Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.825 | Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.825Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The request asks to explain a -22.8% stock movement for Smurfit WestRock (SW) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. As of the current date (December 4, 2025), this period is in the past. Here are some key points that could contribute to a negative stock movement for Smurfit WestRock during the specified period, based on information available up to December 4, 2025: 1. Weaker North American Demand and Reduced Guidance. Smurfit Westrock reported third-quarter 2025 results that were broadly in line with expectations but subsequently cut its full-year profit guidance due to weaker demand, particularly in North America. The company adjusted its expected full-year adjusted EBITDA to between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion, down from a previous forecast of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. This reduction in outlook signaled a challenging demand environment. 2. Challenging Containerboard Market Conditions. The CEO of Smurfit Westrock, Tony Smurfit, described the containerboard market, especially in Europe, as "pretty bad right now" during the Q3 2025 earnings call in October 2025. He noted that "the pain is very, very real" and anticipated more mill closures in the industry. This difficult market condition for a core product could negatively impact investor sentiment.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SW Return | - | - | - | - | - | -33% | -33% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 6% | -1% | 8% | 22% | -24% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SW Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 80% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 45% | 42% | 40% | 63% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SW Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -5% | -13% | -10% | -4% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IP, GPK, AMCR, SW, PKG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SW has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1761 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for Smurfit WestRock Stock with 5% Return (vs. -17% YTD) [10/27/2025] | Notification | ||
| Is Smurfit WestRock Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| How Does Smurfit WestRock Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Smurfit WestRock (SW) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Smurfit WestRock (SW) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Smurfit WestRock (SW) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Smurfit WestRock (SW) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Smurfit WestRock (SW) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Value & Growth: Leads Packaging of America Stock | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 17th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Smurfit WestRock
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |