Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Market Price (2/23/2026): $12.41 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Market Price (2/23/2026): $12.41Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 156% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Key risksGPK key risks include [1] elevated costs reducing the expected returns on key investments like the Waco facility startup, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 156% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6% |
| Key risksGPK key risks include [1] elevated costs reducing the expected returns on key investments like the Waco facility startup, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Graphic Packaging (GPK) stock has lost about 20% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Graphic Packaging missed Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates and reported a decline in full-year net income. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.29 for the fourth quarter of 2025, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.36 by nearly 20%. This profitability miss overshadowed a slight beat in revenue and was a primary concern for investors. Additionally, full-year 2025 net income decreased to $444 million from $658 million in 2024.
2. The company issued a weaker-than-expected outlook for 2026, coupled with challenging market conditions. Graphic Packaging projected its 2026 adjusted EPS to be between $0.75 and $1.15, significantly below the consensus analyst estimate of $1.77. Management cited "consumer affordability" pressures and competitive pricing as ongoing headwinds, which have led to lower packaging volumes and a substantial 23% year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA. The company anticipates further margin compression into 2026.
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1. Graphic Packaging missed Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates and reported a decline in full-year net income. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.29 for the fourth quarter of 2025, falling short of analyst expectations of $0.36 by nearly 20%. This profitability miss overshadowed a slight beat in revenue and was a primary concern for investors. Additionally, full-year 2025 net income decreased to $444 million from $658 million in 2024.
2. The company issued a weaker-than-expected outlook for 2026, coupled with challenging market conditions. Graphic Packaging projected its 2026 adjusted EPS to be between $0.75 and $1.15, significantly below the consensus analyst estimate of $1.77. Management cited "consumer affordability" pressures and competitive pricing as ongoing headwinds, which have led to lower packaging volumes and a substantial 23% year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA. The company anticipates further margin compression into 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.1% change in GPK stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.88 | 12.52 | -21.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,635 | 8,609 | -0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.2% | 5.9% | -4.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 7.3 | -18.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 301 | 297 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -21.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 23.6% | 24.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.3% change in GPK stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.08 | 12.52 | -43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,635 | 8,609 | -0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.2% | 5.9% | -4.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 7.3 | -41.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 301 | 297 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 17.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.3% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -53.4% change in GPK stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.84 | 12.52 | -53.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,961 | 8,609 | -3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 5.9% | -25.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 7.3 | -35.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 301 | 297 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -53.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -53.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.0% | 41.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.2% change in GPK stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.86 | 12.52 | -45.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,042 | 8,609 | -4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 5.9% | 32.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 7.3 | -58.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 309 | 297 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPK | -45.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 32.0% | 45.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPK Return | 17% | 16% | 13% | 12% | -43% | -14% | -17% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -8% | -1% | 17% | -3% | 17% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPK Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 47% | 45% | 57% | 48% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPK Max Drawdown | -8% | -7% | -8% | -1% | -46% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -21% | -20% | -9% | -22% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IP, PKG, SON, AMCR, SEE. See GPK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 276 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 943.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,356 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to IP, PKG, SON, AMCR, SEE
In The Past
Graphic Packaging's stock fell -25.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/12/2023. A -25.2% loss requires a 33.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Graphic Packaging (GPK):
- They are like the 'Intel Inside' for the paperboard packaging that holds many of your favorite food and beverage items.
- Think of them as the 'Foxconn' for paperboard cartons and cups, manufacturing the packaging for major global food and beverage brands.
- Imagine them as a 'Corning' (famous for Gorilla Glass in phones) but for sustainable paperboard packaging used in countless everyday products.
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- Folding Cartons: Paperboard boxes designed for packaging a wide range of consumer goods, including food, beverages, and household products.
- Cups and Foodservice Containers: Sustainable paper-based cups, bowls, and other containers primarily used in the quick-service restaurant and food service industries.
- Coated Recycled Paperboard (CRB) & Coated Unbleached Kraft (CUK): High-performance paperboard materials manufactured for internal conversion into packaging and for sale to third-party packaging converters.
