Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $42.22 | Market Cap: $22.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $42.22Market Cap: $22.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 5.4% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% Key risksSW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 5.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Key risksSW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q4 2025 Performance and Positive 2026 Outlook Fueled Investor Confidence. Smurfit WestRock reported strong Adjusted EBITDA of $1.17 billion for Q4 2025 and $4.94 billion for the full year 2025, which, despite slight misses on net sales and EPS, pleased investors. The company further bolstered confidence by projecting Adjusted EBITDA between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion for Q1 2026 and between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion for the full year 2026, signaling an anticipated "generally better industry operating environment".
2. Successful Achievement of Merger Synergy Targets and Operational Efficiencies. The company exceeded its committed synergy target of $400 million in 2025 following the merger, demonstrating effective integration and cost management. Smurfit WestRock also undertook significant operational optimization by reducing loss-making businesses, closing approximately 600,000 tons of high-cost capacity, and decreasing its workforce by over 3,000 people during 2025, particularly focusing on improving the North American segment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.7% change in SW stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.33 | 42.06 | 9.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,138 | 31,179 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.4% | 2.2% | -6.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 31.6 | 18.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 522 | 525 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | 9.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 38.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.6% | 67.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.9% change in SW stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 167.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.68 | 42.06 | 0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,676 | 31,179 | 167.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 2.2% | -56.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.0 | 31.6 | 75.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 525 | -50.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | 0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 38.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.6% | 65.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.8% change in SW stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.28 | 42.06 | -2.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,109 | 31,179 | 47.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 2.2% | 48.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 70.3 | 31.6 | -55.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 518 | 525 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | -2.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 53.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 22.7% | 70.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SW | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 36.0% | 66.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SW Return | - | - | - | 18% | -25% | 10% | -3% |
| Peers Return | 14% | -5% | 5% | 19% | -11% | -1% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SW Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 33% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 47% | 58% | 43% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SW Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -16% | -37% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -20% | -16% | -7% | -29% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IP, PKG, GPK, SON, SEE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SW has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to IP, PKG, GPK, SON, SEE
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Smurfit WestRock (SW)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Smurfit WestRock (SW):
- The Procter & Gamble of industrial packaging.
- The Intel for the global supply chain, but for packaging.
- The Weyerhaeuser of paper-based packaging.
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- Containerboard and Paperboard: Manufactures various grades of paperboard, including containerboard for corrugated packaging and different types of paperboard for consumer packaging.
- Corrugated Packaging: Designs and produces a wide range of corrugated boxes, displays, and other packaging solutions for industrial, agricultural, and e-commerce applications.
- Consumer Packaging: Provides folding cartons, partitions, and other paper-based packaging solutions primarily for food, beverage, and other consumer product markets.
- Specialty Packaging Solutions: Offers specialized packaging solutions such as Bag-in-Box systems for liquids and innovative designs for unique product requirements.
- Recycling Services: Collects, processes, and sells recyclable materials, supporting sustainable packaging and circular economy initiatives.
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Smurfit WestRock (SW) is a global leader in sustainable packaging solutions, which primarily serves other businesses (B2B).
Due to the highly diversified nature of the packaging industry and Smurfit WestRock's extensive customer base across numerous sectors (such as food and beverage, consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial markets), the company does not typically have a small number of "major customers" that individually account for a significant portion of its consolidated net sales.
Public disclosures from its predecessor companies, such as WestRock's SEC filings, generally indicate that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of consolidated net sales in recent fiscal years. This broad customer base is characteristic of large-scale packaging providers.
Therefore, it is not possible to identify and list specific major customer companies by name and their public symbols, as the company's revenue is derived from a very broad and fragmented portfolio of business clients rather than a few dominant accounts.
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Anthony Smurfit, President & Group Chief Executive Officer
Anthony Smurfit, born in 1963 in Wigan, United Kingdom, earned a Bachelor of Science degree in management from the University of Scranton in 1985. He joined Jefferson Smurfit, a predecessor entity, in the 1980s and was appointed director in 1989. Smurfit held various management positions in the United States and Europe, including heading Smurfit France. He became Chief Operating Officer (COO) of the company's European division in 1999, then COO of the entire company in November 2002. In September 2015, he was appointed CEO of Smurfit Kappa. He notably led the combination of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock in 2024 to form Smurfit WestRock, creating a world leader in sustainable packaging. Smurfit has also served on the boards of the Confederation of European Paper Industries and Ibec, and was previously a board member of Aer Rianta (1996–2001) and C&C Group (2012–2016). He was recognized as "Forest Products International CEO of the Year" by Fastmarkets in 2025.
