Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $37.47 | Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $37.47Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% | Key risksAGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% |
| Key risksAGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AGI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Alamos Gold (AGI) stock demonstrated a significant upward movement, largely driven by several key operational and financial developments.
1. Strong Financial Performance in Q2 and Q3 2025: Alamos Gold reported record financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In Q2 2025, the company's revenue leapt 32% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 44%. This was primarily due to a 38% jump in the realized gold price and a 10% production rebound. Q3 2025 also saw record revenue and cash flow, with a 54% increase in free cash flow from Q2, reaching $130 million, and net earnings of $276 million. These robust financial outcomes significantly boosted investor confidence.
2. Strategic Asset Divestitures and Increased Liquidity: Alamos Gold executed the sale of its Turkish Development Projects for a total cash consideration of $470 million, an announcement made on September 14, 2025, and confirmed closed on October 27, 2025. The company also announced the closing of its Quartz Mountain Project sale on October 22, 2025. These strategic sales injected substantial cash into the company, increasing its cash balance to over $600 million and overall liquidity to more than $1.1 billion by Q3 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGI Return | 47% | -11% | 33% | 34% | 38% | 103% | 553% |
| Peers Return | 79% | 17% | -7% | 7% | 14% | 120% | 423% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 45% | 48% | 57% | 52% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGI Max Drawdown | -35% | -21% | -15% | -3% | -15% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -22% | -31% | -20% | -22% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEM, GOLD, NEM, KGC, BTG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 194.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 563 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -7.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Alamos Gold's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alamos Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8,506 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,798 |
| FCF LTM | 1,484 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,042 |
| CFO LTM | 2,042 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 31.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 42.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.9 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 102.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 192.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 36.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 89.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 122.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10292021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |