Tearsheet

International Paper (IP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.685 | Market Cap: $20.4 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

International Paper (IP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.685
Market Cap: $20.4 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.6%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.36, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.7%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more.
  Key risks
IP key risks include [1] significant integration challenges and financial underperformance following its DS Smith acquisition and [2] material legal exposure from an Italian anti-competition case and a US price-fixing lawsuit.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 3.6%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.36, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -10 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.7%
9 Key risks
IP key risks include [1] significant integration challenges and financial underperformance following its DS Smith acquisition and [2] material legal exposure from an Italian anti-competition case and a US price-fixing lawsuit.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

IP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

International Paper (IP) experienced a stock decline of approximately 21.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss. On October 30, 2025, International Paper reported a significant miss on its third-quarter earnings, with a loss of $0.43 per share against an anticipated profit of $0.55 per share, and revenue of $6.22 billion, falling short of the $6.46 billion forecast. This earnings report led to a sharp stock decline of over 12% in pre-market trading.

2. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance. Concurrent with the Q3 earnings release, International Paper revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook downwards to approximately $3 billion. This was a notable reduction from the initial April expectation of $3.5 billion to $4 billion, reflecting ongoing weakness in North American and EMEA markets.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IP Return14%3%-23%10%55%-25%16%
Peers Return-17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IP Win Rate67%50%58%42%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate63%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IP Max Drawdown-42%-6%-31%-13%-9%-31% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KMB, PKG, AMCR, IP, SW. See IP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven207 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven913.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,413 days1,480 days

Compare to KMB, PKG, AMCR, IP, SW


In The Past

International Paper's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About International Paper (IP)

Better Bets than International Paper (IP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for International Paper

Peers to compare with:

Financials

IPKMBPKGAMCRSWMedian
NameInternat.Kimberly.Packagin.Amcor Smurfit . 
Mkt Price38.69102.94202.338.3738.0238.69
Mkt Cap20.434.218.119.419.819.8
Rev LTM25,59618,8838,77217,40131,13818,883
Op Inc LTM-103,1601,2961,5342,1721,534
FCF LTM-2772,102725853800800
FCF 3Y Avg4912,456714805473714
CFO LTM1,1902,8721,4361,5262,9781,526
CFO 3Y Avg1,6883,2211,3461,3661,7921,688

Growth & Margins

IPKMBPKGAMCRSWMedian
NameInternat.Kimberly.Packagin.Amcor Smurfit . 
Rev Chg LTM42.7%-3.1%7.3%28.4%89.5%28.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.0%-2.1%1.1%6.5%55.9%6.5%
Rev Chg Q56.4%-1.6%6.0%71.3%4.3%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%-0.4%1.5%15.9%1.1%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM-0.0%16.7%14.8%8.8%7.0%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.9%15.2%14.4%9.4%8.4%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.4%0.3%-0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.6%15.2%16.4%8.8%9.6%9.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%16.5%16.3%9.0%9.3%9.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.1%11.1%8.3%4.9%2.6%4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.8%12.5%8.7%5.3%2.6%5.3%

Valuation

IPKMBPKGAMCRSWMedian
NameInternat.Kimberly.Packagin.Amcor Smurfit . 
Mkt Cap20.434.218.119.419.819.8
P/S1.02.22.21.10.71.1
P/EBIT-145.813.615.715.812.213.6
P/E-19.217.021.832.529.721.8
P/CFO20.614.413.612.47.513.6
Total Yield-1.6%9.9%6.9%8.1%7.1%7.1%
Dividend Yield3.6%4.0%2.3%5.1%3.7%3.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%5.6%4.3%5.1%-4.7%
D/E0.40.20.20.80.60.4
Net D/E0.40.20.20.80.60.4

Returns

IPKMBPKGAMCRSWMedian
NameInternat.Kimberly.Packagin.Amcor Smurfit . 
1M Rtn5.5%0.5%3.5%0.6%12.1%3.5%
3M Rtn-16.6%-17.0%-4.0%2.6%-12.6%-12.6%
6M Rtn-14.2%-17.8%10.0%-4.6%-8.3%-8.3%
12M Rtn-27.1%-18.3%-10.3%-8.9%-26.7%-18.3%
3Y Rtn24.5%-14.8%68.7%-19.0%-4.9%
1M Excs Rtn4.7%-0.2%2.8%-0.2%11.4%2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-18.2%-18.3%-6.2%0.9%-14.2%-14.2%
6M Excs Rtn-26.6%-30.2%-2.4%-17.0%-20.7%-20.7%
12M Excs Rtn-38.6%-29.5%-23.5%-21.6%-37.5%-29.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.9%-84.9%-6.3%-90.0%--66.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Industrial Packaging15,59617,45116,32614,90015,326
Global Cellulose Fibers2,8903,2272,7322,3932,551
Corporate and Intrasegment Sales430483305272208
Printing Papers    4,291
Total18,91621,16119,36317,56522,376


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Industrial Packaging9191,7421,6381,7572,076
Global Cellulose Fibers-92106-3-218-6
Printing Papers    529
Total8271,8481,6351,5392,599


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Industrial Packaging16,06016,42516,24715,95116,338
Corporate and other3,8323,8905,47512,3239,924
Global Cellulose Fibers3,3693,6253,5213,4443,733
Printing Papers    3,476
Total23,26123,94025,24331,71833,471


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity53,537,148
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume4,713,121
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.36
Basic Shares Quantity528,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-12.7%-17.9%-10.3%
7/31/2025-12.8%-13.6%-7.8%
4/30/2025-4.1%-6.7%1.6%
1/30/2025-1.6%-7.1%-2.0%
10/31/202413.3%20.0%21.0%
7/24/20240.8%0.0%6.0%
4/25/2024-2.6%2.5%29.7%
2/1/2024-4.1%-5.5%-0.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81114
# Negative161310
Median Positive1.4%2.5%5.0%
Median Negative-3.4%-6.5%-6.5%
Max Positive13.3%20.0%29.7%
Max Negative-12.8%-17.9%-13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Goughnour Holly G.VP & Chief Accounting Officer5052025Sell44.857,500336,3441,413,764Form
1SULLIVAN KATHRYN D 12022024Sell58.3960035,0342,168,897Form