaranty's financial guarantees to attract a wider range of investors.
  • Structured Finance Transactions: While their primary focus has largely shifted to municipal finance since the global financial crisis, Assured Guaranty has a significant legacy book and some ongoing business in guaranteeing various structured finance products. The "customers" here are the special purpose vehicles (SPVs) or other entities that issue asset-backed securities (ABS), residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and other structured debt.

It is important to note that financial guaranty companies like Assured Guaranty do not typically disclose a list of specific "major customer companies" with names and symbols, as their business is transactional. They guarantee specific debt issuances from a wide range of public and private sector entities over time, rather than maintaining long-term, direct product sales relationships with a fixed set of corporate customers in the traditional sense.

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Supplier Company Name Symbol
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP N/A (Private Company)
S&P Global Inc. SPGI
Moody's Corporation MCO

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Dominic J. Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer

Dominic Frederico has served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since December 2003, and as a director since the company's 2004 initial public offering. Under his leadership, Assured Guaranty completed its initial public offering in 2004 and acquired the financial guaranty insurance company now named Assured Guaranty Municipal in 2009. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, Mr. Frederico served as Vice Chair of ACE Limited (now Chubb Limited) from 2003 until 2004, and as President and Chief Operating Officer of ACE Limited and Chair of ACE INA Holdings, Inc. from 1999 to 2003. During his tenure at ACE Limited, he oversaw the successful acquisition and integration of the domestic and international property casualty operations acquired by ACE from CIGNA Corporation in July 1999 and the acquisition of Capital Re Corp., the predecessor company to Assured Guaranty, in December 1999. Before ACE Limited, he spent 13 years working for various subsidiaries of the American International Group (AIG), where his last position was Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AIG Risk Management.

Benjamin G. Rosenblum, Chief Financial Officer

Benjamin G. Rosenblum was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. as of January 1, 2024, succeeding Robert A. Bailenson. Mr. Rosenblum joined Assured Guaranty in 2004 and served as the Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from 2021 through December 2023, and also Chief Actuary of Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and Assured Guaranty Corp. since 2010. In 2015, he was named Senior Managing Director in charge of Insurance Accounting and Financial Reporting. Prior to joining Assured Guaranty, he worked for nearly ten years as an actuary, primarily focusing on loss reserving and developing actuarial systems and financial projections in the insurance industry.

Robert A. Bailenson, Chief Operating Officer

Robert A. Bailenson was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. as of January 1, 2024. He previously served as Chief Financial Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. from June 2011 through December 2023. Mr. Bailenson has been with Assured Guaranty and its predecessor companies since 1990, holding various leadership positions including Managing Director and Chief Accounting Officer. He was instrumental in significant strategic initiatives, including the IPO of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and the acquisition of Financial Security Assurance Inc. (now Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.). Before joining the company, Mr. Bailenson worked at Ernst & Young LLP.

Ling Chow, General Counsel and Secretary

Ling Chow has served as General Counsel and Secretary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. since January 2015. Prior to joining the company, Ms. Chow was an associate at law firms in New York City, where she was responsible for transactional work related to public and private mergers and acquisitions, venture capital investments, and private and public securities offerings.

Stephen Donnarumma, Chief Credit Officer

Stephen Donnarumma is a Senior Managing Director and Chief Credit Officer for the Assured Guaranty companies, responsible for overseeing the underwriting process. Mr. Donnarumma joined Assured Guaranty in 1993 and has held several key roles, including managing director of the Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities Group, chief underwriting officer and chief operating officer of Assured Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company, chief operating officer of Assured Guaranty Re Ltd., and chief risk officer of Assured Guaranty Corp.

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The key risks to Assured Guaranty's business include exposure to systemic credit events, declining net premiums earned, and risks associated with its international portfolio's credit quality.

  1. Systemic Credit Events and Economic Downturns: As a financial guaranty insurance provider, Assured Guaranty's business is highly correlated with systemic financial risks. Economic downturns, market volatility, and budget or pension shortfalls in state, territorial, and local governments can lead to increased credit losses or impairments on the obligations Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures. This directly impacts the company's core operations, as its insurance responds to missed interest or principal payments on loans.
  2. Declining Net Premiums Earned and Revenue Projections: Assured Guaranty has experienced a decline in net premiums earned over recent years, with a 6.2% annual decrease over the last four years. Analysts project a significant drop in revenue, with expectations of a 24.2% decrease over the next 12 months. This prolonged slide in premium revenues suggests demand headwinds and a tougher sales cycle for its insurance products, posing a challenge to the company's revenue growth and profitability.
  3. International Exposure and Credit Quality: Assured Guaranty conducts a notable portion of its business internationally, with approximately 20% of its total par value of insurance contracts written originating outside the U.S. The credit quality within this international segment is poorer compared to its overall portfolio, with 13% of the risk classified as below investment grade, in contrast to only 4% for the entire portfolio. This elevated exposure to lower-rated international risks increases the potential for losses in the event of adverse economic conditions or credit events in those regions.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) primarily operates in the financial guaranty insurance sector, covering U.S. municipal bonds, public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets both domestically and internationally. The company also has an interest in the asset management sector.

The addressable markets for Assured Guaranty's main products and services are as follows:

  • U.S. Municipal Bond Insurance: The total U.S. municipal bond market had $4.3 trillion in outstanding debt as of the second quarter of 2025. For new issuance, municipal bond insurers collectively wrapped $41.166 billion of debt in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the insured share of total municipal issuance in the U.S. was approximately 7.9%.

  • Global Financial Guarantee Market (including Public Finance, Infrastructure, and Structured Finance): This broader market, encompassing Assured Guaranty's core insurance activities, was valued at approximately USD 35.73 billion globally in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 80.34 billion by 2032. North America is a dominant region within this market. Other estimates place the global financial guarantee market size at USD 42.3 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 72.6 billion by 2033, or $45.76 billion in 2024, projected to reach $77.8 billion in 2029.

  • Global Structured Finance Market: As a specific segment within financial guarantees, the global structured finance market was valued at USD 2,513.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 7,498.53 billion by 2034.

  • Asset Management: Assured Guaranty has a 30% ownership interest in Sound Point Capital Management. Following the combination of Assured Guaranty's asset management business (AssuredIM) with Sound Point Capital Management in 2023, Sound Point Capital's pro forma assets under management (AUM) were anticipated to be approximately $47 billion.

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Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. Growth in U.S. Public Finance New Business Production: Assured Guaranty has demonstrated strong performance in the U.S. public finance market, with significant growth in new business production. The company reported a substantial increase in gross written premiums (GWP) for U.S. Public Finance in Q3 2025, more than double the amount from the prior year, and an increased municipal market penetration. This indicates a continued ability to capture new opportunities and expand its market share in its core business.
  2. Expansion in Secondary Municipal Market and Global Structured Finance: The company is actively targeting growth opportunities in the secondary municipal market, as evidenced by a significant increase in the par amount of municipal secondary market policies written in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year. Additionally, Assured Guaranty sees growth potential and plans to expand its global market presence, particularly in Europe and Australia, within the global structured finance sector.
  3. Increased Investment Income: Investment performance is a crucial component of Assured Guaranty's revenue. The company reported an increase in net investment income in Q3 2025, with an improved overall investment portfolio yield. Continued effective management of its investment portfolio and capitalizing on favorable market conditions are expected to contribute to revenue growth.
  4. Focus on Shorter-Term, Higher-Return Transactions: Assured Guaranty is strategically targeting shorter-term, higher-return transactions. This approach aims to optimize the profitability of its underwriting activities and accelerate revenue generation from new business.

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Share Repurchases

  • Assured Guaranty repurchased $502 million of its common shares in 2024, exceeding its $500 million target.
  • As of August 6, 2025, the company had repurchased $296 million of common shares, with a target of $500 million in repurchases for the full year 2025.
  • The Board authorized an additional $300 million for share repurchases in August 2025.

Share Issuance

  • The number of outstanding shares has consistently decreased over the last five years, from 83.2 million in 2020 to 48.9 million in November 2025, indicating no significant share issuances by the company.

Outbound Investments

  • In 2023, Assured Guaranty transformed its asset management business by contributing substantially all of AssuredIM to Sound Point Capital Management, LP.
  • This transaction resulted in Assured Guaranty receiving an approximately 30% interest in the combined entity, along with a $222 million pre-tax gain from the Sound Point transaction and a separate sale of the remainder of its asset management business.

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.5%-1.5%-1.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.5%-4.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
7.6%7.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.1%-11.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Assured Guaranty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGOHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameAssured .HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Mkt Price90.6523.2624.49305.0978.16273.4084.41
Mkt Cap4.321.932.6284.9309.24,074.4158.8
Rev LTM95455,29534,29665,40257,696408,62556,496
Op Inc LTM-3,6241,64411,54412,991130,21411,544
FCF LTM2662,80062711,85412,73396,1847,327
FCF 3Y Avg322,9781,40011,75313,879100,5037,366
CFO LTM2663,6972,91913,48313,744108,5658,590
CFO 3Y Avg323,6723,89613,49814,736111,5598,697

Growth & Margins

AGOHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameAssured .HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Rev Chg LTM2.5%3.2%13.8%4.5%8.9%6.0%5.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg25.8%-3.9%6.5%2.6%3.7%1.8%3.2%
Rev Chg Q-21.0%4.2%14.4%9.1%7.5%9.6%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.3%1.1%3.7%2.1%1.8%2.1%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM-6.6%4.8%17.7%22.5%31.9%17.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.4%7.2%16.4%24.2%30.8%16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--0.2%-1.4%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM27.9%6.7%8.5%20.6%23.8%26.6%22.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%6.8%12.7%21.4%26.1%28.4%17.1%
FCF/Rev LTM27.9%5.1%1.8%18.1%22.1%23.5%20.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%5.5%4.6%18.6%24.6%25.6%12.1%

Valuation

AGOHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameAssured .HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
Mkt Cap4.321.932.6284.9309.24,074.4158.8
P/S4.50.41.04.45.410.04.4
P/EBIT7.06.819.925.122.531.321.2
P/E10.78.6572.736.029.941.033.0
P/CFO16.25.911.221.122.537.518.6
Total Yield9.4%14.1%2.3%5.0%5.4%2.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%2.1%2.2%2.1%0.4%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.3%10.6%5.5%6.4%6.0%3.1%5.7%
D/E0.40.50.70.20.10.00.3
Net D/E-0.20.30.60.20.00.00.1

Returns

AGOHPQHPEIBMCSCOAAPLMedian
NameAssured .HP Hewlett .Internat.Cisco Sy.Apple  
1M Rtn0.7%-1.8%14.4%0.6%2.7%-1.5%0.6%
3M Rtn7.5%-11.9%2.7%7.9%17.0%7.1%7.3%
6M Rtn4.4%-4.0%34.5%6.6%15.2%36.3%10.9%
12M Rtn2.8%-27.0%16.2%40.5%34.5%7.5%11.8%
3Y Rtn53.6%-1.9%71.1%143.1%81.3%120.2%76.2%
1M Excs Rtn-1.8%-5.6%12.9%-2.2%-0.0%-3.7%-2.0%
3M Excs Rtn3.2%-16.2%-1.7%3.6%12.7%2.8%3.0%
6M Excs Rtn-7.9%-16.3%22.3%-5.7%3.0%24.0%-1.3%
12M Excs Rtn-11.4%-42.9%-0.7%25.0%19.9%-8.4%-4.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-27.3%-83.5%-11.2%59.6%-1.2%28.4%-6.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance855757733874917
Corporate division2754293
Asset Management76112836622
Other61141424022
Total1,267887960989964


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Insurance621413722  
Corporate division45-134-263  
Asset Management3-6-19  
Other-21-630  
Total648267470  


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$90.65 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4.3 
First Trading Date04/23/2004 
Distance from 52W High-3.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$86.68$84.36
DMA Trendindeterminateup
Distance from DMA4.6%7.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility20.9%23.1%
Downside Capture-4.0551.24
Upside Capture31.5045.83
Correlation (SPY)8.3%51.2%
AGO Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.040.200.300.360.640.68
Up Beta-1.13-0.27-0.040.380.660.62
Down Beta-0.010.380.300.270.720.70
Up Capture109%48%58%36%38%39%
Bmk +ve Days12253873141426
Stock +ve Days10182961127399
Down Capture-29%8%22%40%70%89%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days8223263119345

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 Comparison of AGO With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 AGOSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return5.0%16.3%17.8%72.1%8.6%4.4%-8.2%
Annualized Volatility22.9%19.0%19.4%19.3%15.2%17.0%35.0%
Sharpe Ratio0.140.670.722.700.340.09-0.08
Correlation With Other Assets 65.3%51.3%6.6%20.3%61.9%11.6%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 Comparison of AGO With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 AGOSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return25.9%16.1%14.7%18.7%11.5%4.6%30.8%
Annualized Volatility28.4%18.9%17.1%15.5%18.7%18.9%48.6%
Sharpe Ratio0.840.710.700.970.500.160.57
Correlation With Other Assets 63.8%48.0%-4.0%15.1%41.8%17.9%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 Comparison of AGO With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 AGOSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return15.7%13.2%14.8%15.3%7.0%5.3%69.2%
Annualized Volatility34.1%22.3%18.0%14.7%17.6%20.8%55.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.520.550.710.860.320.220.90
Correlation With Other Assets 67.5%54.6%-3.2%21.1%51.9%11.9%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLF, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,277,061
Short Interest: % Change Since 11302025-1.1%
Average Daily Volume272,844
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.68
Basic Shares Quantity47,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20256.5%7.9%8.9%
8/7/2025-3.0%-2.3%-2.6%
5/8/2025-1.2%-2.2%-4.7%
2/27/2025-5.3%-7.8%-5.0%
11/12/20242.1%2.7%1.0%
8/7/2024-2.4%-1.5%2.6%
5/7/20244.7%-0.7%-0.7%
2/27/202410.9%6.4%2.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141012
# Negative91311
Median Positive3.3%5.1%6.1%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.4%-4.7%
Max Positive14.9%15.9%15.6%
Max Negative-14.9%-14.1%-29.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021