Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $67.0 | Market Cap: $32.4 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Market Price (4/19/2026): $67.0Market Cap: $32.4 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Agricultural Products & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% Key risksADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Key risksADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) stock has gained about 15% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Optimistic 2026 Outlook Driven by Biofuel Policy Clarity and Crush Margin Recovery.
ADM projected an adjusted EPS for 2026 ranging from approximately $3.60 to $4.25, a significant increase from the $3.43 adjusted EPS reported for 2025. This positive outlook is largely contingent on the progressing clarity of U.S. biofuel policy, which is expected to normalize and potentially expand crush margins that were significantly depressed in 2025, leading to an 81% collapse in the crushing subsegment's operating profit. Notably, Barclays raised ADM's price target from $68 to $77 on April 1, 2026, directly attributing the increase to anticipated tightening in the oilseed market following the EPA's finalization of the Set 2 Rule.
2. Proactive Cost Savings and Sustained Shareholder Returns.
Archer-Daniels-Midland is undertaking a multi-year cost savings initiative, aiming to achieve aggregate savings between $500 million and $750 million over the next three to five years, with implementation starting in 2025. Concurrently, the company demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by increasing its quarterly dividend, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth.
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1. Optimistic 2026 Outlook Driven by Biofuel Policy Clarity and Crush Margin Recovery.
ADM projected an adjusted EPS for 2026 ranging from approximately $3.60 to $4.25, a significant increase from the $3.43 adjusted EPS reported for 2025. This positive outlook is largely contingent on the progressing clarity of U.S. biofuel policy, which is expected to normalize and potentially expand crush margins that were significantly depressed in 2025, leading to an 81% collapse in the crushing subsegment's operating profit. Notably, Barclays raised ADM's price target from $68 to $77 on April 1, 2026, directly attributing the increase to anticipated tightening in the oilseed market following the EPA's finalization of the Set 2 Rule.
2. Proactive Cost Savings and Sustained Shareholder Returns.
Archer-Daniels-Midland is undertaking a multi-year cost savings initiative, aiming to achieve aggregate savings between $500 million and $750 million over the next three to five years, with implementation starting in 2025. Concurrently, the company demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by increasing its quarterly dividend, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.4% change in ADM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.06 | 67.00 | 17.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,211 | 80,269 | -3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 1.3% | -6.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.2 | 30.1 | 29.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 484 | 484 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADM | 17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 17.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.2% | 31.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.0% change in ADM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.80 | 67.00 | 14.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,776 | 80,269 | -3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 30.1 | 16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 484 | 484 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADM | 14.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 5.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.1% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.5% change in ADM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 143.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.37 | 67.00 | 44.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85,530 | 80,269 | -6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.1% | 1.3% | -36.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.4 | 30.1 | 143.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 480 | 484 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADM | 44.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.2% | 41.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.2% change in ADM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.18 | 67.00 | -7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 101,556 | 80,269 | -21.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 1.3% | -68.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 30.1 | 227.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 553 | 484 | 14.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADM | -7.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 19.1% | 35.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADM Return | 37% | 40% | -20% | -28% | 18% | 20% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 1% | -6% | 1% | 6% | 29% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 87% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 25% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 57% | 50% | 48% | 45% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADM Max Drawdown | -2% | 0% | -24% | -29% | -16% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -16% | -21% | -14% | -12% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BG, INGR, DAR, TSN, CTVA. See ADM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 215.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,112 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BG, INGR, DAR, TSN, CTVA
In The Past
Archer-Daniels-Midland's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM):- The ExxonMobil of global agriculture.
- The Intel Inside for much of the world's food and animal feed.
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- Agricultural Commodity Services: ADM procures, stores, transports, processes, and merchandises major agricultural raw materials like oilseeds, corn, and wheat globally.
- Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals: The company produces and distributes a variety of vegetable oils for food and industrial use, alongside protein meals for animal feed.
- Sweeteners and Starches: ADM offers a range of corn and wheat-based products including various sweeteners, syrups, starches, and dextrose.
- Biofuels and Industrial Products: It produces ethyl alcohol and ethanol, as well as partially refined oils used in biodiesel and glycols for industrial applications.
- Specialty Food and Feed Ingredients: This segment provides natural flavors, colors, proteins, emulsifiers, fibers, and health and nutrition products like probiotics and botanical extracts for diverse customer needs.
- Animal Nutrition Products: ADM supplies formula feeds, animal health and nutrition products, and also engages in contract and private label pet food manufacturing.
- Financial Services: The company provides commodity brokerage services and structured trade finance activities to support agricultural commerce.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) sells primarily to other businesses rather than directly to individual consumers. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Food and Beverage Manufacturers: These customers utilize ADM's extensive range of ingredients, including vegetable oils, protein meals, sweeteners (corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, dextrose), flour, natural flavors, colors, proteins, emulsifiers, and other specialty food ingredients for their products such as salad oils, margarine, shortening, baked goods, and beverages.
