Southern Copper (SCCO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $141.61 | Market Cap: $116.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Copper
Southern Copper (SCCO)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $141.61Market Cap: $116.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Copper
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% | Key risksSCCO key risks include [1] political and regulatory instability in Peru and Mexico, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 50% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electrification of Everything, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 50% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electrification of Everything, Battery Technology & Metals, and Sustainable Resource Management. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -5.0%, Dist 3Y High is -5.0% |
| Key risksSCCO key risks include [1] political and regulatory instability in Peru and Mexico, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SCCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Southern Copper (SCCO) experienced a significant stock movement of 46.9% due to several key factors in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025.
1. Strong Copper Price Rally and Optimistic Forecasts. The price of copper saw substantial increases, with Trading Economics reporting a 7.59% rise in the past month and a 32.28% increase year-over-year as of December 17, 2025, reaching $5.33 USD/Lbs. This surge was supported by widespread expectations from investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citi, forecasting copper prices to rise significantly, potentially over 75% to record highs by 2025, driven by supply disruptions and increased demand from the renewable energy sector and AI infrastructure.
2. Consistent Positive Earnings Performance and Analyst Optimism. Southern Copper demonstrated robust financial performance, consistently beating analyst earnings estimates in quarters leading up to and within the specified period. For example, the company reported a 10% EPS beat for Q3 2025, with revenues exceeding expectations by 5.2%. Additionally, Q1 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19 also surpassed the forecasted $1.10, with revenues reaching $3.12 billion, above the projected $2.94 billion. Analysts have become more bullish on the company's outlook, evidenced by numerous upward revisions to earnings per share estimates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SCCO Return | 59% | -1% | 4% | 50% | 9% | 63% | 339% |
| Peers Return | 97% | 69% | 6% | 3% | -7% | 57% | 426% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SCCO Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 54% | 56% | 54% | 46% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SCCO Max Drawdown | -44% | -11% | -27% | 0% | -9% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -3% | -26% | -19% | -18% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FCX, TECK, NEM, GOLD. See SCCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SCCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 690 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 412.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 753 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEM, HBM, TGB, SCCO, FCX
In The Past
Southern Copper's stock fell -45.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/1/2022. A -45.2% loss requires a 82.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Southern Copper Earnings Notes | |||
| What Is Happening With Southern Copper Stock? | |||
| With Southern Copper Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| Should You Buy Southern Copper Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Southern Copper vs Diamondback Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than SCCO Stock: Pay Less Than Southern Copper To Get More From CALM, HHH | |||
| SCCO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Southern Copper Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 10.9% in 2024 and 23.2% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Southern Copper (SCCO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Southern Copper (SCCO) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 10th, 2025 | ||
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | December 8th, 2025 | ||
| How Southern Copper Stock Gained 60% | December 4th, 2025 | ||
| How Southern Copper Stock Gained 60% | October 31st, 2025 | ||
| Southern Copper Stock Surged 60%, Here’s Why | October 31st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SCCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 03312025 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.7% | 53.5% | -19.1% |
| 06302022 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.2% | 51.7% | -12.7% |
| 09302021 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 39.5% | -14.3% | -18.2% |
| 02292020 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 47.1% | 121.4% | -29.3% |
| 11302018 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 20.6% | -12.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 03312025 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.7% | 53.5% | -19.1% |
| 06302022 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.2% | 51.7% | -12.7% |
| 09302021 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 39.5% | -14.3% | -18.2% |
| 02292020 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 47.1% | 121.4% | -29.3% |
| 11302018 | SCCO | Southern Copper | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.5% | 20.6% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Southern Copper
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 68.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,335 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,199 |
| FCF LTM | 1,625 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,419 |
| CFO LTM | 4,618 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,112 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 68.3 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 26.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 29.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican Open-pit | 5,562 | 5,773 | 6,109 | 4,412 | 3,964 |
| Peruvian Operations | 3,854 | 3,908 | 4,371 | 3,154 | 2,940 |
| Mexican Industrial Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V. and subsidiaries (IMMSA) Unit | 631 | 666 | 454 | 419 | 382 |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | -152 | -300 | |||
| Total | 9,896 | 10,048 | 10,934 | 7,985 | 7,286 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican Open-pit | 2,775 | 2,955 | 3,698 | 1,981 | 1,918 |
| Peruvian Operations | 1,473 | 1,468 | 2,333 | 1,098 | 855 |
| Mexican Industrial Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V. and subsidiaries (IMMSA) Unit | -4 | 61 | 89 | 86 | 15 |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | -52 | -47 | -55 | -45 | -36 |
| Total | 4,192 | 4,436 | 6,065 | 3,121 | 2,753 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexican Open-pit | 8,696 | 8,836 | 8,560 | 7,236 | 8,082 |
| Peruvian Operations | 4,636 | 4,871 | 4,933 | 5,170 | 5,018 |
| Corporate, other and eliminations | 2,228 | 2,470 | 3,807 | 3,573 | 2,470 |
| Mexican Industrial Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V. and subsidiaries (IMMSA) Unit | 1,166 | 1,101 | 998 | 967 | 838 |
| Total | 16,725 | 17,277 | 18,298 | 16,946 | 16,407 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.1% | -4.1% | -4.3% |
| 7/29/2025 | -6.3% | -2.2% | 0.4% |
| 4/25/2025 | -1.6% | -6.3% | -2.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | 2.4% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | 1.9% | 2.2% | -7.1% |
| 7/19/2024 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 4/26/2024 | 4.6% | 1.1% | 6.2% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.5% | -1.9% | -1.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.8% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.7% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.6% | 14.0% | 27.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.3% | -8.0% | -20.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3072022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |