Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.565 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $37.565Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.21 | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.21 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR) stock has experienced fluctuations, with recent data showing a short-term negative trend. While a precise -6.4% movement within the future period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, cannot be confirmed, several factors typically influence confectionery stock performance that could lead to such a decline. Here are key points that could contribute to a downward movement in Tootsie Roll Industries' stock: 1. Rising Raw Material Costs: The confectionery market, including companies like Tootsie Roll, is highly susceptible to the volatile prices of key raw materials such as cocoa and sugar. Cocoa prices have seen significant increases due to climate change, diseases, and supply chain disruptions. Elevated raw material costs can squeeze profit margins if companies cannot fully pass these increases on to consumers through higher prices. 2. Economic Pressures and Price Sensitivity: Inflationary pressures can impact consumer spending on discretionary items like confectionery. While some consumers might still buy indulgent treats, affordability concerns can push others towards private-label or smaller-pack options, potentially affecting sales volume for established brands.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TR Return | -12% | 27% | 22% | -19% | 1% | 20% | 35% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 7% | 15% | 4% | 16% | -34% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TR Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 46% | 52% | 62% | 56% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TR Max Drawdown | -14% | -0% | -10% | -29% | -13% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -14% | -20% | -15% | -17% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CALM, SMPL, JJSF, THS, BRBF. See TR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1000 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1562 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CALM, SMPL, JJSF, THS, BRBF
In The Past
Tootsie Roll Industries's stock fell -38.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/6/2023. A -38.1% loss requires a 61.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 04302023 | TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -25.5% | -24.2% | -28.0% |
| 04302020 | TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -13.7% | -6.4% | -17.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 04302023 | TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -25.5% | -24.2% | -28.0% |
| 04302020 | TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -13.7% | -6.4% | -17.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tootsie Roll Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,525 |
| Op Inc LTM | 132 |
| FCF LTM | 97 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 83 |
| CFO LTM | 162 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 139 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 26.3 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -39.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -43.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -112.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |