Tearsheet

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $59.67 | Market Cap: $28.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $59.67
Market Cap: $28.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 5.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) stock price movements are influenced by a variety of factors related to global agricultural commodity markets, financial performance, and policy changes. While a specific -4.4% movement for the period of 8/31/2025 to 12/5/2025 cannot be analyzed as it lies in the future, recent financial reports and market analyses provide insights into potential drivers of stock fluctuations for the company. Here are key points that have influenced ADM's stock performance based on available recent information, which could hypothetically contribute to future movements:

1. Declining Earnings and Revenue: ADM has faced periods of declining revenue and earnings. For instance, in 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 8.95% to $85.53 billion, and earnings fell by 48.32% to $1.80 billion compared to the previous year. This downward trend in financial performance can negatively impact investor confidence and stock valuation.

2. Weakness in Ag Services & Oilseeds Segment: The Ag Services & Oilseeds segment has experienced headwinds due to a dynamic landscape, weak market conditions, and policy uncertainty. Factors such as slower farmer selling, higher logistics costs, depressed vegetable oil demand, and lower prices, partly due to increased market supply and uncertainty around the Producer Tax Credit policy, have hurt the segment's performance. For 2025, ADM anticipates this segment's operating profit to be lower than in 2024.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADM Return12%37%40%-20%-28%22%52%
Peers Return27%13%3%-9%-11%1%20%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADM Win Rate67%67%67%33%25%70% 
Peers Win Rate38%30%52%35%33%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADM Max Drawdown-36%-2%0%-24%-29%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-3%-8%-17%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BG, CAG, DAR, AFRI, AGRZ. See ADM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven165 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven435 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven215.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2112 days1480 days

Compare to BG, CAG, DAR, AFRI, AGRZ


In The Past

Archer-Daniels Midland's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)

Better Bets than Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Archer-Daniels Midland

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADMBGCAGDARAFRIAGRZMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.Conagra .Darling .Forafric.Agroz  
Mkt Price59.3494.3816.9636.5610.572.6826.76
Mkt Cap28.718.68.15.8--13.4
Rev LTM82,77660,10911,4505,844--35,780
Op Inc LTM1,5821,5521,348374--1,450
FCF LTM4,109-1,1241,141476--808
FCF 3Y Avg3,6291011,133428--780
CFO LTM5,5785501,544774--1,159
CFO 3Y Avg5,1201,3961,520844--1,458

Growth & Margins

ADMBGCAGDARAFRIAGRZMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.Conagra .Darling .Forafric.Agroz  
Rev Chg LTM-6.8%10.3%-4.1%-1.1%---2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.0%-3.2%-0.9%-0.6%---2.1%
Rev Chg Q-4.9%71.6%-5.8%10.0%--2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%18.2%-1.4%2.5%--0.6%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%2.6%11.8%6.4%--4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%3.5%15.1%6.9%--5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.4%-0.7%0.7%---0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM6.7%0.9%13.5%13.2%--10.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%2.4%12.8%13.6%--9.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.0%-1.9%10.0%8.1%--6.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%0.2%9.6%7.0%--5.5%

Valuation

ADMBGCAGDARAFRIAGRZMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.Conagra .Darling .Forafric.Agroz  
Mkt Cap28.718.68.15.8--13.4
P/S0.30.30.80.8--0.5
P/EBIT11.97.05.715.6--9.4
P/E23.212.110.345.4--17.7
P/CFO4.629.15.76.3--6.0
Total Yield6.2%9.4%17.3%2.2%--7.8%
Dividend Yield1.9%1.2%7.6%0.0%--1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.8%1.0%9.5%7.2%--8.4%
D/E0.41.10.90.9--0.9
Net D/E0.40.90.90.9--0.9

Returns

ADMBGCAGDARAFRIAGRZMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.Conagra .Darling .Forafric.Agroz  
1M Rtn-0.5%1.2%-0.9%12.3%10.2%12.1%5.7%
3M Rtn-3.4%17.2%-8.6%15.8%26.0%-15.8%
6M Rtn28.5%29.9%-20.8%20.2%34.5%-28.5%
12M Rtn19.1%12.8%-33.6%0.1%3.6%-3.6%
3Y Rtn-28.0%10.5%-48.2%-40.1%-5.6%--28.0%
1M Excs Rtn-1.7%-0.0%-2.1%11.0%9.0%10.9%4.5%
3M Excs Rtn-10.7%6.9%-16.0%8.3%22.8%-6.9%
6M Excs Rtn13.0%14.4%-36.3%4.7%19.1%-13.0%
12M Excs Rtn0.2%-3.8%-48.2%-21.4%-9.0%--9.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-105.5%-74.3%-119.7%-121.0%-77.9%--105.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ag Services and Oilseeds75,53481,60869,36449,71648,741
Carbohydrate Solutions13,79214,92912,4128,4729,886
Nutrition7,2597,6986,8655,8005,677
Other Business424396380367352
Intersegment revenue-3,074-3,075-3,772  
Total93,935101,55685,24964,35564,656


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ag Services and Oilseeds4,0674,4012,7992,1051,935
Carbohydrate Solutions1,3751,4131,318717644
Nutrition427668632574418
Gains on sale of assets  778312
Impairment and restructuring charges  -213-76-146
Other Business  255285
Total5,8696,4824,6383,4552,948


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,090,393
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.5%
Average Daily Volume4,302,906
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.04
Basic Shares Quantity484,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241118202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211026202110-Q 9/30/2021