Visa (V)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $363.24 | Market Cap: $656.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Visa (V)
Market Price (7/29/2026): $363.24Market Cap: $656.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 67% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 21 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 53 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x Key risksV key risks include [1] global regulatory and antitrust challenges targeting its market dominance and fee structure, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 67% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 21 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 53 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 29x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 30x |
| Key risksV key risks include [1] global regulatory and antitrust challenges targeting its market dominance and fee structure, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Visa (V) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Performance in Q2 and Q3 2026 with Upgraded Outlook.
Visa delivered robust financial results in both fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026, surpassing analyst expectations. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on April 28, 2026, net revenue increased 17% year-over-year to $11.2 billion, marking the highest growth rate since 2022, and non-GAAP EPS rose 20% to $3.31, exceeding the consensus forecast of $3.10. This strong momentum continued into fiscal Q3 2026, reported on July 28, 2026, with net revenue climbing 14% year-over-year to $11.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS increasing 11% to $3.32, both ahead of estimates. Management further boosted investor confidence by raising its full-year EPS growth guidance to the low end of mid-teens and revenue growth guidance to the low end of low teens.
2. Sustained Growth in Key Business Drivers.
The company experienced significant growth across its core business segments. In fiscal Q2 2026, payments volume increased 9%, total cross-border volume grew 12% (11% excluding intra-Europe), and processed transactions rose 9%. This trend persisted in fiscal Q3 2026, where quarterly payments volume crossed $4 trillion for the first time in Visa's history, up 10% in constant dollars year-over-year, and processed transactions grew 10%. Additionally, value-added services revenue demonstrated strong growth, increasing 34% year-over-year in constant dollars to $3.8 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, partly driven by marketing services related to the FIFA World Cup 2026.
Show more
Visa (V) stock has gained about 20% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Performance in Q2 and Q3 2026 with Upgraded Outlook.
Visa delivered robust financial results in both fiscal Q2 2026 and Q3 2026, surpassing analyst expectations. For fiscal Q2 2026, reported on April 28, 2026, net revenue increased 17% year-over-year to $11.2 billion, marking the highest growth rate since 2022, and non-GAAP EPS rose 20% to $3.31, exceeding the consensus forecast of $3.10. This strong momentum continued into fiscal Q3 2026, reported on July 28, 2026, with net revenue climbing 14% year-over-year to $11.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS increasing 11% to $3.32, both ahead of estimates. Management further boosted investor confidence by raising its full-year EPS growth guidance to the low end of mid-teens and revenue growth guidance to the low end of low teens.
2. Sustained Growth in Key Business Drivers.
The company experienced significant growth across its core business segments. In fiscal Q2 2026, payments volume increased 9%, total cross-border volume grew 12% (11% excluding intra-Europe), and processed transactions rose 9%. This trend persisted in fiscal Q3 2026, where quarterly payments volume crossed $4 trillion for the first time in Visa's history, up 10% in constant dollars year-over-year, and processed transactions grew 10%. Additionally, value-added services revenue demonstrated strong growth, increasing 34% year-over-year in constant dollars to $3.8 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, partly driven by marketing services related to the FIFA World Cup 2026.
3. Shareholder Returns Enhanced by a New $20 Billion Repurchase Program.
Visa's board of directors authorized a new multi-year share repurchase program of $20.0 billion, announced with its fiscal Q2 2026 results. This substantial commitment to returning capital to shareholders signals financial strength and confidence in future earnings, acting as a significant catalyst for stock appreciation.
4. Predominantly Positive Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
Throughout the period, numerous equity analysts maintained or upgraded their ratings and increased price targets for Visa. Firms such as Oppenheimer, BNP Paribas Exane, Loop Capital, Weiss Ratings, Truist Financial, BMO Capital, Baird, Piper Sandler, and Macquarie all issued positive commentary, with several raising their price objectives. The consensus analyst rating stands at "Strong Buy," with an average price target of approximately $399.41, indicating continued bullish outlook for the stock.
5. Favorable Macroeconomic and Industry Trends.
Resilient consumer spending, particularly in the U.S., provided a supportive backdrop for Visa's performance. The broader payments industry continues to benefit from the ongoing shift to digital transactions and the increasing adoption of new technologies. Visa has been actively integrating and enhancing its "Visa as a Service stack," including capabilities related to agentic AI and stablecoins, aligning with emerging payment trends such as real-time payments and AI-driven commerce and fraud prevention.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.5% change in V stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 301.61 | 366.59 | 21.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,391 | 43,027 | 4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 50.2% | 51.7% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.8 | 29.8 | 7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,913 | 1,808 | 5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| V | 21.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.9% | -4.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 16.7% | 52.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in V stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 349.26 | 366.59 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,000 | 43,027 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 50.1% | 51.7% | 3.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.5 | 29.8 | -11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,926 | 1,808 | 6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| V | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.7% | 60.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.1% change in V stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 352.27 | 366.59 | 4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,621 | 43,027 | 14.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 52.9% | 51.7% | -2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.9 | 29.8 | -9.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,855 | 1,808 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| V | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 23.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.3% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.9% change in V stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 232.12 | 366.59 | 57.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,983 | 43,027 | 38.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.0% | 51.7% | 1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.2 | 29.8 | -1.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,056 | 1,808 | 13.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| V | 57.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.0% | 49.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 78.5% | 68.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| V Return | -0% | -3% | 26% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 73% |
| Peers Return | -8% | -27% | 12% | 30% | -8% | -8% | -18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| V Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 42% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 40% | 53% | 63% | 53% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| V Max Drawdown | -24% | -24% | -8% | -12% | -15% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -43% | -27% | -17% | -30% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MA, AXP, PYPL, GPN, FIS. See V Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | V | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -11.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Visa's stock fell -13.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | V | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 140 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Visa's stock fell -13.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Visa (V)
Visa Inc. (V) is a global payments technology company that operates at the core of the digital payment ecosystem. Instead of directly issuing credit cards or lending money, Visa serves as an intermediary, facilitating the secure and efficient movement of funds between consumers, merchants, and financial institutions worldwide. The company's primary role is to enable seamless digital transactions, connecting the various parties involved in a payment.
The cornerstone of Visa's operation is VisaNet, its proprietary transaction processing network. This robust global network is responsible for authorizing, clearing, and settling billions of payment transactions every day. Beyond this critical infrastructure, Visa also provides a suite of card products, technological platforms, and value-added services under well-known brands such as Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink, VPAY, and PLUS, designed to support and enhance the payment experience.
Visa's comprehensive services cater to a diverse and extensive global customer base. Its primary customers include individual consumers who use Visa-branded cards, merchants who accept these payments, financial institutions that issue cards and process transactions, as well as various businesses, strategic partners, and government entities. Essentially, Visa provides the essential infrastructure and technology that underpins and connects the vast network of digital payments across nearly every sector of the global economy.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Visa:
- Think of Visa as the FedEx for financial transactions. It provides the global network and infrastructure to securely and efficiently move payment data and authorizations between banks, merchants, and consumers.
- It's like the AWS (Amazon Web Services) for digital payment infrastructure. Visa provides the essential, invisible backend technology and processing network that allows banks and businesses to handle countless digital payment transactions seamlessly.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- VisaNet: A transaction processing network that enables the authorization, clearing, and settlement of digital payment transactions.
- Card Products: Various branded physical and digital payment cards utilized by consumers, merchants, and institutions.
- Platforms: Technology infrastructures that facilitate and support a wide range of payment solutions.
- Value-Added Services: Ancillary services such as fraud management, data analytics, and consulting that enhance the core payment offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Visa (V) sells primarily to other companies, specifically financial institutions that issue Visa-branded cards to consumers and businesses and acquire transactions from merchants. These financial institutions leverage Visa's payment network (VisaNet), brand, and associated services.
Major customers include:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
- Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
- Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
- Citigroup Inc. (C)
- Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ryan McInerney, Chief Executive Officer
Ryan McInerney became the Chief Executive Officer of Visa in February 2023. Before this role, he served as President of Visa, overseeing the company's global businesses. Prior to joining Visa in 2013, Mr. McInerney was the Chief Executive Officer of consumer banking for JPMorgan Chase, a division with over 75,000 employees and approximately $14 billion in revenues. His roles at JPMorgan Chase also included Chief Operating Officer for home lending, Chief Risk Officer for Chase's consumer businesses, and Head of Product and Marketing for consumer banking. Earlier in his career, he worked as a principal consultant at McKinsey & Company, specializing in retail banking and payments.
Chris Suh, Chief Financial Officer
Chris Suh was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Visa in July 2023, assuming full responsibility for the role in August 2023. Before joining Visa, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at Electronic Arts (EA). Mr. Suh spent over two decades at Microsoft in various senior finance leadership positions. Notably, he was the Corporate Vice President and CFO of the Cloud + AI group from 2018 to 2022 and Head of Investor Relations from 2013 to 2018, playing a critical role in Microsoft's transformation into a cloud-first company.
