Tearsheet

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $58.3 | Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $58.3
Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 8.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  Key risks
SMG key risks include [1] declining performance in its Hawthorne segment tied to a cannabis market oversupply and [2] a substantial debt load limiting its financial flexibility.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.8%, Dividend Yield is 4.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 8.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 69%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.6%
7 Key risks
SMG key risks include [1] declining performance in its Hawthorne segment tied to a cannabis market oversupply and [2] a substantial debt load limiting its financial flexibility.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining potential factors for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025: 1. Scotts Miracle-Gro's Q4 2025 revenue fell short of analyst expectations. The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $387.4 million, missing analyst forecasts which ranged from $396.2 million to $398.6 million.

2. The company experienced an overall decline in net sales for Q4 2025. Total net sales for the fourth fiscal quarter decreased by approximately 6.6% year over year. Additionally, full-year fiscal 2025 net sales were down 4% compared to fiscal 2024.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMG Return96%-18%-69%37%8%-9%-32%
Peers Return54%15%-4%5%3%-13%61%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMG Win Rate58%33%25%42%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate60%55%52%50%52%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMG Max Drawdown-27%-32%-74%-7%-16%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-9%-24%-21%-12%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CENT, FMC, CTVA, SPB, ROL. See SMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven527.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven219 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven646 days1,480 days

Compare to ECL, ROL, FMC, CTVA, NTR


In The Past

Scotts Miracle Gro's stock fell -84.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2021. A -84.1% loss requires a 527.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)

Better Bets than Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.6%7.6%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
47.0%47.0%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%24.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-2.5%
SMG_12312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312021SMGScotts Miracle GroDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-49.6%-68.8%-74.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.6%7.6%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%0.2%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
47.0%47.0%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%24.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-2.5%
SMG_12312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312021SMGScotts Miracle GroDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-49.6%-68.8%-74.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Scotts Miracle Gro

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMGCENTFMCCTVASPBROLMedian
NameScotts M.Central .FMC Corteva Spectrum.Rollins  
Mkt Price58.6632.0213.3266.3159.7460.0659.20
Mkt Cap3.42.01.745.01.429.12.7
Rev LTM3,4133,1293,60817,4692,8093,6803,511
Op Inc LTM4222504332,716149717428
FCF LTM274291-4092,669165675282
FCF 3Y Avg432324-401,421-62561378
CFO LTM371333-3183,219204702352
CFO 3Y Avg523370621,990-14591446

Growth & Margins

SMGCENTFMCCTVASPBROLMedian
NameScotts M.Central .FMC Corteva Spectrum.Rollins  
Rev Chg LTM-3.9%-2.2%-13.4%5.0%-5.2%11.2%-3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.5%-2.1%-13.6%0.8%-3.5%11.8%-2.8%
Rev Chg Q-6.6%1.3%-49.1%12.6%-5.2%12.0%-1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.8%0.3%-12.7%1.7%-1.4%3.1%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM12.4%8.0%12.0%15.5%5.3%19.5%12.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.7%6.7%15.4%13.0%3.9%19.4%10.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%0.8%-4.8%0.9%0.5%0.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM10.9%10.6%-8.8%18.4%7.2%19.1%10.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.9%11.5%1.2%11.6%-0.4%17.7%11.6%
FCF/Rev LTM8.0%9.3%-11.3%15.3%5.9%18.3%8.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.3%10.1%-1.2%8.3%-2.1%16.8%9.2%

Valuation

SMGCENTFMCCTVASPBROLMedian
NameScotts M.Central .FMC Corteva Spectrum.Rollins  
Mkt Cap3.42.01.745.01.429.12.7
P/S1.00.60.52.60.57.90.8
P/EBIT9.77.2758.018.012.240.615.1
P/E23.412.1-3.128.014.356.418.8
P/CFO9.15.9-5.314.07.041.58.1
Total Yield8.8%8.2%-23.3%3.8%8.6%2.9%6.0%
Dividend Yield4.5%0.0%8.7%0.3%1.6%1.1%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.7%14.4%-2.1%3.2%0.3%2.4%2.8%
D/E0.70.72.70.10.50.00.6
Net D/E0.70.32.40.00.40.00.3

Returns

SMGCENTFMCCTVASPBROLMedian
NameScotts M.Central .FMC Corteva Spectrum.Rollins  
1M Rtn10.1%5.1%5.0%2.8%10.2%1.2%5.0%
3M Rtn2.3%-8.2%-62.6%-6.2%14.4%8.5%-1.9%
6M Rtn-2.9%-7.0%-66.5%-9.6%16.6%7.0%-5.0%
12M Rtn-8.8%-20.9%-70.5%19.3%-28.0%29.3%-14.9%
3Y Rtn40.1%7.0%-87.9%16.4%9.0%68.3%12.7%
1M Excs Rtn7.2%2.2%2.1%-0.1%7.3%-1.7%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-0.4%-7.8%-64.0%-6.8%13.4%6.3%-3.6%
6M Excs Rtn-18.9%-22.4%-81.4%-23.9%2.2%-7.7%-20.6%
12M Excs Rtn-28.2%-38.7%-85.7%1.4%-43.8%13.1%-33.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-39.2%-65.4%-159.2%-59.9%-64.8%-7.2%-62.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
U.S. Consumer3,014    
Hawthorne295    
Other244    
Controls 363382402384
Growing environment 72144264154
Growing media 160216309240
Growing media and mulch 1,2241,1931,2871,164
Lawn care 9731,0661,1601,017
Lighting 166200452329
Nutrients 105148325233
Other, primarily gardening 221248303260
Other, primarily gardening and controls 72908761
Other, primarily hardware 56106190159
Roundup® Marketing Agreement 139132145133
Total3,5533,5513,9244,9254,132


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
U.S. Consumer498    
Other5    
Hawthorne-14    
Intangible asset amortization-16    
Corporate-118    
Impairment, restructuring and other-146    
Total209    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,130,626
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.5%
Average Daily Volume722,942
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.33
Basic Shares Quantity57,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20252.9%6.4%0.1%
7/30/2025-8.5%-9.6%-7.4%
4/28/20251.2%2.7%15.3%
1/29/2025-5.8%-8.0%-21.8%
11/6/2024-20.5%-21.3%-18.5%
7/31/202411.9%0.4%1.6%
5/1/2024-0.4%1.0%-1.4%
2/7/20243.7%2.0%22.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131611
# Negative11813
Median Positive5.8%6.2%15.3%
Median Negative-6.0%-11.3%-11.3%
Max Positive18.5%20.1%26.7%
Max Negative-20.5%-25.3%-22.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251125202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024205202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241126202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023207202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231122202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221128202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021209202210-Q 1/1/2022