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Graphic Packaging (GPK) sells primarily to other companies, operating on a B2B (Business-to-Business) model. They provide sustainable fiber-based packaging solutions for food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer product companies.
While Graphic Packaging does not publicly disclose the names of its specific major customers (and states in its SEC filings that no single customer accounts for more than 10% of its net sales), their client base consists of leading global and regional Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies and quick-service restaurant chains. Based on their product offerings and target markets, the following public companies are representative of the types of major customers that GPK would supply:
- The Coca-Cola Company (Symbol: KO) - A global beverage giant that requires extensive packaging for multi-packs and various products.
- PepsiCo, Inc. (Symbol: PEP) - Another leading global food and beverage company with diverse packaging needs.
- McDonald's Corporation (Symbol: MCD) - A prominent global quick-service restaurant chain that relies heavily on foodservice packaging.
- General Mills, Inc. (Symbol: GIS) - A major manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods, utilizing packaging for cereals, snacks, and convenience foods.
- The Kraft Heinz Company (Symbol: KHC) - A large food and beverage company with a wide range of products requiring various packaging solutions.
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Michael P. Doss President and Chief Executive Officer
Michael P. Doss has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Graphic Packaging Holding Company since January 1, 2016. He joined Graphic Packaging International Corporation in 1990 as a management trainee and has held positions of increasing management responsibility throughout his career with the company. Prior to his current role, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President, Commercial Operations, and Senior Vice President, Consumer Packaging Division. Mr. Doss holds a Bachelor of Science in industrial marketing and a Master of Business Administration in finance from Western Michigan University. He is also a graduate of Harvard University's General Manager Program.
Charles D. Lischer Senior Vice President and interim Chief Financial Officer
Charles D. Lischer is the Senior Vice President and interim Chief Financial Officer of Graphic Packaging. He has served as the company's Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer since November 2019. Before joining Graphic Packaging, Mr. Lischer served as the Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer for Teradata, and also held various finance and accounting positions at The Coca-Cola Company and its affiliated companies.
Lauren S. Tashma Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Lauren S. Tashma has been the Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of Graphic Packaging Holding Company since February 2014. Prior to this, Ms. Tashma served as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of Fortune Brands Home & Security, Inc., and held various roles with Fortune Brands, Inc.
Joseph P. Yost Executive Vice President and President, Americas
Joseph P. Yost is the Executive Vice President and President, Americas, of Graphic Packaging Holding Company. Before May 2025, Mr. Yost was Executive Vice President and President, International since January 2022, following his role as Executive Vice President and President, Americas from January 2017 to January 2022. He has held numerous other management positions with the Company and its subsidiaries and predecessors from 1997 through August 2015.
Elizabeth Spence Executive Vice President, Human Resources
Elizabeth Spence joined Graphic Packaging as Executive Vice President, Human Resources in April 2022. Previously, she was Chief Human Resources Officer at Gypsum Management and Supply, and Vice President of Human Resources at Assurant. Ms. Spence also spent time at The Coca-Cola Company and AT&T.
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Key Risks to Graphic Packaging (GPK)
- Inflation and Volatility in Raw Material and Energy Costs: Graphic Packaging faces a significant risk from inflation and volatility in raw material and energy costs, which can negatively impact profitability. The company has already anticipated a substantial impact from inflation and faces challenges in fully offsetting these costs through timely pricing adjustments to customers. Elevated costs for materials, equipment, and labor could also reduce the expected returns on key investments, such as the Waco facility startup.
- Weakening Demand and Volume Declines: Graphic Packaging is experiencing weakening demand from major Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) customers and broader consumer pullback in spending, leading to reduced sales volumes and lower financial performance. This trend has resulted in declining net sales, net income, and adjusted EBITDA, raising concerns about the company's long-term growth trajectory and operational efficiency due to potential underutilization of production capacity.
- High Debt Burden and Financial Health: The company operates with a significant debt burden, with its debt-to-equity ratio at 1.8. Graphic Packaging's Altman Z-Score, a measure of financial distress, indicates a potential risk of bankruptcy, and the company has been issuing new debt. This rising leverage could limit the company's flexibility to fund new initiatives, manage operational challenges, or sustain dividend payments if earnings further decline.
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The clear emerging threat for Graphic Packaging is the growing global trend toward reusable and refillable packaging models.
- Major consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, which are GPK's primary customers, are increasingly committing to and investing in reusable and refillable packaging systems. Examples include initiatives like Loop by TerraCycle and commitments from brands like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo to significantly increase their reusable packaging footprint by 2030.
- This trend is driven by evolving consumer preferences for waste reduction beyond recycling, as well as increasing regulatory pressure in various jurisdictions (e.g., EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation proposals, national laws promoting bulk sales and reuse).
- While GPK specializes in sustainable, recyclable, and renewable fiber-based packaging, these are still primarily single-use solutions. A significant shift by brands and consumers to reusable models would directly reduce the overall demand for single-use packaging, thereby impacting GPK's core business model, similar to how Netflix disrupted Blockbuster's single-use rental model.
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) operates in several key addressable markets for its main products and services. These markets are global unless otherwise specified:
- Folding Cartons: The global folding carton packaging market was valued at approximately USD 177.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to surpass USD 276.01 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% from 2024 to 2034. Both Europe and Asia Pacific held significant market shares in this sector in 2023.
- Coated Unbleached Kraft Paperboard (CUK): The coated unbleached kraft paperboard market was valued at USD 10.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.8 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period of 2025-2033. North America and Europe are significant regions in this market.
- Coated Recycled Paperboard (CRB): The global coated recycled paperboard market is estimated to be valued at USD 8.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 13.2 billion by 2035, registering a CAGR of 4.7% over the forecast period. North America accounted for approximately 19.4% of the global market share in 2024.
- Foodservice Packaging: The global foodservice packaging market size was valued at USD 129.28 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 189.49 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.34% during the forecast period of 2025–2033. The Asia Pacific region commands the global foodservice packaging market, boasting 45% of the total market share.
- Beverage Packaging: The Global Beverage Packaging Market size was valued at USD 154.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 243.50 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.2% during the forecast period. Asia-Pacific dominated the Beverage Packaging Market with the largest revenue share of 38.67% in 2024.
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Graphic Packaging (GPK) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Waco Facility Ramp-up: The new Waco recycled paperboard facility is expected to be a significant contributor to future earnings. Management projects an $80 million EBITDA contribution from the Waco plant in 2026, with an additional $80 million targeted for 2027 as it reaches full production. This increased capacity and efficiency are poised to bolster revenue.
- Innovation in Sustainable Packaging: Graphic Packaging is committed to innovation, particularly in sustainable packaging solutions. This focus is opening new markets for paperboard packaging and driving new sales, with innovation contributing to growth and outperforming broader market trends. The increasing global demand for sustainable alternatives, partly due to bans on single-use plastics and consumer preferences, is a key driver for this segment.
- Volume Growth and Market Share Gains: The company anticipates low single-digit volume growth in the coming years. While recent market conditions have presented challenges, Graphic Packaging has experienced modest volume increases in specific areas, such as beverage promotions and targeted food and foodservice activities. Innovation is also expected to contribute to market share gains.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: Strategic mergers and acquisitions are a stated priority for Graphic Packaging, particularly in the European paperboard packaging segment. Such acquisitions could lead to significant revenue increases as the company expands its market presence and capabilities.
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Share Repurchases
- Graphic Packaging's Board of Directors approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization on May 1, 2025. This, combined with $365 million remaining from a July 2023 authorization, brought the total available authorization to $1.865 billion as of April 30, 2025.
- Year-to-date through the third quarter of 2025, the company repurchased approximately 6.8 million shares of its common stock for $150 million.
- Since 2018, Graphic Packaging has repurchased approximately 24% of its outstanding shares.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2020, Graphic Packaging completed the acquisition of the Consumer Packaging Group Business from Greif, Inc.
- In August 2020, the company acquired approximately 17.4 million partnership units of Graphic Packaging International Partners, LLC from International Paper for $250 million, increasing Graphic Packaging's ownership interest to 85.5%.
- Graphic Packaging acquired AR Packaging in May 2021, a "transformative acquisition" that broadened its market exposure and product portfolio, as part of a strategy that also included acquisitions of Americraft (2021) and Bell (2023) to strengthen its European presence.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be approximately $850 million.
- A primary focus of recent capital expenditures is the $1.5 billion investment in a new recycled paperboard manufacturing facility in Waco, Texas, which began commercial production in October 2025 and is expected to be the world's most efficient facility of its kind.
- Capital spending is anticipated to decline significantly in 2026 to approximately $450 million, representing about 5% of sales, which is expected to release $400 million in cash flow.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | B | Barrick Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 4.6% | 4.6% | -4.0% |
| 12262025 | EMN | Eastman Chemical | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.1% | 26.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 31.0% | 31.0% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 21.2% | 21.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 68.9% | 68.9% | 0.0% |
| 09122025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -39.3% | -39.3% | -40.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| Rev LTM | 8,690 |
| Op Inc LTM | 885 |
| FCF LTM | 342 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 449 |
| CFO LTM | 1,000 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,135 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 25.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.9 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 6.4 |
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -62.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Paperboard Packaging | 6,200 | 6,015 | 4,996 | 4,650 | 4,234 |
| Europe Paperboard Packaging | 2,024 | 1,973 | 992 | 765 | 689 |
| Paperboard Manufacturing | 1,022 | 1,290 | 1,007 | 988 | 1,095 |
| Corporate and Other | 182 | 162 | 161 | 157 | 142 |
| Total | 9,428 | 9,440 | 7,156 | 6,560 | 6,160 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas Paperboard Packaging | 1,088 | 800 | 456 | 639 | 478 |
| Europe Paperboard Packaging | 127 | 59 | 82 | 66 | 60 |
| Corporate and Other | -18 | 2 | -121 | -71 | -37 |
| Paperboard Manufacturing | -23 | 45 | -10 | -110 | 33 |
| Total | 1,174 | 906 | 407 | 524 | 534 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/10/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -53.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.62 | $18.69 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.3% | -33.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.6% | 39.9% |
| Downside Capture | 284.97 | 91.34 |
| Upside Capture | 92.38 | 1.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.7% | 25.2% |
GPK Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.58 | 1.07 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | 2.13 | 2.02 | 1.34 | 1.56 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| Down Beta | 1.75 | 0.20 | -0.79 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Up Capture | 81% | 72% | 28% | -35% | -2% | 15% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 25 | 47 | 105 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 186% | 211% | 85% | 73% | 80% | 90% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 75 | 142 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | -52.8% | 39.7% | -1.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 19.6% | 20.8% | 0.76 | 41.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 25.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.5% | 25.6% | 2.15 | -8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.7% | 44.9% | -0.65 | 13.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | -4.0% | 29.3% | -0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.4% | 18.9% | 0.39 | 51.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 38.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.1% | 1.08 | 0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 8.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 57.1% | 0.35 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | 2.8% | 28.5% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 12.7% | 20.6% | 0.55 | 58.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 17.9% | 0.77 | 49.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | -0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 16.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.0% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 45.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -16.0% | ||
| 11/4/2025 | 8.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 7/29/2025 | -2.9% | -5.1% | -3.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -15.6% | -13.7% | -12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.5% | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | -5.6% | -8.4% | -2.4% |
| 7/30/2024 | 3.9% | -0.5% | 6.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | -7.1% | -2.3% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -2.8% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 9.3% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -13.7% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yost, Joseph P | EVP & President, Americas | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 22.72 | 30,000 | 681,600 | 5,798,212 | Form |
| 2 | Martens, Philip R | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 21.84 | 56,737 | 1,239,136 | 738,760 | Form | |
| 3 | Martens, Philip R | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 21.80 | 7,015 | 152,927 | 584,480 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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