Paul Fabara, Chief Risk and Client Services Officer
Paul Fabara joined Visa in 2019 and is responsible for leading the company's client operations and global risk functions. Before his tenure at Visa, he spent eight years at American Express Company, holding key leadership roles such as President of the global services group and Chief Risk Officer. His career also includes serving as Global Chief Operating Officer for Barclays' credit card business, overseeing operations across 71 countries, and Chief Operating Officer of Alliance Data Systems. Mr. Fabara began his career at Providian Financial Corporation.
Jack Forestell, Chief Product and Strategy Officer
Jack Forestell is Visa's Chief Product and Strategy Officer, a role in which he oversees the design, development, and delivery of Visa's global product strategy and roadmap. He joined Visa in 2014. Prior to Visa, Mr. Forestell spent 12 years at Capital One, where his most recent position was Head of Capital One Digital, leading online and mobile banking, mobile/emerging payments, and digital product design and development. Before Capital One, he was a senior partner and a member of the Board of Directors at Mercer Management Consulting.
Frank Cooper III, Chief Marketing Officer
Frank Cooper III serves as Visa's Chief Marketing Officer, leading a global team dedicated to enhancing the company's purpose and advancing its business strategy in the global market. He is responsible for all aspects of marketing, including consumer, B2B, and client marketing, across all regions and functions. Mr. Cooper's diverse career journey includes leadership roles at Motown Records, Death Jam, AOL, Buzzfeed, Pepsi, and BlackRock. He also co-founded Urban Box Network, an online media company, in 1998.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Visa's business operations are primarily centered around ongoing regulatory and legal scrutiny, intense competition and technological disruption, and the persistent threat of cybersecurity breaches.
-
Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Visa faces significant and increasing regulatory pressure globally, particularly concerning interchange reimbursement fees and antitrust concerns. Regulations by bodies such as the U.S. Federal Reserve already cap debit interchange rates. The Department of Justice (DoJ) has accused Visa of monopolizing the U.S. debit market, which could result in substantial financial penalties or mandates for changes to its fee structure and business practices. Proposed legislation, such as the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) in the U.S., aims to increase competition by requiring transactions to be routed through at least two unaffiliated networks, potentially eroding Visa's profit margins by reducing interchange fees. Similar regulatory efforts, such as the EU's Interchange Fee Regulation (IFR), also cap consumer credit and debit interchange fees within the EEA. Visa has incurred significant legal costs, including an additional accrual of $2.2 billion in fiscal year 2025 for claims related to long-running interchange multidistrict litigation. The company is also subject to complex and evolving global regulations on data privacy and corporate responsibility, which could impose technical and compliance burdens.
-
Competition and Technological Disruption: The payments industry is highly dynamic, with Visa facing intense competition from both established players and emerging technologies. New payment methods and platforms, including mobile payments, alternative payment credentials, other ledger technologies, and increasing bilateral agreements between entities, pose a risk of disintermediation, potentially bypassing Visa's traditional network. Fintech companies like PayPal, Stripe, and Adyen are challenging incumbents with innovative digital solutions and competitive pricing. The rise of mobile wallets, cryptocurrencies, real-time payment systems, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services also represent evolving competitive threats that could impact Visa's market share if it fails to adapt quickly and effectively.
-
Cybersecurity Threats and Data Breaches: As a global payments technology company facilitating trillions in transactions, Visa is a prime target for cybercriminals. The proliferation of digital payments has introduced greater security threats, necessitating continuous and substantial investments in cybersecurity. Visa fends off approximately half a billion attacks on its perimeter monthly, ranging from phishing to sophisticated nation-state-backed assaults. Key cybersecurity risks include credential theft, account takeover, digital skimming (where malicious code harvests payment card details from e-commerce checkouts), and real-time payment fraud. The use of artificial intelligence by fraudsters is making cyberattacks faster, larger-scale, and more sophisticated. A major data breach or system outage could severely damage Visa's reputation, lead to significant financial losses, regulatory fines, and a loss of customer trust in its payment ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Emergence and proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) globally, offering alternative payment rails that can facilitate direct account-to-account transactions, potentially bypassing Visa's traditional network.
- Expansion of Open Banking initiatives and direct bank-to-bank payment solutions, allowing for seamless account-to-account transfers, particularly in e-commerce and bill payment scenarios, which could reduce reliance on card network infrastructure.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Visa Inc. (V) operates within several large and expanding addressable markets globally:
- Digital Payments Market (Global): The global digital payment market size was valued at USD 95.5 trillion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 457.8 trillion by 2032. Other estimates for the global digital payment market size range from USD 114.41 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030, to USD 147.06 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 474.53 billion by 2032. North America accounted for the largest share of the digital payments market in 2024.
