Tearsheet

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $36.0 | Market Cap: $18.8 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $36.0
Market Cap: $18.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%
  Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 164%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 53x
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
  
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.9%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 164%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 53x

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SW Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SW Return------31%-18%
Peers Return12%6%-1%8%22%-24%16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SW Win Rate----80%33% 
Peers Win Rate47%45%42%40%63%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SW Max Drawdown------29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-5%-13%-10%-4%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IP, GPK, SW, PKG, AMCR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SW has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Smurfit WestRock (SW)

Better Bets than Smurfit WestRock (SW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.9%-17.9%-17.9%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.9%-23.9%-23.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.9%-17.9%-17.9%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.9%-23.9%-23.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smurfit WestRock

Financials

SWIPGPKPKGAMCRMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Packagin.Amcor  
Mkt Price36.0438.6316.07196.167.8536.04
Mkt Cap18.820.44.817.515.917.5
Rev LTM30,80621,9348,6358,64115,00915,009
Op Inc LTM1,9092741,0001,2891,3161,289
FCF LTM85-118-39562581085
FCF 3Y Avg30050748704791507
CFO LTM2,1651,1067691,2911,3901,291
CFO 3Y Avg1,4611,6329601,3321,3241,332

Growth & Margins

SWIPGPKPKGAMCRMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Packagin.Amcor  
Rev Chg LTM163.8%18.1%-5.0%9.0%10.0%10.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg65.7%2.7%1.5%1.0%1.3%1.5%
Rev Chg Q167.4%42.9%-1.5%4.6%43.8%42.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM19.2%10.2%-0.4%1.1%11.5%10.2%
Op Mgn LTM6.2%1.2%11.6%14.9%8.8%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.8%3.8%12.3%14.6%9.3%9.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.3%-0.7%0.3%-1.7%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%5.0%8.9%14.9%9.3%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.1%8.2%10.5%16.3%9.2%9.2%
FCF/Rev LTM0.3%-0.5%-4.6%7.2%5.4%0.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.6%2.6%0.3%8.6%5.5%2.6%

Valuation

SWIPGPKPKGAMCRMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Packagin.Amcor  
Mkt Cap18.820.44.817.515.917.5
P/S0.60.90.62.01.10.9
P/EBIT13.762.45.214.115.214.1
P/E53.4-755.39.119.431.219.4
P/CFO8.718.46.313.611.511.5
Total Yield5.9%3.8%13.6%7.7%8.5%7.7%
Dividend Yield4.1%4.0%2.6%2.6%5.3%4.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.2%0.3%4.9%5.1%4.6%
D/E0.80.51.20.20.90.8
Net D/E0.70.51.20.10.90.7

Returns

SWIPGPKPKGAMCRMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Packagin.Amcor  
1M Rtn-15.3%-16.7%-17.9%-10.0%-4.0%-15.3%
3M Rtn-18.0%-16.5%-27.7%1.8%-14.7%-16.5%
6M Rtn-9.2%-10.3%-24.0%8.3%-11.0%-10.3%
12M Rtn-25.6%-18.3%-42.1%-12.2%-25.1%-25.1%
3Y Rtn-31.8%-26.4%78.3%-21.1%5.3%
1M Excs Rtn-17.2%-18.1%-19.5%-10.4%-5.8%-17.2%
3M Excs Rtn-27.3%-25.3%-34.2%-6.3%-23.6%-25.3%
6M Excs Rtn-31.0%-32.0%-45.8%-13.4%-32.7%-32.0%
12M Excs Rtn-34.9%-34.8%-63.2%-28.8%-42.4%-34.9%
3Y Excs Rtn--44.3%-103.7%8.0%-97.2%-70.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging10,55411,3159,6999,0018,546
Paper1,5392,1941,7451,4911,590
Total12,09313,50911,44310,49110,135


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,625,000
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-0.3%
Average Daily Volume5,108,368
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.04
Basic Shares Quantity522,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-12.2%  
7/30/2025-1.7%-8.4%-4.3%
5/1/2025-3.7%-4.8%4.1%
2/12/2025-5.1%4.0%-18.4%
10/30/202412.0%15.9%23.2%
7/30/2024-4.1%-13.7%1.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive123
# Negative543
Median Positive12.0%9.9%4.1%
Median Negative-4.1%-8.4%-11.4%
Max Positive12.0%15.9%23.2%
Max Negative-12.2%-13.7%-18.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024307202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Finan Irial 5082025Buy39.2115,180595,1822,152,261Form
1Henao AlvaroSee Remarks2262025Sell53.904,000215,6042,391,102Form
2Bowles KenSee Remarks2202025Sell55.0624,2251,333,8286,136,877Form
3SMURFIT ANTHONY P JSee Remarks2202025Sell55.0478,0004,293,12082,810,157Form
4Lorenzatto JairoSee Remarks12202024Sell48.4449123,784921,959Form