Tearsheet

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.03 | Market Cap: $19.9 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.03
Market Cap: $19.9 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 89%
Key risks
SW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 89%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60%
6 Key risks
SW key risks include [1] complex post-merger integration challenges in realizing over $400 million in targeted synergies and [2] managing the substantial debt load incurred from the transaction.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Smurfit WestRock lowered its full-year profit guidance in Q3 2025 due to weaker North American demand. On October 29, 2025, the company announced third-quarter results and revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast downwards from $5.0bn-$5.2bn to $4.9bn-$5.1bn, causing shares to drop significantly by 10.72% on that day in New York. Adjusted earnings per share also missed consensus estimates.

2. Significant weakness in North American demand directly impacted volumes and outlook. The company's finance chief noted that U.S. demand in key categories such as food, confectionery, retail, and e-commerce remained soft, prompting a decision to reduce output. This resulted in a decline of approximately 7.5% in North American corrugated volumes and a 5.8% drop in consumer packaging shipments during Q3 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SW Return-27%
Peers Return12%14%-5%5%19%-11%35%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SW Win Rate80%33% 
Peers Win Rate58%55%50%47%58%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SW Max Drawdown-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-6%-20%-16%-7%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IP, PKG, GPK, SON, SEE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SW has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,761 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Smurfit WestRock (SW)

Better Bets than Smurfit WestRock (SW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.9%5.9%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.6%0.6%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
45.1%45.1%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.6%6.6%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smurfit WestRock

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SWIPPKGGPKSONSEEMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Packagin.Graphic .Sonoco P.Sealed A. 
Mkt Price38.0238.69202.3315.5343.1641.3540.02
Mkt Cap19.820.418.14.64.36.112.1
Rev LTM31,13825,5968,7728,6097,1145,3328,690
Op Inc LTM2,172-101,296962641808885
FCF LTM800-277725-309298386342
FCF 3Y Avg473491714-48360406440
CFO LTM2,9781,1901,4368096735791,000
CFO 3Y Avg1,7921,6881,3469257276241,135

Growth & Margins

SWIPPKGGPKSONSEEMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Packagin.Graphic .Sonoco P.Sealed A. 
Rev Chg LTM89.5%42.7%7.3%-3.9%67.9%-1.2%25.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg55.9%9.0%1.1%-1.5%7.8%-2.6%4.4%
Rev Chg Q4.3%56.4%6.0%-1.2%57.3%0.5%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%9.6%1.5%-0.3%12.3%0.1%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%-0.0%14.8%11.2%9.0%15.1%10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.4%2.9%14.4%12.3%9.4%15.1%10.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%-1.4%-0.1%-0.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM9.6%4.6%16.4%9.4%9.5%10.9%9.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%8.4%16.3%10.2%13.6%11.5%10.9%
FCF/Rev LTM2.6%-1.1%8.3%-3.6%4.2%7.2%3.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.6%2.8%8.7%-0.7%6.8%7.5%4.8%

Valuation

SWIPPKGGPKSONSEEMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Packagin.Graphic .Sonoco P.Sealed A. 
Mkt Cap19.820.418.14.64.36.112.1
P/S0.71.02.20.70.61.00.8
P/EBIT12.2-145.815.76.69.77.28.4
P/E29.7-19.221.811.46.811.511.4
P/CFO7.520.613.67.26.39.08.2
Total Yield7.1%-1.6%6.9%11.0%19.5%9.9%8.5%
Dividend Yield3.7%3.6%2.3%2.2%4.8%1.1%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.8%4.3%-0.6%7.2%7.9%4.3%
D/E0.60.40.21.01.30.80.7
Net D/E0.60.40.21.01.20.80.7

Returns

SWIPPKGGPKSONSEEMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Packagin.Graphic .Sonoco P.Sealed A. 
1M Rtn12.1%5.5%3.5%0.6%7.1%-0.9%4.5%
3M Rtn-12.6%-16.6%-4.0%-21.8%-7.7%23.0%-10.2%
6M Rtn-8.3%-14.2%10.0%-26.0%1.8%37.2%-3.2%
12M Rtn-26.7%-27.1%-10.3%-44.8%-10.3%19.1%-18.5%
3Y Rtn-24.5%68.7%-23.3%-17.5%-12.2%-12.2%
1M Excs Rtn11.4%4.7%2.8%-0.2%6.3%-1.6%3.7%
3M Excs Rtn-14.2%-18.2%-6.2%-23.0%-8.3%19.5%-11.3%
6M Excs Rtn-20.7%-26.6%-2.4%-38.4%-10.6%24.8%-15.6%
12M Excs Rtn-37.5%-38.6%-23.5%-57.0%-23.9%6.7%-30.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--47.9%-6.3%-94.7%-87.8%-83.8%-83.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging10,55411,5109,6999,0018,546
Paper1,5392,2331,7451,4911,590
Total12,09313,74311,44310,49110,135


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21,852,949
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.8%
Average Daily Volume5,123,712
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.27
Basic Shares Quantity522,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-12.2%-15.7%-15.9%
7/30/2025-1.7%-8.4%-4.3%
5/1/2025-3.7%-4.8%4.1%
2/12/2025-5.1%4.0%-18.4%
10/30/202412.0%15.9%23.2%
7/30/2024-4.1%-13.7%1.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive123
# Negative543
Median Positive12.0%9.9%4.1%
Median Negative-4.1%-11.0%-15.9%
Max Positive12.0%15.9%23.2%
Max Negative-12.2%-15.7%-18.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024307202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024