Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Simply Good Foods (SMPL):

• Simply Good Foods is like Clif Bar for keto and low-carb diets.
• Simply Good Foods is like a consumer packaged goods (CPG) version of Weight Watchers, specializing in diet-friendly foods and snacks.
• Simply Good Foods is like PepsiCo's Frito-Lay, but exclusively producing high-protein, low-carb snacks and diet foods.

• Protein Bars: Convenient, high-protein, low-sugar snack bars designed for active lifestyles and weight management.
• Protein Shakes & Powders: Ready-to-drink protein shakes and versatile protein powders for muscle support and meal replacement.
• Nutritious Snacks: A variety of better-for-you snacks including protein chips, cookies, crisps, and plant-based bites, offering healthier alternatives.
• Frozen Meals: Low-carb and keto-friendly frozen meals providing convenient options for specific dietary needs.

The Simply Good Foods Company (symbol: SMPL) primarily sells its products to other companies, specifically various retail channels that then sell to individual consumers. Therefore, it operates on a business-to-business (B2B) model with its direct customers being retailers.

According to its SEC filings (10-K reports), Simply Good Foods has a concentration of sales with a few major retailers. Its most significant identified customer is:

• Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT) - This customer and its affiliates accounted for approximately 25% of Simply Good Foods' net sales in fiscal year 2023.

Simply Good Foods also states that its top three customers collectively accounted for approximately 45% of its net sales in fiscal year 2023. While Walmart Inc. is explicitly named as a primary customer, the other two major customers making up the remaining percentage are not specifically identified by name in its public filings. These typically include other large retailers such as mass merchandisers, club stores, grocery stores, drug stores, and e-commerce platforms.

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1. Declining Atkins Brand Performance: The most significant risk stems from the continued decline in sales and distribution of the Atkins brand. In fiscal year 2025, the Atkins brand was a substantial drag on the company's financial health, necessitating a $60.9 million non-cash impairment charge due to its performance and updated revenue projections. Retail takeaway for Atkins was down significantly, and the company anticipates further declines, partly due to reduced trade investments and distribution losses at key retailers. While other brands like Quest and OWYN are driving growth, the underperformance of Atkins remains a major portfolio management challenge for Simply Good Foods.
2. Changing Consumer Preferences and Intense Competition, including GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs: Simply Good Foods operates in a highly competitive nutritional snacking industry where consumer preferences can shift rapidly. A significant emerging risk is the increasing popularity and use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. If the company cannot effectively communicate how its products support weight management goals in light of these medications, or if these drugs broadly impact the nutritional snacking category, it could materially and adversely affect the business. The company also faces fierce competition from larger players with greater resources and more widely recognized brands.
3. Commodity Cost Volatility and Supply Chain Challenges: The company is exposed to risks related to fluctuating commodity costs and potential disruptions in its supply chain. Rising costs for essential ingredients such as whey, cocoa, and plant-based oils can squeeze gross margins. Furthermore, climate change poses financial risks, including potential negative impacts on agricultural productivity, which could lead to decreased availability or increased costs of these key commodities. Such factors could affect the company's supply chain, production schedules, and overall financial results.

The widespread and accelerating adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs (e.g., Ozempic, Wegovy) for weight management and diabetes treatment represents a clear emerging threat. These medications significantly reduce appetite and increase satiety, potentially diminishing the consumer demand for diet-specific packaged foods and snacks that Simply Good Foods' brands (Atkins, Quest) cater to, as individuals may experience less hunger and fewer cravings, leading to a reduced need for traditional dietary interventions and products.

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) operates in the convenient nutrition and healthy snacking markets, primarily offering protein bars, ready-to-drink (RTD) shakes, and other better-for-you snacks and meal replacements under its Atkins, Quest, and OWYN brands.

Addressable Markets for Simply Good Foods' Main Products:

• Protein Bars:
  • Global: The global protein bar market was valued at approximately USD 15.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to around USD 23.88 billion by 2034. Other estimates place the global market at USD 15.97 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 24.25 billion by 2032.
  • U.S.: The U.S. protein bar market size is estimated at USD 4.17 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 6.65 billion by 2034. Another report indicates the U.S. protein bar market size at USD 4.03 billion in 2024.
• Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Protein Shakes/Beverages:
  • Global: The global ready-to-drink protein beverages market was approximately USD 1.96 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 2.85 billion by 2030. Other analyses estimate the market at USD 1.7 billion in 2024, growing to USD 3.4 billion by 2034.
  • North America: North America held a significant share of the RTD protein market, with a 38.76% revenue share in 2024. The North American RTD protein market was valued at USD 0.8 billion in 2024, representing 48.10% of the global market.
• Healthy Snacks (includes bars, sweet and salty snacks):
  • Global: The global healthy snacks market was valued at approximately USD 97.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 188.03 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global market at USD 101.3 billion in 2024.
  • U.S.: The U.S. healthy snacks market was valued at approximately USD 31.90 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.61 billion by 2033. Other reports indicate the U.S. healthy snacks market size at USD 35.6 billion in 2024.
• Weight Management (relevant for Atkins brand):
  • U.S.: The U.S. weight management market size reached USD 82.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 130.0 billion by 2033. Another report estimates the total U.S. weight loss market value at USD 90 billion in 2023.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

1. Continued Growth of the Quest Brand, particularly Salty Snacks: The Quest brand, especially its salty snacks portfolio, is consistently highlighted as a robust organic growth driver. Quest's retail takeaway, particularly in salty snacks, has shown strong increases, with consumption up 31% for the quarter and 34% for the full year in fiscal 2025. The company anticipates that salty snacks will become Quest's largest platform by the end of fiscal year 2026, indicating significant ongoing potential in this segment.

2. Leveraging the OWYN Acquisition: The acquisition of Only What You Need (OWYN), a plant-based protein shake brand, is a crucial driver of net sales growth. OWYN significantly contributed to net sales growth in fiscal year 2024 and 2025, and Simply Good Foods expects OWYN's net sales to be in the range of $135-145 million for fiscal year 2025. The company plans to double OWYN's sales within four years through distribution expansion and by appealing to a broader mainstream consumer base. OWYN's retail takeaway increased 24% in Q3 2025, with distribution expanding 18% due to recent gains.

3. Strategic Revitalization and Repositioning of the Atkins Brand: Although the Atkins brand has faced declines in recent periods, Simply Good Foods is actively implementing a revitalization plan to reshape it for future profitability. This involves working with retailers to manage product assortment and focusing on making Atkins a more profitable, sustainable business, potentially acting as a "cash cow" to support the growth of other brands. Initiatives include a packaging refresh and a new leadership team dedicated to executing this plan.

4. Disruptive Innovation and New Product Development: Simply Good Foods' growth framework is underpinned by "disruptive innovation" and a "rich pipeline of innovation," particularly within the Quest brand. This strategy includes launching new products like the Quest Overload bar platform, which contributed to Quest bar growth. This continuous focus on innovation across its portfolio is expected to capture evolving consumer demands within the nutritional snacking category, which continues to see double-digit growth driven by demand for high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb options.

5. Expansion of Distribution and Market Penetration: The company aims to expand its "physical availability" and gain shelf and merchandising space for its growth brands, Quest and OWYN. This includes driving distribution of existing OWYN products and increasing household penetration of its brands. The consistent expansion of distribution for both Quest and OWYN products across various channels is a key factor in increasing their market reach and, consequently, revenue.

Share Repurchases

• The Board of Directors approved an additional $150 million to its existing stock repurchase program on October 21, 2025, bringing the total funds allocated for stock repurchasing to $171 million as of October 23, 2025.
• For the full fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased approximately $50.9 million of its stock.
• On April 13, 2022, the company's Board of Directors approved adding $50 million to its existing stock repurchase program, making approximately $76.2 million available under the authorization at that time.

Share Issuance

• On January 10, 2022, Conyers Park Acquisition Corp. exercised 6.7 million private placement warrants on a cashless basis, resulting in the net receipt of 4,830,761 shares of Simply Good Foods common stock and an increase in outstanding shares to 100,963,850.

Outbound Investments

• In June 2024, Simply Good Foods acquired Only What You Need, Inc. (OWYN), a plant-based protein food company, for a cash purchase price of approximately $280.0 million.
• The company actively seeks to identify and evaluate new acquisition opportunities to expand its existing portfolio in complementary snacking categories such as sports/active and adult nutritional snacks, salty snacks, and protein snacks, as well as in the "better-for-you" eating space.

Capital Expenditures

• Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were about $20.5 million, primarily supporting strategic investments to drive growth.
• Historical capital expenditures were $17 million in fiscal year 2021, $12 million in fiscal year 2022, $16 million in fiscal year 2023, and $18 million in fiscal year 2024.
• For fiscal year 2026, projected capital expenditures are $13 million.