- Card Payments Market (Global): The global card payments market was valued at USD 28.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 56.4 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the global card payments market to expand from USD 3.74 trillion in 2025 to USD 5.49 trillion by 2032. Asia-Pacific is noted as dominating the card payments market size.
- Payment Processing Solutions Market (Global): The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 198.9 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 11.7% from 2025 to 2034. North America held approximately a 35% share of this market in 2024.
- Value-Added Services (Global): Visa estimates a potential annual revenue opportunity of USD 520 billion in its Value-Added Services (VAS) globally.
- New Payment Flows (Global):
- Business-to-Business (B2B) Payments: This represents a substantial market of USD 145 trillion globally.
- Person-to-Person (P2P), Business-to-Consumer (B2C), and Government-to-Consumer (G2C) Payments: These segments collectively represent a non-B2B money movement opportunity of USD 55 trillion globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Visa (V) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Value-Added Services (VAS): Visa anticipates significant revenue growth from its Value-Added Services, which include areas such as advisory, risk, and security services. This segment has shown strong momentum, with revenue growing 28% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and contributing approximately 50% to Visa's overall revenue growth in that quarter. Visa projects that Value-Added Services and new payment flows will account for half of its total revenue by 2026.
- Expansion in Commercial and Money Movement Solutions: Visa is focused on expanding its commercial and money movement solutions, encompassing Business-to-Business (B2B) payments and Visa Direct. Commercial payments volume increased by 10% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025. Visa Direct transactions also saw substantial growth, increasing by 23% year-over-year in both Q1 2026 and Q4 2025, driven by both domestic and cross-border activity. This area, which contributed only 5% of net revenue in fiscal year 2024, represents a significant growth opportunity for the company.
- Growth in Cross-Border Volume: Cross-border transactions continue to be a key driver of revenue. Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, grew by 11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, supported by strong commercial volumes and increased U.S. inbound transactions from Canada. Cross-border volume as a whole increased by 12% in Q4 2025. This segment is considered a high-margin area for Visa.
- Innovation in New Payment Flows and Technologies: Visa is investing in and expanding new payment technologies and flows, including stablecoins, tokenization, and "agentic commerce." The company has expanded its stablecoin capabilities, with a settlement run rate of nearly $4.6 billion globally by the end of Q1 2026 and plans to scale stablecoin-linked card programs to 100 countries. Visa is also re-architecting its network to capitalize on "agentic commerce," where AI agents conduct autonomous transactions, which is expected to increase transaction density.
- Continued Strength in Core Consumer Payments: Despite the focus on new areas, sustained growth in core consumer payments remains a fundamental driver. Global payments volume grew by 8% year-over-year in constant dollars in Q1 2026, and processed transactions increased by 9% year-over-year. This reflects resilient consumer spending, which is a consistent contributor to Visa's net revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Visa reported annual share buybacks of $12.101 billion in 2023, $16.713 billion in 2024, and $18.316 billion in 2025.
- As of December 4, 2025, Visa had a remaining repurchase authorization of $24.9 billion.
- During the three months ending December 31, 2022, Visa repurchased $3.1 billion of Class A common stock, with $14.0 billion of authorized funds remaining for future share repurchases as of that date.
Share Issuance
- Visa's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the last few years, indicating net repurchases exceeding any issuances.
- Shares outstanding were 2.34 billion in 2023, 2.242 billion in 2024, and 2.1 billion in 2025.
- For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, shares outstanding were 2.067 billion, representing a 2.5% decline year-over-year.
Capital Expenditures
- Visa's capital expenditures were $705 million in 2021, $970 million in 2022, $1.06 billion in 2023, $1.26 billion in 2024, and $1.48 billion in 2025.
- The capital expenditures increased each fiscal year from 2021 to 2025.
- Visa's capital expenditures margin, which is capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, peaked in September 2025 at 3.7%.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Visa Stock's Next Move Might Not Come From Your Credit Card | 07/29/2026 | |
| Visa Stock Pays Out $95 Bil - Investors Take Note | 07/03/2026 | |
| Visa Stock And The Number Behind The Worry | 06/17/2026 | |
| What Could Push V Stock Higher From Here? | 06/10/2026 | |
| Is The Market Missing V Stock's Upside? | 05/06/2026 | |
| Visa Stock Up 8.3% in One Day, Should You Buy The Stock? | 04/30/2026 | |
| Visa Earnings Notes | 04/25/2026 | |
| Visa Stock Now 44% Cheaper, Time To Buy | 01/24/2026 | |
| High Margins, 43% Discount: Buy Visa Stock Now | 01/16/2026 | |
| V Stock Falls -8.3% With A 5-day losing streak On Regulatory Rate Cap Fears | 01/14/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| V Stock: Where Compounding Could Take The Price | 07/21/2026 | |
| Can Visa Stock Compound Its Way Higher? | 07/17/2026 | |
| Visa Stock: Where Compounding Could Take The Price | 06/10/2026 | |
| How Much Upside Can V Stock Deliver? | 05/06/2026 | |
| V Stock: 3 Impending Events That Could Invalidate the Thesis | 05/05/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 212.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 140.7 |
| Rev LTM | 33,836 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,362 |
| FCF LTM | 10,278 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,744 |
| CFO LTM | 12,328 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 10,694 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 140.7 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.8 |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 14.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $366.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 662.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/19/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $338.19 | $329.10 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.7% | 22.1% |
| Downside Capture | -134.88 | 36.03 |
| Upside Capture | -27.84 | 33.66 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -15.1% | 22.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.08 | -0.25 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| Up Beta | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.45 | 0.74 |
| Down Beta | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.65 | 0.41 | 0.73 |
| Up Capture | -9% | -31% | 1% | 8% | 30% | 27% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 63 | 121 | 416 |
| Down Capture | -65% | -88% | -107% | 23% | 62% | 78% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 62 | 131 | 335 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with V | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | 3.5% | 22.1% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.1% | 14.7% | 0.38 | 63.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.3% | 12.7% | 0.99 | 22.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 28.1% | 0.64 | -6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.1% | 19.5% | 1.19 | -14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.4% | 14.1% | 0.72 | 22.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.4% | 42.9% | -1.33 | 6.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with V | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | 9.4% | 22.9% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.7% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 60.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.4% | 0.74 | -0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 46.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.2% | 53.4% | 0.48 | 23.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with V | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | 17.5% | 24.4% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.0% | 0.56 | 68.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 73.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.8% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 19.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 56.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.5% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 8.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| 1/29/2026 | -3.0% | -0.8% | -3.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.1% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 6.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.4% | 1.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 11.9% |
| 7/23/2024 | -4.0% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.1% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 12.3% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -9.8% | -12.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 8.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| 1/29/2026 | -3.0% | -0.8% | -3.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.1% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 6.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.4% | 1.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 11.9% |
| 7/23/2024 | -4.0% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | 0.3% | -2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -1.7% | 1.6% | 4.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | 0.9% | 0.2% | 8.4% |
| 7/25/2023 | -0.7% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 1/26/2023 | 3.0% | 2.2% | -1.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | -1.0% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 4/26/2022 | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 1/27/2022 | 10.6% | 12.3% | 5.0% |
| 10/26/2021 | -6.9% | -9.8% | -12.2% |
| 7/27/2021 | -1.6% | -5.5% | -7.2% |
| 4/27/2021 | 1.5% | 0.9% | -1.1% |
| 1/28/2021 | -2.5% | 5.6% | 9.5% |
| 10/28/2020 | 2.2% | 7.2% | 16.8% |
| 7/28/2020 | 0.9% | -2.3% | 7.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.1% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 12.3% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -9.8% | -12.2% |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rottenberg, Julie B | GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 360.00 | 2,027 | 729,720 | 6,625,440 | Form |
| 2 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 343.99 | 10,490 | 3,608,434 | 5,219,674 | Form |
| 3 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302026 | 340.25 | 20,970 | 7,134,967 | 5,162,899 | Form |
| 4 | Suh, Chris | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 324.81 | 10,639 | 3,455,665 | 3,206,535 | Form |
| 5 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4302026 | 340.14 | 31,455 | 10,699,204 | 5,161,333 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rottenberg, Julie B | GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 360.00 | 2,027 | 729,720 | 6,625,440 | Form |
| 2 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 343.99 | 10,490 | 3,608,434 | 5,219,674 | Form |
| 3 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302026 | 340.25 | 20,970 | 7,134,967 | 5,162,899 | Form |
| 4 | Suh, Chris | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 324.81 | 10,639 | 3,455,665 | 3,206,535 | Form |
| 5 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4302026 | 340.14 | 31,455 | 10,699,204 | 5,161,333 | Form |
| 6 | Carney, Lloyd | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 309.62 | 650 | 201,253 | 829,471 | Form | |
| 7 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 349.18 | 10,485 | 3,661,152 | 3,282,641 | Form |
| 8 | Rottenberg, Julie B | GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 345.00 | 2,027 | 699,315 | 6,349,380 | Form |
| 9 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 340.07 | 10,485 | 3,565,636 | 3,197,000 | Form |
| 10 | Fabara, Paul D | CHIEF RISK & CLIENT SVCS OFC | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 331.45 | 7,556 | 2,504,436 | 8,754,589 | Form |
| 11 | Taneja, Rajat | PRESIDENT, TECHNOLOGY | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 330.14 | 23,743 | 7,838,626 | 76,630,547 | Form |
| 12 | Fabara, Paul D | CHIEF RISK & CLIENT SVCS OFC | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 325.93 | 2,172 | 707,917 | 8,608,755 | Form |
| 13 | Taneja, Rajat | PRESIDENT, TECHNOLOGY | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 330.00 | 6,305 | 2,080,650 | 76,596,960 | Form |
| 14 | Carney, Lloyd | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 336.48 | 900 | 302,832 | 830,433 | Form | |
| 15 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 341.00 | 10,485 | 3,575,385 | 183,117 | Form |
| 16 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 342.30 | 10,485 | 3,588,966 | 183,813 | Form |
| 17 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 348.57 | 10,485 | 3,654,707 | 187,180 | Form |
| 18 | Rottenberg, Julie B | GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 344.02 | 2,027 | 697,329 | 4,102,438 | Form |
| 19 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 343.13 | 10,485 | 3,597,718 | 184,261 | Form |
| 20 | McInerney, Ryan | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 353.82 | 8,630 | 3,053,467 | 190,001 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 29, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton Capital LLP | $101.6 Mil | 33.0% | 5 | ADD +34.4% | 13F |
| TCI Fund Management LTD | $9.2 Bil | 20.4% | 10 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $493.2 Mil | 14.7% | 30 | TRIM -32.0% | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.2 Bil | 13.8% | 24 | ADD +25.7% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $92.9 Mil | 12.3% | 11 | ADD +32.3% | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $700.1 Mil | 12.3% | 18 | ADD +34.8% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $226.7 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $45.1 Mil | 10.8% | 28 | ADD +20.2% | 13F |
| HughesLittle Investment Management Ltd. | $50.5 Mil | 9.9% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $149.6 Mil | 9.8% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $100.7 Mil | 9.6% | 16 | ADD +21.8% | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $725.4 Mil | 9.0% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $227.1 Mil | 8.9% | 22 | ADD +57.7% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $178.4 Mil | 8.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $495.3 Mil | 8.1% | 19 | TRIM -38.8% | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $58.7 Mil | 8.0% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $119.7 Mil | 7.8% | 10 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $352.5 Mil | 7.6% | 32 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $379.3 Mil | 7.6% | 17 | ADD +22.0% | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $356.6 Mil | 7.5% | 22 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $114.9 Mil | 7.4% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith LLP | $938.2 Mil | 7.3% | 34 | TRIM -12.2% | 13F |
| XXEC, Inc. | $41.6 Mil | 7.3% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $230.9 Mil | 7.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $66.7 Mil | 7.0% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye Global Management LP | $287.1 Mil | 6.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $286.9 Mil | 5.9% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $230.9 Mil | 7.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $178.4 Mil | 8.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $114.9 Mil | 7.4% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $68.9 Mil | 6.9% | 32 | New | 13F |
| GFI Investment Counsel Ltd. | $58.7 Mil | 8.0% | 24 | New | 13F |
| XXEC, Inc. | $41.6 Mil | 7.3% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $35.7 Mil | 6.4% | 43 | New | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $26.3 Mil | 5.3% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $20.4 Mil | 5.3% | 17 | New | 13F |
| 11 Capital Partners LP | $18.7 Mil | 6.1% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $227.1 Mil | 8.9% | 22 | ADD +57.7% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $226.7 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $700.1 Mil | 12.3% | 18 | ADD +34.8% | 13F |
| Alfreton Capital LLP | $101.6 Mil | 33.0% | 5 | ADD +34.4% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $92.9 Mil | 12.3% | 11 | ADD +32.3% | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $178.4 Mil | 6.1% | 11 | ADD +28.6% | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.2 Bil | 13.8% | 24 | ADD +25.7% | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $379.3 Mil | 7.6% | 17 | ADD +22.0% | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $100.7 Mil | 9.6% | 16 | ADD +21.8% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $45.1 Mil | 10.8% | 28 | ADD +20.2% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $895.0 Mil | 6.4% | 27 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| TCI Fund Management LTD | $9.2 Bil | 20.4% | 10 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $119.7 Mil | 7.8% | 10 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles-Lim Capital Ltd | $52.6 Mil | 14.3% | 7 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Dudley & Shanley, Inc. | $34.1 Mil | 5.5% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $27.8 Mil | 6.4% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Criteria Caixa, S.A.U. | $19.9 Mil | 6.9% | 8 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $495.3 Mil | 8.1% | 19 | TRIM -38.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $181.0 Mil | 5.4% | 7 | TRIM -34.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $493.2 Mil | 14.7% | 30 | TRIM -32.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $21.9 Mil | 6.5% | 37 | TRIM -15.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $356.6 Mil | 7.5% | 22 | TRIM -14.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fundsmith LLP | $938.2 Mil | 7.3% | 34 | TRIM -12.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $352.5 Mil | 7.6% | 32 | TRIM -7.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $309.9 Mil | 7.0% | 24 | TRIM -5.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCI Fund Management LTD | $9.2 Bil | 20.4% | 10 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.2 Bil | 13.8% | 24 | ADD +25.7% | 13F |
| Fundsmith LLP | $938.2 Mil | 7.3% | 34 | TRIM -12.2% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $895.0 Mil | 6.4% | 27 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $725.4 Mil | 9.0% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $700.1 Mil | 12.3% | 18 | ADD +34.8% | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $495.3 Mil | 8.1% | 19 | TRIM -38.8% | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $493.2 Mil | 14.7% | 30 | TRIM -32.0% | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $379.3 Mil | 7.6% | 17 | ADD +22.0% | 13F |
| Provident Trust Co | $356.6 Mil | 7.5% | 22 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $352.5 Mil | 7.6% | 32 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $309.9 Mil | 7.0% | 24 | TRIM -5.0% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $287.1 Mil | 6.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $286.9 Mil | 5.9% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $230.9 Mil | 7.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $227.1 Mil | 8.9% | 22 | ADD +57.7% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $226.7 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +50.0% | 13F |
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $181.0 Mil | 5.4% | 7 | TRIM -34.7% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $178.4 Mil | 8.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $178.4 Mil | 6.1% | 11 | ADD +28.6% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $149.6 Mil | 9.8% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $119.7 Mil | 7.8% | 10 | ADD +8.8% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $114.9 Mil | 7.4% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Alfreton Capital LLP | $101.6 Mil | 33.0% | 5 | ADD +34.4% | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $100.7 Mil | 9.6% | 16 | ADD +21.8% | 13F |
V Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive. Visa's growth is re-accelerating, driven by its Value-Added Services segment which now comprises 30% of revenue and is growing 27%. This successful pivot adds a durable, high-margin software-like layer to its core network. Persistent global regulatory pressure on transaction fees remains the primary long-term risk to this outlook.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Toll Road(Payments Volume x Service Fee Rate) + (Processed Transactions x Data Processing Fee) + (Cross-Border Volume x International Fee Rate) + Value-Added Services Revenue - Client Incentives Operating leverage from its massive scale, combined with a positive mix shift towards higher-margin Value-Added Services and new payment flows.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. This high-margin segment is now 30% of revenue and growing over 25%, fundamentally changing the growth algorithm.
- Value-Added Services revenue grew 27% in Q2 to $3.3 billion.
- This segment now represents 30% of total net revenue.
- Overall Q2 net revenue growth of 17% was the strongest since 2022.
- Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to low-double-digits to low-teens.
PRIMARY RISK
Global regulators are actively promoting low-cost, domestic payment networks and scrutinizing Visa's fees, which could erode its core transaction revenue and pricing power over time.
- Regulators in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K. are actively reviewing network and interchange fees.
- Government-sponsored Real-Time Payment networks have launched in at least 80 countries.
- Governments in China and India impose market access barriers that favor domestic providers.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Payments Volume Growth | 9% year-over-year in constant dollars for fiscal Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Payments volume growth, which measures the total value of transactions, has shown a slight acceleration in the most recent quarter. This indicates strengthening momentum after two quarters of stable 8% growth. |
| Processed Transactions Growth | 9% year-over-year for fiscal Q2 2026 - Stable | The growth in the number of transactions has been robust and stable, holding at 9% for the first half of fiscal 2026. This indicates consistent growth in network activity. |
| Cross-Border Volume Growth (Constant $, Ex-Intra-Europe) | 11% (Q2 FY2026) | Tracks the growth in transactions where the issuer and merchant are in different countries. This is a key driver for high-yielding international transaction revenue and is sensitive to travel and cross-border e-commerce trends. |
| Value-Added Services (VAS) Revenue Growth (Constant $) | 27% (Q2 FY2026) | Measures the growth of the high-margin services portfolio. Strong growth indicates successful diversification beyond core transaction processing and deepening client relationships. |
New Services Growth vs. Core Network Regulation
BULL VIEW
The 27% growth in Value-Added Services, now 30% of the business, will compound faster than regulators can chip away at the mature, low-growth parts of the core network.
CORE TENSION
Can 27% growth in the Value-Added Services segment offset structural threats from regulators actively promoting domestic payment systems and reviewing fee structures?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest quarter's 17% revenue growth, the strongest since 2022, and raised full-year guidance suggest the new growth drivers are currently winning this battle.
BEAR VIEW
Regulatory mandates for network choice or direct fee caps will structurally impair the highly profitable core business, overwhelming the contribution from new services.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
July 28, 2026 | Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: Visa is scheduled to report its fiscal third quarter 2026 financial results. |
August 2026 | EU AI Act Deadline Watch: Key provisions for high-risk AI systems under the EU's comprehensive AI Act are scheduled to take effect. |
Late October 2026 | Cross-Border Travel Slowdown Watch: Next earnings report's cross-border volume growth figures, specifically travel-related metrics and management commentary on geopolitical impacts. |
10/23/2026 | Peer Competitive Encroachment Watch: Peer earnings reports from AXP, GPN, and FIS for commentary on market share gains or portfolio wins. |
11/2/2026 | Peer GPN Earnings Watch: Peer Global Payments (GPN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Peer FIS Earnings Watch: Peer Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
the back half of the year | New Pricing Implementation Watch: New pricing is expected to go into effect. |
No set date | Adverse Regulatory Ruling Watch: Announcements from the UK's PSR, the European Commission, or U.S. legislative bodies regarding interchange or network fees. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-27 | New Share Repurchase Program Details: The board of directors authorized a new $20.0 billion share repurchase program, providing multi-year flexibility. | +1.9% $355.74 -> $362.53 |
2026-06-10 | AI and Stablecoin Initiatives Details: At its Payments Forum, Visa announced new AI, stablecoin, and token innovations, including a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to enable secure payments within agentic commerce. | -1.8% $325.05 -> $319.05 |
2026-04-28 | Q2 Earnings Beat and Guidance Raise Details: Visa reported fiscal Q2 net revenue up 17% to $11.2 billion and EPS up 20%. The company raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and EPS. | +8.1% $309.01 -> $334.17 |
2026-04-21 | New Interchange Litigation Filed Details: A class action complaint was filed against Visa and others in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, asserting violations of federal antitrust laws. | -0.8% $313.29 -> $310.65 |
2026-02-27 | Acquisition of Prisma and Newpay Details: Visa completed its acquisition of Prisma Medios de Pago and Newpay in Argentina for a total purchase consideration of $1.5 billion in cash. | +1.2% $316.04 -> $319.85 |
2026-01-29 | Q1 Earnings and Negative Reaction Details: Visa reported fiscal first quarter 2026 net revenue of $10.9 billion, up 15%, and EPS up 15%. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -2.0%. | -1.6% $325.63 -> $320.50 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: V trades at roughly 22% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.5x the market), around the 49th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MA - Mastercard
Direct PeerMastercard offers very similar exposure to the global secular growth of digital payments, providing a direct alternative within the same payment network business model.
AXP - American Express
Premium Consumer FocusAmerican Express provides exposure to high-spending affluent consumers through its closed-loop network, which combines issuing and acquiring, offering a different risk profile.
A hyperscaler of payments, leveraging its ubiquitous network to expand into new money movement flows while layering on a fast-growing, high-margin software and services business.
Visa is evolving from a simple transaction toll road into a multi-faceted payments technology platform. While its core consumer payments business remains a resilient, high-margin engine, the primary growth vectors are now Commercial & Money Movement Solutions (CMS) and Value-Added Services (VAS). The company is strategically positioning itself to be the essential infrastructure for emerging technologies like agentic commerce and stablecoins, aiming to capture growth and add value across all forms of digital money movement.
Sustained revenue growth in VAS and CMS above 20%, major client wins for new platforms like Pismo and Visa Direct, and tangible monetization of new initiatives in agentic commerce or stablecoin settlement.
Significant regulatory action that caps fees or mandates network choice (e.g., Credit Card Competition Act), successful disintermediation by government-backed Real-Time Payment (RTP) networks, or a sustained global recession that severely curtails consumer and business spending.
Short-term fluctuations in cross-border travel, quarterly foreign exchange volatility, or individual competitor announcements that don't fundamentally alter the two-sided network dynamics.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of Value-Added Services as a major, durable growth engine, now representing 30% of revenue and growing over 25%, shifting Visa's valuation narrative from a pure-play transaction processor to a more diversified payments technology and software company.
Visa — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services Resources |
| PYMNTS |
| Payments Dive |
| The Paypers |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.