Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $10.74 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $10.74Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 174% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.5% Key risksGPK key risks include [1] elevated costs reducing the expected returns on key investments like the Waco facility startup, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 174% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.5% |
| Key risksGPK key risks include [1] elevated costs reducing the expected returns on key investments like the Waco facility startup, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Graphic Packaging (GPK) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lingering impact of projected negative EBITDA and operational review.
In early February 2026, just prior to the specified period, Graphic Packaging's new CEO initiated a "comprehensive review" of operations and projected an additional $130 million negative EBITDA impact from inventory actions carrying into 2026. This forward-looking negative financial outlook continued to influence investor sentiment throughout the period.
2. Weak Q1 2026 profitability despite beating estimates.
While Graphic Packaging reported adjusted Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.06, and revenue of $2.16 billion, above estimates of $2.05 billion, the company posted a Net Loss of ($43) million for the quarter. This was a significant decline compared to a Net Income of $127 million in Q1 2025. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA fell 36% to $232 million, and margins contracted by 640 basis points to 10.8% from 17.2% in the prior-year period, primarily due to "temporary pricing dislocations, inflationary pressures, and operational headwinds".
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.0% change in GPK stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.09 | 10.76 | -11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,609 | 8,653 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 3.2% | -46.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.0 | 11.7 | 65.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 297 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 38.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | -3.1% | 40.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.3% change in GPK stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.89 | 10.76 | -32.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,609 | 8,653 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 3.2% | -46.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 11.7 | 26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 297 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -32.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 16.4% | 33.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.2% change in GPK stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.59 | 10.76 | -50.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,668 | 8,653 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 3.2% | -55.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.5 | 11.7 | 10.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 302 | 297 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -50.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -50.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 27.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.7% | 39.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -52.2% change in GPK stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.52 | 10.76 | -52.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,633 | 8,653 | -10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 3.2% | -51.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 11.7 | 4.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 309 | 297 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -52.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -52.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.9% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 45.7% | 44.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPK Return | 17% | 16% | 13% | 12% | -43% | -25% | -27% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 2% | 2% | 21% | -13% | -1% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPK Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 45% | 58% | 50% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPK Max Drawdown | -14% | -17% | -25% | -14% | -49% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -25% | -24% | -16% | -28% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IP, PKG, SON, AMCR, SLGN. See GPK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Graphic Packaging's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | GPK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 589.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 397 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1921 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Graphic Packaging's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Graphic Packaging (GPK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Graphic Packaging (GPK):
- Sysco for packaging: Just as Sysco supplies a vast array of food products and supplies to restaurants and institutions, Graphic Packaging provides a wide range of essential fiber-based packaging solutions (like cartons, cups, and materials) to major food, beverage, and foodservice companies.
- The Corning of paperboard and packaging: Similar to how Corning develops specialized glass (like Gorilla Glass) for various tech products, Graphic Packaging specializes in creating advanced paperboard materials and innovative packaging designs for consumer goods.
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- Coated Paperboard: Raw paperboard materials including Coated Unbleached Kraft (CUK), Coated Recycled Paperboard (CRB), and Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS) sold to converters and brokers.
- Folding Cartons: Paperboard packaging products used for various consumer packaged goods.
- Foodservice Packaging: Paperboard packaging products such as cups, lids, and food containers for quick-service restaurants and foodservice companies.
- Barrier Packaging: Specialized packaging products designed to protect contents from environmental factors like moisture, temperature, and oxygen.
- Laminated, Coated, and Printed Packaging Structures: Customized packaging solutions made from various grades of paperboards.
- Specialized Packaging Machines: Equipment engineered to package bottles, cans, and other consumer products for customers.
- Packaging Machine Services: Installation, support, service, and performance monitoring for their specialized packaging machines at customer plants.
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Major Customers of Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Graphic Packaging (GPK) sells primarily to other companies. While the provided background does not explicitly name specific customer companies, it describes the following major categories of customers:
- Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Companies: This broad category includes food, beverage, and other consumer products companies that utilize GPK's fiber-based packaging solutions for their retail products.
- Foodservice Companies and Quick-Service Restaurants (QSRs): These customers use GPK's paperboard packaging products such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers for prepared food and beverages.
- Paperboard Packaging Converters and Brokers: These companies purchase raw paperboard materials, including Coated Unbleached Kraft (CUK), Coated Recycled Paperboard (CRB), and Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS), from GPK for further processing or distribution.
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Robbert Rietbroek President and Chief Executive Officer
Robbert Rietbroek was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Graphic Packaging Holding Company effective January 1, 2026. He brings over 25 years of global leadership experience from various consumer products companies. Most recently, he served as the inaugural Chief Executive Officer and Director of Primo Brands Corporation, a publicly traded bottled water company. Prior to that, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Primo Water Corporation, where he led its transformative merger with BlueTriton Brands, Inc., forming Primo Brands. Earlier in his career, Mr. Rietbroek held senior leadership roles at PepsiCo, Kimberly-Clark, and Procter & Gamble across North America, Europe, South America, and Australia.
Charles D. Lischer Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer
Charles D. Lischer assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer for Graphic Packaging Holding Company effective November 7, 2025. Prior to this appointment, he served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer since 2019.
Scott Fallan Senior Vice President and President, International
Scott Fallan serves as the Senior Vice President and President, International for Graphic Packaging Holding Company.
Jean-Francois Roche Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Jean-Francois Roche holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Graphic Packaging Holding Company, where he guides the company's commercial strategy.
Elizabeth Spence Executive Vice President, Human Resources
Elizabeth Spence is the Executive Vice President, Human Resources at Graphic Packaging Holding Company.
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Here are the key risks to Graphic Packaging's business:1. Inflation and Volatility in Raw Material and Energy Costs
Graphic Packaging is significantly exposed to the volatility and inflation of raw material and energy costs. The company's manufacturing processes rely heavily on inputs such as fiber, petroleum-based materials, and energy. Fluctuations in the prices of these commodities can directly impact the company's financial results and profitability. While the company aims to implement productivity improvements and cost-saving initiatives, its ability to completely mitigate these unpredictable costs is not guaranteed.2. Intense Competition and Product Substitution
The company operates within a highly competitive industry, facing pressure from both domestic and international consumer packaging companies. Graphic Packaging's products compete not only with those from other paperboard manufacturers but also with packaging solutions made from alternative materials such as plastic, shrink film, and foam. This intense competition, coupled with changing consumer buying habits and product preferences, can lead to pricing pressure, declining sales volumes, and slower revenue growth. The potential for product substitution poses a continuous challenge to the company's market share and profitability.3. High Debt Levels
Graphic Packaging maintains a significant level of debt, which presents a risk to its financial stability. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is considered relatively high, indicating a substantial reliance on debt financing. High debt levels can constrain the company's flexibility, increase interest expenses, and potentially affect its ability to fund future investments or withstand economic downturns. Reports indicate that the company's net debt has increased in recent periods, and its ability to generate sufficient free cash flow to manage this debt is a point of concern.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) operates in several significant addressable markets for its fiber-based packaging solutions and paperboard products across various regions.
Fiber-Based Packaging Solutions
- The global fiber-based packaging market was valued at approximately USD 406.05 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 592.45 billion by 2035, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.85% over the decade. North America holds the largest share of this global market.
Paperboard Packaging
- The global paperboard packaging market was estimated at USD 191.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 282.38 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 3.97%. Another estimate places the global paper and paperboard packaging market at USD 381.4 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 620.6 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 5.1%. Asia Pacific leads the global paperboard packaging market. The North American region accounted for 30.1% of the global paper and paperboard packaging market share in 2024, with the U.S. market alone valued at USD 100.8 billion in 2024.
Folding Cartons
- The global folding carton packaging market was valued at USD 185.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 296.97 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.47%. Europe held the largest share of the folding cartons market in 2025 with 39.96%, while Asia Pacific dominated the global market in 2024 with a revenue share of 45.7%. The U.S. folding cartons market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 41.86 billion by 2032, and was valued at USD 54 billion in 2025.
Foodservice Packaging (including cups, lids, and food containers)
- The global food service packaging market was valued at USD 110.29 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 188.39 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5.5%. Another report calculates the global food service packaging market size at USD 144.82 billion in 2025, expected to reach around USD 223.52 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 4.94%. Asia Pacific commands the largest share of the global food service packaging market, with 45% of the total market share.
Coated Unbleached Kraft (CUK) Paperboard
- Approximately 116 million metric tons of CUK were consumed worldwide in 2024. CUK is a segment of the unbleached kraft paperboard market, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4% during the forecast period.
Coated Recycled Paperboard (CRB)
- The global Coated Recycled Paperboard market is projected to grow from USD 10,001.4 million in 2024 to an estimated USD 14,458.7 million by 2032, registering a CAGR of 4.70%. Asia Pacific dominates this market.
Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS) Paperboard
- The global Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS) paperboard market was valued at USD 12.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 18.3 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.5%. North America was the largest region in the SBS board market in 2025. The United States is a leading market for SBS paperboard, with a market size of USD 3.5 billion.
Barrier Packaging Products
- The global barrier packaging market is estimated to be valued at USD 18.91 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 24.57 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.8%. Another source indicates the global barrier packaging market size was valued at USD 42.61 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 66.39 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.11%. North America is expected to lead the barrier packaging market with a 37.7% share in 2025.
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
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Innovation in Sustainable Packaging Solutions: Graphic Packaging is focused on accelerating innovation to deliver sustainable packaging solutions that consumers prefer. The company achieved $205 million in innovation sales growth in 2024 and anticipates 2% sales growth from innovation in 2024. This includes scaling barrier-coated paper and ovenable/microwaveable fiber trays to replace less sustainable formats like PE-lined and EPS.
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Conversion from Plastic to Fiber-Based Packaging: A significant driver for GPK is the substitution of rigid plastic with fiber across various applications such as beverage carriers, multipacks, and foodservice containers. Management has identified a multi-year pipeline for this plastic-to-fiber conversion, projected to generate several hundred million dollars of annual revenue through 2026–2028, largely propelled by sustainability mandates and retailer programs.
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European Market Expansion for Fiber Multipacks: Graphic Packaging is accelerating its growth in Europe by expanding fiber multipack solutions for cans and PET across key markets like the UK, France, Spain, and DACH regions. This strategy leverages local converting assets and beverage partnerships, with management targeting double-digit percentage multipack revenue growth in Europe through 2026, driven by the phasing out of plastic ring carriers.
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Volume Growth and Market Share Gains from Optimized Capacity: Investments in new, efficient manufacturing facilities, such as the Waco, Texas recycled paperboard mill, are expected to enable increased volume and market share. The Waco facility, anticipated to start up in the fourth quarter of 2025, is projected to contribute approximately $80 million in annual EBITDA by 2026 and an additional $80 million in 2027, by providing expanded and more cost-effective capacity to meet demand. The company expects positive full-year sales growth in 2024 (excluding the impact of an asset sale) and anticipates further volume improvements.
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Here is a summary of Graphic Packaging's capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:
Share Repurchases
- As of April 30, 2025, Graphic Packaging had an aggregate available share repurchase authorization of $1.865 billion, which included a new $1.5 billion authorization from May 1, 2025, and $365 million remaining from a previous authorization dated July 27, 2023.
- During 2024, the company repurchased approximately 2% of its common shares outstanding.
- In the first nine months of 2025, Graphic Packaging repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares of common stock for $150 million.
Share Issuance
- Information detailing significant dollar amounts of share issuances over the last 3-5 years is not explicitly available in the provided search results.
Inbound Investments
- There is no explicit information in the provided search results regarding large inbound investments made in Graphic Packaging by third-parties such as strategic partners or private equity firms during the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2021, Graphic Packaging acquired AR Packaging for approximately $1.45 billion in cash, which significantly expanded its European operations and added flexible packaging capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2024 were $1,203 million, increasing from $804 million in 2023.
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures were $935 million, with the Waco, Texas greenfield recycled paperboard manufacturing facility being substantially complete at a total cost expected to be approximately $1.67 billion by the end of 2025.
- The company expects capital spending to decline significantly in the upcoming years, with projected capital expenditures around $700 million for 2025 (as of Feb 2025) and further declines to approximately 5% of sales by 2026. MarketScreener forecasts 2026 CAPEX at $446.7 million, and 2027 at $430.2 million, and 2028 at $437.5 million.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.3 |
| Rev LTM | 8,935 |
| Op Inc LTM | 707 |
| FCF LTM | 430 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 389 |
| CFO LTM | 1,225 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.3 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 10.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Paperboard Packaging | 6,101 | 6,200 | 6,015 | 4,996 | 4,650 |
| International Paperboard Packaging | 2,130 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 576 | 182 | 162 | 161 | 157 |
| Europe Paperboard Packaging | 2,024 | 1,973 | 992 | 765 | |
| Paperboard Manufacturing | 1,022 | 1,290 | 1,007 | 988 | |
| Total | 8,807 | 9,428 | 9,440 | 7,156 | 6,560 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Paperboard Packaging | 1,072 | 1,088 | 800 | 456 | 639 |
| International Paperboard Packaging | 174 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | -127 | -18 | 2 | -121 | -71 |
| Europe Paperboard Packaging | 127 | 59 | 82 | 66 | |
| Paperboard Manufacturing | -23 | 45 | -10 | -110 | |
| Total | 1,119 | 1,174 | 906 | 407 | 524 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/10/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -53.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.91 | $14.42 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 8.6% | -25.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.9% | 42.4% |
| Downside Capture | 159.09 | 148.69 |
| Upside Capture | 80.68 | 22.14 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.0% | 27.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.58 | 1.04 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 0.98 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | 4.92 | 0.44 | 1.38 | 1.13 | 1.32 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | 6.06 | 4.85 | 1.69 | 1.38 | 1.06 | 0.54 |
| Up Capture | 305% | 85% | 83% | 77% | 18% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 25 | 53 | 103 | 358 |
| Down Capture | 202% | 100% | 165% | 181% | 131% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 37 | 69 | 143 | 384 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | -50.3% | 42.3% | -1.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 21.8% | 16.8% | 1.00 | 39.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.5% | 11.8% | 1.95 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.9% | 26.7% | 1.12 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.5% | 18.9% | 1.81 | -19.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.1% | 13.2% | 0.47 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.2% | 41.6% | -0.82 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | -7.8% | 30.9% | -0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.6% | 18.9% | 0.19 | 50.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 38.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.0% | 0.83 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 41.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.0% | 54.6% | 0.43 | 14.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | 0.0% | 29.4% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.4% | 20.6% | 0.45 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 17.9% | 0.34 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.0% | 66.9% | 1.05 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 12.6% |
| 2/3/2026 | -16.0% | -10.1% | -24.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 8.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | -2.9% | -5.1% | -3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -15.6% | -13.7% | -12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.5% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | -5.6% | -8.4% | -2.4% |
| 9/3/2024 | -1.5% | -0.1% | -0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.0% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 9.3% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -13.7% | -24.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales | 8.40 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 8.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.05 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 0.75 | 0.95 | 1.15 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.95 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Cash Flow | 700.00 Mil | 750.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Spending | 450.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 450.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 8.40 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 8.60 Bil | 0 | Lower New | Guidance: 8.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.05 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.25 Bil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.43 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 0.75 | 0.95 | 1.15 | -50.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.9 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 700.00 Mil | 750.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 450.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stafeil, Jeffrey | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 0.00 | 16,261 | Form | |||
| 2 | Hagemann, Robert | Direct | Buy | 5112026 | 11.00 | 14,000 | 153,992 | 1,073,200 | Form | |
| 3 | Stafeil, Jeffrey | Direct | Buy | 5112026 | 11.19 | 17,878 | 200,001 | 200,001 | Form | |
| 4 | Rietbroek, Robbert | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 3042026 | 11.32 | 44,278 | 501,099 | 501,099 | Form |
| 5 | Yost, Joseph P | EVP & President, Americas | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 22.72 | 30,000 | 681,600 | 5,798,212 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials Resources |
| Packaging Europe |
| Paper, Film & Foil Converter |
| Packaging Gateway |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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