Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 30%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MEOH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that likely influenced Methanex (MEOH) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Positive Outlook for Q4 2025: Methanex anticipated "meaningfully higher adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025" due to increased production and sales from recently acquired assets. This forward-looking positive guidance likely provided upward momentum for the stock.

2. Focus on Debt Reduction: The company's commitment to deleveraging, evidenced by the repayment of $125 million of its Term Loan A facility in Q3 2025 and plans to direct all free cash flow to further debt reduction, was viewed favorably by investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MEOH Return23%-13%-3%27%7%-24%7%
Peers Return14%22%-7%30%9%-22%42%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MEOH Win Rate75%33%42%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate65%50%50%52%50%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MEOH Max Drawdown-75%-35%-26%-2%-22%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-12%-23%-6%-22%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NOVS, DOW, MEOH, HWKN, HUN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMEOHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-76.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven322.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-63.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven171.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-81.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven437.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven759 days1480 days

Compare to NOVS, DOW, MEOH, HWKN, HUN


In The Past

Methanex's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/25/2022. A -48.7% loss requires a 95.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Methanex (MEOH)

Better Bets than Methanex (MEOH)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MEOH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Methanex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MEOHNOVSDOWHWKNHUNMedian
NameMethanex Novuster.Dow Hawkins Huntsman  
Mkt Price37.35-23.76137.0710.6130.55
Mkt Cap2.9-16.92.81.82.9
Rev LTM3,569040,9131,0455,7803,569
Op Inc LTM516-1472121-24121
FCF LTM9280-1,1207919979
FCF 3Y Avg515-90389126321
CFO LTM1,05701,562123366366
CFO 3Y Avg803-3,645133332567

Growth & Margins

MEOHNOVSDOWHWKNHUNMedian
NameMethanex Novuster.Dow Hawkins Huntsman  
Rev Chg LTM-3.4%2,000.0%-5.3%11.9%-3.5%-3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.7%--11.3%5.3%-11.5%-9.5%
Rev Chg Q-0.8%653.9%-8.3%13.5%-5.2%-0.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%45.2%-2.2%3.3%-1.4%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM14.4%-392.0%1.2%11.6%-0.4%1.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.5%-3.5%11.4%1.2%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%-54.6%-0.5%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM29.6%15.6%3.8%11.8%6.3%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.9%-8.3%13.8%5.5%11.0%
FCF/Rev LTM26.0%15.6%-2.7%7.5%3.4%7.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.2%-1.9%9.2%2.1%5.7%

Valuation

MEOHNOVSDOWHWKNHUNMedian
NameMethanex Novuster.Dow Hawkins Huntsman  
Mkt Cap2.9-16.92.81.82.9
P/S0.9-0.43.60.30.6
P/EBIT5.7-138.331.0-12.818.3
P/E14.4--14.445.6-4.74.8
P/CFO2.9-10.430.84.27.3
Total Yield8.6%-3.7%2.5%-9.9%3.1%
Dividend Yield1.7%-10.6%0.3%11.3%6.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg17.3%-1.2%4.6%5.7%5.2%
D/E1.2-1.20.11.51.2
Net D/E1.0-0.90.11.21.0

Returns

MEOHNOVSDOWHWKNHUNMedian
NameMethanex Novuster.Dow Hawkins Huntsman  
1M Rtn0.4%-3.8%5.3%32.5%4.5%
3M Rtn6.2%-0.8%-17.6%0.4%0.6%
6M Rtn13.6%--13.5%2.8%-3.4%-0.3%
12M Rtn-19.6%--41.8%0.4%-42.4%-30.7%
3Y Rtn2.8%--44.9%236.1%-56.6%-21.0%
1M Excs Rtn0.4%-3.8%5.3%32.5%4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-4.2%--4.5%-24.0%-6.9%-5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-1.1%--28.2%-11.9%-18.2%-15.0%
12M Excs Rtn-32.4%--55.8%-11.1%-55.3%-43.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-73.2%--115.4%163.6%-128.2%-94.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Production and sale of methanol3,7234,3114,4152,6503,284
Total3,7234,3114,4152,6503,284


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,311,578
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202515.7%
Average Daily Volume486,246
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.70
Basic Shares Quantity77,339,520
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103020256-K 9/30/2025
630202573020256-K 6/30/2025
331202543020256-K 3/31/2025
12312024307202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110620246-K 9/30/2024
630202473020246-K 6/30/2024
331202442420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023308202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102520236-K 9/30/2023
630202372620236-K 6/30/2023
331202342620236-K 3/31/2023
12312022310202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102620226-K 9/30/2022
630202272720226-K 6/30/2022
331202242720226-K 3/31/2022
12312021311202240-F 12/31/2021