Ken Bowles, Executive Vice President & Group Chief Financial Officer
Ken Bowles joined the Smurfit Kappa Group in 1994. Throughout his career there, he held a number of finance roles, including Head of Tax from 2007 to 2010 and the company's first Head of Compliance in 2004. He was appointed Group Chief Financial Officer of Smurfit Kappa in April 2016 and subsequently became Executive Vice President & Group Chief Financial Officer of Smurfit WestRock in 2024 following the merger. Bowles holds a first-class MBA from the UCD Graduate School of Business. He has been instrumental in the company's global growth, strategic mergers, and leadership in sustainability efforts.
Saverio Mayer, President & Chief Executive Officer, Europe, MEA & APAC
Saverio Mayer has had a distinguished and extensive career with Smurfit WestRock, and previously with Smurfit Kappa, where he held CEO positions in Italy, Poland, and Russia. He is recognized for his commitment to plant-level autonomy and has been pivotal in fostering a strong company culture, high employee engagement, and advancing sustainability practices. Mayer was honored as "Forest Products European CEO of the Year" by Fastmarkets in 2025.
Laurent Sellier, President & Chief Executive Officer, North America (Including Mexico)
Laurent Sellier serves as the President and Chief Executive Officer for Smurfit WestRock's North American operations, which includes Mexico. He is a key member of the company's executive leadership team.
Ben Garren, Executive Vice President & Group General Counsel
Ben Garren holds the position of Executive Vice President and Group General Counsel for Smurfit WestRock, playing a crucial role in the company's legal and governance frameworks as part of the leadership team.
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The public company Smurfit WestRock (symbol: SW) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from its recent formation through a major merger, its sensitivity to economic cycles, and exposure to volatile operating costs.
- Integration Challenges and Associated Costs from the Merger: Smurfit WestRock was formed by the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock Company, primarily in 2024. This significant integration presents ongoing operational and cultural challenges as the company works to harmonize systems, processes, and corporate cultures. The merger has also resulted in substantial transaction, integration, and restructuring costs, including those associated with closing underperforming facilities and streamlining operations. These costs are expected to impact profitability and free cash flow in the near term.
- Economic Downturns and Weakness in Demand: As a global provider of packaging solutions, Smurfit WestRock's business performance is closely linked to overall economic conditions and consumer activity. A slowdown in the global economy, adverse geopolitical developments, or trade tensions and tariffs can lead to reduced demand for its packaging products, consequently impacting sales and profitability. For example, there has been a noted slump in US corrugated box demand since 2022, partly attributed to the impact of US tariffs on trading partners.
- Volatility in Operating Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions: Smurfit WestRock is vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of key raw materials, such as paperboard, containerboard, wood, and recovered fiber, as well as energy, freight, wages, and chemicals. These rising costs, alongside potential labor shortages and broader supply chain issues, can put pressure on the company's margins if it cannot effectively or fully pass these increases on to its customers.
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Smurfit WestRock (symbol: SW) operates in several significant addressable markets globally for its main products and services. The company is a leading provider of sustainable packaging solutions, primarily focused on corrugated packaging, consumer packaging, containerboard, and paperboard. The addressable markets for Smurfit WestRock's key products are as follows:- Corrugated Packaging: The global corrugated packaging market size was valued at approximately USD 325.37 billion in 2025. Other estimates for the global corrugated packaging market indicate a value of USD 233.8 billion in 2024, projected to grow to around USD 380 billion by 2034. The global corrugated boxes market alone was estimated at USD 162.82 billion in 2023.
- Consumer Packaging: The global consumer packaging market was valued at an estimated USD 690.23 billion in 2025. Other reports show the global consumer packaging market size was approximately USD 661.60 billion in 2024 and USD 658.76 billion in 2025.
- Containerboard: The global containerboard market size was valued at USD 141.43 billion in 2025 and USD 150.9 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 175.89 billion by 2034.
- Paper and Paperboard Packaging: The global market for paper and paperboard packaging was valued at approximately USD 381.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 620.6 billion by 2034. Another source indicates the global paperboard packaging market size was USD 191.23 billion in 2025. The broader global paperboard market was valued at USD 426.92 billion in 2024.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Smurfit WestRock (SW) over the next 2-3 years:
- Realizing Merger Synergies and Expanded Global Footprint: The 2023 merger of Smurfit Kappa Group and WestRock Company to form Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) is a significant driver. The integration of operations and leveraging the combined global footprint across more than 30 countries are expected to enhance profitability and support revenue growth. The company projects achieving over $400 million in annual pre-tax run-rate cost synergies within the first full year post-merger, and $400-$500 million within three years, which, while cost-focused, allows for competitive pricing and investment in growth. The merger already contributed to a substantial increase in net sales in Q1 2025.
- Growing Demand for Sustainable Packaging Solutions: Smurfit WestRock is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for sustainable packaging. The company's strategic direction includes a focus on using 100% renewable or recyclable materials in its products and investing in fiber-based replacements for single-use plastics. This aligns with eco-conscious consumer preferences and market trends.
- Geographic Expansion and Strong Performance in Latin America: The company is focused on geographic expansion as a key strategic priority. Latin America, in particular, has been identified as a region presenting significant opportunities for superior organic and inorganic growth. Smurfit WestRock aims for market growth of 2.0% in Latin America by 2030, building on reported strong growth in corrugated volumes in this region.
- Innovation in Products and Automated Packaging Solutions: Innovation is a core driver of growth for Smurfit WestRock. This includes offering specialized packaging solutions for niche markets such as luxury, healthcare, and pharmaceutical products. Furthermore, the company is investing in and scaling its packaging machinery and automated packaging systems. This strategy aims to deepen customer relationships, increase the adoption of consumables, and enhance margin resilience.
- Strategic Capital Investments and Operational Efficiency: Smurfit WestRock plans significant capital investments (projected $2.4 billion to $2.8 billion annually) to fund growth initiatives, including mill expansions and new converting machinery. The company is focused on operational improvements and asset optimization, especially within its North American business unit, which is considered the largest value creation opportunity. These efforts are expected to drive margin expansion and overall financial performance.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Smurfit WestRock (SW)
Share Repurchases
- Smurfit WestRock has indicated capacity for future share buybacks starting from 2027.
Share Issuance
- Upon the completion of the merger on July 5, 2024, Smurfit Kappa shareholders received 261,094,836 ordinary shares in Smurfit WestRock.
- WestRock stockholders received 258,228,403 Smurfit WestRock shares as part of the merger consideration.
- As of December 31, 2025, Smurfit WestRock had 523,404,255 shares outstanding, marking a 35.11% increase from 2024.
Inbound Investments
- Capital International Investors acquired a new stake in Smurfit WestRock in Q3, purchasing 388,544 shares valued at approximately $16.54 million.
- Norges Bank acquired a new stake in Smurfit WestRock in the second quarter of 2024, valued at approximately $749.7 million.
- Vanguard Group Inc. increased its position in Smurfit WestRock by 1.6% in Q2, bringing its total to 80,421,330 shares valued at approximately $3.47 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Smurfit WestRock Plc acquired CARTOMANABI S.A., a corrugated packaging company in Ecuador.
Capital Expenditures
- Smurfit WestRock anticipates annual capital expenditures between $2.4 billion and $2.8 billion.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be between $2.2 billion and $2.4 billion.
- The focus of these capital expenditures includes mill upgrades, automation, and sustainability projects aimed at improving cost structure and supporting ESG objectives.
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Trade Ideas
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| Rev LTM | 8,989 |
| Op Inc LTM | 845 |
| FCF LTM | 346 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 435 |
| CFO LTM | 1,558 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,355 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.4 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 5.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -59.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $42.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 22.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/08/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $43.08 | $41.71 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.1% | 39.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| Upside Capture | 111.92 | 84.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.6% | 38.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.86 | 1.33 | 1.46 | 1.35 | 1.19 | -0.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.71 | 1.21 | 0.57 | 1.62 | 1.22 | -0.32 |
| Down Beta | 1.87 | 3.11 | 2.66 | 2.31 | 1.35 | -0.09 |
| Up Capture | 164% | 86% | 149% | 82% | 87% | 30% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 28 | 59 | 122 | 212 |
| Down Capture | 198% | 71% | 79% | 87% | 110% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 24 | 35 | 67 | 130 | 222 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | 14.7% | 41.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 42.2% | 19.3% | 1.70 | 69.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 24.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | -0.7% | 40.5% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.3% | 18.9% | 0.28 | 66.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 23.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 45.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 23.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW | -0.3% | 40.5% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.8% | 20.6% | 0.47 | 66.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 23.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 45.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 23.0% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 9.9% | 14.3% | -12.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | -12.2% | -15.7% | -15.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.7% | -8.4% | -4.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -4.8% | 4.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | -5.1% | 4.0% | -18.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 12.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| 7/30/2024 | -4.1% | -13.7% | 1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 14.3% | 4.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -11.0% | -14.2% |
| Max Positive | 12.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -15.7% | -18.4% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 5.00 Bil | 5.15 Bil | 5.30 Bil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 4.90 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 5.10 Bil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.40 Bil | 2.45 Bil | 2.50 Bil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finan, Irial | Direct | Buy | 5082025 | 39.21 | 15,180 | 595,182 | 2,152,261 | Form | |
| 2 | Sellier, Laurent | See remarks | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 50.24 | 15,562 | 781,865 | 5,794,853 | Form |
| 3 | Bowles, Ken | Executive VP and Group CFO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.26 | 10,000 | 512,600 | 7,773,271 | Form |
| 4 | Smurfit, Anthony P J | President and Group CEO | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 51.54 | 40,000 | 2,061,600 | 84,660,119 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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