Tearsheet

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.825 | Market Cap: $19.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Smurfit WestRock (SW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.825
Market Cap: $19.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The request asks to explain a -22.8% stock movement for Smurfit WestRock (SW) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. As of the current date (December 4, 2025), this period is in the past. Here are some key points that could contribute to a negative stock movement for Smurfit WestRock during the specified period, based on information available up to December 4, 2025: 1. Weaker North American Demand and Reduced Guidance. Smurfit Westrock reported third-quarter 2025 results that were broadly in line with expectations but subsequently cut its full-year profit guidance due to weaker demand, particularly in North America. The company adjusted its expected full-year adjusted EBITDA to between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion, down from a previous forecast of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. This reduction in outlook signaled a challenging demand environment. 2. Challenging Containerboard Market Conditions. The CEO of Smurfit Westrock, Tony Smurfit, described the containerboard market, especially in Europe, as "pretty bad right now" during the Q3 2025 earnings call in October 2025. He noted that "the pain is very, very real" and anticipated more mill closures in the industry. This difficult market condition for a core product could negatively impact investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SW Return------33%-33%
Peers Return12%6%-1%8%22%-24%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SW Win Rate----80%30% 
Peers Win Rate47%45%42%40%63%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SW Max Drawdown------37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-5%-13%-10%-4%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IP, GPK, AMCR, SW, PKG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SW has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Smurfit WestRock (SW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smurfit WestRock

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SWIPGPKAMCRPKGMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Amcor Packagin. 
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Growth & Margins

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NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Amcor Packagin. 
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Valuation

SWIPGPKAMCRPKGMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Amcor Packagin. 
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Returns

SWIPGPKAMCRPKGMedian
NameSmurfit .Internat.Graphic .Amcor Packagin. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging10,55411,5109,6999,0018,546
Paper1,5392,2331,7451,4911,590
Total12,09313,74311,44310,49110,135


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,040,538
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.8%
Average Daily Volume5,673,120
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.89
Basic Shares Quantity522,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024307202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024