O-I Glass (OI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.85 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
O-I Glass (OI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.85Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 229% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 229% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate 7.5% stock movement of O-I Glass (OI) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings and Raised Guidance: O-I Glass reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.48 for Q3 2025, surpassing forecasts by 14.29%, with revenue of $1.7 billion. This performance led to a 13.81% surge in the stock during premarket trading. The company also raised its full-year 2025 EPS guidance to $1.55-$1.65 and projected free cash flow of $150-$200 million.
2. Increased Institutional Investor Confidence and Analyst Upgrades: Several institutional investors increased their exposure to O-I Glass, with Prudential Financial Inc. notably increasing its holdings by 39.6% to 938,114 shares, valued at approximately $13.8 million. Analysts maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating, with firms like Bank of America upgrading the stock to a "Buy" rating and increasing their target price from $14.00 to $17.00.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OI Return | 0% | 1% | 38% | -1% | -34% | 23% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 61% | -23% | 6% | 17% | -6% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OI Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 45% | 37% | 55% | 55% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OI Max Drawdown | -61% | -8% | -4% | -16% | -39% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -12% | -38% | -14% | -12% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TGLS, CPSH, CSTE, BALL, ATR. See OI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 400 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 383 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -66.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 202.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to TGLS, CPSH, CSTE, BALL, ATR
In The Past
O-I Glass's stock fell -43.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -43.6% loss requires a 77.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for O-I Glass
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,320 |
| Op Inc LTM | 391 |
| FCF LTM | 64 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 341 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 374 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 9.1 |
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/CFO | 9.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Haudrich John | SVP & Chief Financial Officer | 8072025 | Buy | 13.05 | 2,289 | 29,879 | 5,996,575 | Form |
| 1 | ABRAHAMS DARROW A | SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary | 8072025 | Buy | 13.05 | 3,828 | 49,952 | 2,406,886 | Form |
| 2 | Hardie Gordon | President & CEO | 8072025 | Buy | 13.10 | 8,000 | 104,805 | 6,757,512 | Form |
| 3 | AUJOUANNET ARNAUD | SVP & Chief Sales & Marketing | 5092025 | Sell | 12.95 | 1,237 | 16,021 | 1,831,772 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |