Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.3 | Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.3Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 5.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AXTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) experienced a stock movement of -4% due to several key factors:
**1. RBC Capital Downgrade Following Merger Announcement**
RBC Capital downgraded Axalta Coating Systems from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform" on November 19, 2025, simultaneously lowering its price target from $35.00 to $30.00. This adjustment came after the announcement of a $25 billion merger with AKZO.
**2. Concerns Regarding Merger Premium and Timeline**
The RBC downgrade highlighted investor concerns about the proposed merger with AKZO, specifically noting a limited acquisition premium for Axalta at $30 and an extended five-year timeline anticipated to fully realize value and synergies from the deal.
**3. Muted Growth Across Coating Market Segments**
A contributing factor to RBC Capital's revised outlook and the stock's performance was the observation of currently muted growth across most segments of the coatings market.
**4. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss**
On October 28, 2025, Axalta reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, where net sales of approximately $1.3 billion fell short of analysts' expectations of $1.31 billion. This represented a 2% decrease year-over-year, primarily driven by declines in the Performance Coatings segment in North America, despite strong adjusted earnings per share.
**5. Other Analyst Price Target Reductions**
During this period, other analyst firms also adjusted their price targets downwards. UBS Group reduced its price target from $40.00 to $39.00 on October 29, 2025, and JP Morgan lowered its price target from $30 to $29 on October 30, 2025, reflecting a less optimistic outlook and potentially contributing to downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXTA Return | -6% | 16% | -23% | 33% | 1% | -12% | -1% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 20% | -6% | -4% | -22% | -27% | -26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXTA Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 47% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXTA Max Drawdown | -55% | -6% | -36% | -1% | -10% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -8% | -25% | -21% | -28% | -55% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DD, DOW, CC, FMC, HUN. See AXTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 441 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2144 days | 120 days |
Compare to DD, DOW, CC, FMC, HUN
In The Past
Axalta Coating Systems's stock fell -37.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -37.5% loss requires a 60.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09262025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 09262025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.0% | 7.0% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Axalta Coating Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,808 |
| Op Inc LTM | 453 |
| FCF LTM | 94 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 270 |
| CFO LTM | 452 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 449 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 38.0 |
| P/E | -7.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | -4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -39.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -53.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -121.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tufano Amy | SVP & CHRO | 8212025 | Sell | 31.06 | 3,194 | 99,206 | 375,422 | Form |
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