Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2%
Key risks
AGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more.
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 42%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2%
6 Key risks
AGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Alamos Gold (AGI) stock demonstrated a significant upward movement, largely driven by several key operational and financial developments.

1. Strong Financial Performance in Q2 and Q3 2025: Alamos Gold reported record financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In Q2 2025, the company's revenue leapt 32% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA growing by 44%. This was primarily due to a 38% jump in the realized gold price and a 10% production rebound. Q3 2025 also saw record revenue and cash flow, with a 54% increase in free cash flow from Q2, reaching $130 million, and net earnings of $276 million. These robust financial outcomes significantly boosted investor confidence.

2. Strategic Asset Divestitures and Increased Liquidity: Alamos Gold executed the sale of its Turkish Development Projects for a total cash consideration of $470 million, an announcement made on September 14, 2025, and confirmed closed on October 27, 2025. The company also announced the closing of its Quartz Mountain Project sale on October 22, 2025. These strategic sales injected substantial cash into the company, increasing its cash balance to over $600 million and overall liquidity to more than $1.1 billion by Q3 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGI Return47%-11%33%34%38%103%553%
Peers Return79%17%-7%7%14%120%423%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGI Win Rate58%58%58%58%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%45%48%57%52%75% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGI Max Drawdown-35%-21%-15%-3%-15%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-22%-31%-20%-22%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEM, GOLD, NEM, KGC, BTG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven40 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-66.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven194.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven563 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-7.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven10 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Alamos Gold's stock fell -32.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -32.8% loss requires a 48.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alamos Gold (AGI)

Better Bets than Alamos Gold (AGI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alamos Gold

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGIAEMGOLDNEMKGCBTGMedian
NameAlamos G.Agnico E.Gold.com Newmont Kinross .B2Gold  
Mkt Price37.67167.5432.6699.3327.964.5835.16
Mkt Cap15.884.10.6109.034.06.124.9
Rev LTM1,60910,56811,94421,5036,4442,5078,506
Op Inc LTM7105,223429,3592,6089881,798
FCF LTM2323,6454636,1222,2417261,484
FCF 3Y Avg1882,041202,6361,2748091,042
CFO LTM7375,8374759,2243,3487262,042
CFO 3Y Avg5943,883335,6162,3808231,601

Growth & Margins

AGIAEMGOLDNEMKGCBTGMedian
NameAlamos G.Agnico E.Gold.com Newmont Kinross .B2Gold  
Rev Chg LTM31.3%35.2%20.3%26.6%32.9%31.0%31.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg26.7%26.0%14.5%23.9%29.5%15.6%24.9%
Rev Chg Q28.1%41.9%35.6%20.0%25.8%74.7%31.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.7%9.4%8.8%4.5%6.1%15.4%7.8%
Op Mgn LTM44.1%49.4%0.4%43.5%40.5%39.4%42.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg36.3%36.0%0.9%23.9%25.0%36.2%30.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.5%3.6%-0.1%4.5%1.8%5.2%4.0%
CFO/Rev LTM45.8%55.2%4.0%42.9%52.0%29.0%44.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg46.4%45.6%0.1%32.6%45.2%39.3%42.2%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%34.5%3.9%28.5%34.8%29.0%28.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%22.7%-0.1%13.8%23.1%38.6%18.7%

Valuation

AGIAEMGOLDNEMKGCBTGMedian
NameAlamos G.Agnico E.Gold.com Newmont Kinross .B2Gold  
Mkt Cap15.884.10.6109.034.06.124.9
P/S9.18.00.14.34.72.64.5
P/EBIT18.116.2-8.811.38.711.3
P/E27.224.686.312.917.229.925.9
P/CFO19.914.51.310.09.09.09.5
Total Yield3.8%4.9%2.7%9.0%6.3%5.2%5.1%
Dividend Yield0.1%0.8%1.5%1.2%0.5%1.9%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%3.9%-3.6%8.8%18.2%3.9%
D/E0.00.0-0.10.00.10.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.0--0.0-0.00.0-0.0

Returns

AGIAEMGOLDNEMKGCBTGMedian
NameAlamos G.Agnico E.Gold.com Newmont Kinross .B2Gold  
1M Rtn14.0%1.8%29.7%14.4%12.3%15.2%14.2%
3M Rtn20.2%9.6%24.0%26.6%24.7%6.1%22.1%
6M Rtn41.3%37.3%55.9%71.6%80.7%24.8%48.6%
12M Rtn98.2%107.6%23.8%153.8%194.5%82.0%102.9%
3Y Rtn297.7%251.6%8.4%133.5%618.3%53.0%192.5%
1M Excs Rtn13.3%1.1%29.0%13.7%11.5%14.4%13.5%
3M Excs Rtn19.7%7.4%19.9%25.8%24.4%5.0%19.8%
6M Excs Rtn28.9%24.9%43.5%59.2%68.3%12.4%36.2%
12M Excs Rtn86.7%91.6%7.7%140.1%177.3%67.4%89.1%
3Y Excs Rtn219.2%181.5%-67.0%63.8%522.8%-13.2%122.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Young-Davidson1,6931,6451,6841,6531,596
Island Gold1,4541,2221,094995921
Mulatos632606539421411
Corporate/other223201304568320
Kirazli    148
Total4,0013,6743,6223,6363,396


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,857,257
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-16.7%
Average Daily Volume2,658,686
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.71
Basic Shares Quantity420,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202573120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024331202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110720246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202442520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023326202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102620236-K 9/30/2023
630202372720236-K 6/30/2023
331202342820236-K 3/31/2023
12312022329202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102720226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021330202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021102920216-K 9/30/2021