Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $638.0 | Market Cap: $555.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Mastercard (MA)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $638.0Market Cap: $555.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 36 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -17% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 36 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -17% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x |
| Key risksMA key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges targeting its core interchange fee model and [2] potential disintermediation by emerging payment technologies like digital wallets and real-time payment rails. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mastercard reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.31, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.17 by 3.3%. Net revenues for the quarter also advanced 14% year over year to $9.8 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $9.66 billion. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter Mastercard has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimates.
2. Strong performance in value-added services and cross-border volumes drove revenue growth. In fiscal Q3 2026, value-added services and solutions revenue increased by 19% year over year, outperforming the 11% increase in its core payment network revenue. These services include high-margin areas such as fraud prevention, data analytics, and marketing. Additionally, cross-border volume, a key indicator of international travel and spending, rose by 11% globally in local currency during the quarter. Gross dollar volume across the Mastercard network also grew 7% year-over-year to $3.0 trillion.
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Mastercard (MA) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mastercard reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 earnings, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.31, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.17 by 3.3%. Net revenues for the quarter also advanced 14% year over year to $9.8 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $9.66 billion. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter Mastercard has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimates.
2. Strong performance in value-added services and cross-border volumes drove revenue growth. In fiscal Q3 2026, value-added services and solutions revenue increased by 19% year over year, outperforming the 11% increase in its core payment network revenue. These services include high-margin areas such as fraud prevention, data analytics, and marketing. Additionally, cross-border volume, a key indicator of international travel and spending, rose by 11% globally in local currency during the quarter. Gross dollar volume across the Mastercard network also grew 7% year-over-year to $3.0 trillion.
3. Strategic advancements in digital assets and artificial intelligence (AI) enhanced future growth prospects. Mastercard completed the acquisition of BVNK Holdings Limited, a stablecoin infrastructure provider, on August 3, 2026, for $1.4 billion, with potential additional consideration. This acquisition is expected to expand Mastercard's capabilities in the digital assets ecosystem, enabling 24/7 stablecoin settlement. Furthermore, Mastercard is actively focusing on "agentic commerce" through new trust and intelligence services, including "Agent Pay," designed for AI agents to initiate purchases. The company also announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI in fiscal Q3 2026.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and increased price targets bolstered investor confidence. Following the strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report, numerous analysts raised their price targets for Mastercard. For example, TD Cowen increased its price target from $667 to $726, Barclays from $660 to $700, Royal Bank of Canada from $696 to $742, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods from $685 to $750. The stock maintains a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" or "Strong Buy" among analysts, with an average price target generally ranging between $690 and $700, indicating potential upside.
5. Resilient consumer spending contributed to overall economic growth, benefiting payment networks. Despite ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, consumer spending remained strong throughout fiscal Q3 2026. The U.S. economy's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in fiscal Q3 2026, accelerating from 2.2% in the prior quarter, largely driven by increases in consumer spending and investment. This robust consumer activity directly translated into higher transaction volumes for Mastercard, with U.S. credit volume growing 10% and international debit volume increasing 10% in the quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.5% change in MA stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 572.23 | 638.01 | 11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35,083 | 36,288 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 46.3% | 46.7% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.0 | 32.9 | 6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 882 | 875 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | -0.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.8% | 67.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.3% change in MA stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 501.32 | 638.01 | 27.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,939 | 36,288 | 6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.9% | 46.7% | 1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.7 | 32.9 | 14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 891 | 875 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 27.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | -6.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.8% | 59.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.3% change in MA stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 548.46 | 638.01 | 16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,474 | 36,288 | 15.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 45.3% | 46.7% | 3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.8 | 32.9 | -5.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 903 | 875 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 13.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.2% | 64.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 72.6% change in MA stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 369.67 | 638.01 | 72.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,367 | 36,288 | 48.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.9% | 46.7% | 4.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.8 | 32.9 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 941 | 875 | 7.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 72.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MA | 72.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 82.3% | 69.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MA Return | 1% | -3% | 23% | 24% | 9% | 12% | 85% |
| Peers Return | -6% | -21% | 20% | 33% | -18% | 1% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MA Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 58% | 63% | 45% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MA Max Drawdown | -22% | -28% | -13% | -12% | -17% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -36% | -21% | -16% | -39% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: V, AXP, PYPL, FISV, GPN. See MA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | MA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Mastercard's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mastercard (MA)
Mastercard (MA) is a global technology company that serves as a vital intermediary in the electronic payment ecosystem. Its core business involves facilitating the processing of payment transactions, which includes critical steps like authorization, clearing, and settlement. Essentially, Mastercard provides the underlying infrastructure and technology that allows consumers, merchants, and financial institutions to conduct secure and efficient digital transactions worldwide.
Beyond its fundamental transaction processing, Mastercard offers a comprehensive suite of products and value-added services. These include various consumer and commercial credit and debit payment solutions, prepaid card programs, and systems that enable access to funds in deposit and other accounts. The company also provides advanced services such as cyber and intelligence solutions for enhanced security, proprietary data insights, analytics, consulting, loyalty programs, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce. Furthermore, Mastercard is developing innovative platforms in areas like open banking and digital identity. Its widely recognized brands include MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus.
Mastercard operates internationally, serving a broad and diverse customer base. Its primary clients include financial institutions that issue payment cards, merchants who accept payments, individual account holders (consumers), businesses, and governmental organizations. By offering a robust portfolio of payment-related technologies and services, Mastercard empowers these various entities to participate in and benefit from the global digital economy.
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- Mastercard is like **Visa**, a global network and technology provider that processes credit and debit card payments between banks and merchants.
- Mastercard is like **AT&T** or **Verizon** for money, building and maintaining the essential global network infrastructure that enables card transactions to flow.
- Mastercard is like **Amazon Web Services (AWS)** for payments, providing the fundamental digital infrastructure and services that power card transactions worldwide.
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- Payment Transaction Processing: Facilitates the authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions for various stakeholders.
- Credit and Debit Payment Products: Offers a range of solutions for consumers and businesses, including credit, debit, and prepaid programs.
- Value-Added Services:
- Cyber & Intelligence Solutions: Provides security-focused solutions to enable safe and secure transactions.
- Data & Analytics Services: Delivers proprietary insights, analytics, consulting, and test-and-learn services based on payment data.
- Loyalty Solutions: Offers programs and services designed to enhance customer loyalty.
- E-commerce Gateway Solutions: Provides processing and payment gateway services tailored for online merchants.
- Platform Services:
- Open Banking Platforms: Facilitates secure data exchange and interoperability within the financial ecosystem.
- Digital Identity Platforms: Offers services for the verification and management of digital identities.
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Mastercard (MA) primarily sells its payment processing technology, products, and services to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers include:
- Financial Institutions: These are banks, credit unions, and other financial entities that issue Mastercard-branded credit, debit, and prepaid cards to consumers and businesses. They also act as acquirers, processing transactions from merchants. Major examples include:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
- Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
- Citigroup Inc. (C)
- Merchants: Businesses of all sizes that accept Mastercard payments. Mastercard provides the underlying network and processing capabilities that enable merchants to accept payments, and also offers payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants.
- Governments and Other Organizations: Mastercard provides payment solutions and services to various government entities and other large organizations.
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Michael Miebach, Chief Executive Officer
Michael Miebach has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Mastercard since January 2021, and he is also a member of the company's board of directors. He joined Mastercard in 2010 and previously held roles as Chief Product Officer and President. Before his tenure at Mastercard, Miebach gained extensive experience in financial services and payments through senior positions at Citibank, starting his professional career there in 1994, and Barclays Bank. At Mastercard, he initially led operations for the Middle East and Africa region, contributing to financial inclusion efforts. He has been instrumental in expanding Mastercard's offerings from a card-centric business to a broader payment platform encompassing real-time payments, open banking, and digital identity. His leadership includes overseeing acquisitions like Vocalink and Finicity, which expanded Mastercard's payment flows. Miebach is also active on the boards of organizations such as IBM, the World Resources Institute, the American Red Cross, and the Metropolitan Opera. He is also a member of the U.S. Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity and serves on the board of the non-profit Accion.