- Animal Nutrition and Pet Food Manufacturers: This category includes companies that produce formula feeds, animal health and nutrition products. They purchase protein meals, corn gluten feed and meal, distillers' grains, and other animal feed ingredients. ADM also provides contract and private label pet treats and foods to these businesses.
- Industrial and Energy Sector Companies: These customers use ADM's products for various industrial applications. This includes partially refined oils for biodiesel production, glycols for use in chemicals and paints, ethyl alcohol and ethanol, and citric acids for industrial processes.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has a seasoned management team. Juan R. Luciano, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive OfficerJuan R. Luciano joined ADM in 2011 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, was named President in February 2014, and became Chief Executive Officer in January 2015. He assumed the role of Chairman of the Board in January 2016. Before joining ADM, Mr. Luciano had a 25-year career at The Dow Chemical Company, where he last served as Executive Vice President and President of the Performance division. Under his leadership, ADM has evolved its focus towards nutrition products, expanding its global presence and adopting innovative technologies. He also oversaw the sale of ADM's global cocoa business in 2015.
Monish Patolawala, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Monish Patolawala is ADM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, responsible for Global Finance and Accounting, Global Business Services, Global Technology, and Enterprise Strategy functions. Prior to ADM, he served as President and CFO of 3M Company, where he oversaw finance, information technology, enterprise strategy, and global service centers. Before his tenure at 3M, Mr. Patolawala spent over two decades at GE in various finance capacities, including CFO of GE Healthcare and head of operational transformation for all of GE.
Greg A. Morris, Senior Vice President and President, Agricultural Services and Oilseeds
Greg A. Morris joined ADM in 1995 and has held numerous senior-level merchandising and management positions across the company's business units. Before his current role, he was president of ADM's Oilseeds business. He also played a key role in the launch of what was then known as the company's WILD Flavors and Specialty Ingredients business unit. Mr. Morris is responsible for ADM's agricultural origination, global trading, transportation, and oilseeds processing businesses, and provides strategic oversight for the company's operations in South America.
Christopher M. Cuddy, Senior Vice President and President, Carbohydrate Solutions
Christopher M. Cuddy serves as Senior Vice President and President of Carbohydrate Solutions.
Ismael Roig, President, EMEA and President, Animal Nutrition
Ismael Roig joined ADM in 2004, having previously spent 11 years in various finance positions at General Motors. He briefly served as interim CFO following an administrative leave of the prior CFO. He is currently the President for Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and President of Animal Nutrition.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) faces several key risks inherent to its global agricultural commodity processing and trading business:
- Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: ADM's core profitability is highly susceptible to fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. These price swings can be driven by factors such as weather patterns affecting crop yields, global demand shifts, and energy costs. Furthermore, its extensive global supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions caused by geopolitical events, trade route blockages, and broader economic factors like inflation, which can impact its ability to procure, transport, and process raw materials efficiently.
- Regulatory, Policy, and Compliance Risks: As a multinational agribusiness, ADM operates within a complex web of regulations. The company has a history of legal and regulatory challenges, including past convictions for price fixing, violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and environmental fines. More recently, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged ADM and former executives with accounting and disclosure fraud related to its Nutrition segment, leading to earnings restatements and significant financial penalties. Additionally, policy changes, such as delays in biofuel policies, can directly impact ADM's earnings guidance and demand for its products. There are also emerging risks related to environmental stewardship, such as a lack of disclosure on pesticide use in its supply chains, and potential shifts in consumer preferences away from "ultraprocessed food" that could lead to new regulatory pressures or lawsuits.
- Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risks: ADM's significant international footprint makes it highly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and shifts in trade policy. Trade wars, tariffs, and retaliatory measures, such as the threat of U.S.-EU tariffs, can severely restrict market access for agricultural exports, disrupt global trade flows, and negatively impact crop prices and ADM's margins. Geopolitical conflicts, like the war in the Middle East, can also directly lead to disruptions in global trade, altered grain flows, and increased commodity prices, affecting ADM's operations and profitability.
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The clear emerging threat for Archer-Daniels-Midland stems from advancements in **cellular agriculture and precision fermentation technologies**. These innovations enable the production of proteins, fats, flavors, and other food and feed ingredients directly from cell cultures or microbial fermentation, bypassing traditional large-scale agricultural commodity cultivation and processing. If these methods achieve significant scale and cost-competitiveness, they could reduce global demand for traditionally farmed and processed agricultural commodities (such as oilseeds, corn, and wheat) that form the core of ADM's Ag Services and Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments, potentially rendering parts of the conventional supply chain less necessary.
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Addressable Market Sizes for Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) operates across a broad spectrum of agricultural and nutrition markets. The estimated global addressable market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:
- Agricultural Commodities: The global agricultural commodity market was valued at approximately USD 5,597.70 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 8,034.03 billion by 2029. Other estimates place the global agricultural commodity market at USD 1.76 trillion in 2023, expected to grow to USD 2.2 trillion by 2032. In 2025, the market reached US$ 6,168.58 billion and is expected to reach US$ 11,201.04 billion by 2033.
- Sweeteners: The global sweeteners market size was estimated at USD 109.16 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 155.48 billion by 2034. Another report indicates a market size of USD 109.18 billion in 2024, projected to grow to nearly USD 156.26 billion by 2034. Other figures suggest the global sweeteners market was valued at USD 89.95 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 126.15 billion by 2033.
- Industrial Starch: The global industrial starch market size was estimated at USD 124,593.0 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 197,422.7 million by 2030. Another estimate places the global industrial starch market at USD 134.87 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately USD 296.61 billion by 2035. Separately, the global food starch market size reached USD 27.1 billion in 2024.
- Ethanol: The global ethanol market size was approximately USD 109.11 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 182.88 billion by 2034. Other sources estimate the global ethanol market size at USD 97.52 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 141.05 billion by 2033. Another report states the market size as USD 114.98 billion in 2025, projected to reach around USD 199.40 billion by 2035.
- Flavors (Natural Flavors, Flavor Systems): The global flavors market size was valued at USD 17.22 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 27.65 billion by 2032. Other reports indicate the global flavors market size was estimated at USD 21.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.03 billion by 2033. The global food flavors market size reached USD 18.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 24.4 billion by 2034.
- Probiotics: The global probiotics market size was estimated at USD 113.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 301.17 billion by 2033. Other estimates include a market size of USD 71.9 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 124.0 billion by 2034. Another source suggests the market was valued at USD 114.31 billion in 2025, projected to reach around USD 429.01 billion by 2035.
- Prebiotics: The global prebiotics market size was valued at USD 11.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 38.41 billion by 2034. Other data indicates the global prebiotics market size was estimated at USD 11.10 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 32.91 billion by 2033.
- Botanical Extracts: The global botanical extracts market size was valued at USD 7.49 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 12.97 billion by 2032. Another report states the global botanical extracts market was estimated at USD 30 billion in 2024, growing to USD 64.6 billion by 2034. Other sources estimate the market size as USD 7.69 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately USD 20.26 billion by 2035.
- Animal Feed: The global animal feed market size was estimated at USD 656.11 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 921.33 billion by 2033. Other estimates suggest the market was USD 548.1 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 699.0 billion by 2034. Another report indicates the global animal feed market size was valued at USD 196.92 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 328.36 billion by 2032.
- Pet Food: The global pet food market size was valued at USD 136.6 billion in 2025, and is estimated to reach USD 197.5 billion by 2034. Other figures show the global pet food market was valued at USD 128.21 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 185.54 billion by 2030. Another source states the global pet food market was valued at USD 128.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 226.5 billion by 2034.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in the Nutrition Segment: ADM anticipates robust growth from its Nutrition segment, which includes flavors, specialty ingredients, health and wellness products, and animal nutrition. This segment is considered less cyclical than the core Ag Services and Oilseeds business and has shown strong performance. The company is actively expanding its capabilities in areas like alternative proteins and biosolutions, driven by strong demand for natural colors, flavors, and functional ingredients.
- Expansion and Stability in the Biofuel Sector: The biofuel sector, particularly the demand for renewable diesel and ethanol, is identified as a significant tailwind for ADM's revenue. Anticipated clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is expected to boost the biofuel industry's stability and drive demand for ADM's products. Improved ethanol margins are also projected to contribute positively.
- Increased US Soy Crush Capacity and Normalization of Crush Margins: ADM expects revenue growth from an increase in US soy crush capacity. The normalization of crush margins, which have been under pressure due to biofuel policy uncertainties, is projected to be a key driver for earnings recovery and will positively influence the Ag Services & Oilseeds segment.
- Strategic Investments in Higher-Value Products and Sustainability-Driven Initiatives: ADM is focusing on investments in innovation, higher-value product offerings, and sustainability initiatives across its portfolio. This strategic shift aims to move a greater portion of the company's business towards specialized areas that offer more stable earnings and better margin potential, encompassing areas like health and wellness ingredients, and other biosolutions.
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has made several capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years, focusing on returning value to shareholders, strategic investments, and optimizing operational efficiency.
Share Repurchases
- ADM reported annual share repurchases of $2.673 billion in 2023 and $2.327 billion in 2024.
- In December 2024, ADM extended its share repurchase program through December 31, 2029, and authorized the repurchase of an additional 100 million shares, bringing the total authorized to 300 million shares.
- As of December 2024, approximately 114.8 million shares remained available for future repurchases under the program. However, no share repurchases were made in 2025.
Share Issuance
- Archer-Daniels-Midland's shares outstanding declined from 0.542 billion in 2023 to 0.493 billion in 2024, a 9.04% decrease. This trend continued with a 1.83% decline to 0.484 billion shares outstanding in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, ADM allocated approximately $1 billion to mergers and acquisitions.
- In 2025, ADM acquired Vandamme Hungaria Kft, a non-genetically modified crush and extraction facility in Hungary.
- Also in 2025, the company launched a joint venture, Plainsman Company, aimed at enhancing cottonseed processing capabilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Archer-Daniels-Midland's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $1.237 billion. Capital expenditures were $1.509 billion in 2024 and $1.062 billion in 2025.
- The company projects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to range between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes enhancing operational capabilities, supporting asset reliability, driving cost efficiencies, and investing in plant digitization, operating leverage, decarbonization solutions, and the evolution of the biofuels and energy sector. Investments are also directed towards enhanced nutrition, biotics, biosolutions, and precision fermentation.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
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| 03202026 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| 03202026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| 03202026 | MKC | McCormick | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 73.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.7 |
| Rev LTM | 36,266 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,230 |
| FCF LTM | 893 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 893 |
| CFO LTM | 1,563 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,122 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.7 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.0 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 39.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ag Services and Oilseeds | 68,232 | 75,534 | 82,122 | 67,047 | 49,716 |
| Carbohydrate Solutions | 12,123 | 13,792 | 15,902 | 11,110 | 8,472 |
| Nutrition | 7,417 | 7,259 | 7,821 | 6,712 | 5,800 |
| Other Business | 431 | 424 | 396 | 380 | 367 |
| Intersegment revenue | -2,673 | -3,074 | -4,685 | ||
| Total | 85,530 | 93,935 | 101,556 | 85,249 | 64,355 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ag Services and Oilseeds | 2,447 | 4,067 | 4,401 | 2,775 | 2,105 |
| Carbohydrate Solutions | 1,376 | 1,375 | 1,413 | 1,283 | 717 |
| Nutrition | 386 | 427 | 668 | 691 | 574 |
| Gains on sales of assets and businesses | 47 | 77 | 83 | ||
| Impairment and restructuring charges | -147 | -213 | -76 | ||
| Other Business | 167 | 25 | 52 | ||
| Total | 4,209 | 5,869 | 6,549 | 4,638 | 3,455 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $67.04 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 32.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/05/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $69.40 | $61.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.4% | 8.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.2% | 26.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.09 | -0.17 |
| Upside Capture | 55.36 | 21.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 12.5% | 8.0% |
ADM Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| Up Beta | -0.80 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| Down Beta | 0.98 | 1.30 | 0.70 | 0.24 | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| Up Capture | 80% | 34% | 110% | 31% | 23% | 5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 36 | 69 | 128 | 382 |
| Down Capture | -10% | -30% | -29% | -23% | -27% | 45% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 57 | 124 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 50.9% | 26.4% | 1.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 4.0% | 12.7% | 0.04 | 28.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.1% | 12.9% | 1.32 | 7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.9% | 27.5% | 1.49 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.40 | 23.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.5% | 13.7% | 0.93 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -7.8% | 42.6% | -0.08 | 6.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 5.7% | 28.0% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 13.2% | 0.26 | 39.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 29.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 18.8% | 0.14 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.2% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 9.6% | 26.9% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.2% | 14.7% | 0.36 | 52.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 31.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -1.0% | -1.1% | -0.5% |
| 11/4/2025 | 0.0% | -6.8% | -0.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 6.0% | 7.2% | 14.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 0.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -5.1% | -7.9% | -7.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -6.0% | -5.3% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2024 | -1.3% | -8.1% | -3.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -3.3% | -0.8% | -0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 11.4% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -24.2% | -23.7% | -20.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 3.6 | 3.92 | 4.25 | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.30 Bil | 1.40 Bil | 1.50 Bil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 3.25 | 3.38 | 3.5 | -15.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 4 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McAtee, David R Ii | Direct | Buy | 2092026 | 64.90 | 7,500 | 486,720 | 486,720 | Form | |
| 2 | Weber, Jennifer L | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 67.04 | 25,000 | 1,675,900 | 8,290,208 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, Gregory A | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 68.48 | 50,000 | 3,424,000 | 20,552,355 | Form |
| 4 | Cuddy, Christopher M | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 73.50 | 35,000 | 2,572,500 | 24,332,324 | Form |
| 5 | Pinner, Ian R | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 71.53 | 34,106 | 2,439,602 | 6,486,054 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Agricultural Products & Services Resources |
| AgFunder Network Partners |
| The Packer |
| CropLife |
| Agri-Pulse |
| USDA Data |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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