Tearsheet

Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)


Market Price (3/14/2026): $8.11 | Market Cap: $576.2 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)


Market Price (3/14/2026): $8.11
Market Cap: $576.2 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
 
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Markets & Real Estate. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate & Duration Risk Management, and Real Estate Debt Capital Markets.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 14%, FCF Yield is 27%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 131%
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Financial Markets & Real Estate. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Interest Rate & Duration Risk Management, and Real Estate Debt Capital Markets.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
7 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) stock has gained about 5% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Invesco Mortgage Capital increased its quarterly common stock dividend for Q4 2025 and announced a shift to monthly payments starting in 2026.

In December 2025, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase from $0.34 in Q3 2025. Concurrently, Invesco Mortgage Capital revealed plans to transition from quarterly to monthly dividend declarations and payments, commencing in January 2026. Management stated this change reflected confidence in the company's strong capital structure and portfolio position, aiming to provide more timely and consistent income to shareholders. The first monthly dividend of $0.12 per share was declared in January for February 2026. This strategic move was anticipated to enhance investor appeal, particularly for income-focused investors seeking regular distributions.

2. The company reported a significant increase in book value per share and a strong economic return for the fourth quarter of 2025.

In its Q4 2025 financial results, released on January 29, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital announced a 3.7% increase in book value per common share, reaching $8.72 as of December 31, 2025, up from $8.41 on September 30, 2025. The company also achieved an 8.0% economic return for the fourth quarter. CEO John Anzalone attributed this improved performance to "financial conditions improved, underpinned by two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, robust corporate earnings and strong economic growth". Furthermore, the Q4 2025 earnings call on January 30, 2026, highlighted that the book value had risen approximately 4.5% since year-end, indicating continued positive momentum into early 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 5.7% change in IVR stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)113020253132026Change
Stock Price ($)7.648.085.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7212065.7%
Net Income Margin (%)73.7%84.5%14.7%
P/E Multiple9.75.7-41.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6871-4.9%
Cumulative Contribution5.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IVR5.7% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%25.2%
Sector (XLF)-8.3%17.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 15.9% change in IVR stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 100.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120253132026Change
Stock Price ($)6.978.0815.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)60120100.7%
Net Income Margin (%)67.9%84.5%24.5%
P/E Multiple11.35.7-50.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6671-7.1%
Cumulative Contribution15.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IVR15.9% 
Market (SPY)3.0%27.3%
Sector (XLF)-9.1%21.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.9% change in IVR stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 50.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820253132026Change
Stock Price ($)7.158.0812.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8012050.6%
Net Income Margin (%)75.3%84.5%12.3%
P/E Multiple7.35.7-22.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)6171-14.3%
Cumulative Contribution12.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IVR12.9% 
Market (SPY)12.4%51.0%
Sector (XLF)-5.3%46.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 11.4% change in IVR stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233132026Change
Stock Price ($)7.258.0811.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)-377120-131.8%
P/S Multiple-0.74.8-780.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3771-48.5%
Cumulative Contribution11.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
IVR11.4% 
Market (SPY)73.4%48.3%
Sector (XLF)43.1%46.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
IVR Return-9%-45%-14%9%25%2%-40%
Peers Return9%-22%8%9%24%1%26%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IVR Win Rate42%42%42%67%75%33% 
Peers Win Rate53%48%48%65%63%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IVR Max Drawdown-12%-63%-41%-7%-18%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-4%-38%-23%-6%-9%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NLY, AGNC, STWD, ARR, DX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIVRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven572.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-89.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven836.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to NLY, AGNC, STWD, ARR, DX

In The Past

Invesco Mortgage Capital's stock fell -85.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/14/2021. A -85.1% loss requires a 572.9% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR):

  • It's like a Fidelity or Vanguard mutual fund that exclusively invests in mortgage-backed securities, rather than a broad portfolio of stocks or bonds.
  • It's a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), but instead of owning physical buildings like Simon Property Group (malls) or Prologis (warehouses), it owns the mortgage debt on those buildings.
  • Think of it as a specialized finance arm of a big bank like JPMorgan Chase, but entirely focused on buying and managing large pools of mortgage loans rather than originating them or offering consumer banking services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation.
  • Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Investments in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities that are not guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation.
  • Credit Risk Transfer Securities (CRT Securities): Investments in unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises.
  • Mortgage Loans: Investments in both residential and commercial mortgage loans.
  • Real Estate-Related Financing Arrangements: Engagement in other financing activities tied to real estate.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. Based on the company's description, its business model involves generating income from the interest and returns on its portfolio. While IVR is an investor in mortgage-backed securities, it also explicitly engages in the financing of residential and commercial mortgage loans, as well as other real estate-related financing arrangements.

Therefore, the major customers of Invesco Mortgage Capital are the entities that receive these financing arrangements. Since specific names of customer companies or individuals are not provided in the description, these customers can be categorized as follows:

  • Individuals: These customers are typically homeowners who receive or are the underlying borrowers of residential mortgage loans financed or held by Invesco Mortgage Capital.
  • Commercial Entities: This category includes businesses, real estate developers, and other organizations that receive commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related financing arrangements from Invesco Mortgage Capital for various property acquisition, development, or refinancing needs.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Fannie Mae (FNMA)
  • Freddie Mac (FMCC)
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
  • Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
  • Citigroup Inc. (C)
  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
  • Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

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Trade Ideas

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Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
NDAQ_2282026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K02282026NDAQNasdaqInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days
0.0%0.0%0.0%
JEF_2272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02272026JEFJefferies FinancialDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PAYO_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02272026PAYOPayoneer GlobalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.0%0.0%0.0%
FOUR_2272026_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02272026FOURShift4 PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.0%0.0%0.0%
COIN_2202026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE02202026COINCoinbase GlobalDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.6%2.6%-6.5%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IVRNLYAGNCSTWDARRDXMedian
NameInvesco .Annaly C.AGNC Inv.Starwood.ARMOUR R.Dynex Ca. 
Mkt Price8.0821.8610.2317.5817.0813.0615.07
Mkt Cap0.615.211.16.41.92.04.2
Rev LTM1202,2371,797829332372601
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM157-222653709124121141
FCF 3Y Avg1931,39820761017366200
CFO LTM157693653978124121405
CFO 3Y Avg1932,12420771817366200

Growth & Margins

IVRNLYAGNCSTWDARRDXMedian
NameInvesco .Annaly C.AGNC Inv.Starwood.ARMOUR R.Dynex Ca. 
Rev Chg LTM50.6%90.4%84.7%-13.8%69,550.2%147.4%87.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg649.8%32.3%164.9%-16.3%23,240.6%174.9%169.9%
Rev Chg Q557.7%101.2%546.1%30.9%573.4%234.8%390.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM65.7%31.4%88.0%8.2%354.4%61.5%63.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM131.1%31.0%36.3%117.9%37.4%32.5%36.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2,011.2%--0.6%79.0%-91.5%85.3%
FCF/Rev LTM131.1%-9.9%36.3%85.5%37.4%32.5%36.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2,011.2%--0.6%66.4%-91.5%79.0%

Valuation

IVRNLYAGNCSTWDARRDXMedian
NameInvesco .Annaly C.AGNC Inv.Starwood.ARMOUR R.Dynex Ca. 
Mkt Cap0.615.211.16.41.92.04.2
P/S4.86.86.27.85.85.56.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E5.77.56.715.65.96.46.5
P/CFO3.721.917.16.615.416.916.2
Total Yield17.6%13.4%15.0%16.8%31.0%15.6%16.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%14.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg39.7%14.1%1.6%9.4%14.5%5.2%11.8%
D/E0.02.10.02.10.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.11.5-0.02.0-0.0-0.3-0.0

Returns

IVRNLYAGNCSTWDARRDXMedian
NameInvesco .Annaly C.AGNC Inv.Starwood.ARMOUR R.Dynex Ca. 
1M Rtn-8.1%-4.2%-9.5%-2.7%-2.0%-5.3%-4.7%
3M Rtn7.3%1.7%2.3%-2.1%5.2%0.1%2.0%
6M Rtn19.8%6.0%7.5%-9.8%21.5%12.4%10.0%
12M Rtn16.9%18.7%17.8%-0.7%9.5%9.3%13.2%
3Y Rtn23.6%72.9%55.7%29.9%11.4%62.4%42.8%
1M Excs Rtn-5.7%-1.8%-7.2%-0.3%0.4%-2.9%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn8.1%2.3%3.4%-1.1%7.5%0.5%2.8%
6M Excs Rtn16.0%2.4%4.1%-13.0%19.3%9.3%6.7%
12M Excs Rtn-3.7%-2.7%-3.8%-22.8%-11.5%-11.2%-7.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-54.9%-9.1%-22.0%-49.4%-62.3%-17.3%-35.7%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment804-377-63-1,648
Total804-377-63-1,648


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$8.08 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.6 
First Trading Date06/26/2009 
Distance from 52W High-11.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$8.54$7.35
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-5.4%9.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility24.4%26.4%
Downside Capture32.7081.48
Upside Capture84.2081.39
Correlation (SPY)24.7%50.5%
IVR Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.470.490.470.500.690.94
Up Beta0.82-0.36-0.040.230.420.62
Down Beta-0.160.560.330.400.910.99
Up Capture27%85%97%82%75%107%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days9203162131390
Down Capture86%52%37%44%86%105%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days11202959112345

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IVR
IVR17.4%26.3%0.58-
Sector ETF (XLF)3.6%19.3%0.0646.8%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8150.5%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.051.8%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.8918.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1947.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.0%44.2%-0.2422.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IVR
IVR-12.5%36.5%-0.28-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.3%18.7%0.3846.0%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6149.5%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.149.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4711.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1654.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.4%56.7%0.3323.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with IVR
IVR-9.7%56.2%0.05-
Sector ETF (XLF)12.5%22.2%0.5236.1%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7033.9%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.772.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4012.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2343.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.5%66.8%1.0710.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 215202612.8%
Average Daily Volume2.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity71.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares12.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/29/2026-3.5%-1.3%-4.7%
10/30/20255.0%7.5%13.5%
7/24/20250.9%-1.0%2.2%
5/7/20251.4%3.1%3.0%
2/20/2025-0.9%-1.6%-3.1%
11/5/2024-1.8%1.6%2.8%
8/8/20240.9%-0.7%-0.8%
5/8/20241.2%2.2%0.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121011
# Negative111312
Median Positive1.3%4.7%3.7%
Median Negative-2.7%-4.2%-6.8%
Max Positive8.7%11.8%19.2%
Max Negative-9.1%-20.3%-23.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/23/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/05/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Fleshman, Robert L DirectSell1112202524.722,000  Form
2Waldner, Robert DirectBuy30320268.451,0008,4468,446Form