Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.67 | Market Cap: $15.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.67Market Cap: $15.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AGI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Alamos Gold's stock movement during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Record Financial and Operational Performance in Q3 2025.
Alamos Gold reported record revenue, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow of $130 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company also achieved a 3% increase in gold production quarter-over-quarter, with costs decreasing by 9% in total cash costs and 7% in all-in sustaining costs from the previous quarter.
2. Favorable Gold Price Environment.
The company benefited from a record realized gold price of $3,359 per ounce in Q3 2025. The price of gold itself saw a significant rise, increasing by 5.79% in the month leading up to December 5, 2025, and a substantial 59.78% year-over-year compared to the same time in 2024, which generally boosts the valuation of gold mining equities.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGI Return | 47% | -11% | 33% | 34% | 38% | 96% | 532% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 126% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGI Max Drawdown | -35% | -21% | -15% | -3% | -15% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -7.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Alamos Gold's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is Alamos Gold Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| AU, IAG Beat Alamos Gold Stock on Price & Growth | Actionable | ||
| Which Stock Will Rally: Newmont or Alamos Gold? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| AGI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Alamos Gold (AGI) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alamos Gold Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 38.0% in 2024 and 35.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Should You Buy Alamos Gold Stock Despite Its High Valuation? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Alamos Gold (AGI) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alamos Gold (AGI) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alamos Gold (AGI) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Big Move for AGI, but Do AEM’s Margins and Growth Give It the Edge? | September 24th, 2025 | ||
| With AGI Up 29% in a Month, Is It Time to Compare It Against AEM? | September 13th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than Alamos Gold Stock: Pay Less To Get More From AU | September 5th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alamos Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| Rev LTM | 6,088 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 232 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 188 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 33.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 33.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 45.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 96.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 94.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 94.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10292021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |