Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DOW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Dow (symbol: DOW) experienced a notable decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and early December 2025. Several factors contributed to this movement, as highlighted by recent financial reports and analyst insights. Here are the key points for why Dow's stock moved by -2.1% during this approximate time period: **1. Dow's Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Expectations.** On August 18, 2025, Dow Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 earnings that missed analyst expectations, posting a larger-than-expected loss and a decline in revenue. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.42, significantly below the forecast of -$0.16. Revenue also fell short at $10.1 billion, compared to an anticipated $10.24 billion. This announcement led to a 16% drop in Dow's stock price in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns. **2. Decline in Net Sales and Volume.** In Q2 2025, Dow's net sales were $10.1 billion, a 7% decrease year-over-year, with declines across all operating segments. Sequentially, net sales were down 3%. Volume also decreased by 1% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. This was partly due to lower merchant ethylene sales following the startup of the company's Poly-7 polyethylene asset in the U.S. Gulf Coast. **3. Continued Margin Compression and Elevated Energy Costs.** Analyst ratings from December 2025 indicate ongoing margin compression in the polyethylene chain and elevated energy costs as contributing factors to a pessimistic forecast for Dow's profitability and overall financial health. **4. Weak Demand and Pricing Headwinds.** Weak demand due to soft global economic activities and pricing headwinds likely impacted Dow's performance. Lower consumer spending amid inflationary pressures in Europe and slower demand recovery in China, particularly in the sluggish property sector, affected volumes. Dow also observed softness in the automotive sector in Europe and China. **5. Analyst Downgrades and "Hold" Consensus.** Several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for Dow during this period. For example, Citigroup maintained a "Hold" rating with a price target adjusted from $25 to $23 on November 19, 2025. While some analysts see a potential upside, the overall consensus among 15 analysts as of December 1, 2025, remained "Hold," with a majority suggesting holding existing positions rather than buying more shares.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DOW Return8%7%-7%15%-23%-36%-39%
Peers Return16%25%-19%14%-13%-17%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DOW Win Rate67%42%58%42%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%45%43%47%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DOW Max Drawdown-59%-6%-21%-2%-25%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-5%-36%-10%-27%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN. See DOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDOWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven247 days148 days

Compare to APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN


In The Past

Dow's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dow (DOW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dow

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
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Growth & Margins

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
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Valuation

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
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P/EBIT-------
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P/CFO-------
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Returns

DOWAPDDDEMNCEHUNMedian
NameDow Air Prod.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Huntsman  
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics23,14929,26028,12818,30120,245
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure12,53816,60616,85112,02113,440
Performance Materials & Coatings8,49710,7649,6727,9518,923
Corporate438272317269343
Total44,62256,90254,96838,54242,951


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics28,69230,01730,55630,06929,522
Performance Materials & Coatings12,08013,02813,81013,91514,059
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure11,99312,88313,75012,22011,753
Corporate5,2024,6754,8745,2665,190
Total57,96760,60362,99061,47060,524


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,678,222
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.1%
Average Daily Volume13,087,503
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.42
Basic Shares Quantity711,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023131202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022722202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022422202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021