Kroger (KR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $63.81 | Market Cap: $41.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Kroger (KR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $63.81Market Cap: $41.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.0% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | Key risksKR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
| Key risksKR key risks include [1] significant uncertainty and regulatory hurdles surrounding its proposed merger with Albertsons. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
KR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Kroger Co. (KR) experienced an approximate -5.94% stock movement from August 2025 to December 17, 2025. This decline was primarily influenced by the company's third-quarter 2025 earnings report and associated market reactions in early December. Key factors contributing to this movement include:
1. Significant Operating Loss Due to Impairment Charges. Kroger reported an operating loss of $(1,541) million and an earnings per share (EPS) of $(2.02) for Q3 2025. This loss largely stemmed from $2.6 billion in impairment and related charges ($3.00 loss per share) tied to its automated fulfillment network.
2. Squeezed Net Profit Margins. The company's trailing net profit margins declined to 0.5% over the last 12 months, a notable decrease from 1.8% a year earlier. This included a one-off loss of $3.3 billion, indicating persistent pressure on profitability despite efforts towards efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| KR Return | 12% | 45% | 0% | 5% | 37% | 4% | 143% |
| Peers Return | � | 43% | -14% | 12% | 12% | 14% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| KR Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 47% | 60% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| KR Max Drawdown | -7% | -1% | -6% | -3% | -2% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -8% | -23% | -14% | -16% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, COST, TGT, ACI, CVS. See KR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | KR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 787 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,031 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,466 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TGT, DG
In The Past
Kroger's stock fell -31.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -31.7% loss requires a 46.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to KR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kroger
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 71.5 |
| Rev LTM | 211,230 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,794 |
| FCF LTM | 4,651 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,080 |
| CFO LTM | 7,942 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,462 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 71.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.0 |
| P/E | 43.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | -4.6% | -7.5% | |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 6/20/2025 | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | -5.0% | 4.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.6% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12122025 | 10-Q 11/8/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9192025 | 10-Q 8/16/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6272025 | 10-Q 5/24/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4012025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12132024 | 10-Q 11/9/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9202024 | 10-Q 8/17/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6282024 | 10-Q 5/25/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4022024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12082023 | 10-Q 11/4/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9152023 | 10-Q 8/12/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6232023 | 10-Q 5/20/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12092022 | 10-Q 11/5/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9162022 | 10-Q 8/13/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6242022 | 10-Q 5/21/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |