Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $8.11 | Market Cap: $576.2 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $8.11Market Cap: $576.2 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Markets & Real Estate. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate & Duration Risk Management, and Real Estate Debt Capital Markets. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 27% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Financial Markets & Real Estate. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate & Duration Risk Management, and Real Estate Debt Capital Markets. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Invesco Mortgage Capital increased its quarterly common stock dividend for Q4 2025 and announced a shift to monthly payments starting in 2026.
In December 2025, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase from $0.34 in Q3 2025. Concurrently, Invesco Mortgage Capital revealed plans to transition from quarterly to monthly dividend declarations and payments, commencing in January 2026. Management stated this change reflected confidence in the company's strong capital structure and portfolio position, aiming to provide more timely and consistent income to shareholders. The first monthly dividend of $0.12 per share was declared in January for February 2026. This strategic move was anticipated to enhance investor appeal, particularly for income-focused investors seeking regular distributions.
2. The company reported a significant increase in book value per share and a strong economic return for the fourth quarter of 2025.
In its Q4 2025 financial results, released on January 29, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital announced a 3.7% increase in book value per common share, reaching $8.72 as of December 31, 2025, up from $8.41 on September 30, 2025. The company also achieved an 8.0% economic return for the fourth quarter. CEO John Anzalone attributed this improved performance to "financial conditions improved, underpinned by two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, robust corporate earnings and strong economic growth". Furthermore, the Q4 2025 earnings call on January 30, 2026, highlighted that the book value had risen approximately 4.5% since year-end, indicating continued positive momentum into early 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.7% change in IVR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.64 | 8.08 | 5.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72 | 120 | 65.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 73.7% | 84.5% | 14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.7 | 5.7 | -41.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 68 | 71 | -4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IVR | 5.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.3% | 17.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.9% change in IVR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.97 | 8.08 | 15.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 60 | 120 | 100.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 67.9% | 84.5% | 24.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 5.7 | -50.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 71 | -7.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IVR | 15.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -9.1% | 21.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.9% change in IVR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.15 | 8.08 | 12.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80 | 120 | 50.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 75.3% | 84.5% | 12.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.3 | 5.7 | -22.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 71 | -14.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IVR | 12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 51.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.3% | 46.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.4% change in IVR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.25 | 8.08 | 11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | -377 | 120 | -131.8% |
| P/S Multiple | -0.7 | 4.8 | -780.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 37 | 71 | -48.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| IVR | 11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 43.1% | 46.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IVR Return | -9% | -45% | -14% | 9% | 25% | 2% | -40% |
| Peers Return | 9% | -22% | 8% | 9% | 24% | 1% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IVR Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 48% | 48% | 65% | 63% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IVR Max Drawdown | -12% | -63% | -41% | -7% | -18% | -0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -38% | -23% | -6% | -9% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NLY, AGNC, STWD, ARR, DX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IVR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 572.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -89.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 836.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to NLY, AGNC, STWD, ARR, DX
In The Past
Invesco Mortgage Capital's stock fell -85.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/14/2021. A -85.1% loss requires a 572.9% gain to breakeven.
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About Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR):
- It's like a Fidelity or Vanguard mutual fund that exclusively invests in mortgage-backed securities, rather than a broad portfolio of stocks or bonds.
- It's a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but instead of owning physical buildings like Simon Property Group (malls) or Prologis (warehouses), it owns the mortgage debt on those buildings.
- Think of it as a specialized finance arm of a big bank like JPMorgan Chase, but entirely focused on buying and managing large pools of mortgage loans rather than originating them or offering consumer banking services.
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- Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation.
- Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities that are not guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation.
- Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRT Securities): Investments in unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises.
- Mortgage Loans: Investments in both residential and commercial mortgage loans.
- Real Estate-Related Financing Arrangements: Engagement in other financing activities tied to real estate.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. Based on the company's description, its business model involves generating income from the interest and returns on its portfolio. While IVR is an investor in mortgage-backed securities, it also explicitly engages in the financing of residential and commercial mortgage loans, as well as other real estate-related financing arrangements.
Therefore, the major customers of Invesco Mortgage Capital are the entities that receive these financing arrangements. Since specific names of customer companies or individuals are not provided in the description, these customers can be categorized as follows:
- Individuals: These customers are typically homeowners who receive or are the underlying borrowers of residential mortgage loans financed or held by Invesco Mortgage Capital.
- Commercial Entities: This category includes businesses, real estate developers, and other organizations that receive commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related financing arrangements from Invesco Mortgage Capital for various property acquisition, development, or refinancing needs.
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- Fannie Mae (FNMA)
- Freddie Mac (FMCC)
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- Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
- Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 601 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 141 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 200 |
| CFO LTM | 405 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 87.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 169.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 390.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 63.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 85.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 79.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 16.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 42.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/26/2009 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.54 | $7.35 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.4% | 9.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.4% | 26.4% |
| Downside Capture | 32.70 | 81.48 |
| Upside Capture | 84.20 | 81.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.7% | 50.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| Up Beta | 0.82 | -0.36 | -0.04 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| Down Beta | -0.16 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Up Capture | 27% | 85% | 97% | 82% | 75% | 107% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 62 | 131 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 86% | 52% | 37% | 44% | 86% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 59 | 112 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IVR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR | 17.4% | 26.3% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 3.6% | 19.3% | 0.06 | 46.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 50.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 47.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 22.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IVR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR | -12.5% | 36.5% | -0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.3% | 18.7% | 0.38 | 46.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 49.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 54.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 23.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with IVR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR | -9.7% | 56.2% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 36.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 43.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | -3.5% | -1.3% | -4.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 13.5% |
| 7/24/2025 | 0.9% | -1.0% | 2.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.9% | -1.6% | -3.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.9% | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 1.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.2% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 11.8% | 19.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.1% | -20.3% | -23.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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