Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $180.41 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $180.41Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1566% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Agricultural & Rural Financial Systems. Themes include Agricultural Mortgage Finance, and Rural Capital Access. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 86% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Agricultural & Rural Financial Systems. Themes include Agricultural Mortgage Finance, and Rural Capital Access. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 1566% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AGM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (symbol: AGM) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 14.9% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this movement:
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: On November 3, 2025, Federal Agricultural Mortgage reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue coming in at $97.77 million, which was below analysts' expectations of $100.94 million.
2. Sequential Decline in Q3 2025 Earnings: The company's Q3 2025 earnings were reported at $48.7 million, representing a 1% decrease from the previous quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGM Return | -7% | 73% | -6% | 75% | 6% | -9% | 155% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 35% | -13% | 25% | 8% | 5% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGM Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 75% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 54% | 29% | 35% | 46% | 32% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGM Max Drawdown | -48% | 0% | -25% | 0% | -10% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -2% | -19% | -11% | -14% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MBIN, KRNY, GFCX, SUIG, AXP. See AGM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 814 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -93.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1385.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1544 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MBIN, KRNY, GFCX, SUIG, AXP
In The Past
Federal Agricultural Mortgage's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AGM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Federal Agricultural Mortgage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 402 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 21 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 38 |
| CFO LTM | 47 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 40 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 11.2 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| D/E | 2.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farm & Ranch | 18,809 | 14,624 | 13,112 | 12,374 | 5,408 |
| Power & Utilities | 6,980 | 5,868 | 5,345 | 4,761 | 1,717 |
| Unallocated assets | 5,764 | ||||
| Corporate AgFinance | 1,694 | 1,541 | 1,508 | 1,664 | |
| Broadband Infrastructure | 501 | ||||
| Renewable Energy | 488 | 220 | 88 | 73 | |
| Funding | 0 | 0 | |||
| Investments | 0 | 4,806 | 5,013 | 5,441 | |
| Off-balance sheet assets under management | -4,710 | ||||
| Corporate | 275 | 56 | 43 | 3,665 | |
| Reconciling Adjustments | 0 | ||||
| Institutional Credit | 8,607 | ||||
| United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Guarantees | 2,312 | ||||
| Total | 29,524 | 27,333 | 25,121 | 24,356 | 21,709 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Ramsey Gregory | Principal Accounting Officer | 8282025 | Sell | 206.71 | 1,500 | 310,065 | 637,701 | Form |
| 1 | NORDHOLM BRADFORD T | President and CEO | 8282025 | Sell | 206.12 | 4,224 | 870,649 | 6,754,629 | Form |
| 2 | Carpenter Zachary | EVP - Chief Business Officer | 8282025 | Sell | 205.09 | 293 | 60,090 | 2,159,972 | Form |
| 3 | NORDHOLM BRADFORD T | President and CEO | 6122025 | Sell | 190.62 | 3,501 | 667,366 | 7,928,991 | Form |
| 4 | McKissack Eric T | 6092025 | Sell | 192.37 | 728 | 140,046 | 453,420 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |