Tearsheet

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $58.08 | Market Cap: $28.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $58.08
Market Cap: $28.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil
  Key risks
ADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.7 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.5%
6 Key risks
ADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM) stock moved by -5.7% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Profit Guidance: On November 4, 2025, ADM significantly reduced its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance for 2025 to a range of $3.25 to $3.50, a notable decrease from its earlier target of approximately $4.00. This downward revision, despite an EPS beat for the third quarter, contributed significantly to negative investor sentiment.

2. Underperformance of Agricultural Services and Oilseeds (AS&O) Segment: The company's largest division, Agricultural Services and Oilseeds (AS&O), experienced a substantial drop in operating profit during the third quarter of 2025. This was largely driven by a significant 93% tumble in earnings from the crushing business, which underperformed throughout the year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADM Return12%37%40%-20%-28%19%49%
Peers Return17%38%-6%11%-8%11%71%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADM Win Rate67%67%67%33%25%67% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%52%55%42%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADM Max Drawdown-36%-2%0%-24%-29%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-3%-19%-16%-18%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BG, INGR, ANDE, TSN, DAR. See ADM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven165 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven435 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven215.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2112 days1480 days

Compare to BG, CAG, DAR, AFRI, AGRZ


In The Past

Archer-Daniels Midland's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)

Better Bets than Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Archer-Daniels Midland

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADMBGINGRANDETSNDARMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionAndersonsTyson Fo.Darling . 
Mkt Price58.5892.95111.7955.2558.4934.5958.53
Mkt Cap28.918.37.21.919.35.512.8
Rev LTM83,21160,1097,26211,59654,4415,84433,018
Op Inc LTM1,5191,5521,060951,4413741,250
FCF LTM4,703-1,1245462341,177476511
FCF 3Y Avg2,906101697467816428582
CFO LTM6,0875509754522,155774874
CFO 3Y Avg4,3821,3961,0356342,1668441,215

Growth & Margins

ADMBGINGRANDETSNDARMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionAndersonsTyson Fo.Darling . 
Rev Chg LTM-4.4%10.3%-3.8%2.2%2.1%-1.1%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.5%-3.2%-1.8%-9.7%0.7%-0.6%-2.5%
Rev Chg Q2.2%71.6%-2.9%2.2%2.2%10.0%2.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%18.2%-0.7%0.5%0.5%2.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM1.8%2.6%14.6%0.8%2.6%6.4%2.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.0%3.5%12.8%1.3%2.0%6.9%3.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.4%-0.3%-0.5%-0.7%0.7%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%0.9%13.4%3.9%4.0%13.2%5.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.1%2.4%13.6%4.6%4.0%13.6%4.8%
FCF/Rev LTM5.7%-1.9%7.5%2.0%2.2%8.1%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.4%0.2%9.2%3.2%1.5%7.0%3.3%

Valuation

ADMBGINGRANDETSNDARMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionAndersonsTyson Fo.Darling . 
Mkt Cap28.918.37.21.919.35.512.8
P/S0.30.31.10.10.40.80.4
P/EBIT-7.08.28.1-15.68.2
P/E24.312.111.918.540.745.321.4
P/CFO4.829.18.13.08.96.37.2
Total Yield5.8%9.4%11.1%7.4%4.3%2.2%6.6%
Dividend Yield1.7%1.2%2.7%2.0%1.8%0.0%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%8.6%28.2%-7.2%7.9%
D/E-1.10.20.6-0.90.7
Net D/E-0.90.10.5-0.90.7

Returns

ADMBGINGRANDETSNDARMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionAndersonsTyson Fo.Darling . 
1M Rtn-0.3%-1.1%4.5%12.7%11.1%0.5%2.5%
3M Rtn-3.3%16.4%-9.2%40.7%9.0%4.4%6.7%
6M Rtn10.4%10.4%-17.3%51.4%9.6%-10.3%10.0%
12M Rtn18.2%18.4%-19.4%31.2%2.0%-2.1%10.1%
3Y Rtn-30.1%5.7%23.6%71.1%5.0%-43.1%5.3%
1M Excs Rtn-1.0%-1.8%3.7%12.0%10.4%-0.3%1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-4.2%15.8%-10.6%37.2%7.9%5.2%6.6%
6M Excs Rtn-2.0%-2.0%-29.7%38.9%-2.8%-22.7%-2.4%
12M Excs Rtn5.1%5.3%-31.7%14.1%-10.9%-12.5%-2.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-99.3%-62.1%-46.1%-4.4%-67.8%-111.9%-64.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ag Services and Oilseeds75,53482,12267,04749,71648,741
Carbohydrate Solutions13,79215,90211,1108,4729,886
Nutrition7,2597,8216,7125,8005,677
Other Business424396380367352
Intersegment revenue-3,074-4,685   
Total93,935101,55685,24964,35564,656


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ag Services and Oilseeds4,0674,4012,7752,1051,935
Carbohydrate Solutions1,3751,4131,283717644
Nutrition427668691574418
Gains on sales of assets and businesses 47778312
Impairment and restructuring charges -147-213-76-146
Other Business 167255285
Total5,8696,5494,6383,4552,948


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,764,245
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.2%
Average Daily Volume3,164,451
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.35
Basic Shares Quantity484,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20250.0%-6.8%-0.4%
8/5/20256.0%7.2%14.5%
5/6/20251.7%5.1%0.5%
2/4/2025-5.1%-7.9%-7.4%
11/5/20242.4%-1.1%1.5%
7/30/2024-1.3%-8.1%-3.5%
4/30/2024-3.3%-0.8%-0.3%
1/22/2024-24.2%-23.7%-20.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101014
# Negative141410
Median Positive2.7%6.3%3.9%
Median Negative-2.6%-4.3%-3.9%
Max Positive6.0%11.4%17.0%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.7%-20.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241118202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021