Dow (DOW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.75 | Market Cap: $16.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals
Dow (DOW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.75Market Cap: $16.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Commodity Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DOW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Dow (symbol: DOW) experienced a notable decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and early December 2025. Several factors contributed to this movement, as highlighted by recent financial reports and analyst insights. Here are the key points for why Dow's stock moved by -2.1% during this approximate time period: **1. Dow's Q2 2025 Earnings Miss Expectations.** On August 18, 2025, Dow Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 earnings that missed analyst expectations, posting a larger-than-expected loss and a decline in revenue. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.42, significantly below the forecast of -$0.16. Revenue also fell short at $10.1 billion, compared to an anticipated $10.24 billion. This announcement led to a 16% drop in Dow's stock price in pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns. **2. Decline in Net Sales and Volume.** In Q2 2025, Dow's net sales were $10.1 billion, a 7% decrease year-over-year, with declines across all operating segments. Sequentially, net sales were down 3%. Volume also decreased by 1% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. This was partly due to lower merchant ethylene sales following the startup of the company's Poly-7 polyethylene asset in the U.S. Gulf Coast. **3. Continued Margin Compression and Elevated Energy Costs.** Analyst ratings from December 2025 indicate ongoing margin compression in the polyethylene chain and elevated energy costs as contributing factors to a pessimistic forecast for Dow's profitability and overall financial health. **4. Weak Demand and Pricing Headwinds.** Weak demand due to soft global economic activities and pricing headwinds likely impacted Dow's performance. Lower consumer spending amid inflationary pressures in Europe and slower demand recovery in China, particularly in the sluggish property sector, affected volumes. Dow also observed softness in the automotive sector in Europe and China. **5. Analyst Downgrades and "Hold" Consensus.** Several analyst firms adjusted their ratings and price targets for Dow during this period. For example, Citigroup maintained a "Hold" rating with a price target adjusted from $25 to $23 on November 19, 2025. While some analysts see a potential upside, the overall consensus among 15 analysts as of December 1, 2025, remained "Hold," with a majority suggesting holding existing positions rather than buying more shares.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DOW Return | 8% | 7% | -7% | 15% | -23% | -36% | -39% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 25% | -19% | 14% | -13% | -17% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DOW Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 45% | 43% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DOW Max Drawdown | -59% | -6% | -21% | -2% | -25% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -5% | -36% | -10% | -27% | -42% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN. See DOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DOW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 247 days | 148 days |
Compare to APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN
In The Past
Dow's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | DOW | Dow | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.1% | 23.8% | -0.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | DOW | Dow | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 28.1% | 23.8% | -0.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaging & Specialty Plastics | 23,149 | 29,260 | 28,128 | 18,301 | 20,245 |
| Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure | 12,538 | 16,606 | 16,851 | 12,021 | 13,440 |
| Performance Materials & Coatings | 8,497 | 10,764 | 9,672 | 7,951 | 8,923 |
| Corporate | 438 | 272 | 317 | 269 | 343 |
| Total | 44,622 | 56,902 | 54,968 | 38,542 | 42,951 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaging & Specialty Plastics | 28,692 | 30,017 | 30,556 | 30,069 | 29,522 |
| Performance Materials & Coatings | 12,080 | 13,028 | 13,810 | 13,915 | 14,059 |
| Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure | 11,993 | 12,883 | 13,750 | 12,220 | 11,753 |
| Corporate | 5,202 | 4,675 | 4,874 | 5,266 | 5,190 |
| Total | 57,967 | 60,603 | 62,990 | 61,470 | 60,524 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10212022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7222022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4222022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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