Methanex (MEOH)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $71.24 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals
Methanex (MEOH)
Market Price (11/4/2026): $71.24Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Commodity Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% | Key risksMEOH key risks include [1] operational disruptions at its production facilities, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, FCF Yield is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.3%, Dist 3Y High is -2.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% |
| Key risksMEOH key risks include [1] operational disruptions at its production facilities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Methanex (MEOH) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance.
Methanex reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q3 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.69, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.84 by $0.85. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $1.39 billion against a forecast of $1.29 billion, representing a 49.7% increase year-over-year. The company further bolstered investor confidence by projecting a higher Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal Q4 2026, anticipating average realized methanol prices of approximately $525 to $550 per tonne for October and November.
2. Elevated Methanol Prices Driven by Middle East Supply Disruptions.
A primary catalyst for the stock's appreciation was the sustained increase in global methanol prices, largely due to significant supply disruptions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region led to the disruption of an estimated 30% to 35% of global methanol trade and approximately 62% of Middle East methanol capacity being idled. Methanex's average realized methanol price in fiscal Q3 2026 was $510 per tonne, which was a key factor in the company's strong revenue growth.
Show more
Methanex (MEOH) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance.
Methanex reported robust financial results for its fiscal Q3 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.69, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.84 by $0.85. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $1.39 billion against a forecast of $1.29 billion, representing a 49.7% increase year-over-year. The company further bolstered investor confidence by projecting a higher Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal Q4 2026, anticipating average realized methanol prices of approximately $525 to $550 per tonne for October and November.
2. Elevated Methanol Prices Driven by Middle East Supply Disruptions.
A primary catalyst for the stock's appreciation was the sustained increase in global methanol prices, largely due to significant supply disruptions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region led to the disruption of an estimated 30% to 35% of global methanol trade and approximately 62% of Middle East methanol capacity being idled. Methanex's average realized methanol price in fiscal Q3 2026 was $510 per tonne, which was a key factor in the company's strong revenue growth.
3. Shareholder Return Initiatives and Accelerated Deleveraging.
Methanex demonstrated a commitment to returning value to shareholders and strengthening its balance sheet. The company announced a new 5% normal course issuer bid, authorizing the repurchase of up to 3,868,213 common shares through November 3, 2027. Additionally, Methanex continued its deleveraging efforts by providing notice to redeem $300 million of bonds due in October 2027, with plans to redeem the remaining $400 million during fiscal Q4 2026. These actions were noted by S&P Global Ratings in July 2026, which revised Methanex's outlook to positive due to improved operating performance, strong liquidity, and a prudent financial policy.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Analyst ratings and price targets showed a significant positive trend during the period. The consensus analyst rating was strongly bullish, with an average price target of $73.17 as of late October 2026. Multiple investment firms increased their price objectives for Methanex, reflecting growing confidence in the company's prospects. For instance, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce raised its target from $77.00 to $83.00, and Raymond James increased its target from $65.00 to $72.00, citing better-than-expected realized pricing. Zacks Research also upgraded Methanex from a "hold" to a "strong-buy" rating in October 2026, driven by an upward revision in earnings estimates.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.2% change in MEOH stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 268.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.39 | 69.89 | 26.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,265 | 4,725 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.1% | 7.6% | 268.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.5 | 15.0 | -69.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 77 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | -38.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 4.3% | -15.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.3% change in MEOH stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.14 | 69.89 | 7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,666 | 4,725 | 28.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.1 | -16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 77 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | -26.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.6% | -15.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.4% change in MEOH stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.75 | 69.89 | 80.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,569 | 4,725 | 32.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 7.6% | 27.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.0 | 15.0 | 7.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 77 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 80.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | -12.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 24.4% | 6.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.2% change in MEOH stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 59.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.22 | 69.89 | 78.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,787 | 4,725 | 24.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 7.6% | 59.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 15.0 | 3.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 77 | -12.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 78.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.6% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 45.8% | 36.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MEOH Return | -13% | -3% | 27% | 7% | -19% | 78% | 66% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -19% | 20% | -23% | -36% | 26% | -26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MEOH Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 45% | 38% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MEOH Max Drawdown | -37% | -48% | -28% | -33% | -52% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -41% | -21% | -34% | -49% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CE, LYB, DOW, EMN, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MEOH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 245.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Methanex's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MEOH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 245.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 302 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -63.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 175.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Methanex's stock fell -43.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 75.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Methanex (MEOH)
Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is a leading global producer and supplier of methanol, a vital chemical feedstock primarily used by the chemical and petrochemical industries. The company manufactures methanol in various regions and also augments its supply by purchasing methanol from other producers through offtake agreements and on the spot market, serving a broad customer base across North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and South America.
To support its global operations, Methanex manages a robust and integrated supply chain. This includes owning and leasing crucial storage and terminal facilities, alongside operating a substantial fleet of approximately 30 ocean-going vessels. These logistical assets enable Methanex to efficiently transport and deliver methanol from its production and sourcing points to its industrial customers worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Methanex (MEOH):
The ExxonMobil or Shell of methanol.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for methanol.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Methanol: A chemical compound produced and supplied by the company, serving as a raw material for various chemical and petrochemical products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Methanex (MEOH) primarily sells its methanol to other companies, specifically chemical and petrochemical producers.
Due to the nature of methanol as a commodity chemical and Methanex's global operations, the company serves a diverse range of industrial customers worldwide. Its customers are large chemical and petrochemical companies that use methanol as a key feedstock for producing various products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, DME, and other derivatives.
The specific names of Methanex's individual major customer companies are not publicly disclosed by the company in its financial filings or investor communications. This is common for producers of commodity chemicals, as they typically sell to a broad base of industrial users rather than having a few named dominant customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rich Sumner President and Chief Executive Officer
Rich Sumner is Methanex's President and CEO, a role he assumed on January 1, 2023. He joined Methanex in 2004 and has held various progressively senior positions across Finance, Supply Chain, and Marketing and Logistics in both North America and Asia. Prior to his appointment as CEO, Mr. Sumner served as Senior Vice President, Global Marketing & Logistics, where his responsibilities included overseeing Methanex's Marketing & Logistics functions, including its jointly owned shipping subsidiary, Waterfront Shipping, and providing executive oversight for the company's North American manufacturing operations. Mr. Sumner holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from Simon Fraser University and is a Chartered Professional Accountant.
Dean Richardson Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Dean Richardson was appointed Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 1, 2023. He joined Methanex in 2003 and has accumulated extensive experience across various global locations, holding progressively senior and strategic roles within Corporate Finance and Manufacturing. Before becoming CFO, Mr. Richardson served as Vice President, Corporate Finance, where he was responsible for strategic finance initiatives. He holds a Bachelor of Science from Simon Fraser University, is a CPA, CA from the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia, and has completed the Harvard Advanced Management Program.
Karine Delbarre Senior Vice President, Global Marketing & Logistics
Karine Delbarre assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Global Marketing & Logistics on January 1, 2023. Prior to this appointment, she served as Vice President, North America Marketing & Logistics.
Brad Boyd Senior Vice President, Corporate Resources
Brad Boyd has been the Senior Vice President, Corporate Resources at Methanex Corporation since January 2018. In this capacity, he is responsible for the Human Resources, Information Technology, and Legal functions, and also provides executive oversight for Methanex's operations in Egypt. Mr. Boyd joined the company in 1996 and has held multiple roles in finance, within the Egypt operation, and most recently as Vice President, Human Resources. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of British Columbia and is a member of the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia.
Kevin Price Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Kevin Price was appointed Senior Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary, effective January 1, 2023. He leads the company's Legal team, ensuring adherence to legal requirements and strong governance practices. Since joining Methanex in 2005, Mr. Price has held progressively senior roles within the Legal team in both Vancouver and Chile. He holds a Bachelor of Arts from Carleton University, a Master of Arts in Economics from the University of Toronto, and a Bachelor of Law from the University of British Columbia.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Methanex's business operations primarily revolve around market dynamics, operational efficiency, and raw material availability.
- Methanol Price Volatility and Market Conditions: Methanex's financial performance is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global methanol prices. These prices are influenced by worldwide economic activity, energy costs, and the balance between methanol supply and demand. Periods of ample supply coupled with weakening demand can exert downward pressure on prices, directly impacting the company's revenue and profitability.
- Operational Challenges and Plant Reliability: The company has experienced persistent operational issues, particularly at key facilities such as its G3 plant, including temporary shutdowns and technical malfunctions. Such challenges can significantly reduce Methanex's production capacity and overall efficiency, leading to increased maintenance expenditures and a potential loss of market share to competitors.
- Natural Gas Supply and Cost: Methanol production relies heavily on natural gas as a primary feedstock. Securing a stable and cost-effective supply of natural gas, especially in certain operating regions, is crucial for Methanex's production economics. Challenges in gas availability or rising gas prices can directly impact production volumes and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The most significant clear emerging threat for Methanex (MEOH) stems from the global push towards decarbonization and sustainable chemical production:
- Shift towards Green and Bio-Methanol: There is a growing global trend among chemical and petrochemical producers, as well as the shipping industry (e.g., for maritime fuel), to source lower-carbon intensity feedstocks and fuels. This is driving increased investment and demand for "green methanol" (produced from renewable hydrogen and captured CO2) and "bio-methanol" (produced from biomass). If Methanex, a major producer of conventional (natural gas-based) methanol, does not adequately transition or invest in these sustainable production methods, it risks facing eroding market share, competitive disadvantage, and pricing pressure from producers and new entrants focused on low-carbon methanol.
- Increasing Carbon Pricing and Emissions Regulations: Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are implementing and strengthening carbon pricing mechanisms (e.g., carbon taxes, emissions trading schemes) and stricter emissions standards. Methanol production from natural gas, Methanex's primary feedstock, is an energy-intensive process with associated CO2 emissions. These evolving regulations could significantly increase operating costs for Methanex's conventional production facilities, making its products less competitive or accelerating the demand shift towards lower-carbon methanol alternatives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Methanex Corporation's primary product is methanol. The addressable markets for methanol are substantial globally and across the regions where Methanex operates.
Global Methanol Market
The global methanol market was valued at approximately USD 38.50 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 64.14 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate places the global market at USD 45.51 billion in 2025, with an expectation to reach USD 67.48 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.57%. In terms of volume, the global methanol market reached approximately 90 million tonnes in 2022 and is expected to grow to about 136 million tonnes by 2032.
Regional Methanol Markets
- Asia Pacific: This region held the largest share of the global methanol market, accounting for 51.2% of the revenue in 2024. The Asia Pacific methanol market was estimated at USD 7.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 7.86 billion in 2025 to USD 12.5 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 4.7%. Another report indicates a market size of USD 21.41 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 31.53 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific led the methanol market with a dominant 67.98% share in 2025.
- North America: The North America methanol market size was valued at 10.89 million tonnes in 2024 and is estimated to reach 19.42 million tonnes by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.37% from 2025 to 2033. In 2025, North America accounted for 9.96% of the global methanol market. The market demand was nearly 13.8 million tonnes in 2023 and is expected to reach roughly 20.8 million tonnes in 2034.
- Europe: The Europe methanol market size was estimated at USD 9.58 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 14.64 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 4.83% from 2026 to 2034. Another source valued the market at USD 9.72 billion in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 18.4 billion by 2035. The European methanol market demand stood at nearly 11.3 million tonnes in 2023 and is expected to reach approximately 17.6 million tonnes in 2034. In 2025, Europe held a 9.02% share of the methanol market.
- South America: The South America methanol market was recorded at 7.43 million metric tonnes (MMT) in 2025 and is projected to reach 8.64 MMT by 2032. The Latin America methanol market was valued at USD 859.95 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1014.97 million by 2028, expanding at a CAGR of 4.2%. In 2024, Latin America accounted for approximately 5% of the global methanol market revenue, with a market size of USD 1577.11 million. South America methanol demand stood at 4.32 million tonnes in 2020 and is forecast to reach 7.15 million tonnes by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Methanex (MEOH)
Methanex Corporation (MEOH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Increased Production Volume: Methanex has provided guidance for a significant increase in its expected equity production, aiming for approximately 9 million tons of methanol in 2026. This growth is anticipated to be substantially supported by contributions from its North American and Latin American operations.
- Growing Demand for Methanol as a Marine Fuel and Low-Carbon Solutions: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the rising adoption of methanol as a marine fuel, with a considerable number of methanol-fueled vessels already operating or on order. Furthermore, Methanex is actively developing and investing in low-carbon methanol production pathways, including carbon capture, biomethanol, and e-methanol, in response to evolving regulatory landscapes and increasing customer demand for sustainable chemical solutions.
- Overall Favorable Global Methanol Demand and Market Dynamics: Methanol continues to be an essential chemical building block for a diverse range of products, and the industry is projected to experience overall demand growth, partly due to limited new supply additions in the market. Favorable pricing dynamics, bolstered by Methanex's effective contracting strategies, are also expected to contribute to revenue stability and growth.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Reliability: Ongoing investments in improving operational efficiency and plant reliability are critical for maximizing output from existing and recently integrated assets. Initiatives such as the full production from the G3 plant, known for its low emissions intensity, and the strategic acquisition of OCI Global's methanol business, are expected to ensure a secure supply to customers and enhance overall profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On April 27, 2022, Methanex's Board of Directors increased the number of common shares authorized for repurchase under its Normal Course Issuer Bid from 3,810,464 to 6,094,171, representing 10% of the public float at that time.
- Management has significantly reduced the total number of shares, which has been beneficial for shareholders.
- Share buybacks are executed opportunistically when the share price reflects a superior long-term return, particularly once the company is within its target leverage range.
Share Issuance
- Methanex issued approximately 9.9 million common shares as part of the consideration for the acquisition of OCI Global's international methanol business, which closed in June 2025.
Inbound Investments
- An activist investor acquired a large position in Methanex in 2025 at approximately $28 per share, with the intention of engaging in discussions regarding operational changes and investment opportunities.
Outbound Investments
- Methanex completed the acquisition of OCI Global's international methanol business for approximately $2.05 billion on June 27, 2025.
- This acquisition included two world-scale methanol facilities in Beaumont, Texas (one also producing ammonia), a 50% interest in the Natgasoline LLC methanol facility in Beaumont, a low-carbon methanol production and marketing business, and an idled methanol facility in the Netherlands.
- The transaction consideration involved approximately $1.2 billion in cash, the issuance of around 9.9 million common shares, and the assumption of approximately $450 million in debt and leases.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were expected to be approximately $120 million, with a projected run-rate sustaining capital of $130-$150 million for 2026 and beyond.
- Sustaining capital is anticipated to increase by $40 million following the closing of the OCI Global's methanol business acquisition in the second quarter of 2025.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes maintaining the business through sustaining investments, pursuing profitable growth, and investing resources to evaluate technologies for low and zero-carbon methanol solutions. The Geismar 3 (G3) plant, commissioned in July 2024, is highlighted as a significant growth project.
Peer Outperformance in Commodity Chemicals
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEOH | Methanex | 8.9% | 15.0x | 90.6% | 69.2% | 62.9% | — |
| HWKN | Hawkins | 6.9% | 36.9x | 17.9% | 157.3% | 327.5% | +265pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 40.7% | 103.7% | 140.9% | SCCO 264% · TGB 231% · HBM 226% |
| Steel | 14 | 22.7% | 44.2% | 138.5% | STLD 319% · HCC 276% · RS 209% |
| Gold | 37 | 0.8% | 158.0% | 78.9% | IAG 462% · OGC 330% · AGI 267% |
| Silver | 6 | 18.0% | 209.5% | 67.2% | AYA 244% · HL 129% · EXK 40% |
| Construction Materials | 6 | -5.9% | 24.9% | 44.6% | USLM 376% · CRH 101% · VMC 52% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 8.5% | 122.1% | 39.7% | CENX 146% · AA -12% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | 9.0% | 17.6% | 6.5% | GEF 44% · ATR 18% · SLGN 6% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 24.7% | 15.9% | -2.0% | PKG 118% · CCK 19% · SON 0% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 24 | -54.4% | -11.9% | -11.3% | USAR 29128% · MTRN 155% · SKE 151% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 14.1% | -1.0% | -17.2% | NEU 145% · ESI 48% · ECL 41% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 11.9% | 1.2% | -17.5% | CBT 41% · ASH -17% |
| Commodity Chemicals ← | 13 | 17.9% | -19.2% | -31.3% | HWKN 328% · MEOH 63% · DOW -25% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 7 | -17.0% | 105.4% | -36.8% | PPTA 248% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -6.5% | -5.0% | -50.5% | CF 123% · CTVA 87% · NTR 20% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -37.8% | -61.9% | -82.4% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 57.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.5 |
| Rev LTM | 9,380 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,022 |
| FCF LTM | 1,044 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 701 |
| CFO LTM | 1,220 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,134 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 48.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $69.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/19/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $61.50 | $56.43 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.6% | 23.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.8% | 50.1% |
| Downside Capture | -209.93 | -75.93 |
| Upside Capture | -53.13 | 2.04 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -38.5% | -12.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.08 | -1.88 | -1.71 | -0.99 | -0.48 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | 4.00 | -1.75 | -1.05 | -1.30 | -1.66 | 0.98 |
| Down Beta | -4.27 | -4.34 | -3.70 | -0.83 | 0.25 | 1.44 |
| Up Capture | 31% | -42% | -57% | -52% | 12% | 32% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 31 | 62 | 134 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -299% | -234% | -295% | -173% | -165% | 77% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 33 | 64 | 117 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEOH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 80.8% | 50.1% | 1.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 24.5% | 17.8% | 1.07 | 6.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 12.8% | 0.57 | -12.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.4% | 28.6% | -0.10 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.0% | 20.9% | 1.56 | 43.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.7% | 0.48 | -14.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.9% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEOH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 10.7% | 44.2% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.1% | 19.1% | 0.20 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.0% | 17.1% | 0.52 | 37.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.5% | 19.0% | 0.69 | 10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 45.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 27.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 51.5% | 0.28 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEOH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEOH | 8.6% | 47.6% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.5% | 20.7% | 0.44 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 46.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.34 | 48.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 37.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.1% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 14.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 40-F |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/05/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/05/2021 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/25/2020 | 40-F |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Commodity Chemicals Resources |
| ChemAnalyst |
| S&P Global Commodity Insights - Chemicals |
| Reuters Events: Downstream |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.