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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.8%, Dist 3Y High is -3.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Alamos Gold's stock movement during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. Record Financial and Operational Performance in Q3 2025.
Alamos Gold reported record revenue, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow of $130 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company also achieved a 3% increase in gold production quarter-over-quarter, with costs decreasing by 9% in total cash costs and 7% in all-in sustaining costs from the previous quarter.
2. Favorable Gold Price Environment.
The company benefited from a record realized gold price of $3,359 per ounce in Q3 2025. The price of gold itself saw a significant rise, increasing by 5.79% in the month leading up to December 5, 2025, and a substantial 59.78% year-over-year compared to the same time in 2024, which generally boosts the valuation of gold mining equities.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGI Return47%-11%33%34%38%96%532%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%126%176%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGI Win Rate58%58%58%58%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGI Max Drawdown-35%-21%-15%-3%-15%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven40 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-66.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven194.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven563 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-7.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven10 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Alamos Gold's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alamos Gold (AGI)

Better Bets than Alamos Gold (AGI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alamos Gold

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGIBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameAlamos G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price36.1040.87202.929.3390.81171.6465.84
Mkt Cap15.270.139.12.999.686.254.6
Rev LTM1,60913,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,088
Op Inc LTM7105,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM232--8562266,1223,645232
FCF 3Y Avg188--161242,6362,041188
CFO LTM737-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg594-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

AGIBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameAlamos G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM31.3%16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%33.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg26.7%5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%24.9%
Rev Chg Q28.1%16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%33.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.7%3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%6.1%
Op Mgn LTM44.1%38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%43.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg36.3%29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%32.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.5%3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.4%
CFO/Rev LTM45.8%-84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%45.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg46.4%-81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%45.6%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%--55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%16.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%-4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%13.8%

Valuation

AGIBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameAlamos G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap15.270.139.12.999.686.254.6
P/S9.12.627.82.04.38.06.2
P/EBIT18.16.336.75.98.916.212.5
P/E27.212.946.712.012.924.618.7
P/CFO19.9-32.86.110.014.514.5
Total Yield3.8%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.1%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

AGIBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameAlamos G.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn20.4%29.6%10.1%19.0%15.4%10.3%17.2%
3M Rtn14.6%50.7%7.2%22.4%21.6%15.9%18.8%
6M Rtn34.0%106.1%18.4%26.1%67.6%41.3%37.7%
12M Rtn85.4%140.3%67.8%88.9%123.0%103.3%96.1%
3Y Rtn276.4%164.9%46.7%152.2%109.9%265.2%158.5%
1M Excs Rtn19.1%28.3%8.8%17.7%14.2%9.1%16.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.5%38.7%-0.7%15.8%13.8%7.5%10.6%
6M Excs Rtn18.6%90.7%2.9%10.6%52.2%25.9%22.2%
12M Excs Rtn82.3%129.1%55.8%92.1%112.3%96.4%94.2%
3Y Excs Rtn215.2%102.6%-25.4%87.1%44.4%198.2%94.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Young-Davidson1,6931,6451,6841,6531,596
Island Gold1,4541,2221,094995921
Mulatos632606539421411
Corporate/other223201304568320
Kirazli    148
Total4,0013,6743,6223,6363,396


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,575,928
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.7%
Average Daily Volume2,976,258
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.23
Basic Shares Quantity420,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202573120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024331202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202442520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023326202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102620236-K 9/30/2023
630202372720236-K 6/30/2023
331202342820236-K 3/31/2023
12312022329202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102720226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021330202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021102920216-K 9/30/2021