Constellation Brands (STZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.03 | Market Cap: $24.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.03Market Cap: $24.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Distillers & Vintners
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
STZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Constellation Brands (STZ) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This downward movement, reflecting broader challenges faced by the company throughout 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Disappointing Financial Results and Lowered Future Outlook: Constellation Brands reported mixed financial results for its second quarter ending August 31, 2025, with the beer segment's growth slowing and the wine and spirits segment continuing to underperform. The company subsequently revised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2026, expecting organic sales to decline by 4% to 6% and comparable earnings per share to drop by 16% to 18%, a significant reduction from earlier projections. This downward revision was largely due to anticipated lower volumes and increased tariffs affecting beer sales, alongside ongoing difficulties in the wine and spirits categories.
2. Shifting Consumer Behavior: A significant factor contributing to the stock's struggles is the observable shift in consumer habits, particularly among younger demographics like Millennials and Gen Z. These consumers are reportedly drinking less beer, influenced by growing health, wellness, and mindfulness trends, as well as economic pressures and evolving social drinking preferences. This change in demand directly impacts Constellation Brands, as its beer business accounts for the majority of its revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STZ Return | 17% | 16% | -6% | 6% | -7% | -36% | -20% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -9% | -18% | 7% | -16% | -0% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STZ Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 40% | 38% | 45% | 40% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STZ Max Drawdown | -44% | -4% | -15% | -10% | -8% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -17% | -25% | -9% | -22% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TAP, SAM, HLF, AGCC, STZ. See STZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 763 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1339 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TAP, SAM, HLF, AGCC, STZ
In The Past
Constellation Brands's stock fell -20.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -20.1% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to STZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -23.0% |
| 01312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.5% | -21.8% | -27.6% |
| 04302020 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 48.3% | -5.2% |
| 12312018 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 19.8% | -6.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -16.8% | -16.8% | -23.0% |
| 01312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.5% | -21.8% | -27.6% |
| 04302020 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 48.3% | -5.2% |
| 12312018 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.9% | 19.8% | -6.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Constellation Brands
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beer | 8,163 | 7,465 | 6,752 | 6,075 | 5,616 |
| Wine and Spirits | 1,799 | 1,988 | 2,069 | 2,540 | 2,728 |
| Corporate Operations and Other | 0 | ||||
| Canopy | 444 | 379 | 290 | ||
| Consolidation and Eliminations | -444 | -379 | -290 | ||
| Total | 9,962 | 9,453 | 8,821 | 8,615 | 8,344 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beer | 3,094 | 2,862 | 2,703 | 2,494 | 2,248 |
| Wine and Spirits | 399 | 453 | 471 | 622 | 708 |
| Comparable Adjustments | -76 | -194 | -604 | -97 | -578 |
| Corporate Operations and Other | -248 | -278 | -238 | -229 | -224 |
| Canopy | -630 | -1,496 | -686 | ||
| Consolidation and Eliminations | 630 | 1,496 | 686 | ||
| Total | 3,170 | 2,843 | 2,332 | 2,791 | 2,154 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10072025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7022025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4232025 | 10-K 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1102025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10032024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7032024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4232024 | 10-K 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1052024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10052023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6302023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4202023 | 10-K 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1052023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10062022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6302022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4212022 | 10-K 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |