Dynex Capital (DX)
Market Price (10/6/2026): $10.86 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Dynex Capital (DX)
Market Price (10/6/2026): $10.86Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%, FCF Yield is 9.8% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 366% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 33%, Dividend Yield is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%, FCF Yield is 9.8% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -25% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 366% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Capital Markets & Investment. Themes include Fixed Income Investing, Real Estate Debt Markets, and Interest Rate Risk Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
Qualitative Assessment
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Dynex Capital (DX) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Dynex Capital reported a significant earnings miss for fiscal Q2 2026. The company announced its Q2 2026 results on July 19, 2026, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36, which fell short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.50 by 28.00%. This unexpected underperformance likely contributed to a negative market reaction early in the specified period.
2. Rising interest rates and Treasury yields created a challenging macroeconomic environment for mortgage REITs. Throughout fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1 to September 30, 2026), the 10-year Treasury yield increased significantly, reaching 5.04% by September 15, 2026, a rise of over 1% from late February 2026. Additionally, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% in September 2026, setting the target range at 3.75% to 4.0% to combat inflation. These rising borrowing costs negatively impact the net interest spread for mortgage REITs like Dynex Capital, affecting their profitability.
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Dynex Capital (DX) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Dynex Capital reported a significant earnings miss for fiscal Q2 2026. The company announced its Q2 2026 results on July 19, 2026, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36, which fell short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.50 by 28.00%. This unexpected underperformance likely contributed to a negative market reaction early in the specified period.
2. Rising interest rates and Treasury yields created a challenging macroeconomic environment for mortgage REITs. Throughout fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1 to September 30, 2026), the 10-year Treasury yield increased significantly, reaching 5.04% by September 15, 2026, a rise of over 1% from late February 2026. Additionally, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% in September 2026, setting the target range at 3.75% to 4.0% to combat inflation. These rising borrowing costs negatively impact the net interest spread for mortgage REITs like Dynex Capital, affecting their profitability.
3. The broader mortgage REIT sector experienced widespread underperformance. The challenging interest rate environment led to a sector-wide decline for mortgage REITs. As of September 21, 2026, the overall mortgage REIT index recorded a loss of 5.0% year-to-date, with commercial mortgage REITs specifically declining by 17.0% year-to-date. This broad sector weakness, fueled by investor apprehension regarding rising financing costs, put downward pressure on individual mortgage REIT stocks, including Dynex Capital.
4. The issuance of Series D Preferred Stock may have contributed to common stock pressure. On September 29, 2026, Dynex Capital completed a public offering of 4,800,000 shares of its 9.375% Series D Fixed-Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, raising US$120 million. While a capital-raising event, the issuance of new preferred stock can sometimes be perceived by the market as potentially dilutive to common shareholders or as a signal of capital needs, which can contribute to a decline in the common stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.0% change in DX stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -47.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.59 | 10.83 | -14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 304 | 502 | 65.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 79.5% | 86.8% | 9.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 5.5 | -47.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 200 | 222 | -10.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DX | -14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.8% | 35.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.5% | 27.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.1% change in DX stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.79 | 10.83 | -8.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 372 | 502 | 35.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 85.7% | 86.8% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.8 | 5.5 | -4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 156 | 222 | -29.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DX | -8.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 43.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.5% | 37.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.8% change in DX stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 366.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.53 | 10.83 | 2.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108 | 502 | 366.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 60.7% | 86.8% | 43.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 5.5 | -69.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 113 | 222 | -49.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DX | 2.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.3% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 1.2% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.5% change in DX stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 1052.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.71 | 10.83 | 40.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44 | 502 | 1052.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 86.8% | 310.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.2 | 5.5 | -87.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 222 | -75.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DX | 40.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.5% | 47.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.6% | 44.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DX Return | 2% | -15% | 12% | 14% | 29% | -11% | 27% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -20% | 20% | 4% | 22% | -18% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DX Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 53% | 60% | 63% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DX Max Drawdown | -19% | -33% | -29% | -9% | -22% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -37% | -29% | -13% | -18% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NLY, AGNC, RITM, STWD, BXMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 110 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 672 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Dynex Capital's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 672 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 140 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 506 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Dynex Capital's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Dynex Capital (DX)
Dynex Capital (DX) operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) primarily investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) within the United States. The company utilizes a leveraged approach, meaning it uses borrowed capital to acquire these securities, aiming to amplify potential returns. As a REIT, Dynex enjoys a specific tax advantage: it generally avoids corporate federal income taxes by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders, positioning it as a vehicle for income-focused investors.
The company's main investments consist of a diversified portfolio of MBS, which include residential MBS (backed by home mortgages) and commercial MBS (CMBS), including CMBS interest-only securities. Dynex differentiates its investments into "agency" MBS, which carry a principal payment guarantee from U.S. government agencies or government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, and "non-agency" MBS, which lack such a guarantee. Its primary market is the U.S. mortgage-backed securities market, and its business model is centered on generating income from these investments to provide regular distributions to its shareholders.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Dynex Capital (DX):
- It's like a specialized Simon Property Group, but instead of owning physical malls and collecting rent, it owns bundles of mortgage debt and collects interest.
- It's like a highly focused bond fund from Vanguard or BlackRock, but exclusively investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
- It's like Ally Financial, but instead of auto loans, it specializes in investing in bundles of residential and commercial mortgages.
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- Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): These are investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or government-sponsored entity.
- Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): These are investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities that do not carry a guaranty of principal payment from a U.S. government entity.
- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Interest-Only Securities: These are investments specifically in the interest-only payment streams of commercial mortgage-backed securities.
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Dynex Capital (DX) operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). Its core business model involves investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on a leveraged basis to generate income for its shareholders. The company acquires various types of MBS (agency and non-agency) and finances its investments primarily through repurchase agreements.
As an investment vehicle, Dynex Capital does not sell products or services to external "customers" in the traditional business-to-business (B2B) or business-to-consumer (B2C) sense. Therefore, it does not have major customers that purchase goods or services from it.
Instead, Dynex Capital's financial relationships primarily involve:
- Shareholders: Who invest in the company and receive distributions (dividends) from its taxable income.
- Financial Institutions: Who serve as counterparties for repurchase agreements (providing financing) or from whom Dynex Capital acquires MBS (sellers of assets). These entities are considered funding partners or asset suppliers, not customers.
The company's revenue is primarily derived from the net interest income generated by its portfolio of MBS assets.
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Byron L. Boston Chairman of the Board and Co-Chief Executive Officer
Byron L. Boston serves as Chairman of the Board and Co-Chief Executive Officer, a role he was appointed to in December 2023. He joined the board in 2012 and has served as CEO or Co-CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer since January 2014. Previously, he was President of the company from March 2012 to December 2020 and Chief Investment Officer since April 2008. Mr. Boston has an extensive background in U.S. real estate finance, asset management/investment banking, and fixed-income capital markets. His career includes building two successful public companies. He started in corporate banking with a focus on direct corporate loans and bond issuances, gaining experience with mortgage-backed securities and bond trading at Credit Suisse First Boston and Lehman Brothers. Recruited by Freddie Mac, he developed and led the initial investment plan to grow their retained portfolio. Following these successes, Mr. Boston launched Sunset Financial Resources, a mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) specializing in high-quality residential and commercial loans and securities, and led its initial public offering in March 2004. Sunset Financial Resources was sold in 2006. He consulted with Redwood Trust Inc. before joining Dynex Capital in 2008.
Smriti L. Popenoe Co-Chief Executive Officer and President
Smriti L. Popenoe joined the Board in September 2023 and is the Co-CEO and President of Dynex Capital. She previously served as Chief Investment Officer from 2014 through 2024. Ms. Popenoe has almost three decades of career success in finance and capital markets, bringing expertise in risk management, investment leadership, and portfolio optimization. She is accountable for raising, deploying, and managing the Company's capital. Prior to joining Dynex Capital, she served as Chief Risk Officer at PHH Corporation, a leading provider of mortgage banking and fleet management outsourcing services.
Michael Sartori Chief Financial Officer
Michael Sartori was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Dynex Capital, Inc. in February 2026. He has served as Dynex Capital's Head of Capital Markets and Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) since 2019, and joined the Company in 2013 as Assistant Controller. Mr. Sartori has advised on the Company's capital strategy and has been a key contributor to Dynex's strategic direction. In his role, he has overseen the identification and monitoring of performance drivers, developed financial models for transaction analysis, reviewed capital structure alternatives, and overseen forecasting and analysis. Before joining Dynex Capital, Mr. Sartori spent several years at Genworth, where he held various accounting management roles with a focus on derivatives accounting. He began his early career at Deloitte and Grant Thornton LLP.
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The addressable markets for Dynex Capital's main products and services, which include investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), are as follows:
- U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market: The U.S. MBS market, which encompasses residential and commercial MBS, had over $11 trillion in outstanding securities as of mid-2023. The market size is estimated to reach USD 15.55 trillion in 2025. This market primarily consists of agency and non-agency MBS, with the bulk of MBS being backed by residential mortgages.
- U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Market: The U.S. CMBS market had a market capitalization of approximately $1.8 trillion as of December 31, 2025.
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Dynex Capital (DX) expects several key factors to drive its future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Expansion of the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Portfolio: The company has been actively growing its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. For instance, the portfolio of TBAs and mortgages expanded significantly through 2025 and into early 2026, with current holdings at approximately $22 billion. This continuous deployment of capital into MBS is expected to increase interest-earning assets and, consequently, revenue.
- Optimized Leverage to Enhance Returns: Management is targeting leverage in the low-eights, anticipating mid-to-high teens return on equity (ROE). This strategic use of leverage aims to amplify returns from their investments, which can then be reinvested to further grow their asset base and revenue.
- Strategic Positioning for a Tighter Spread Regime: Dynex Capital is positioning itself for a return to a tighter spread environment, similar to that seen before the financial crisis. Management believes this environment will enhance the risk-return profile of their assets and provide attractive opportunities for ongoing capital deployment, leading to more profitable investments.
- Consistent Capital Raising: The company has a track record of raising substantial equity capital, with over $1.5 billion raised in the 13 months leading up to early 2026. This expanded capital base provides the necessary funding to increase the scale of its investment activities and grow its interest-earning assets.
- Benefiting from GSE Balance Sheet Activity and Increased Bank Demand: Dynex Capital anticipates positive impacts from the active participation of Government-Sponsored Entities (GSEs) in the market, which is expected to limit spread widening and enhance the risk-return profile of assets. Additionally, they project significant bank demand for mortgage-backed securities in 2026, which should create a favorable environment for their investment strategy.
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Share Repurchases
- Dynex Capital authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million on April 22, 2024, which is valid until April 30, 2026.
Share Issuance
- On June 5, 2024, Dynex Capital priced an underwritten public offering of 10,500,000 shares of common stock, expecting gross proceeds of approximately $126 million.
- The company amended its at-the-market (ATM) equity distribution agreement on January 27, 2026, increasing authorized common shares for potential sale by 60,000,000, with 67,354,187 shares remaining available for issuance under its current shelf registration.
- Net proceeds from common stock issuances during the year ended December 31, 2025, included approximately $1.2 billion from ATM issuances.
Inbound Investments
- EMG Holdings L.P. acquired a new stake in Dynex Capital, Inc. during the third quarter of a recent period (reported March 15, 2026), purchasing 695,711 shares valued at approximately $8,550,000.
- Vanguard Group Inc. increased its holdings in Dynex Capital by 21.3% during the third quarter (reported March 6, 2026), holding 7,513,849 shares worth approximately $92,345,000.
- In September 2025, Co-CEO and President Smriti Laxman Popenoe acquired 4,260 shares of Dynex Capital stock, and CFO and COO Robert Colligan purchased 4,200 shares.
Outbound Investments
- Dynex Capital's primary business involves investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), including agency and non-agency MBS.
- The company utilizes proceeds from share issuances to acquire additional investments, consistent with its investment policy.
- As of December 31, 2025, the fair value of Dynex Capital's portfolio was $19.4 billion.
Peer Outperformance in Mortgage REITs
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 15.3% | 63.9% | 114.2% | SPNT 161% · RGA 136% · RNR 133% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -2.7% | 102.8% | 103.3% | IBKR 428% · SNEX 235% · HOOD 171% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 27.7% | 128.4% | 95.7% | CM 143% · RY 130% · JPM 120% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 7.1% | 50.0% | 89.4% | JXN 528% · UNM 292% · FG 193% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 3.6% | 52.8% | 74.5% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 80% · VOYA 69% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 3.9% | 71.6% | 61.2% | ASIC 2572900% · HRTG 399% · UVE 308% |
| Regional Banks | 264 | 25.9% | 89.3% | 52.1% | GCBC 310% · ESQ 307% · PBAM 249% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 4.3% | 68.4% | 50.9% | GNW 139% · L 90% · AIZ 80% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -0.3% | 15.8% | 31.0% | VIRT 189% · CBOE 143% · CME 68% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 0.4% | 86.5% | 22.0% | ENVA 400% · EZPW 303% · FCFS 162% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -8.1% | 21.6% | 20.9% | FRHC 173% · EQH 100% · TMS -58% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 83 | -10.1% | 18.2% | 11.4% | WT 361% · VCTR 288% · AAMI 267% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -24.5% | -9.7% | 11.0% | LIFE 324% · ARX 88% · CRD-A 66% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 13 | -58.4% | 16.7% | -0.9% | FNMA 473% · FMCC 449% · ACT 174% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 9.4% | 35.5% | -13.2% | EFC 15% · CACC -13% · HASI -14% |
| Mortgage REITs ← | 33 | -14.5% | 10.1% | -26.9% | NREF 52% · RITM 33% · DX 19% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | -2.1% | -5.5% | -42.4% | V 70% · MA 67% · CPAY 54% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -37.4% | 16.1% | -61.2% | OPY 180% · LPLA 109% · GOLD 55% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.8 |
| Rev LTM | 1,606 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 295 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 394 |
| CFO LTM | 620 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 394 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 132.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 90.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 361.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 50.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 42.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 50.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.83 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/30/1989 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.30 | $12.38 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.9% | -12.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| Downside Capture | 132.79 | 66.69 |
| Upside Capture | 27.15 | 53.81 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.4% | 41.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| Up Beta | 0.71 | 0.35 | -0.01 | 0.66 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Down Beta | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 35% | 30% | 51% | 45% | 53% | 41% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 20 | 28 | 62 | 129 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 228% | 141% | 132% | 96% | 73% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 20 | 32 | 60 | 116 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DX | -0.2% | 17.8% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 2.2% | 14.8% | -0.07 | 32.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.8% | 13.0% | 0.92 | 41.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 7.0% | 29.6% | 0.23 | 34.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.9% | 20.9% | 1.71 | -23.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 13.6% | -0.14 | 46.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.1% | 44.3% | -0.68 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DX | 3.6% | 23.9% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.6% | 18.3% | 0.33 | 47.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 8.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.8% | -0.06 | 57.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.9% | 52.2% | 0.45 | 20.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DX | 5.1% | 29.9% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.8% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 43.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 42.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.4% | 0.57 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 13.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.1% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 49.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 14.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/20/2026 | -1.6% | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| 4/20/2026 | 0.8% | 2.4% | -3.4% |
| 1/26/2026 | -0.1% | -5.1% | -3.4% |
| 10/20/2025 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 4/21/2025 | -1.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| 1/27/2025 | 1.2% | 5.1% | 11.1% |
| 10/21/2024 | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 3.1% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 14.6% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.1% | -8.9% | -10.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/20/2026 | -1.6% | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| 4/20/2026 | 0.8% | 2.4% | -3.4% |
| 1/26/2026 | -0.1% | -5.1% | -3.4% |
| 10/20/2025 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 4/21/2025 | -1.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| 1/27/2025 | 1.2% | 5.1% | 11.1% |
| 10/21/2024 | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.1% |
| 7/22/2024 | 1.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 4/22/2024 | -1.0% | 2.9% | 8.3% |
| 1/29/2024 | 1.2% | -2.8% | -2.9% |
| 10/23/2023 | -3.5% | -8.9% | 8.2% |
| 7/24/2023 | 4.3% | 5.6% | -2.4% |
| 4/24/2023 | -0.4% | 0.5% | -5.9% |
| 1/30/2023 | -5.6% | -2.4% | -10.8% |
| 10/24/2022 | -6.1% | 3.2% | 8.2% |
| 7/25/2022 | -3.2% | 1.9% | -5.1% |
| 4/27/2022 | 9.6% | 14.6% | 12.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | 0.8% | 3.8% | -2.7% |
| 10/27/2021 | 0.2% | -1.1% | -1.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | 1.0% | -0.5% | 2.1% |
| 4/28/2021 | 1.8% | 2.4% | -0.2% |
| 1/28/2021 | -3.7% | -4.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/28/2020 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 11.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.0% | 3.1% | 8.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 14.6% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.1% | -8.9% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Projected Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 97.67 Mil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 95.23 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Projected Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 95.29 Mil | 5.4% | Raised | Guidance: 90.41 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2028 Projected Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 89.25 Mil | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 84.37 Mil for 2028 | |||
| 2029 Projected Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 327.73 Mil | 18.7% | Raised | Guidance: 276.03 Mil for 2029 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Tax Hedge Gains Amortization | Reported | 95.23 Mil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 95.97 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Tax Hedge Gains Amortization | Reported | 90.41 Mil | -1.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 91.38 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2028 Tax Hedge Gains Amortization | Reported | 84.37 Mil | -1.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 85.35 Mil for 2028 | |||
| 2029 Tax Hedge Gains Amortization | Reported | 276.03 Mil | -3.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 285.53 Mil for 2029 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Projected Amortization of Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 95.97 Mil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 97.92 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Projected Amortization of Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 91.38 Mil | -2.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 93.33 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2028 Projected Amortization of Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 85.35 Mil | -78.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 396.99 Mil for 2028 | |||
| 2029 Projected Amortization of Tax Hedge Gains | Reported | 285.53 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Tax Hedge Gains, Net | Reported | 97.92 Mil | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 100.42 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Tax Hedge Gains, Net | Reported | 93.33 Mil | -2.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 95.83 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2028 Tax Hedge Gains, Net | Reported | 396.99 Mil | -6.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 422.64 Mil for 2028 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connelly, Terrence John JR | Chief Investment Officer | Direct | Buy | 9282026 | 11.18 | 2,500 | 27,950 | 656,210 | Form |
| 2 | Popenoe, Smriti Laxman | Co-CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 3302026 | 12.19 | 2,000 | 24,380 | 6,712,131 | Form |
| 3 | Popenoe, Smriti Laxman | Co-CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 9292025 | 12.16 | 4,260 | 51,784 | 4,951,555 | Form |
| 4 | Colligan, Robert S | CFO and COO | Direct | Buy | 9292025 | 12.12 | 4,200 | 50,904 | 1,464,787 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connelly, Terrence John JR | Chief Investment Officer | Direct | Buy | 9282026 | 11.18 | 2,500 | 27,950 | 656,210 | Form |
| 2 | Popenoe, Smriti Laxman | Co-CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 3302026 | 12.19 | 2,000 | 24,380 | 6,712,131 | Form |
| 3 | Popenoe, Smriti Laxman | Co-CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 9292025 | 12.16 | 4,260 | 51,784 | 4,951,555 | Form |
| 4 | Colligan, Robert S | CFO and COO | Direct | Buy | 9292025 | 12.12 | 4,200 | 50,904 | 1,464,787 | Form |
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