Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

KR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Kroger reported a significant operating loss of $1.54 billion and a net loss of $2.02 per share for the third fiscal quarter of 2025. This was largely driven by $2.6 billion in impairment and related charges, equivalent to a $3.00 per-share impact, associated with its automated fulfillment network which did not meet financial expectations.

2. The company missed quarterly sales estimates and lowered its full-year sales forecast. Total company sales of $33.9 billion slightly increased but fell short of consensus estimates, and identical sales without fuel rose 2.6%, below analysts' expectations. Kroger also narrowed its full-year comparable sales guidance, indicating increased competition and a challenging consumer spending environment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
KR Return12%45%0%5%37%5%147%
Peers Return42%20%-19%19%23%14%130%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KR Win Rate67%75%42%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%60%45%62%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KR Max Drawdown-7%-1%-6%-3%-2%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-11%-31%-18%-13%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, TGT, DG. See KR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventKRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven787 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-18.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven111 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1031 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-38.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1466 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, TGT, DG


In The Past

Kroger's stock fell -31.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -31.7% loss requires a 46.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Kroger (KR)

Better Bets than Kroger (KR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to KR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Kroger

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KRAMZNWMTCOSTTGTDGMedian
NameKroger Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.Target Dollar G. 
Mkt Price63.14229.11114.84895.8691.59125.29120.06
Mkt Cap41.82,437.0916.2397.841.627.6219.8
Rev LTM147,000670,038693,153275,235105,64041,652211,118
Op Inc LTM3,92576,19028,98810,3835,4241,7907,904
FCF LTM2,21213,48113,7537,8372,9441,8505,390
FCF 3Y Avg2,26821,67714,9867,0703,2821,2115,176
CFO LTM6,018121,13738,43813,3356,3863,1589,860
CFO 3Y Avg6,11496,97736,70711,9147,4702,7469,692

Growth & Margins

KRAMZNWMTCOSTTGTDGMedian
NameKroger Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.Target Dollar G. 
Rev Chg LTM-2.1%10.9%4.2%8.2%-1.5%5.0%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.7%11.3%5.7%6.6%-0.7%5.7%5.7%
Rev Chg Q0.1%13.3%4.8%8.1%-0.9%5.1%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%3.0%1.2%2.4%-0.2%1.3%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM2.7%11.4%4.2%3.8%5.1%4.3%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.4%7.9%4.0%3.6%5.1%5.9%4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.3%-0.1%0.0%-0.3%0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.1%18.1%5.5%4.8%6.0%7.6%5.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%15.8%5.5%4.6%7.0%6.8%6.2%
FCF/Rev LTM1.5%2.0%2.0%2.8%2.8%4.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.5%3.5%2.3%2.7%3.1%3.0%2.9%

Valuation

KRAMZNWMTCOSTTGTDGMedian
NameKroger Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.Target Dollar G. 
Mkt Cap41.82,437.0916.2397.841.627.6219.8
P/S0.33.51.11.50.40.60.9
P/EBIT11.927.425.137.58.114.119.6
P/E17.433.136.550.711.421.127.1
P/CFO7.919.320.330.87.08.013.6
Total Yield7.6%3.0%3.6%2.2%13.3%5.8%4.7%
Dividend Yield1.9%0.0%0.9%0.3%4.6%1.0%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.0%1.1%2.8%2.1%5.6%4.5%3.7%
D/E0.50.10.10.00.40.70.3
Net D/E0.40.00.1-0.00.30.60.2

Returns

KRAMZNWMTCOSTTGTDGMedian
NameKroger Amazon.c.Walmart Costco W.Target Dollar G. 
1M Rtn-0.4%-8.1%12.3%-4.8%3.1%25.6%1.3%
3M Rtn-6.4%-2.8%13.8%-6.1%0.0%16.2%-1.4%
6M Rtn-3.7%10.2%17.5%-11.1%0.2%11.3%5.2%
12M Rtn7.5%5.0%22.8%-9.1%-26.5%61.6%6.3%
3Y Rtn46.5%151.7%136.0%91.0%-34.4%-46.0%68.8%
1M Excs Rtn-1.7%-9.4%11.0%-6.0%1.8%24.3%0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-12.1%-7.2%8.5%-12.7%-6.3%9.5%-6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-19.1%-5.3%2.1%-26.6%-15.2%-4.2%-10.2%
12M Excs Rtn-6.3%-4.7%11.8%-21.0%-40.2%51.8%-5.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.5%74.6%60.7%3.2%-112.2%-120.7%-16.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail operations segment sales145,701143,751133,751128,523118,617
Other sales4,3384,507   
Total150,039148,258133,751128,523118,617


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28,794,945
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.2%
Average Daily Volume5,874,289
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.90
Basic Shares Quantity662,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025919202510-Q 8/16/2025
4302025627202510-Q 5/24/2025
1312025401202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241213202410-Q 11/9/2024
7312024920202410-Q 8/17/2024
4302024628202410-Q 5/25/2024
1312024402202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231208202310-Q 11/4/2023
7312023915202310-Q 8/12/2023
4302023623202310-Q 5/20/2023
1312023328202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221209202210-Q 11/5/2022
7312022916202210-Q 8/13/2022
4302022624202210-Q 5/21/2022
1312022329202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211210202110-Q 11/6/2021