Tearsheet

Constellation Brands (STZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.03 | Market Cap: $24.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners

Constellation Brands (STZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.03
Market Cap: $24.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Distillers & Vintners

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

STZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Constellation Brands (STZ) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This downward movement, reflecting broader challenges faced by the company throughout 2025, can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Disappointing Financial Results and Lowered Future Outlook: Constellation Brands reported mixed financial results for its second quarter ending August 31, 2025, with the beer segment's growth slowing and the wine and spirits segment continuing to underperform. The company subsequently revised its full-year guidance for fiscal 2026, expecting organic sales to decline by 4% to 6% and comparable earnings per share to drop by 16% to 18%, a significant reduction from earlier projections. This downward revision was largely due to anticipated lower volumes and increased tariffs affecting beer sales, alongside ongoing difficulties in the wine and spirits categories.

2. Shifting Consumer Behavior: A significant factor contributing to the stock's struggles is the observable shift in consumer habits, particularly among younger demographics like Millennials and Gen Z. These consumers are reportedly drinking less beer, influenced by growing health, wellness, and mindfulness trends, as well as economic pressures and evolving social drinking preferences. This change in demand directly impacts Constellation Brands, as its beer business accounts for the majority of its revenue.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
STZ Return17%16%-6%6%-7%-36%-20%
Peers Return33%-9%-18%7%-16%-0%-11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
STZ Win Rate67%58%58%58%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate47%40%38%45%40%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
STZ Max Drawdown-44%-4%-15%-10%-8%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-17%-25%-9%-22%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TAP, SAM, HLF, AGCC, STZ. See STZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSTZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven195 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-49.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven97.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven255 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven763 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1339 days1480 days

Compare to TAP, SAM, HLF, AGCC, STZ


In The Past

Constellation Brands's stock fell -20.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -20.1% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Constellation Brands (STZ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to STZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-16.8%-16.8%-23.0%
STZ_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-21.8%-27.6%
STZ_4302020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302020STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%48.3%-5.2%
STZ_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%19.8%-6.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
STZ_7312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper07312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-16.8%-16.8%-23.0%
STZ_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-21.8%-27.6%
STZ_4302020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302020STZConstellation BrandsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%48.3%-5.2%
STZ_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018STZConstellation BrandsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%19.8%-6.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Constellation Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

STZTAPSAMHLFAGCCMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.HerbalifeAgencia . 
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Growth & Margins

STZTAPSAMHLFAGCCMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.HerbalifeAgencia . 
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Valuation

STZTAPSAMHLFAGCCMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.HerbalifeAgencia . 
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Returns

STZTAPSAMHLFAGCCMedian
NameConstell.Molson C.Boston B.HerbalifeAgencia . 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Beer8,1637,4656,7526,0755,616
Wine and Spirits1,7991,9882,0692,5402,728
Corporate Operations and Other0    
Canopy  444379290
Consolidation and Eliminations  -444-379-290
Total9,9629,4538,8218,6158,344


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Beer3,0942,8622,7032,4942,248
Wine and Spirits399453471622708
Comparable Adjustments-76-194-604-97-578
Corporate Operations and Other-248-278-238-229-224
Canopy  -630-1,496-686
Consolidation and Eliminations  6301,496686
Total3,1702,8432,3322,7912,154


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,944,379
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.9%
Average Daily Volume2,316,334
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.29
Basic Shares Quantity175,821,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251007202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025702202510-Q 5/31/2025
2282025423202510-K 2/28/2025
11302024110202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241003202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024703202410-Q 5/31/2024
2292024423202410-K 2/29/2024
11302023105202410-Q 11/30/2023
83120231005202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023630202310-Q 5/31/2023
2282023420202310-K 2/28/2023
11302022105202310-Q 11/30/2022
83120221006202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022630202210-Q 5/31/2022
2282022421202210-K 2/28/2022
11302021106202210-Q 11/30/2021