Tearsheet

Graphic Packaging (GPK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.26 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Graphic Packaging (GPK)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $16.26
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.8%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GPK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -26.6% stock movement for Graphic Packaging (GPK) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Graphic Packaging revised its full-year 2025 guidance, decreasing expectations for adjusted EBITDA to $1.4-$1.45 billion from a prior range of $1.45-$1.55 billion, and adjusted EPS to $1.80-$2.00 from $1.90-$2.20. Volume expectations were also shifted from "flat" to a range of "-1% to flat", which disappointed the market.

2. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Performance: The company reported declining year-over-year metrics in its third-quarter 2025 earnings. Net income for Q3 2025 was $142 million, down from $165 million in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 13% to $361 million compared to the same quarter last year, and net sales saw a 1% decline to $2,190 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GPK Return4%17%16%13%12%-39%8%
Peers Return20%56%-7%10%18%-7%110%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GPK Win Rate50%58%58%58%50%20% 
Peers Win Rate57%65%47%48%57%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GPK Max Drawdown-36%-8%-7%-8%-1%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-4%-35%-25%-13%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PKG, SEE, SON, UFPT, PACK. See GPK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGPKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven276 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven352 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-90.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven943.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1356 days1480 days

Compare to PKG, SEE, SON, UFPT, PACK


In The Past

Graphic Packaging's stock fell -25.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/12/2023. A -25.2% loss requires a 33.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Graphic Packaging (GPK)

Better Bets than Graphic Packaging (GPK)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GPK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
GPK_9122025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09122025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.4%-21.4%-26.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
GPK_9122025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09122025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-21.4%-21.4%-26.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Graphic Packaging

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GPKPKGSEESONUFPTPACKMedian
NameGraphic .Packagin.Sealed A.Sonoco P.UFP Tech.Ranpak  
Mkt Price16.27197.9542.4741.37219.665.0641.92
Mkt Cap4.817.76.34.11.70.44.5
Rev LTM8,6098,7725,3327,1145983886,223
Op Inc LTM9621,29680864195-22724
FCF LTM-30972538629887-23193
FCF 3Y Avg-4871440636056-5208
CFO LTM8091,4365796739910626
CFO 3Y Avg9251,3466247276736675

Growth & Margins

GPKPKGSEESONUFPTPACKMedian
NameGraphic .Packagin.Sealed A.Sonoco P.UFP Tech.Ranpak  
Rev Chg LTM-3.9%7.3%-1.2%67.9%29.5%9.5%8.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.5%1.1%-2.6%7.8%23.4%3.3%2.2%
Rev Chg Q-1.2%6.0%0.5%57.3%6.5%8.0%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.3%1.5%0.1%12.3%1.6%1.9%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM11.2%14.8%15.1%9.0%16.0%-5.7%13.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.3%14.4%15.1%9.4%15.8%-4.5%13.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.1%0.2%0.6%-0.6%-0.3%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM9.4%16.4%10.9%9.5%16.6%2.6%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.2%16.3%11.5%13.6%13.5%10.4%12.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.6%8.3%7.2%4.2%14.6%-5.9%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.7%8.7%7.5%6.8%11.2%-1.4%7.1%

Valuation

GPKPKGSEESONUFPTPACKMedian
NameGraphic .Packagin.Sealed A.Sonoco P.UFP Tech.Ranpak  
Mkt Cap4.817.76.34.11.70.44.5
P/S0.72.21.00.62.61.21.1
P/EBIT6.615.77.29.716.5-30.68.4
P/E11.421.811.56.822.9-12.011.4
P/CFO7.213.69.06.315.546.911.3
Total Yield11.0%6.9%9.9%19.5%4.4%-8.4%8.4%
Dividend Yield2.2%2.3%1.1%4.8%0.0%0.0%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%4.3%7.9%7.2%3.5%-1.4%3.9%
D/E1.00.20.81.30.10.90.9
Net D/E1.00.20.81.20.10.80.8

Returns

GPKPKGSEESONUFPTPACKMedian
NameGraphic .Packagin.Sealed A.Sonoco P.UFP Tech.Ranpak  
1M Rtn3.9%1.2%25.0%3.7%10.4%-1.2%3.8%
3M Rtn-21.8%-6.5%32.1%-8.8%7.9%5.9%-0.3%
6M Rtn-25.2%3.7%34.1%-5.3%-8.5%48.0%-0.8%
12M Rtn-44.9%-16.9%18.7%-16.8%-26.6%-36.8%-21.8%
3Y Rtn-25.6%56.9%-15.5%-25.1%79.7%-11.7%-13.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.9%1.2%25.0%3.7%10.4%-1.1%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-27.1%-13.5%26.9%-13.2%-0.2%-3.1%-8.2%
6M Excs Rtn-39.9%-11.1%19.4%-20.0%-23.2%33.2%-15.5%
12M Excs Rtn-58.5%-32.0%5.4%-29.9%-45.5%-48.6%-38.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-96.3%-6.6%-84.8%-95.0%15.5%-77.5%-81.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Americas Paperboard Packaging6,2006,0154,9964,6504,234
Europe Paperboard Packaging2,0241,973992765689
Paperboard Manufacturing1,0221,2901,0079881,095
Corporate and Other182162161157142
Total9,4289,4407,1566,5606,160


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Americas Paperboard Packaging1,088800456639478
Europe Paperboard Packaging12759826660
Corporate and Other-182-121-71-37
Paperboard Manufacturing-2345-10-11033
Total1,174906407524534


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity26,725,255
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120259.1%
Average Daily Volume6,694,245
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.99
Basic Shares Quantity297,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021