Tearsheet

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.68 | Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $55.68
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 6.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 6.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 56%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 72x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Scotts Miracle-Gro reported a wider-than-expected adjusted loss for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025. The company posted an adjusted loss of $1.96 per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a $1.88 per share loss.

2. The company's net sales for Q4 fiscal 2025 missed analyst expectations. Net sales declined by 6.6% year-over-year to $387.4 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of approximately $396 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMG Return96%-18%-69%37%8%-12%-35%
Peers Return47%16%2%-5%2%6%80%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMG Win Rate58%33%25%42%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate58%57%50%47%55%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMG Max Drawdown-27%-32%-74%-7%-16%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-10%-16%-24%-11%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ECL, ROL, FMC, CTVA, NTR. See SMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven527.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven219 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven189.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven646 days1480 days

Compare to ECL, ROL, FMC, CTVA, NTR


In The Past

Scotts Miracle Gro's stock fell -84.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2021. A -84.1% loss requires a 527.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)

Better Bets than Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
SMG_12312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312021SMGScotts Miracle GroDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-49.6%-68.8%-74.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
SMG_12312021_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312021SMGScotts Miracle GroDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-49.6%-68.8%-74.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Scotts Miracle Gro

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMGECLROLFMCCTVANTRMedian
NameScotts M.Ecolab Rollins FMC Corteva Nutrien  
Mkt Price56.54264.3360.6213.6065.3060.0760.34
Mkt Cap3.374.929.41.744.329.229.3
Rev LTM3,44015,7243,6803,60817,46926,6249,702
Op Inc LTM3912,7187174332,7163,5781,716
FCF LTM2451,574675-4092,6692,1321,124
FCF 3Y Avg5671,658561-401,4212,449994
CFO LTM3162,625702-3183,2194,1531,663
CFO 3Y Avg6492,531591621,9904,7891,319

Growth & Margins

SMGECLROLFMCCTVANTRMedian
NameScotts M.Ecolab Rollins FMC Corteva Nutrien  
Rev Chg LTM-2.0%0.6%11.2%-13.4%5.0%0.3%0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.1%5.2%11.8%-13.6%0.8%-10.6%-2.7%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%1.0%12.0%-49.1%12.6%12.3%6.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%0.3%3.1%-12.7%1.7%2.5%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM11.4%17.3%19.5%12.0%15.5%13.4%14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%15.2%19.4%15.4%13.0%13.7%14.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.4%0.3%-4.8%0.9%2.0%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM9.2%16.7%19.1%-8.8%18.4%15.6%16.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.3%16.4%17.7%1.2%11.6%17.0%16.7%
FCF/Rev LTM7.1%10.0%18.3%-11.3%15.3%8.0%9.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.0%10.8%16.8%-1.2%8.3%8.7%9.7%

Valuation

SMGECLROLFMCCTVANTRMedian
NameScotts M.Ecolab Rollins FMC Corteva Nutrien  
Mkt Cap3.374.929.41.744.329.229.3
P/S1.14.97.71.22.61.11.9
P/EBIT16.225.839.71,913.818.48.822.1
P/E71.736.355.2-7.928.615.832.5
P/CFO12.129.640.6-13.314.36.913.2
Total Yield5.4%3.7%2.9%-9.2%3.7%10.1%3.7%
Dividend Yield4.0%0.9%1.1%3.5%0.3%3.7%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.5%2.5%2.4%-2.1%3.2%9.0%2.9%
D/E0.60.10.01.10.10.50.3
Net D/E0.60.10.01.00.00.50.3

Returns

SMGECLROLFMCCTVANTRMedian
NameScotts M.Ecolab Rollins FMC Corteva Nutrien  
1M Rtn6.0%2.7%3.9%-4.2%5.5%10.2%4.7%
3M Rtn-5.0%-3.0%8.0%-62.7%-9.6%6.8%-4.0%
6M Rtn-1.3%-0.5%5.1%-66.8%-8.0%1.5%-0.9%
12M Rtn-22.0%7.6%23.6%-75.8%6.4%28.4%7.0%
3Y Rtn15.2%80.5%55.8%-88.6%0.3%-14.3%7.8%
1M Excs Rtn6.1%2.7%4.0%-4.1%5.5%10.2%4.8%
3M Excs Rtn-14.0%-9.0%1.6%-68.2%-15.2%1.1%-11.5%
6M Excs Rtn-16.0%-15.3%-9.7%-81.5%-22.8%-13.2%-15.6%
12M Excs Rtn-36.8%-6.2%8.4%-89.2%-7.3%20.7%-6.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.7%15.0%-14.3%-160.8%-68.8%-88.0%-60.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,968,164
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.9%
Average Daily Volume985,011
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.01
Basic Shares Quantity57,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024205202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241126202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023207202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231122202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221128202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021209202210-Q 1/1/2022
93020211123202110-K 9/30/2021