Sachin Mehra, Chief Financial Officer
Sachin Mehra is the Chief Financial Officer for Mastercard, a role he has held since April 2019. He is a member of the company's Executive Leadership Team and Management Committee. Mehra joined Mastercard in June 2010 and has over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Prior to Mastercard, he held senior treasury and finance positions at Hess Corporation, General Motors, and GMAC, with a career that included international assignments in New York, Singapore, Belgium, and Shanghai. He currently serves on the board of Salesforce.
Jorn Lambert, Chief Product Officer
Jorn Lambert serves as Mastercard's Chief Product Officer, a position he assumed in May 2024, and is a member of the company's Management Committee. He joined Mastercard in 2002 and has held various leadership roles, including Chief Digital Officer (2020–2024), EVP Digital Solutions (2018–2020), EVP Digital Channels (2013–2018), and Group Head, Emerging Payments, Europe (2002–2013). Before joining Mastercard, Lambert spent several years in capital markets, where he held management positions in product development, product management, and corporate strategy. He is responsible for developing innovative and secure payment solutions and leads the Core Payments team, which focuses on advanced payment products and platforms.
Raja Rajamannar, Chief Marketing & Communications Officer, President of Healthcare business
Raja Rajamannar is the Chief Marketing & Communications Officer for Mastercard and also serves as the President of the company's healthcare business. He joined Mastercard in 2013, bringing with him over 30 years of experience as a global executive across diverse industries including consumer packaged goods, financial services, healthcare, payments, and utilities. His previous roles include Chief Transformation Officer at Elevance (formerly Anthem) and Chief Innovation & Marketing Officer at Humana. Rajamannar also held senior management positions at Unilever and Citibank, and notably served as Chairman and CEO of Diners Club, North America, where he led its turnaround. He is the author of "Quantum Marketing" and is President of the World Federation of Advertisers (WFA).
Chiro Aikat, Co-President, United States
Chiro Aikat is the Co-President, United States, for Mastercard. In this role, he oversees U.S. acceptance, which includes merchants, acquirers, governments, processors, and fintechs, as well as the commercial center of excellence and public sector engagement in the U.S. Aikat has been with Mastercard for two decades, playing an integral role in implementing various products and programs across the U.S. market. He previously led the U.S. market development and product and engineering teams, focusing on key initiatives such as Mastercard Instalments, open banking, real-time payments, and cybersecurity services. Early in his career, he was part of the efforts to transition the U.S. market to the EMV chip standard and introduce contactless payments in North America.
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- Competition and Technological Disruption: Mastercard faces intense competition from established payment networks like Visa, as well as an increasing number of fintech companies, digital wallets, and alternative payment methods. The emergence of new technologies such as real-time payments, blockchain-based solutions, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could disrupt traditional payment rails, potentially reducing the reliance on card-based transactions and impacting Mastercard's transaction volumes and market share.
- Regulatory and Legal Risks: The global payments industry is highly regulated, and Mastercard is subject to a complex and evolving landscape of laws and regulations related to interchange fees, data privacy (e.g., GDPR, CCPA), anti-money laundering, and antitrust. Adverse regulatory changes, increased scrutiny of business practices, or negative outcomes from legal proceedings could lead to significant fines, restrictions on operations, and reduced profitability.
- Cybersecurity and Data Breaches: As a critical facilitator of financial transactions and a holder of vast amounts of sensitive financial and personal data, Mastercard is a prime target for cyberattacks. A significant data breach or cybersecurity incident could lead to severe reputational damage, loss of customer trust, financial penalties from regulators, costly litigation, and a substantial impact on its operational integrity.
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Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Many central banks globally are actively exploring or developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Should these digital currencies gain widespread adoption for retail payments, they could enable direct digital transactions between consumers and merchants, potentially bypassing traditional payment networks for authorization, clearing, and settlement and diminishing Mastercard's intermediary role.
Widespread Adoption of Real-Time Payment Networks: The increasing global adoption and expansion of instant or real-time payment networks (such as FedNow in the United States, UPI in India, and SEPA Instant Credit Transfer in Europe) present an emerging threat. These systems facilitate immediate bank-to-bank transfers, often at lower costs than traditional card networks, which could divert a significant volume of transactions away from Mastercard's proprietary rails, particularly for bill payments, peer-to-peer transfers, and business-to-business transactions.
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Mastercard (symbol: MA) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services:
- Payment Processing Solutions: The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 198.9 billion by 2034.
- Credit, Debit, and Prepaid Card Payments: The global card payments market, which includes credit, debit, and prepaid cards, was valued at USD 28.6 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 56.4 trillion by 2033. Specifically, the global credit card payments market size was estimated at USD 622.76 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,433.49 billion by 2034.
- Cyber and Intelligence Solutions: The global cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 301.91 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 878.48 billion by 2034.
- Open Banking Platforms: The global open banking market size was estimated at USD 31.61 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 135.17 billion by 2030.
- Digital Identity Platforms: The global digital identity solutions market size was expected to be USD 64.44 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 168.75 billion by 2031.
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Mastercard (MA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Growth in Core Payment Network Transactions: Mastercard anticipates continued revenue expansion from increases in both domestic and cross-border transaction volumes. This is driven by healthy consumer spending and a surge in cross-border travel, which fuels higher-margin transactions. For instance, cross-border volumes were projected to jump significantly, and switched transactions have shown consistent growth.
- Expansion of Value-Added Services and Solutions: A significant driver of revenue growth comes from the strong demand for Mastercard's value-added services (VAS). These include cyber and intelligence solutions, data analytics, consulting services, loyalty solutions, and digital authentication services. This segment has consistently delivered robust growth and is a key focus for diversification beyond traditional card processing.
- Development of New Payment Flows: Mastercard is actively expanding its reach into new payment areas beyond traditional consumer card transactions. This includes growth in account-to-account (A2A) payments and commercial payment flows, where the company leverages its network to facilitate various business and government transactions.
- Strategic Partnerships and Increased Market Penetration: Forming and renewing strategic partnerships with financial institutions and merchants globally helps drive card issuance, portfolio conversions, and overall transaction volume on Mastercard's network. Examples include major debit portfolio flips and continued expansion of contactless payment penetration.
- Innovation and Pricing for Value: Mastercard's ongoing investment in innovation, such as new digital payment technologies, tokenization, and credit intelligence solutions, enables it to deliver enhanced value to its customers. The company maintains a strategy of pricing its services based on the value delivered, contributing to revenue growth from new offerings and improvements to existing ones.
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Share Repurchases
- Mastercard's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program in December 2025, authorizing the company to repurchase up to $14 billion of its Class A common stock, effective upon completion of the prior $12 billion program.
- As of December 5, 2025, approximately $4.2 billion remained under the previously approved share repurchase program.
- The company's annual share buybacks amounted to $11.727 billion in 2025, $11.035 billion in 2024, and $9.032 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Mastercard's shares outstanding have consistently declined year-over-year, with a 2.27% decrease in 2025 from 2024, a 2.01% decrease in 2024 from 2023, and a 2.57% decrease in 2023 from 2022, indicating that share repurchases have generally exceeded issuances.
- The net common equity issued/repurchased was -$11.524 billion in 2025, -$10.73 billion in 2024, and -$8.795 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In September 2024, Mastercard agreed to acquire the cybersecurity company Recorded Future for $2.65 billion, a transaction that closed earlier than expected in Q4 2024. This acquisition aims to enhance the company's cybersecurity and fraud prevention capabilities.
- Mastercard has made other strategic acquisitions to strengthen its value-added services, including Minna Technologies (October 2024), Baffin Bay Networks (March 2023), Dynamic Yield (December 2021), Arcus (November 2021), CipherTrace (September 2021), Aiia (September 2021), and Ekata (April 2021 for $850 million).
Capital Expenditures
- Mastercard's capital expenditures averaged $436.6 million for the fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025.
- Annual capital expenditures were $489 million in 2025, $474 million in 2024, $371 million in 2023, $442 million in 2022, and $407 million in 2021.
- These expenditures primarily focus on supporting the company's strategic initiatives, including investments in digital payments, security, and expanding its value-added services.
Peer Outperformance in Transaction & Payment Processing Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 34.1% | 65.9% | 123.0% | SPNT 175% · RGA 148% · RNR 148% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -4.7% | 88.8% | 91.9% | IBKR 346% · SNEX 158% · GS 144% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 30.6% | 154.1% | 91.6% | CM 143% · RY 132% · JPM 125% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 15.9% | 52.5% | 82.5% | JXN 532% · UNM 314% · MFC 190% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 7.8% | 65.6% | 64.8% | GNW 114% · L 102% · AIZ 97% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 19.8% | 69.5% | 64.1% | PGR 172% · TRV 171% · ACGL 167% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 8.3% | 55.6% | 55.1% | BRK-B 89% · VOYA 55% · JEF 32% |
| Regional Banks | 262 | 32.2% | 99.5% | 53.1% | CBC 254% · FCNCA 194% · NIC 148% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 18.4% | 43.2% | 27.9% | CBOE 172% · VIRT 158% · CME 70% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | 5.0% | 11.2% | 19.5% | LIFE 405% · ARX 89% · AJG 73% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -8.4% | 22.5% | 6.7% | WT 249% · VCTR 241% · AAMI 200% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 5.9% | 70.0% | 4.2% | ENVA 437% · FCFS 118% · AXP 95% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -3.4% | 23.7% | 3.9% | FRHC 180% · EQH 83% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -51.2% | 26.1% | -1.7% | FNMA 449% · FMCC 399% · ACT 157% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 3.9% | 35.5% | -21.1% | HASI -21% · CACC -22% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services ← | 17 | 11.6% | 11.6% | -28.8% | V 103% · MA 96% · CPAY 62% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -19.5% | -5.5% | -35.9% | RITM 36% · DX 19% · AGNC 10% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -54.3% | 14.0% | -63.3% | LPLA 77% · TW 40% · RIOT -53% |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 207.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 131.7 |
| Rev LTM | 35,292 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,350 |
| FCF LTM | 10,104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,584 |
| CFO LTM | 11,977 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 131.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.6 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 13.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 41.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 32,791 | 28,167 | 25,098 | 22,237 | |
| Payment network | 11,943 | ||||
| Value-added services and solutions | 6,941 | ||||
| Total | 32,791 | 28,167 | 25,098 | 22,237 | 18,884 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Solutions | 14,968 | 12,874 | 11,195 | 9,930 |
| Total | 14,968 | 12,874 | 11,195 | 9,930 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $638.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 558.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/25/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $586.14 | $534.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 8.8% | 19.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.8% | 22.8% |
| Downside Capture | -2.37 | 21.37 |
| Upside Capture | 33.75 | 30.55 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 4.6% | 14.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.03 | 0.16 | -0.02 | -0.12 | 0.25 | 0.62 |
| Up Beta | -0.13 | -0.53 | -0.24 | -0.02 | 0.27 | 0.70 |
| Down Beta | 0.66 | -0.25 | -0.13 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.75 |
| Up Capture | 104% | 68% | 32% | 9% | 18% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 24 | 34 | 68 | 129 | 416 |
| Down Capture | -136% | -1% | -32% | -80% | 11% | 70% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 19 | 30 | 58 | 122 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 15.9% | 22.8% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.8% | 14.4% | 0.41 | 64.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 13.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | -9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -19.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 3.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 12.9% | 23.8% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.6% | 18.3% | 0.33 | 69.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 61.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 22.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 20.8% | 27.0% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 68.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 72.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 20.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 56.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 17.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 4.2% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 5.0% |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.2% | -6.3% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.3% | 6.2% | -0.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.2% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.6% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 4.2% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 5.0% |
| 4/30/2026 | -4.2% | -6.3% | -5.9% |
| 1/29/2026 | 4.3% | 6.2% | -0.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/30/2025 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.6% | 0.2% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.0% | 0.4% | -2.0% |
| 1/31/2024 | 0.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | -5.6% | -2.2% | 6.8% |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.0% | -3.1% | -1.2% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | -1.3% | -2.2% | -7.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | -0.0% | 0.1% | 9.9% |
| 7/28/2022 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.8% | 1.9% | -3.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.7% | 15.1% | 7.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | -0.8% | -1.9% | -3.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.4% | -4.0% | -8.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.7% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 12.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.2% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.6% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 15.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -6.7% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/19/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ling, Hai | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 620.00 | 4,317 | 2,676,540 | 22,165,310 | Form |
| 2 | Genachowski, Julius | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 590.21 | 370 | 218,378 | 4,861,560 | Form | |
| 3 | Genachowski, Julius | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 585.01 | 371 | 217,040 | 5,035,211 | Form | |
| 4 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 584.00 | 3,266 | 1,907,344 | 21,403,648 | Form |
| 5 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 593.54 | 923 | 547,837 | 17,251,271 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ling, Hai | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 620.00 | 4,317 | 2,676,540 | 22,165,310 | Form |
| 2 | Genachowski, Julius | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 590.21 | 370 | 218,378 | 4,861,560 | Form | |
| 3 | Genachowski, Julius | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 585.01 | 371 | 217,040 | 5,035,211 | Form | |
| 4 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 584.00 | 3,266 | 1,907,344 | 21,403,648 | Form |
| 5 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 593.54 | 923 | 547,837 | 17,251,271 | Form |
| 6 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 572.07 | 1,000 | 572,070 | 22,834,794 | Form |
| 7 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 577.13 | 7,444 | 4,296,133 | 23,613,773 | Form |
| 8 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 565.24 | 1,191 | 673,201 | 16,950,447 | Form |
| 9 | Sachin, J. Mehra | Chief Business Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 571.87 | 3,000 | 1,715,602 | 23,398,571 | Form |
| 10 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 575.00 | 15,372 | 8,838,900 | 53,873,315 | Form |
| 11 | Kirkpatrick, Linda Pistecchia | Chief Services Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 570.31 | 4,280 | 2,440,915 | 17,781,639 | Form |
| 12 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 580.00 | 16,628 | 9,644,240 | 63,257,538 | Form |
| 13 | Miebach, Michael | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 567.68 | 16,628 | 9,439,383 | 65,805,875 | Form |
| 14 | McLaughlin, Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 534.87 | 19,800 | 10,590,347 | 20,720,387 | Form |
| 15 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 540.00 | 144 | 77,760 | 1,500,103 | Form |
| 16 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7152026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,577,863 | Form |
| 17 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,685,863 | Form |
| 18 | Arkell, Sandra A | Controller | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 540.00 | 200 | 108,000 | 1,793,863 | Form |
| 19 | Seshadri, Raj | Chief Commercial Pmts Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 529.73 | 1,977 | 1,047,276 | 8,703,109 | Form |
| 20 | Seshadri, Raj | Chief Commercial Pmts Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 525.00 | 4,828 | 2,534,700 | 8,625,398 | Form |
| 21 | McLaughlin, Edward Grunde | President & CTO, MA Tech | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 525.19 | 14,260 | 7,489,187 | 20,345,481 | Form |
| 22 | Ling, Hai | President, AP, Europe, MEA | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 495.71 | 4,485 | 2,223,269 | 12,723,796 | Form |
| 23 | Ling, Hai | President, AP, Europe, MEA | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 502.69 | 4,486 | 2,255,045 | 12,902,774 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $743.2 Mil | 22.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $36.1 Mil | 13.3% | 15 | ADD +106.0% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $62.3 Mil | 11.8% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $164.9 Mil | 10.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Atalan Capital Partners, LP | $117.2 Mil | 10.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $675.8 Mil | 10.3% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| XXEC, Inc. | $57.8 Mil | 10.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $24.6 Mil | 9.7% | 12 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $34.0 Mil | 9.1% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $112.4 Mil | 7.9% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $24.7 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $31.2 Mil | 6.5% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $261.2 Mil | 6.3% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $101.1 Mil | 6.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XXEC, Inc. | $57.8 Mil | 10.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $45.3 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Maestria Partners LLC | $15.5 Mil | 5.7% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $36.1 Mil | 13.3% | 15 | ADD +106.0% | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $106.8 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $24.7 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | ADD +6.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $67.7 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $51.5 Mil | 7.1% | 10 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cypress Funds LLC | $42.7 Mil | 7.1% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hillman Co | $39.6 Mil | 13.7% | 16 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| America First Investment Advisors, LLC | $25.4 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| J. Stern & Co. LLP | $59.3 Mil | 5.7% | 49 | TRIM -99.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $35.2 Mil | 5.6% | 10 | TRIM -83.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $191.5 Mil | 5.1% | 33 | TRIM -14.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $24.6 Mil | 9.7% | 12 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $12.5 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | TRIM -9.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $70.8 Mil | 4.6% | 31 | TRIM -6.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $73.5 Mil | 5.1% | 49 | TRIM -5.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.2 Bil | 8.8% | 27 | ADD +30.5% | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $1.1 Bil | 18.6% | 19 | TRIM -24.1% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $904.6 Mil | 6.4% | 44 | ADD +6.7% | 13F |
| Valley Forge Capital Management, LP | $743.2 Mil | 22.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $675.8 Mil | 10.3% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $478.5 Mil | 5.4% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $299.9 Mil | 6.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $290.8 Mil | 9.8% | 16 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $261.2 Mil | 6.3% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S | $224.2 Mil | 7.6% | 11 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $191.5 Mil | 5.1% | 33 | TRIM -14.7% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $164.9 Mil | 10.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $135.6 Mil | 9.5% | 13 | ADD +31.7% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $132.4 Mil | 7.6% | 27 | TRIM -45.4% | 13F |
| Cryder Capital Partners LLP | $122.8 Mil | 8.0% | 10 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Atalan Capital Partners, LP | $117.2 Mil | 10.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $112.4 Mil | 7.9% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $106.8 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $101.1 Mil | 6.0% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP | $89.7 Mil | 11.7% | 10 | ADD +94.7% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $88.9 Mil | 10.6% | 24 | TRIM -18.8% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.1% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $73.5 Mil | 5.1% | 49 | TRIM -5.7% | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $70.8 Mil | 4.6% | 31 | TRIM -6.9% | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $62.3 Mil | 11.8% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
MA Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on the rapid 19% growth of the high-margin Value-added Services segment, which is successfully differentiating the core network and securing major new partnerships. While overall growth is moderating and competition is intense, the company's pricing power and resilient transaction volumes provide a stable foundation for compounding value.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Network Toll Road(Gross Dollar Volume * Blended Fee Rate) + (Switched Transactions * Blended Fee Rate) + Services Revenue Operating leverage on the core network and the mix shift towards high-margin, data-driven Value-added Services and Solutions.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes, the strategic shift to a data and services company is creating a more defensible business.
- Value-added Services revenue grew 19% in Q3 2026, and 20% for the first nine months.
- Major deal win with Pinnacle Financial Partners to move its entire portfolio to the network.
- Pricing power demonstrated with cross-border assessments up 16% on 11% volume growth.
- Operating margin expanded by 0.9 percentage points to 60.1% over the last twelve months.
PRIMARY RISK
Primary competitor Visa is larger, more profitable, and growing its own value-added services business at a faster rate, potentially capping market share gains and pressuring margins.
- Peer Visa's operating margin is higher than Mastercard's 60.1%.
- Visa's value-added services revenue grew 30% in its fiscal 2026.
- Mastercard's forward guidance implies a slowdown from its 15.3% trailing-twelve-month growth.
- Accounts receivable grew 23.8% in Q3, outpacing revenue growth of 14%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Switched Transactions Growth | 9% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Stable | Growth has been consistent at 9% for three consecutive quarters, indicating steady network activity. The Q1 2026 rate was 10% when excluding the impact of the a business partner debit migration. |
| Cross-Border Volume Growth | 11% year-over-year for Q3 2026 (local currency basis) - Decelerating | Management attributed the slowdown to lower-yielding intra-Europe volumes impacted by a new customs fee, timing of retail promotions, and lower crypto purchases. Higher-yielding inter-regional cross-border volume was described as stable to slightly higher. |
| Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) Growth (Local Currency) | 7% (Q3 FY2026) | Measures the total dollar volume of activity (purchases and cash) on cards carrying Mastercard brands, indicating the overall health of consumer and business spending on the network. |
Services Momentum vs. Network Deceleration
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 19% growth in Value-added Services is structural, creating a 'virtuous cycle' that defends the core network and justifies a premium valuation, as shown by recent large contract wins.
CORE TENSION
Can 19% services growth offset guided 'low double digits' overall growth, which the market rewarded with a 5% stock increase post-earnings?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market rewarded the strong services growth and new deal announcements, looking past the modest cross-border deceleration.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that services growth cannot fully offset the guided slowdown in the core business, especially as competitor Visa is executing even more strongly in the same high-growth areas.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 9, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A quarterly cash dividend of 87 cents per share is scheduled to be paid. |
November 2026 | Senior Notes Mature Watch: The earliest maturity of debt principal, totaling $750 million, is scheduled to occur. |
next quarter | Essential Debit Nigeria Launch Watch: The new Essential Debit product is scheduled to launch in Nigeria through a partnership with a business partner mobile wallet ecosystem. |
1/27/2027 | Quarterly Earnings Disappointment Watch: Q4 revenue growth relative to the guided 'high end of low double digits' and any change to full-year guidance. |
1/27/2027 | Intensifying Peer Competition Watch: Visa's commentary on market share, deal wins, and value-added services growth in its next earnings report. |
1/27/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Mastercard is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
1/27/2027 | Peer Visa Earnings Watch: Peer Visa (V) is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
1/28/2027 | Peer AmEx Earnings Watch: Peer American Express (AXP) is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Sustained European Headwinds Watch: Management commentary on European volumes, cross-border trends, and the specific impact of the EU customs fee. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Strong Q3 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q3 net revenue growth of 14% and net income growth of 18%. The two-day stock reaction was 5.0% versus -2.0% for the S&P 500. | +4.5% $610.31 -> $638.01 |
2026-10-15 | Global Money Platform Launched Details: Mastercard and BVNK announced the launch of the Mastercard Global Money Platform, integrating Mastercard's payment capabilities with BVNK's stablecoin infrastructure. | +2.4% $603.24 -> $617.42 |
2026-09-29 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 87 cents per share. | -3.0% $567.40 -> $550.64 |
2026-08-03 | Citi AAdvantage Card Enhanced Details: American Airlines and Citi announced updates to the Citi / AAdvantage Executive World Legend Mastercard, enhancing premium travel benefits. | -0.3% $572.23 -> $570.24 |
2026-07-23 | Creator Economy Debit Card Details: Creator-focused banking platform Manifest Finance launched a debit card in partnership with Mastercard, targeting the creator economy. | +1.4% $531.17 -> $538.84 |
2026-06-10 | Agent Pay for Machines Launched Details: Mastercard launched Agent Pay for Machines, a new capability to enable AI agents to purchase low-value digital services at high velocity. | -1.8% $493.66 -> $484.96 |
2026-05-13 | Amazon Business Cards Launch Details: Amazon launched new Prime Business and Amazon Business credit cards, issued by U.S. Bank as part of the Mastercard network. | -2.0% $498.22 -> $488.38 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MA trades at roughly 20% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.9x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
V - Visa
Scale & Profitability LeaderVisa operates at a larger scale with $44.5 billion in revenue versus Mastercard's $36.3 billion, and achieves higher operating margins at 60.1%. Its value-added services business also grew faster recently.
AXP - American Express
Premium Consumer FocusAmerican Express operates a differentiated, closed-loop model focused on premium customers. This provides a distinct revenue stream built on high-value cardmember spending and services, a segment where Mastercard is a challenger.
Mastercard is a data and security company that monetizes a global payments network, with its primary value and growth increasingly derived from its AI-powered services that protect and enhance the ecosystem.
The company operates a 'virtuous cycle' where growth in payments volume and switched transactions feeds its proprietary data assets. This data, combined with AI, powers a growing suite of high-demand services (like security and analytics) which, in turn, differentiate the core network and help win more payment deals. This flywheel effect makes the business more resilient and expands its addressable market beyond simple transaction processing.
Sustained high-teens or greater growth in the Value-added Services segment, major deal wins that explicitly cite services as the differentiator, and successful monetization of new platforms like Agent Pay or stablecoin infrastructure.
Deceleration in services growth, significant pricing pressure on core transaction fees without a services offset, or evidence that competitors are successfully unbundling services from the payment network at scale.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly cross-border travel volumes due to isolated geopolitical events or holiday timing; minor shifts in consumer spending in one or two product categories.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's growing appreciation for the company's strategic positioning in emerging high-growth areas like agentic commerce and stablecoin infrastructure, as evidenced by recent partnerships and the acquisition of BVNK, which could lead to a re-rating based on new, non-traditional revenue streams.
Mastercard — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services Resources |
| PYMNTS |
| Payments Dive |
| The Paypers |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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