Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $331.92 | Market Cap: $81.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $331.92Market Cap: $81.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | Key risksSHW key risks include [1] high sensitivity to housing market downturns, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x |
| Key risksSHW key risks include [1] high sensitivity to housing market downturns, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SHW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested period of 8/31/2025 to December 18, 2025, is in the future. As such, it is not possible to provide factual reasons for a stock movement that has not yet occurred. However, based on available forward-looking statements and analyses for Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and the broader market, several factors could hypothetically contribute to a significant stock decline if such an event were to transpire in the future.
Here are potential key points that *could* lead to a negative stock movement for Sherwin-Williams:
1. Weakness in Housing Market and Demand: Analysts and company executives have expressed concerns about persistent weakness in the housing market, including both existing and new home sales. A continued slowdown in do-it-yourself (DIY) project spending and overall demand "choppiness" across key markets could negatively impact Sherwin-Williams' revenue and profits. This environment could persist into late 2025 or even 2026.
2. Disappointing Financial Outlook and Guidance: Sherwin-Williams has provided cautious outlooks for future periods. For instance, the company narrowed its 2025 EPS outlook, indicating that the market might remain "softer for longer." While Q4 2024 earnings beat expectations, the company's revenue missed, and the guidance for 2025 was described as "soft." A reduced profit guidance has previously led to drops in premarket trading.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHW Return | 27% | 45% | -32% | 33% | 10% | -3% | 78% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 14% | -19% | 13% | 4% | -12% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHW Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 52% | 42% | 43% | 53% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHW Max Drawdown | -32% | -10% | -42% | -12% | -6% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -7% | -32% | -12% | -15% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMM, PPG, DOW, RPM, EMN. See SHW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 648 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 171 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MMM, PPG, DOW, RPM, EMN
In The Past
Sherwin-Williams's stock fell -42.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -42.9% loss requires a 75.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SHW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.6% | 0.6% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 45.1% | 45.1% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.6% | 6.6% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.9% | 5.9% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.6% | 0.6% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 45.1% | 45.1% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.6% | 6.6% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sherwin-Williams
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 105.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| Rev LTM | 19,483 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,681 |
| FCF LTM | 615 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,058 |
| CFO LTM | 1,481 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,525 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 22.8 |
| P/CFO | 18.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Stores Group | 12,840 | 11,963 | 11,217 | 10,383 | 10,172 |
| Consumer Brands Group | 8,600 | 8,603 | 7,133 | 6,742 | 6,284 |
| Performance Coatings Group | 7,041 | 6,997 | 6,154 | 5,060 | 5,165 |
| Administrative | -5,428 | -5,415 | -4,559 | -3,823 | -3,720 |
| Total | 23,052 | 22,149 | 19,945 | 18,362 | 17,901 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performance Coatings Group | 8,267 | 8,297 | 8,389 | 8,071 | 8,176 |
| Consumer Brands Group | 6,632 | 6,750 | 5,161 | 5,387 | 5,601 |
| Paint Stores Group | 5,745 | 5,874 | 5,628 | 5,387 | 5,399 |
| Administrative | 2,311 | 1,674 | 1,489 | 1,556 | 1,321 |
| Total | 22,954 | 22,594 | 20,667 | 20,402 | 20,496 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.4% | -1.5% | 8.0% |
| 4/29/2025 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% |
| 1/30/2025 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | -5.3% | -4.8% | -2.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | -2.2% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
| 1/25/2024 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 7.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 3.1% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -1.8% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 9.4% | 16.3% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -7.7% | -14.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |