Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $44.21 | Market Cap: $23.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $44.21Market Cap: $23.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 4.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x Key risksSW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 4.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x |
| Key risksSW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Smurfit WestRock (SW) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Smurfit WestRock (SW) significantly missed fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.60 by $0.15. Additionally, net sales were $8.16 billion, missing the $8.29 billion estimate by $133.85 million. Net income also declined to $219 million from $245 million in the prior year quarter. This underperformance contributed to the stock's decline of approximately 22% from late July 2026 to late October 2026.
2. Unprecedented cost inflation, particularly in energy and freight, led to a material reduction in full-year 2026 guidance. Smurfit WestRock anticipates absorbing approximately $700 million in additional freight and energy costs alone for the full fiscal year 2026, which is significantly higher than earlier expectations. Consequently, management lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $4.7 billion, down from a previous range of $4.9–$5.1 billion.
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Smurfit WestRock (SW) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Smurfit WestRock (SW) significantly missed fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45 for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.60 by $0.15. Additionally, net sales were $8.16 billion, missing the $8.29 billion estimate by $133.85 million. Net income also declined to $219 million from $245 million in the prior year quarter. This underperformance contributed to the stock's decline of approximately 22% from late July 2026 to late October 2026.
2. Unprecedented cost inflation, particularly in energy and freight, led to a material reduction in full-year 2026 guidance. Smurfit WestRock anticipates absorbing approximately $700 million in additional freight and energy costs alone for the full fiscal year 2026, which is significantly higher than earlier expectations. Consequently, management lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to approximately $4.7 billion, down from a previous range of $4.9–$5.1 billion.
3. A lag in price recovery and compressed converting margins impacted profitability. Despite implementing price increases across most paper grades, Smurfit WestRock expects the full benefit of these increases to offset rising input costs only in fiscal Q1 2027 and beyond. This timing mismatch resulted in lower converting margins, particularly in North America, as higher paper prices reached converting operations before being fully passed through to customers in fiscal Q3 2026.
4. Weakened demand in specific segments and regions further pressured performance. The company experienced "weaker than anticipated converting volumes" and noted additional pressure from weak Mexican and Brazilian demand, alongside broader European industry stress. Consumer packaging shipments declined approximately 5.8% year-over-year, and corrugated volumes decreased by about 8.7%, reflecting a challenging demand environment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.0% change in SW stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.55 | 44.19 | -3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,326 | 31,484 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 1.5% | -5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.0 | 49.0 | 1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 524 | 524 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | -3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 30.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.0% | 57.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.5% change in SW stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.61 | 44.19 | 17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,179 | 31,484 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 1.5% | -33.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.3 | 49.0 | 73.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 525 | 524 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | 17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.0% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 3.2% | 70.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.8% change in SW stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 220.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.42 | 44.19 | 24.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,676 | 31,484 | 169.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 1.5% | -70.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 49.0 | 220.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 524 | -50.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | 24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 25.2% | 67.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 46.8% | 66.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SW Return | - | - | - | 18% | -25% | 18% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 7% | 10% | 13% | -9% | -11% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SW Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 33% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 47% | 55% | 45% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SW Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -39% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -28% | -26% | -21% | -32% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IP, PKG, GPK, SON, OI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Smurfit WestRock's stock fell -15.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 18.0% gain to breakeven.
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In The Past
Smurfit WestRock's stock fell -15.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 18.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Smurfit WestRock is a global leader in sustainable, paper-based packaging solutions. This newly formed entity combines the strengths of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, bringing together extensive expertise in corrugated packaging, containerboard, and consumer packaging across key geographies. The company is dedicated to designing, manufacturing, and supplying a comprehensive range of packaging products that meet diverse industry needs.
The company's product portfolio is broad, encompassing corrugated boxes, folding cartons, containerboard, and specialized packaging solutions. Smurfit WestRock manages the entire packaging value chain, from producing high-quality paperboard to crafting finished, customized packaging products. These solutions are engineered to protect, enhance, and efficiently deliver goods for its clients.
Smurfit WestRock serves a wide array of customers across critical sectors, including food and beverage, consumer goods, e-commerce, industrial applications, and healthcare. Leveraging a substantial operational footprint in Europe, North America, and Latin America, the company capitalizes on its global scale and deep local market understanding to provide innovative and environmentally responsible packaging solutions to both multinational corporations and regional enterprises.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Smurfit WestRock (SW):
- The Procter & Gamble of industrial packaging.
- The Intel for the global supply chain, but for packaging.
- The Weyerhaeuser of paper-based packaging.
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- Containerboard and Paperboard: Manufactures various grades of paperboard, including containerboard for corrugated packaging and different types of paperboard for consumer packaging.
- Corrugated Packaging: Designs and produces a wide range of corrugated boxes, displays, and other packaging solutions for industrial, agricultural, and e-commerce applications.
- Consumer Packaging: Provides folding cartons, partitions, and other paper-based packaging solutions primarily for food, beverage, and other consumer product markets.
- Specialty Packaging Solutions: Offers specialized packaging solutions such as Bag-in-Box systems for liquids and innovative designs for unique product requirements.
- Recycling Services: Collects, processes, and sells recyclable materials, supporting sustainable packaging and circular economy initiatives.
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Smurfit WestRock (SW) is a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions, which primarily serves other businesses (B2B).
Due to the highly diversified nature of the packaging industry and Smurfit WestRock's extensive customer base across numerous sectors (such as food and beverage, consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets), the company does not typically have a small number of "major customers" that individually account for a significant portion of its consolidated net sales.
Public disclosures from its predecessor companies, such as WestRock's SEC filings, generally indicate that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of consolidated net sales in recent fiscal years. This broad customer base is characteristic of large-scale packaging providers.
Therefore, it is not possible to identify and list specific major customer companies by name and their public symbols, as the company's revenue is derived from a very broad and fragmented portfolio of business clients rather than a few dominant accounts.
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Anthony Smurfit, President & Group Chief Executive Officer
Anthony Smurfit, born in 1963 in Wigan, United Kingdom, earned a Bachelor of Science degree in management from the University of Scranton in 1985. He joined Jefferson Smurfit, a predecessor entity, in the 1980s and was appointed director in 1989. Smurfit held various management positions in the United States and Europe, including heading Smurfit France. He became Chief Operating Officer (COO) of the company's European division in 1999, then COO of the entire company in November 2002. In September 2015, he was appointed CEO of Smurfit Kappa. He notably led the combination of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock in 2024 to form Smurfit WestRock, creating a world leader in sustainable packaging. Smurfit has also served on the boards of the Confederation of European Paper Industries and Ibec, and was previously a board member of Aer Rianta (1996–2001) and C&C Group (2012–2016). He was recognized as "Forest Products International CEO of the Year" by Fastmarkets in 2025.
Ken Bowles, Executive Vice President & Group Chief Financial Officer
Ken Bowles joined the Smurfit Kappa Group in 1994. Throughout his career there, he held a number of finance roles, including Head of Tax from 2007 to 2010 and the company's first Head of Compliance in 2004. He was appointed Group Chief Financial Officer of Smurfit Kappa in April 2016 and subsequently became Executive Vice President & Group Chief Financial Officer of Smurfit WestRock in 2024 following the merger. Bowles holds a first-class MBA from the UCD Graduate School of Business. He has been instrumental in the company's global growth, strategic mergers, and leadership in sustainability efforts.
Saverio Mayer, President & Chief Executive Officer, Europe, MEA & APAC
Saverio Mayer has had a distinguished and extensive career with Smurfit WestRock, and previously with Smurfit Kappa, where he held CEO positions in Italy, Poland, and Russia. He is recognized for his commitment to plant-level autonomy and has been pivotal in fostering a strong company culture, high employee engagement, and advancing sustainability practices. Mayer was honored as "Forest Products European CEO of the Year" by Fastmarkets in 2025.
Laurent Sellier, President & Chief Executive Officer, North America (Including Mexico)
Laurent Sellier serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer for Smurfit WestRock's North American operations, which includes Mexico. He is a key member of the company's executive leadership team.
Ben Garren, Executive Vice President & Group General Counsel
Ben Garren holds the position of Executive Vice President and Group General Counsel for Smurfit WestRock, playing a crucial role in the company's legal and governance frameworks as part of the leadership team.
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The public company Smurfit WestRock (symbol: SW) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from its recent formation through a major merger, its sensitivity to economic cycles, and exposure to volatile operating costs.
- Integration Challenges and Associated Costs from the Merger: Smurfit WestRock was formed by the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock Company, primarily in 2024. This significant integration presents ongoing operational and cultural challenges as the company works to harmonize systems, processes, and corporate cultures. The merger has also resulted in substantial transaction, integration, and restructuring costs, including those associated with closing underperforming facilities and streamlining operations. These costs are expected to impact profitability and free cash flow in the near term.
- Economic Downturns and Weakness in Demand: As a global provider of packaging solutions, Smurfit WestRock's business performance is closely linked to overall economic conditions and consumer activity. A slowdown in the global economy, adverse geopolitical developments, or trade tensions and tariffs can lead to reduced demand for its packaging products, consequently impacting sales and profitability. For example, there has been a noted slump in US corrugated box demand since 2022, partly attributed to the impact of US tariffs on trading partners.
- Volatility in Operating Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions: Smurfit WestRock is vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials, such as paperboard, containerboard, wood, and recovered fiber, as well as energy, freight, wages, and chemicals. These rising costs, alongside potential labor shortages and broader supply chain issues, can put pressure on the company's margins if it cannot effectively or fully pass these increases on to its customers.
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- Corrugated Packaging: The global corrugated packaging market size was valued at approximately USD 325.37 billion in 2025. Other estimates for the global corrugated packaging market indicate a value of USD 233.8 billion in 2024, projected to grow to around USD 380 billion by 2034. The global corrugated boxes market alone was estimated at USD 162.82 billion in 2023.
- Consumer Packaging: The global consumer packaging market was valued at an estimated USD 690.23 billion in 2025. Other reports show the global consumer packaging market size was approximately USD 661.60 billion in 2024 and USD 658.76 billion in 2025.
- Containerboard: The global containerboard market size was valued at USD 141.43 billion in 2025 and USD 150.9 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 175.89 billion by 2034.
- Paper and Paperboard Packaging: The global market for paper and paperboard packaging was valued at approximately USD 381.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 620.6 billion by 2034. Another source indicates the global paperboard packaging market size was USD 191.23 billion in 2025. The broader global paperboard market was valued at USD 426.92 billion in 2024.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Smurfit WestRock (SW) over the next 2-3 years:
- Realizing Merger Synergies and Expanded Global Footprint: The 2023 merger of Smurfit Kappa Group and WestRock Company to form Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) is a significant driver. The integration of operations and leveraging the combined global footprint across more than 30 countries are expected to enhance profitability and support revenue growth. The company projects achieving over $400 million in annual pre-tax run-rate cost synergies within the first full year post-merger, and $400-$500 million within three years, which, while cost-focused, allows for competitive pricing and investment in growth. The merger already contributed to a substantial increase in net sales in Q1 2025.
- Growing Demand for Sustainable Packaging Solutions: Smurfit WestRock is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for sustainable packaging. The company's strategic direction includes a focus on using 100% renewable or recyclable materials in its products and investing in fiber-based replacements for single-use plastics. This aligns with eco-conscious consumer preferences and market trends.
- Geographic Expansion and Strong Performance in Latin America: The company is focused on geographic expansion as a key strategic priority. Latin America, in particular, has been identified as a region presenting significant opportunities for superior organic and inorganic growth. Smurfit WestRock aims for market growth of 2.0% in Latin America by 2030, building on reported strong growth in corrugated volumes in this region.
