International Paper (IP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.49 | Market Cap: $20.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
International Paper (IP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $39.49Market Cap: $20.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
IP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, saw a significant decline in International Paper (IP) stock, primarily driven by disappointing financial results and ongoing market challenges. Here are the key points for the stock's movement:
1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Expectations: International Paper reported its third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, which fell significantly short of analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $6.22 billion, missing the consensus forecast of $6.48 billion, and posted an adjusted loss of $0.43 per share, contrary to the predicted $0.56 per share profit. This substantial earnings and revenue miss caused the stock to fall by over 10% on the day of the announcement.
2. Negative Operating Margin and Increased Operating Expenses: The company's operating margin shifted to a negative 10.8% in Q3 2025, a considerable drop from a positive 3.7% in the same quarter of the previous year. This decline was attributed to operating expenses growing faster than revenue, indicating challenges in managing costs despite ongoing transformation efforts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IP Return | 14% | 3% | -23% | 10% | 55% | -27% | 13% |
| Peers Return | 11% | 4% | -5% | 4% | 22% | -19% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IP Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 43% | 38% | 35% | 63% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IP Max Drawdown | -42% | -6% | -31% | -13% | -9% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -5% | -15% | -11% | -4% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KMB, PKG, AMCR, IP, SW. See IP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 913.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1413 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KMB, PKG, AMCR, IP, SW
In The Past
International Paper's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for International Paper
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Packaging | 15,596 | 17,451 | 16,326 | 14,900 | 15,326 |
| Global Cellulose Fibers | 2,890 | 3,227 | 2,732 | 2,393 | 2,551 |
| Corporate and Intrasegment Sales | 430 | 483 | 305 | 272 | 208 |
| Printing Papers | 4,291 | ||||
| Total | 18,916 | 21,161 | 19,363 | 17,565 | 22,376 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Packaging | 919 | 1,742 | 1,638 | 1,757 | 2,076 |
| Global Cellulose Fibers | -92 | 106 | -3 | -218 | -6 |
| Printing Papers | 529 | ||||
| Total | 827 | 1,848 | 1,635 | 1,539 | 2,599 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Packaging | 16,060 | 16,425 | 16,247 | 15,951 | 16,338 |
| Corporate and other | 3,832 | 3,890 | 5,475 | 12,323 | 9,924 |
| Global Cellulose Fibers | 3,369 | 3,625 | 3,521 | 3,444 | 3,733 |
| Printing Papers | 3,476 | ||||
| Total | 23,261 | 23,940 | 25,243 | 31,718 | 33,471 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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