Tearsheet

Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $180.41 | Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance

Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $180.41
Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Consumer Finance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1566%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Agricultural & Rural Financial Systems. Themes include Agricultural Mortgage Finance, and Rural Capital Access.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 19%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Agricultural & Rural Financial Systems. Themes include Agricultural Mortgage Finance, and Rural Capital Access.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1566%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Federal Agricultural Mortgage (symbol: AGM) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 14.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this movement:

1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: On November 3, 2025, Federal Agricultural Mortgage reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue coming in at $97.77 million, which was below analysts' expectations of $100.94 million.

2. Sequential Decline in Q3 2025 Earnings: The company's Q3 2025 earnings were reported at $48.7 million, representing a 1% decrease from the previous quarter.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGM Return-7%73%-6%75%6%-9%155%
Peers Return5%35%-13%25%8%5%75%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGM Win Rate50%67%42%75%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate38%54%29%35%46%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGM Max Drawdown-48%0%-25%0%-10%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-2%-19%-11%-14%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MBIN, KRNY, GFCX, SUIG, AXP. See AGM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven236 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven328 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven814 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-93.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1385.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1544 days1480 days

Compare to MBIN, KRNY, GFCX, SUIG, AXP


In The Past

Federal Agricultural Mortgage's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)

Better Bets than Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Federal Agricultural Mortgage

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGMMBINKRNYGFCXSUIGAXPMedian
NameFederal .Merchant.Kearny F.GoodFait.Sui American. 
Mkt Price176.9234.467.42-2.02368.1334.46
Mkt Cap1.91.60.5--254.71.8
Rev LTM402686160-470,428402
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM3441021-618,94421
FCF 3Y Avg354-68338--016,90438
CFO LTM3444724-621,13947
CFO 3Y Avg356-66440--018,80140

Growth & Margins

AGMMBINKRNYGFCXSUIGAXPMedian
NameFederal .Merchant.Kearny F.GoodFait.Sui American. 
Rev Chg LTM12.2%8.5%19.3%-76.6%9.1%12.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.4%16.6%-7.1%-0.3%11.6%11.4%
Rev Chg Q15.3%14.4%17.5%-250.4%10.8%15.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.6%3.2%4.2%-49.0%2.6%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM85.5%6.8%14.8%-158.3%30.0%30.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg98.1%-127.8%25.6%--15.0%29.2%25.6%
FCF/Rev LTM85.5%1.5%13.3%-158.3%26.9%26.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg97.6%-130.7%24.3%--15.0%26.3%24.3%

Valuation

AGMMBINKRNYGFCXSUIGAXPMedian
NameFederal .Merchant.Kearny F.GoodFait.Sui American. 
Mkt Cap1.91.60.5--254.71.8
P/S4.62.12.6--3.32.9
P/EBIT-------
P/E8.55.914.0--21.811.2
P/CFO5.331.317.4--10.914.1
Total Yield11.8%16.9%8.8%--4.6%10.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.7%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg20.3%-55.8%8.8%--10.7%9.7%
D/E17.02.02.9--0.32.5
Net D/E15.71.10.1--0.00.6

Returns

AGMMBINKRNYGFCXSUIGAXPMedian
NameFederal .Merchant.Kearny F.GoodFait.Sui American. 
1M Rtn11.9%9.9%15.8%--29.1%1.8%9.9%
3M Rtn-12.9%7.5%12.4%--67.1%14.0%7.5%
6M Rtn-4.5%10.6%28.9%--25.0%17.8%
12M Rtn-14.2%-12.9%-0.3%--23.2%-6.6%
3Y Rtn54.5%40.2%-5.8%--143.8%47.3%
1M Excs Rtn11.9%9.9%15.8%--29.1%1.8%9.9%
3M Excs Rtn-18.7%-0.5%7.3%--72.5%6.3%-0.5%
6M Excs Rtn-19.2%-4.2%14.1%--10.3%3.1%
12M Excs Rtn-28.1%-29.1%-13.3%--8.6%-20.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-17.7%-29.2%-76.7%--80.5%-23.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Farm & Ranch18,80914,62413,11212,3745,408
Power & Utilities6,9805,8685,3454,7611,717
Unallocated assets5,764    
Corporate AgFinance1,6941,5411,5081,664 
Broadband Infrastructure501    
Renewable Energy4882208873 
Funding00   
Investments04,8065,0135,441 
Off-balance sheet assets under management-4,710    
Corporate 27556433,665
Reconciling Adjustments 0   
Institutional Credit    8,607
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Guarantees    2,312
Total29,52427,33325,12124,35621,709


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity245,569
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.7%
Average Daily Volume96,529
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.54
Basic Shares Quantity10,934,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ramsey GregoryPrincipal Accounting Officer8282025Sell206.711,500310,065637,701Form
1NORDHOLM BRADFORD TPresident and CEO8282025Sell206.124,224870,6496,754,629Form
2Carpenter ZacharyEVP - Chief Business Officer8282025Sell205.0929360,0902,159,972Form
3NORDHOLM BRADFORD TPresident and CEO6122025Sell190.623,501667,3667,928,991Form
4McKissack Eric T6092025Sell192.37728140,046453,420Form