Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $33.18 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
Market Price (9/17/2026): $33.18Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7% Key risksAXTA key risks include [1] declining sales volumes from persistent destocking and weakness in its key Performance Coatings segment and [2] a substantial debt burden that could challenge its ability to meet financial obligations. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7% |
| Key risksAXTA key risks include [1] declining sales volumes from persistent destocking and weakness in its key Performance Coatings segment and [2] a substantial debt burden that could challenge its ability to meet financial obligations. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/15/2026
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations. Axalta reported robust second-quarter 2026 results (fiscal Q2 2026 ended June 30, 2026), significantly surpassing analyst estimates. The company achieved adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by 10.8%. Additionally, revenue reached $1.35 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.31 billion by approximately 3.1%. Axalta also delivered a record Adjusted EBITDA of $305 million, a 5% increase year over year, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 22.7%, up 30 basis points from the prior year. Adjusted net income, excluding merger-related costs, grew 10% year over year to $153 million. This strong financial showing, coupled with a 6% year-over-year increase in Refinish net sales and improved free cash flow of $107 million (up 6% year over year), demonstrated the company's operational excellence and financial health.
2. Shareholder Approval of AkzoNobel Merger Signaled Future Growth Potential. Axalta shareholders overwhelmingly approved the all-stock merger of equals with AkzoNobel at a special meeting on August 5, 2026. This strategic merger, anticipated to close in late 2026 to early 2027, is viewed positively by the market as it is expected to create a larger, more diversified global coatings company with potential for significant synergies and enhanced market position.
Show more
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations. Axalta reported robust second-quarter 2026 results (fiscal Q2 2026 ended June 30, 2026), significantly surpassing analyst estimates. The company achieved adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by 10.8%. Additionally, revenue reached $1.35 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.31 billion by approximately 3.1%. Axalta also delivered a record Adjusted EBITDA of $305 million, a 5% increase year over year, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 22.7%, up 30 basis points from the prior year. Adjusted net income, excluding merger-related costs, grew 10% year over year to $153 million. This strong financial showing, coupled with a 6% year-over-year increase in Refinish net sales and improved free cash flow of $107 million (up 6% year over year), demonstrated the company's operational excellence and financial health.
2. Shareholder Approval of AkzoNobel Merger Signaled Future Growth Potential. Axalta shareholders overwhelmingly approved the all-stock merger of equals with AkzoNobel at a special meeting on August 5, 2026. This strategic merger, anticipated to close in late 2026 to early 2027, is viewed positively by the market as it is expected to create a larger, more diversified global coatings company with potential for significant synergies and enhanced market position.
Show more
Updated on 9/15/2026
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations. Axalta reported robust second-quarter 2026 results (fiscal Q2 2026 ended June 30, 2026), significantly surpassing analyst estimates. The company achieved adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by 10.8%. Additionally, revenue reached $1.35 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.31 billion by approximately 3.1%. Axalta also delivered a record Adjusted EBITDA of $305 million, a 5% increase year over year, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 22.7%, up 30 basis points from the prior year. Adjusted net income, excluding merger-related costs, grew 10% year over year to $153 million. This strong financial showing, coupled with a 6% year-over-year increase in Refinish net sales and improved free cash flow of $107 million (up 6% year over year), demonstrated the company's operational excellence and financial health.
2. Shareholder Approval of AkzoNobel Merger Signaled Future Growth Potential. Axalta shareholders overwhelmingly approved the all-stock merger of equals with AkzoNobel at a special meeting on August 5, 2026. This strategic merger, anticipated to close in late 2026 to early 2027, is viewed positively by the market as it is expected to create a larger, more diversified global coatings company with potential for significant synergies and enhanced market position.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets Increased Investor Confidence. Following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and the merger approval, several financial analysts upgraded their ratings and raised price targets for Axalta stock. For instance, BMO Capital Markets increased its price target from $35.00 to $39.00 on July 29, 2026, and Mizuho similarly raised its target from $32.00 to $39.00 on July 1, 2026. Furthermore, KeyCorp upgraded Axalta to a "strong buy" rating on September 11, 2026, issuing optimistic earnings estimates for future fiscal quarters and years. The average 1-year price target among brokerages ranged from approximately $36.00 to $38.79, reflecting growing analyst confidence in the company's outlook.
Show less
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Expectations. Axalta reported robust second-quarter 2026 results (fiscal Q2 2026 ended June 30, 2026), significantly surpassing analyst estimates. The company achieved adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by 10.8%. Additionally, revenue reached $1.35 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.31 billion by approximately 3.1%. Axalta also delivered a record Adjusted EBITDA of $305 million, a 5% increase year over year, with the Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 22.7%, up 30 basis points from the prior year. Adjusted net income, excluding merger-related costs, grew 10% year over year to $153 million. This strong financial showing, coupled with a 6% year-over-year increase in Refinish net sales and improved free cash flow of $107 million (up 6% year over year), demonstrated the company's operational excellence and financial health.
2. Shareholder Approval of AkzoNobel Merger Signaled Future Growth Potential. Axalta shareholders overwhelmingly approved the all-stock merger of equals with AkzoNobel at a special meeting on August 5, 2026. This strategic merger, anticipated to close in late 2026 to early 2027, is viewed positively by the market as it is expected to create a larger, more diversified global coatings company with potential for significant synergies and enhanced market position.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets Increased Investor Confidence. Following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and the merger approval, several financial analysts upgraded their ratings and raised price targets for Axalta stock. For instance, BMO Capital Markets increased its price target from $35.00 to $39.00 on July 29, 2026, and Mizuho similarly raised its target from $32.00 to $39.00 on July 1, 2026. Furthermore, KeyCorp upgraded Axalta to a "strong buy" rating on September 11, 2026, issuing optimistic earnings estimates for future fiscal quarters and years. The average 1-year price target among brokerages ranged from approximately $36.00 to $38.79, reflecting growing analyst confidence in the company's outlook.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.2% change in AXTA stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.77 | 33.29 | 8.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,109 | 5,150 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 6.8% | -6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 20.4 | 14.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 214 | 214 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 8.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | 42.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | -1.5% | 66.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.4% change in AXTA stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.41 | 33.29 | -0.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,117 | 5,150 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 6.8% | -8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 20.4 | 8.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 213 | 214 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTA | -0.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.2% | 56.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | -5.3% | 69.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.5% change in AXTA stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.26 | 33.29 | 6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,198 | 5,150 | -0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 6.8% | -21.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 20.4 | 33.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 218 | 214 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.7% | 61.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.6% change in AXTA stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.30 | 33.29 | 17.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,053 | 5,150 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 6.8% | 49.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 20.4 | -25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 222 | 214 | 3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 17.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 53.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 28.2% | 67.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXTA Return | 16% | -23% | 33% | 1% | -6% | 3% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -21% | 20% | 2% | -4% | 3% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXTA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 37% | 43% | 55% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -37% | -24% | -18% | -31% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -38% | -19% | -18% | -29% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SHW, PPG, RPM, DD, EMN. See AXTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 483 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Axalta Coating Systems's stock fell -22.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 29.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AXTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 483 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 395 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Axalta Coating Systems's stock fell -22.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 29.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. is a global manufacturer and distributor of high-performance liquid and powder coatings systems. The company operates through two primary segments: Performance Coatings and Transportation Coatings, serving a diverse range of industries and customers worldwide.
The Performance Coatings segment focuses on two main areas. Firstly, it provides water and solvent-borne products and systems used for repairing damaged vehicles, supplying independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. Secondly, it offers functional and decorative liquid and powder coatings for various industrial applications, including architectural cladding, general industrial uses, automotive components (non-OEM), HVAC, appliances, industrial wood, and coil coatings.
Through its Transportation Coatings segment, Axalta develops and supplies critical coatings such as electrocoat, primer, basecoat, and clearcoat products directly to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). These products are integral to the production of new light vehicles, commercial vehicles (heavy-duty trucks, buses), and rail transport, positioning Axalta as a key supplier in the new vehicle manufacturing process.
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Here are a few analogies to describe Axalta Coating Systems:
- Think of Axalta as the Sherwin-Williams of high-tech paint for cars and factories.
- They are like 3M, but exclusively focused on creating specialized, high-performance coatings for vehicles and industrial equipment.
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- Automotive Refinish Coatings: Water and solvent-borne product systems used to repair damaged vehicles for body shops.
- Industrial Liquid Coatings: Functional and decorative liquid coatings applied in diverse industrial sectors such as architectural, general manufacturing, HVAC, appliances, and wood products.
- Industrial Powder Coatings: Functional and decorative powder coatings utilized in various industrial applications, including architectural cladding, general industrial goods, and pipelines.
- Light Vehicle OEM Coatings: Electrocoat, primer, basecoat, and clearcoat products supplied directly to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for light vehicles.
- Commercial Vehicle OEM Coatings: Comprehensive coatings systems developed for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of heavy-duty trucks, buses, and rail vehicles.
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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) primarily sells its high-performance coating systems to other companies (B2B) across various industries rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories of businesses:
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Vehicle Repair Industry: This category includes independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) dealership body shops. These businesses utilize Axalta's water and solvent-borne products and systems for repairing damaged vehicles.
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Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) of Vehicles: Axalta develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light vehicles, commercial vehicles (such as heavy-duty trucks, buses, and rail), and other commercial applications.
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Industrial Manufacturers and Fabricators: This broad category encompasses companies in diverse industrial applications that use Axalta's functional and decorative liquid and powder coatings. Examples include manufacturers of architectural cladding and fittings, general industrial products, HVAC systems, appliances, industrial wood products, coil, oil and gas pipelines, building materials, cabinets, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture. This also includes "job coaters" who apply coatings for various industrial clients.
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Chris Villavarayan - Chief Executive Officer and President
Mr. Villavarayan has served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Axalta since January 2023. He previously spent 22 years at Meritor, Inc., holding various positions of increasing responsibility, including CEO and President. During his tenure, he led Meritor through its acquisition by Cummins Inc. in August 2022. Mr. Villavarayan has extensive international experience and a background in executing and integrating accretive acquisitions, as well as leading teams to drive transformational change.
Carl Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Anderson was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Axalta in August 2023. Before joining Axalta, he served as CFO for XPO, Inc. from November 2022. Prior to XPO, Mr. Anderson spent over 16 years at Meritor, Inc., a global supplier for commercial vehicle manufacturers, where he held the CFO role for more than three years and other financial leadership positions. He possesses extensive experience in building finance and investor relations functions and a proven track record in spearheading growth and shareholder value creation initiatives, including mergers and acquisitions, improving supply chain efficiency, and driving expansion into new markets.
Hadi Awada - President, Global Mobility Coatings
Mr. Awada serves as the President of Global Mobility Coatings for Axalta.
Tim Bowes - President, Global Industrial Coatings
Mr. Bowes has served as Axalta's President, Global Industrial Coatings since January 2025. He joined Axalta in February 2023 as Senior Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer. Mr. Bowes brings over 20 years of progressive operational leadership and strategy experience from the Industrial, Commercial Vehicle, and Automotive markets. Prior to Axalta, he was the Senior Vice President and President of Electrification, Industrial, Aftermarket, Purchasing & Supply Chain for Meritor.
Mark Dixon - Senior Vice President, Operational Excellence & Chief Procurement Officer
Mr. Dixon has been Axalta's Senior Vice President, Operational Excellence & Chief Procurement Officer since January 2025. He joined Axalta in 2022 as Chief Procurement Officer. Before his time at Axalta, he held the position of SVP and Chief Procurement Officer for Jeld-Wen and Milacron LLC, and also served as Global Director of Sourcing and Supply Chain at Eaton Corporation.
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Key Risks to Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
- Soft Demand and Volume Weakness in Key End Markets: Axalta has experienced and continues to face challenges from a softer demand environment and volume declines, particularly within its Performance Coatings segment. This includes reduced activity in the North American refinish market due to lower collision claims, and weakness in the industrial segment. Analysts anticipate that this destocking trend and demand softness could persist for several quarters, impacting future revenue growth and operating performance.
- Raw Material Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: The cost of raw materials constitutes the single largest component of Axalta's production expenses. The company is susceptible to significant impacts from fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for petroleum-based products, as well as broader supply chain disruptions. Such volatility can lead to increased operational costs, necessitate price increases to customers which may affect competitiveness, and potentially lead to production delays or loss of market share if not managed effectively.
- High Leverage: Axalta maintains a notable debt load, with approximately $3.4 billion in total debt as of mid-2025, primarily long-term. Its debt-to-equity ratio, reported at 1.51 in Q3 2025, indicates a relatively high level of leverage. This financial structure can result in higher interest expenses and reduce the company's financial flexibility, especially during periods of economic downturn or sustained softness in earnings momentum.
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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) operates in several addressable markets for its high-performance coating systems.
Addressable Markets for Axalta Coating Systems' Main Products and Services:
-
Automotive Refinish Coatings:
- The global automotive refinish coatings market was estimated at approximately USD 12.83 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.06 billion by 2030.
- In North America, this market is predicted to reach USD 5 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. automotive refinish coatings market was valued at USD 3.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 4.6 billion by 2032.
- The European automotive refinish coatings market size was valued at USD 2.9 billion in 2025.
- The Asia Pacific region was the largest revenue-generating market for automotive refinish coatings in 2024, holding a 44.2% share in 2023.
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Industrial Coatings:
- The global industrial coatings market was valued at around USD 107.19 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 132.18 billion by 2030.
- The Asia Pacific region leads this market. It dominated with a 39.82% revenue share in 2024.
- The general industrial segment, which includes various industrial applications such as coil, packaging, construction, agriculture, and wood, dominated the market with a 33.6% revenue share in 2024.
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Automotive OEM Coatings (Light and Commercial Vehicles):
- The global automotive OEM coatings market was valued at USD 11.5 billion in 2023 and is forecast to reach USD 16.8 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. Automotive OEM Coatings Market was estimated at USD 1.96 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3.46 billion by 2030.
- The Europe Automotive OEM Coatings Market stood at USD 2.07 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 2.80 billion by 2030.
- Within the global automotive OEM coatings market, passenger cars dominated with over 60% share in 2023.
- Light commercial vehicles accounted for approximately 20% of the automotive OEM coatings market in 2023, while heavy commercial vehicles represented about 10% of the market in the same year.
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Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Positive Price and Product Mix: The company anticipates continued revenue growth through favorable pricing strategies and an optimized product mix. This focus on "positive price mix" and "strategic pricing actions" is expected to contribute to top-line expansion.
- Volume Recovery and Market Stabilization: After experiencing lower volumes in late 2025 and early 2026, Axalta projects "higher volumes in the second half" of 2026. This recovery is anticipated to be supported by factors such as "interest rate reductions and easing insurance costs," alongside a projected "stabilization in the refinish market by Q2 2026."
- Growth in Mobility Coatings and Emerging Markets: Axalta has secured "net new wins in Mobility Coatings," with notable expansion observed in "Latin America and China." This geographic and segment-specific growth is expected to contribute to overall revenue.
- Synergies from AkzoNobel Merger: The announced "merger of equals with AkzoNobel" is a significant long-term growth driver, with a target of approximately "$600 million in synergies." While the merger is anticipated to close in late 2026 or early 2027, the strategic benefits are expected to influence future revenue generation.
- Operational Efficiency and Cost Management: Axalta's sustained focus on "operational execution," "cost management," and "structural cost savings" is expected to drive profitability and indirectly support revenue growth by allowing for competitive positioning and investment in growth initiatives.
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Share Repurchases
- Axalta authorized an increase in its common share repurchase program by $625 million in April 2021, bringing the total program to $1.3 billion.
- In 2025, the company returned $165 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
- Axalta repurchased 3.3 million shares for $100 million in Q3 2025 and had plans to deploy up to an additional $250 million in share repurchases in Q4 2025, before suspending the program in November 2025 due to the announced merger with AkzoNobel.
Inbound Investments
- In November 2025, Axalta announced a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock merger of equals with AkzoNobel, forming a premier global coatings company valued at approximately $25 billion.
- Upon completion of the merger, expected in late 2026 to early 2027, AkzoNobel shareholders will own 55% and Axalta shareholders will own 45% of the combined company.
Outbound Investments
- Axalta acquired CoverFlexx, a provider of automotive coating equipment, for $285 million in May 2024.
- In December 2023, Axalta acquired Andre Koch (undisclosed amount).
- The company acquired U-POL for $592 million in July 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Axalta were $196 million in fiscal year 2025, an increase from $140 million in 2024 and $137.9 million in 2023.
- The increase in capital expenditures in 2025 was primarily driven by investments in productivity within its manufacturing sites.
- Axalta anticipates capital expenditures to be between $180 million and $200 million for fiscal year 2026, contributing to sustained productivity gains.
Peer Outperformance in Specialty Chemicals
AXTA has outperformed 68% of its 40 Specialty Chemicals peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is NEU. Specialty Chemicals ranks 10th of 15 industries in Materials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Specialty Chemicals constituents that AXTA has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
47%
of 45 industry peers · 8.1% return
3Y
65%
of 43 industry peers · 21.5% return
5Y
68%
of 40 industry peers · 16.5% return
Specialty Chemicals peers with revenue growth within 4pp of AXTA's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 0.7% | 20.4x | 8.1% | 21.5% | 16.5% | — |
| NEU | NewMarket | -0.3% | 18.8x | 11.1% | 107.7% | 204.6% | +188pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Materials sector, ranked by 5Y. Specialty Chemicals is AXTA's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 70.0% | 74.7% | 300.1% | COPR 980% · HBM 348% · TGB 325% |
| Steel | 13 | 17.4% | 32.6% | 167.7% | HCC 339% · STLD 315% · NWPX 310% |
| Gold | 34 | 23.0% | 186.2% | 150.9% | IAG 736% · KGC 453% · OGC 417% |
| Silver | 6 | 97.4% | 291.3% | 147.1% | AYA 282% · HL 229% · SVM 177% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 52.8% | 119.4% | 63.2% | CENX 205% · KALU 63% · AA 0% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -22.4% | 18.7% | 49.6% | USLM 365% · CRH 82% · SMID 51% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -18.5% | -8.3% | 12.5% | ATLX 203471% · USAR 50571% · TII 686% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | -7.7% | 3.0% | 5.9% | KRT 213% · MYE 81% · GEF 55% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 6.1% | 5.8% | -9.1% | PKG 90% · CCK 12% · SON -3% |
| Specialty Chemicals ← | 41 | 9.5% | -6.1% | -10.0% | ODC 466% · NEU 205% · CMT 91% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 14.4% | -14.9% | -25.3% | HWKN 280% · KOP 64% · MEOH 55% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -5.3% | -29.3% | -28.2% | CBT 75% · ASH -14% · CC -43% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -11.9% | -8.0% | -34.8% | CF 199% · CTVA 105% · NTR 47% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 31.5% | 157.1% | -36.9% | ASM 594% · PPTA 367% · MTA 32% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -22.7% | -50.0% | -96.0% | CLW -37% · ITP -96% · MERC -96% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| Rev LTM | 8,364 |
| Op Inc LTM | 921 |
| FCF LTM | 607 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 612 |
| CFO LTM | 1,016 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,017 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.9 |
| P/EBIT | 11.7 |
| P/E | 19.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performance Coatings | 3,277 | 3,455 | 3,408 | 3,326 | 3,096 |
| Mobility Coatings | 1,840 | 1,821 | 1,776 | 1,558 | 1,320 |
| Total | 5,117 | 5,276 | 5,184 | 4,884 | 4,416 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Performance Coatings | 788 | 838 | 742 |
| Mobility Coatings | 340 | 278 | 209 |
| Merger and acquisition-related costs | 32 | -11 | -3 |
| Stock-based compensation | 25 | -28 | -26 |
| Termination benefits and other employee-related costs | 23 | -67 | -18 |
| Debt extinguishment and refinancing-related costs | -2 | -5 | -10 |
| Interest expense, net | -176 | ||
| Depreciation and amortization | -295 | -280 | -276 |
| Foreign exchange remeasurement losses | -11 | -23 | |
| Long-term employee benefit plan adjustments | -9 | ||
| Other adjustments | 1 | ||
| Site closure costs | -7 | ||
| Total | 735 | 706 | 588 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $33.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/12/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.02 | $32.00 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.9% | 4.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| Downside Capture | 205.24 | 135.23 |
| Upside Capture | 175.32 | 122.00 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.6% | 43.6% |
AXTA Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.86 | 1.66 | 0.90 | 1.44 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 1.08 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 1.84 | 1.34 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 2.78 | 1.87 | 0.51 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Up Capture | 195% | 234% | 172% | 153% | 126% | 96% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 61 | 126 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 269% | 203% | 88% | 143% | 116% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 30 | 65 | 124 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 7.8% | 32.2% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.4% | 17.8% | 0.50 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 12.8% | 0.82 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 29.3% | 0.50 | 21.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.7% | 1.76 | -44.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.5% | 0.10 | 37.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.6% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 9.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 3.4% | 30.9% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.7% | 19.1% | 0.19 | 71.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.3% | 17.2% | 0.54 | 61.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 11.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 19.6% | 0.46 | -1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 52.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AXTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTA | 1.8% | 32.4% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.6% | 20.7% | 0.41 | 67.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 60.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.3% | 0.59 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 53.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| 4/30/2026 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 9.1% |
| 2/10/2026 | 0.6% | 2.2% | -17.1% |
| 10/28/2025 | 2.2% | -3.3% | 2.4% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 9.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -4.7% | -0.7% | -8.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 8.3% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 8.2% | 8.5% | 14.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.3% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.4% | -9.5% | -17.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| 4/30/2026 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 9.1% |
| 2/10/2026 | 0.6% | 2.2% | -17.1% |
| 10/28/2025 | 2.2% | -3.3% | 2.4% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 9.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -4.7% | -0.7% | -8.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 8.3% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 8.2% | 8.5% | 14.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 2.8% | -6.2% | 0.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | 8.8% | 15.1% | 10.2% |
| 2/8/2024 | -4.6% | -4.5% | 1.8% |
| 11/1/2023 | 8.1% | 10.7% | 20.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | -8.4% | -9.5% | -11.6% |
| 5/2/2023 | -4.0% | -1.4% | -3.7% |
| 1/25/2023 | 4.8% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
| 10/25/2022 | -0.1% | -0.6% | 12.3% |
| 7/26/2022 | -4.2% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 4/25/2022 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| 1/31/2022 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -11.6% |
| 10/25/2021 | -2.3% | -4.0% | 1.3% |
| 7/26/2021 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 5.4% |
| 4/26/2021 | -0.2% | -0.5% | -3.5% |
| 2/1/2021 | -0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% |
| 10/21/2020 | 3.9% | -3.3% | 9.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.3% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -8.4% | -9.5% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/29/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 5.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 285.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.7 | 7.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.65 for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 305.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 305.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.16 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.16 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Interest Expense | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate, As Adjusted | Reported | 24.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.62 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.62 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted Shares Outstanding | Reported | 215.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 215.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 190.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 190.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 0.0% | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.0% for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 280.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 290.00 Mil | 16.3% | Raised | Guidance: 245.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.65 | 30.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.5 for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 305.00 Mil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 2.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.14 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.16 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest Expense | Reported | 150.00 Mil | -3.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 155.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate, As Adjusted | Reported | 24.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 24.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.55 | 2.62 | 2.7 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.62 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted Shares Outstanding | Reported | 215.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 215.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 190.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 240.00 Mil | 245.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.5 | ||||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 300.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.14 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 1.3% | Higher New | Actual: 1.14 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest Expense | Reported | 150.00 Mil | 155.00 Mil | 160.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Tax Rate, As Adjusted | Reported | 24.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.55 | 2.62 | 2.7 | 5.0% | Higher New | Actual: 2.5 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted Shares Outstanding | Reported | 215 | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | 11.1% | Higher New | Actual: 450.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 284.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.6 | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Share Repurchases | Reported | 250.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Net Sales | Reported | 5.10 Bil | -2.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.24 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.14 Bil | -1.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.5 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.5 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 450.00 Mil | -7.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 487.50 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufano, Amy | SVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 31.06 | 3,194 | 99,206 | 375,422 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tufano, Amy | SVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 31.06 | 3,194 | 99,206 | 375,422 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 17, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFTHDELTA Ltd | $111.0 Mil | 15.3% | 11 | ADD +41.6% | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $51.6 Mil | 6.7% | 17 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $25.5 Mil | 2.5% | 41 | ADD +9.7% | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $32.8 Mil | 2.0% | 50 | TRIM -60.5% | 13F |
| Sessa Capital IM, L.P. | $61.6 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | ADD +11.5% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.0% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $64.1 Mil | 1.6% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sand Grove Capital Management LLP | $15.5 Mil | 5.2% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| 12th Street Asset Management Company, LLC | $7.4 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $32.8 Mil | 2.0% | 50 | TRIM -60.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $51.6 Mil | 6.7% | 17 | TRIM -14.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFTHDELTA Ltd | $111.0 Mil | 15.3% | 11 | ADD +41.6% | 13F |
| Sessa Capital IM, L.P. | $61.6 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | ADD +11.5% | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $51.6 Mil | 6.7% | 17 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $32.8 Mil | 2.0% | 50 | TRIM -60.5% | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $25.5 Mil | 2.5% | 41 | ADD +9.7% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.0% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
Axalta Coating Systems — Investor Video Playlist
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Axalta Excellence by Design. Join us for Episode 2: How to Create More Booth Cycles.
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New Training Series: Axalta Excellence by Design | Episode 1: Paint Shop Productivity Tips
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Scan Smarter with Axalta Irus Scan!
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Axalta 2024 Year in Review
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Industry-leading Innovation
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Axalta NextJet™ – the Pinnacle of Process and Paint
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