Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $10.29 | Market Cap: $925.5 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $10.29Market Cap: $925.5 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Nutritional Supplements. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.3% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% Key risksSMPL key risks include [1] the substantial performance decline and financial impairment of its Atkins brand and [2] the threat from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs altering consumer demand for nutritional snacks. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Nutritional Supplements. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -107%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -138% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
| Key risksSMPL key risks include [1] the substantial performance decline and financial impairment of its Atkins brand and [2] the threat from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs altering consumer demand for nutritional snacks. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Simply Good Foods (SMPL) stock has lost about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Simply Good Foods continued to revise its fiscal year 2026 outlook downwards, reflecting persistent operational challenges. The company's fiscal Q2 2026 results, reported on April 9, 2026 (for the quarter ended February 28, 2026), revealed net sales declined 9.4% year-over-year to $326 million and led to a cut in the full-year sales forecast to a decline of 7% to 10%. Despite beating adjusted diluted EPS estimates in fiscal Q3 2026 (for the quarter ended May 30, 2026), reported on July 9, 2026, with an EPS of $0.42 versus $0.35 consensus, net sales still decreased 6.3% year-over-year to $357.0 million. The updated fiscal year 2026 guidance with the Q3 report projected net sales to decline between 7% and 6% and adjusted EBITDA to decrease by 21% to 19% year-over-year.
2. Significant product quality and marketing execution issues with the OWYN brand, resulting in a substantial impairment charge, negatively impacted investor confidence. The CEO attributed the underperformance of the OWYN brand to "a product quality issue . . . that impacted taste, texture and consumer acceptance and poor marketing execution" during its expansion. This led to a considerable $249 million impairment charge recorded in fiscal Q2 2026, reflecting the challenging fiscal year and revised future revenue projections.
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Simply Good Foods (SMPL) stock has lost about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Simply Good Foods continued to revise its fiscal year 2026 outlook downwards, reflecting persistent operational challenges. The company's fiscal Q2 2026 results, reported on April 9, 2026 (for the quarter ended February 28, 2026), revealed net sales declined 9.4% year-over-year to $326 million and led to a cut in the full-year sales forecast to a decline of 7% to 10%. Despite beating adjusted diluted EPS estimates in fiscal Q3 2026 (for the quarter ended May 30, 2026), reported on July 9, 2026, with an EPS of $0.42 versus $0.35 consensus, net sales still decreased 6.3% year-over-year to $357.0 million. The updated fiscal year 2026 guidance with the Q3 report projected net sales to decline between 7% and 6% and adjusted EBITDA to decrease by 21% to 19% year-over-year.
2. Significant product quality and marketing execution issues with the OWYN brand, resulting in a substantial impairment charge, negatively impacted investor confidence. The CEO attributed the underperformance of the OWYN brand to "a product quality issue . . . that impacted taste, texture and consumer acceptance and poor marketing execution" during its expansion. This led to a considerable $249 million impairment charge recorded in fiscal Q2 2026, reflecting the challenging fiscal year and revised future revenue projections.
3. Gross margins continued to face pressure from increased input costs and restructuring efforts. In fiscal Q2 2026, gross margin narrowed by 4.6 percentage points to 31.6% due to higher input costs, including cocoa and tariffs. This trend persisted, with the company's updated fiscal year 2026 outlook in July anticipating gross margins to decline approximately 375 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to "slightly higher input costs, especially proteins, and restructuring costs within our supply chain".
4. A securities fraud investigation and subsequent analyst downgrades contributed to negative market sentiment. A securities law firm initiated an investigation into Simply Good Foods for potential securities fraud in June 2026, related to disclosures regarding its protein product distribution expansion, product quality, and execution issues, which followed the 18.11% stock drop on April 9, 2026. This legal scrutiny, coupled with multiple analysts, including Morgan Stanley, DA Davidson, UBS, and Deutsche Bank, slashing price targets in early July, further dampened investor enthusiasm and valuation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.9% change in SMPL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.37 | 10.18 | -23.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,416 | 1,392 | -1.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.7 | -24.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 92 | 90 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -23.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | -0.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.9% | 43.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -45.8% change in SMPL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.77 | 10.18 | -45.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,450 | 1,392 | -4.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 0.7 | -48.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 90 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -45.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -45.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.4% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -66.6% change in SMPL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.46 | 10.18 | -66.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,458 | 1,392 | -4.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 0.7 | -68.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 101 | 90 | 12.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -66.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -66.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.8% | 26.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.7% change in SMPL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.71 | 10.18 | -73.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,196 | 1,392 | 16.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 0.7 | -79.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 90 | 10.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -73.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -73.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 21.0% | 35.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SMPL Return | 33% | -9% | 4% | -2% | -48% | -48% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 10% | 21% | 7% | -15% | -8% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SMPL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 14% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 52% | 45% | 42% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SMPL Max Drawdown | -17% | -34% | -19% | -27% | -53% | -52% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -17% | -20% | -17% | -29% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BRBR, POST, HSY, MDLZ, PEP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SMPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 475 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Simply Good Foods's stock fell -11.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | SMPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 475 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Simply Good Foods's stock fell -11.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is a consumer packaged food and beverage company that develops, markets, and sells a diverse portfolio of snacks and meal replacements. Operating across North America and internationally, the company focuses on providing convenient, health-conscious food options for consumers seeking products aligned with nutritional goals such as high protein or low carbohydrate diets.
Simply Good Foods' extensive product lineup includes popular items like protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, and protein chips. It also offers more complete meal solutions such as pizza and licensed frozen meals. These products are primarily sold under its well-recognized and trusted brands: Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest, which are known for their focus on better-for-you nutrition.
The company reaches its customers through a wide array of distribution channels. This includes traditional retail outlets such as mass merchandise, grocery, drug stores, club stores, convenience stores, and gas stations. Furthermore, Simply Good Foods maintains a robust e-commerce presence, selling its products directly to consumers via its brand websites like atkins.com and questnutrition.com, as well as through major online platforms such as amazon.com.
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Here are a few analogies for Simply Good Foods (SMPL):
- It's like the PepsiCo for protein snacks and meal replacements.
- It's like the General Mills for 'better-for-you' convenience foods.
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- Protein bars: Snack or meal replacement bars designed for high protein content.
- Ready-to-drink shakes: Convenient, pre-mixed beverages offering quick protein and meal replacement options.
- Sweet and salty snacks: A diverse range of snack items catering to various taste preferences.
- Cookies: Baked goods often formulated with specific nutritional profiles.
- Pizza: A savory meal option, likely offered as a frozen meal.
- Protein chips: Crispy snacks fortified with additional protein.
- Confectionery products: Sweet treats and candies.
- Licensed frozen meals: Pre-prepared meals available in the freezer aisle, often under the Atkins brand.
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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) sells its products primarily to other companies, which are retailers and e-commerce platforms, rather than directly to individuals, although it does operate its own e-commerce channels. Its major customers are the large retail chains that distribute its products to end consumers.
Based on the description of its distribution channels, which include mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and e-commerce channels, its major customers likely include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- The Kroger Co. (KR)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Target Corporation (TGT)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)
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Joseph E. Scalzo
President and CEO and Director
Joseph E. Scalzo was reappointed President and CEO of Simply Good Foods in January 2026, having previously held the role until July 2023 and serving as Executive Vice Chairman until August 2024. During his previous decade-long tenure at Simply Good Foods and its predecessor, Atkins Nutritionals, Inc., he oversaw the company's public market debut in 2017 and led the acquisition and integration of Quest Nutrition. Scalzo was a partner at Centerview Capital Consumer from October 2024 until his return to Simply Good Foods. He is recognized as a "key architect" in the company's development.
Chris Bealer
Chief Financial Officer
Chris Bealer was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Simply Good Foods effective July 3, 2025, after joining the company as Senior Vice President of Finance on April 1, 2025. He has nearly 23 years of experience in consumer packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership positions at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. His earlier career included finance roles at Big Heart Pet Brands, Del Monte Foods, and H.J. Heinz Company.
Amy Held
Chief Human Resources Officer
Amy Held serves as the Chief Human Resources Officer at Simply Good Foods.
Timothy Kraft
Chief Legal and Corporate Development Officer
Timothy Kraft holds the position of Chief Legal and Corporate Development Officer at Simply Good Foods.
Mike Clawson
Chief Commercial Officer and General Manager Quest
Mike Clawson is the Chief Commercial Officer and General Manager for the Quest brand at Simply Good Foods.
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Key Risks for Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
- Shifting Consumer Dietary Preferences and Health Trends: Simply Good Foods' core brands, Atkins and Quest, are deeply tied to specific dietary philosophies such as low-carbohydrate and high-protein. A significant change in prevailing consumer health trends or dietary preferences away from these nutritional approaches could reduce demand for their primary product offerings.
- Intense Competition and Retailer Dynamics: The snack and meal replacement markets are highly competitive and fragmented, with numerous established food companies, emerging brands, and increasing prevalence of private-label alternatives from retailers. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressure, increased marketing expenses, and challenges in maintaining or expanding shelf space and market share.
- Supply Chain Volatility and Ingredient Cost Inflation: As a consumer packaged food company, Simply Good Foods is susceptible to fluctuations in the cost and availability of key raw materials, including various protein sources, sweeteners, and packaging. Global supply chain disruptions, commodity price volatility, and inflationary pressures can impact production costs, profitability, and potentially necessitate price adjustments that could affect consumer demand.
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The emergence and rapid adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists (e.g., Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound) represent a clear emerging threat. These medications fundamentally alter appetite and metabolic function, potentially reducing demand for high-protein, low-carbohydrate snacks and meal replacements that are core to Simply Good Foods' brands like Atkins and Quest, which are often utilized for weight management and satiety.
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The addressable markets for Simply Good Foods' main products and services in North America are substantial, reflecting growing consumer interest in health and wellness, convenient nutrition, and specialized dietary options.
- Protein Bars: The North American protein bar market was valued at approximately USD 6.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 12.66 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.10% from 2025 to 2033. Another estimate places the North American protein bar market at USD 7.95 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 12.73 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 9.87%.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Protein Shakes: The global Ready-to-Drink Shakes Market was estimated at USD 12.36 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 17.87 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.65% during this period. North America commands a significant share of this market, accounting for 36.11% in 2024. This implies a North American market size of approximately USD 4.46 billion in 2025.
- Healthy Snacks (including sweet and salty snacks, cookies, protein chips, confectionery products): The North American healthy snacks market generated a revenue of approximately USD 41.73 billion (USD 41,725.5 million) in 2025 and is expected to reach approximately USD 69.36 billion (US$ 69357.0 million) by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.6% from 2026 to 2033. The U.S. healthy snacks market alone is projected to reach USD 37.9 billion in 2024.
- Low-Carb Food Products (Atkins, low-carb pizza, frozen meals): The low-carb diet market in North America accounts for approximately USD 5.3 billion in revenue. The global low-carb food market was valued at USD 16 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 30 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 9.0%. North America accounts for a significant portion of global sales in the low-fat and low-carb foods market, estimated at approximately 40%.
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- Strong Performance and Growth of the Quest Brand: The Quest brand is a significant driver of revenue growth, with analysts projecting double-digit growth. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by ongoing innovation and strong performance, particularly within its salty snacks business.
- Contribution from the OWYN Acquisition: The acquisition of OWYN is expected to continue significantly boosting revenue and profitability. Growth is projected through expanding distribution, increasing household penetration, and enhancing brand awareness, which are currently seen as below those of its peers.
- Innovation and New Product Launches: Simply Good Foods plans to drive growth by introducing new and delicious innovations, particularly within its Quest and OWYN brands. Recent successful launches include the Quest milkshake and new Hero Crispy and Overload bars, which are building distribution and positive consumer feedback.
- Expansion of Distribution and Increased Household Penetration: The company is focused on adding new distribution points ("adding new doors") and driving greater brand awareness and household penetration for its growth brands, Quest and OWYN. Efforts for OWYN specifically aim to broaden its physical availability and consumer reach.
- Leveraging Industry Tailwinds in Health and Wellness: Simply Good Foods is well-positioned to capitalize on several favorable industry trends. These include the robust growth of the healthy snacks market and the increasing mainstream consumer demand for high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb food and beverage options.
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Share Repurchases
- In October 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $150 million for its stock repurchase program, increasing the total allocation to $171 million.
- The company repurchased 5 million shares for $100 million in Q1 fiscal year 2026 (ended November 29, 2025).
- In January 2026, the Board authorized a $200 million increase to the existing share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- No significant public share issuances for capital raising were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In 2019, The Simply Good Foods Company acquired Quest Nutrition for $1 billion.
- In 2024, the company acquired OWYN (Only What You Need) for $280 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 totaled $2.1 million.
- In the last 12 months, capital expenditures amounted to $22.33 million.
- For fiscal year 2026, projected capital expenditures are $13 million, with a primary focus on expanding product offerings and enhancing nutritional value.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| Rev LTM | 10,306 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,528 |
| FCF LTM | 1,372 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,139 |
| CFO LTM | 1,831 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,655 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.3 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.18 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/10/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -66.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.41 | $16.07 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -18.0% | -36.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.5% | 47.6% |
| Downside Capture | 42.16 | 47.15 |
| Upside Capture | -81.04 | -88.02 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.1% | 3.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.49 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| Up Beta | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Down Beta | 2.44 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| Up Capture | -193% | -42% | -69% | -42% | -39% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 30 | 58 | 114 | 362 |
| Down Capture | 192% | 36% | 44% | 81% | 59% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 20 | 33 | 67 | 134 | 383 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SMPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -67.4% | 47.4% | -2.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.9% | 14.2% | 0.31 | 26.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 4.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | -9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -19.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 19.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | -8.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SMPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -22.9% | 34.9% | -0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 13.6% | 0.24 | 40.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 32.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 34.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 10.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SMPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL | -1.5% | 37.1% | 0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.2% | 14.9% | 0.35 | 41.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 39.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 35.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 8.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/9/2026 | 1.3% | -7.5% | |
| 4/9/2026 | -18.1% | -18.7% | -13.7% |
| 1/8/2026 | 6.6% | 8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10/23/2025 | -17.3% | -21.1% | -19.4% |
| 7/10/2025 | -0.1% | 2.3% | -7.2% |
| 4/9/2025 | 9.2% | 13.6% | 8.0% |
| 1/8/2025 | -2.5% | -10.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.3% | 5.2% | 21.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 17.0% | 21.3% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -21.1% | -20.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/9/2026 | 1.3% | -7.5% | |
| 4/9/2026 | -18.1% | -18.7% | -13.7% |
| 1/8/2026 | 6.6% | 8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10/23/2025 | -17.3% | -21.1% | -19.4% |
| 7/10/2025 | -0.1% | 2.3% | -7.2% |
| 4/9/2025 | 9.2% | 13.6% | 8.0% |
| 1/8/2025 | -2.5% | -10.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.3% | 5.2% | 21.3% |
| 10/24/2023 | 6.9% | 13.4% | 20.5% |
| 6/29/2023 | 3.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% |
| 4/5/2023 | -4.8% | -6.4% | -4.4% |
| 1/5/2023 | -8.7% | -6.5% | -5.6% |
| 6/30/2022 | -8.3% | -7.4% | -20.8% |
| 4/6/2022 | 4.7% | 7.8% | -0.2% |
| 1/5/2022 | -8.2% | -7.8% | -16.4% |
| 10/22/2021 | 8.6% | 17.0% | 13.7% |
| 5/14/2021 | 0.7% | 3.0% | 6.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 9.2% | 17.0% | 21.3% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -21.1% | -20.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 07/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/21/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 07/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2025 | 07/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2025 | 04/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 01/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2024 | 04/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 01/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2023 | 04/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 01/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 10/21/2022 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2022 | 04/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 01/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2021 | 07/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 02/28/2021 | 04/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 01/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 05/31/2020 | 07/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 02/29/2020 | 04/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 01/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 10/30/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 7/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Net Sales | 322.00 Mil | 327.00 Mil | 332.00 Mil | -1.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 333.50 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 52.00 Mil | 54.50 Mil | 57.00 Mil | 13.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 48.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Sales | 1.34 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.33 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 220.00 Mil | 222.50 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 221.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 20.00 Mil | 22.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 4/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 329.00 Mil | 333.50 Mil | 338.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 46.00 Mil | 48.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 1.31 Bil | 1.33 Bil | 1.35 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | -10.0% | -8.5% | -7.0% | -8.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin Change | -3.5% | -3.25% | -3.0% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -1.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 217.00 Mil | 221.00 Mil | 225.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | -22.0% | -20.5% | -19.0% | -19.0% | Lowered | Guidance: -1.5% for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 1/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | -2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin Decline | -1.5% | -1.25% | -1.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -1.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | -4.0% | -1.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -1.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 19.00 Mil | 20.00 Mil | 21.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Weighted Average Diluted Share Count | 96.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 25.0% | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | -2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | -9.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 9.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin Change | -1.5% | -1.25% | -1.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | -4.0% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -6.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.5% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/24/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daley, Clayton C JR | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 11.78 | 10,000 | 117,782 | 1,316,131 | Form | |
| 2 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 4242026 | 12.39 | 80,000 | 991,480 | 2,142,266 | Form | |
| 3 | Clawson, Michael L | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 20.00 | 5,000 | 100,000 | 752,400 | Form |
| 4 | Matthews, Timothy Allen | VP, Controller and CAO | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 19.47 | 5,859 | 114,053 | 351,659 | Form |
| 5 | Bealer, Christopher J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 20.01 | 9,946 | 199,019 | 659,650 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daley, Clayton C JR | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 11.78 | 10,000 | 117,782 | 1,316,131 | Form | |
| 2 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 4242026 | 12.39 | 80,000 | 991,480 | 2,142,266 | Form | |
| 3 | Clawson, Michael L | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 20.00 | 5,000 | 100,000 | 752,400 | Form |
| 4 | Matthews, Timothy Allen | VP, Controller and CAO | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 19.47 | 5,859 | 114,053 | 351,659 | Form |
| 5 | Bealer, Christopher J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 20.01 | 9,946 | 199,019 | 659,650 | Form |
| 6 | Tanner, Geoff E | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 7232025 | 33.11 | 6,050 | 200,297 | 3,250,776 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Packaged Foods & Meats Resources |
| USDA Data |
| Food Processing |
| Meat+Poultry |
| Just Food |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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