- Innovation in Products and Automated Packaging Solutions: Innovation is a core driver of growth for Smurfit WestRock. This includes offering specialized packaging solutions for niche markets such as luxury, healthcare, and pharmaceutical products. Furthermore, the company is investing in and scaling its packaging machinery and automated packaging systems. This strategy aims to deepen customer relationships, increase the adoption of consumables, and enhance margin resilience.
- Strategic Capital Investments and Operational Efficiency: Smurfit WestRock plans significant capital investments (projected $2.4 billion to $2.8 billion annually) to fund growth initiatives, including mill expansions and new converting machinery. The company is focused on operational improvements and asset optimization, especially within its North American business unit, which is considered the largest value creation opportunity. These efforts are expected to drive margin expansion and overall financial performance.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Share Repurchases
- Smurfit WestRock has indicated capacity for future share buybacks starting from 2027.
Share Issuance
- Upon the completion of the merger on July 5, 2024, Smurfit Kappa shareholders received 261,094,836 ordinary shares in Smurfit WestRock.
- WestRock stockholders received 258,228,403 Smurfit WestRock shares as part of the merger consideration.
- As of December 31, 2025, Smurfit WestRock had 523,404,255 shares outstanding, marking a 35.11% increase from 2024.
Inbound Investments
- Capital International Investors acquired a new stake in Smurfit WestRock in Q3, purchasing 388,544 shares valued at approximately $16.54 million.
- Norges Bank acquired a new stake in Smurfit WestRock in the second quarter of 2024, valued at approximately $749.7 million.
- Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position in Smurfit WestRock by 1.6% in Q2, bringing its total to 80,421,330 shares valued at approximately $3.47 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Smurfit WestRock Plc acquired CARTOMANABI S.A., a corrugated packaging company in Ecuador.
Capital Expenditures
- Smurfit WestRock anticipates annual capital expenditures between $2.4 billion and $2.8 billion.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion.
- The focus of these capital expenditures includes mill upgrades, automation, and sustainability projects aimed at improving cost structure and supporting ESG objectives.
Peer Outperformance in Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 43.1% | 129.3% | 154.2% | SCCO 260% · TGB 240% · HBM 224% |
| Steel | 14 | 21.7% | 42.4% | 118.4% | HCC 341% · STLD 273% · RS 175% |
| Gold | 38 | 23.0% | 215.6% | 113.4% | IAG 546% · OGC 392% · AGI 311% |
| Silver | 6 | 47.3% | 321.7% | 98.4% | AYA 294% · HL 156% · SVM 120% |
| Construction Materials | 6 | -12.2% | 19.0% | 38.2% | USLM 351% · CRH 108% · VMC 47% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 12.9% | 121.6% | 25.1% | CENX 160% · AA -7% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | 18.0% | 22.3% | 6.5% | GEF 22% · ATR 18% · SLGN 10% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials ← | 7 | 20.9% | 17.3% | -5.8% | PKG 120% · CCK 22% · SON -2% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -49.9% | -2.5% | -10.1% | USAR 29296% · SKE 185% · MTRN 124% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 19.7% | 2.8% | -13.5% | CBT 39% · ASH -14% · CC -50% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 42 | 15.4% | 11.4% | -19.8% | PRM 163% · NEU 127% · ECL 40% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 7 | 3.9% | 157.2% | -26.0% | PPTA 334% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 19.7% | -26.5% | -29.9% | HWKN 332% · MEOH 54% · DOW -31% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | 7.5% | 12.5% | -42.0% | CF 110% · CTVA 78% · NTR 25% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -41.8% | -62.7% | -81.1% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,231 |
| Op Inc LTM | 606 |
| FCF LTM | 383 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 263 |
| CFO LTM | 1,220 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,113 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -11.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $44.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/08/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $43.40 | $43.02 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.5% | 42.5% |
| Downside Capture | 87.47 | 120.18 |
| Upside Capture | 45.69 | 136.98 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 26.5% | 40.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.54 | 0.47 | 0.91 | 1.47 | 1.34 | 0.01 |
| Up Beta | 3.06 | 2.85 | 1.86 | 1.10 | 1.24 | -0.07 |
| Down Beta | -0.40 | -0.34 | -0.46 | 1.43 | 1.71 | 0.03 |
| Up Capture | -98% | 10% | 86% | 185% | 151% | 60% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 59 | 114 | 281 |
| Down Capture | -59% | 76% | 124% | 141% | 113% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 35 | 67 | 137 | 301 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | 29.1% | 42.5% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 26.7% | 18.3% | 1.14 | 67.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.65 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.7% | 28.8% | 0.12 | 20.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.2% | 21.3% | 1.42 | -35.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.65 | 43.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.6% | -0.55 | 11.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | 0.7% | 40.7% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.4% | 19.2% | 0.22 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.3% | 0.51 | 48.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.75 | 13.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 19.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | 0.4% | 40.7% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.7% | 20.7% | 0.45 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 48.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.60 | 13.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 19.9% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -5.2% | 2.1% | |
| 7/29/2026 | -5.0% | -4.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | 9.9% | 14.3% | -12.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | -12.2% | -15.7% | -15.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.7% | -8.4% | -4.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -4.8% | 4.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | -5.1% | 4.0% | -18.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| # Negative | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -8.4% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -15.7% | -18.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | -5.2% | 2.1% | |
| 7/29/2026 | -5.0% | -4.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% |
| 2/11/2026 | 9.9% | 14.3% | -12.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | -12.2% | -15.7% | -15.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.7% | -8.4% | -4.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -4.8% | 4.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | -5.1% | 4.0% | -18.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 12.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| 7/30/2024 | -4.1% | -13.7% | 1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| # Negative | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -8.4% | -12.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -15.7% | -18.4% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/29/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.45 | ||||||
| 2026 Freight and Energy Costs | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 4.70 Bil | -6.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.30 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 4.90 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 5.10 Bil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.15 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 5.00 Bil | 5.15 Bil | 5.30 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.15 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 5.00 Bil | 5.15 Bil | 5.30 Bil | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.00 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bowles, Ken | Executive VP and Group CFO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.26 | 10,000 | 512,600 | 7,773,271 | Form |
| 2 | Smurfit, Anthony P J | President and Group CEO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.54 | 40,000 | 2,061,600 | 84,660,119 | Form |
| 3 | Sellier, Laurent | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 50.24 | 15,562 | 781,865 | 5,794,853 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bowles, Ken | Executive VP and Group CFO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.26 | 10,000 | 512,600 | 7,773,271 | Form |
| 2 | Smurfit, Anthony P J | President and Group CEO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.54 | 40,000 | 2,061,600 | 84,660,119 | Form |
| 3 | Sellier, Laurent | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 50.24 | 15,562 | 781,865 | 5,794,853 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exane Asset Management | $38.4 Mil | 7.8% | 32 | ADD +48.1% | 13F |
| Verbena Value LP | $42.9 Mil | 7.0% | 26 | ADD +67.0% | 13F |
| Redwood Grove Capital, LLC | $17.9 Mil | 5.8% | 22 | ADD +9.2% | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $18.3 Mil | 5.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $60.1 Mil | 2.0% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $7.4 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $60.1 Mil | 2.0% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Verbena Value LP | $42.9 Mil | 7.0% | 26 | ADD +67.0% | 13F |
| Exane Asset Management | $38.4 Mil | 7.8% | 32 | ADD +48.1% | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $18.3 Mil | 5.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Redwood Grove Capital, LLC | $17.9 Mil | 5.8% | 22 | ADD +9.2% | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $7.4 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | New | 13F |
Smurfit WestRock — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials Resources |
| Packaging Europe |
| Paper, Film & Foil Converter |
| Packaging Gateway |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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