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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Market Price (4/28/2026): $70.6 | Market Cap: $34.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Market Price (4/28/2026): $70.6
Market Cap: $34.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Agricultural Products & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 12%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.4%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%

Key risks
ADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more.

0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 12%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.4%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
8 Key risks
ADM key risks include [1] a weakening environment for its Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments due to lower crushing margins and U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) stock has gained about 30% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Optimistic 2026 Earnings Outlook and Q4 2025 Beat. Archer-Daniels-Midland projected an adjusted EPS for 2026 ranging from approximately $3.60 to $4.25, a significant increase from the $3.43 adjusted EPS reported for 2025. This forward guidance, indicating a return to earnings growth and positioning 2025 as a cyclical trough, was a key driver for investors. Furthermore, the company reported adjusted EPS of $0.87 for Q4 2025, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.80.

2. Anticipated Recovery in Crush Margins and Biofuel Policy Clarity. The positive 2026 outlook is largely contingent on progressing clarity regarding U.S. biofuel policy, which is expected to normalize and potentially expand crush margins that experienced an 81% collapse in operating profit in the crushing subsegment in 2025. This anticipated recovery in a core business segment was further highlighted when Barclays raised ADM's price target from $68 to $77 on April 1, 2026, specifically attributing the increase to expected tightening in the oilseed market following the EPA's finalization of the Set 2 Rule.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 29.9% change in ADM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254282026Change
Stock Price ($)57.0674.1329.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)83,21180,269-3.5%
Net Income Margin (%)1.4%1.3%-6.0%
P/E Multiple23.233.343.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4844840.0%
Cumulative Contribution29.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADM27.6% 
Market (SPY)5.2%2.0%
Sector (XLP)7.6%30.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 26.1% change in ADM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)93020254282026Change
Stock Price ($)58.8074.1326.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)82,77680,269-3.0%
Net Income Margin (%)1.3%1.3%1.2%
P/E Multiple25.933.328.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4844840.0%
Cumulative Contribution26.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADM23.8% 
Market (SPY)8.0%-0.4%
Sector (XLP)7.5%33.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 59.9% change in ADM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 169.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254282026Change
Stock Price ($)46.3774.1359.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)85,53080,269-6.2%
Net Income Margin (%)2.1%1.3%-36.2%
P/E Multiple12.433.3169.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)480484-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution59.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADM57.0% 
Market (SPY)29.3%26.0%
Sector (XLP)4.5%40.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.7% change in ADM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 261.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120234282026Change
Stock Price ($)72.1874.132.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)101,55680,269-21.0%
Net Income Margin (%)4.3%1.3%-68.6%
P/E Multiple9.233.3261.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)55348414.3%
Cumulative Contribution2.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ADM0.9% 
Market (SPY)81.5%19.3%
Sector (XLP)20.7%34.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ADM Return37%40%-20%-28%18%24%62%
Peers Return31%1%-6%1%6%28%71%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%5%91%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADM Win Rate67%67%33%25%67%75% 
Peers Win Rate63%57%50%48%45%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADM Max Drawdown-2%0%-24%-29%-16%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-16%-21%-14%-12%-1% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BG, INGR, DAR, TSN, CTVA. See ADM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/28/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven165 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven435 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-68.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven215.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,112 days1,480 days

Compare to BG, INGR, DAR, TSN, CTVA

In The Past

Archer-Daniels-Midland's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM):
  • The ExxonMobil of global agriculture.
  • The Intel Inside for much of the world's food and animal feed.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Agricultural Commodity Services: ADM procures, stores, transports, processes, and merchandises major agricultural raw materials like oilseeds, corn, and wheat globally.
  • Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals: The company produces and distributes a variety of vegetable oils for food and industrial use, alongside protein meals for animal feed.
  • Sweeteners and Starches: ADM offers a range of corn and wheat-based products including various sweeteners, syrups, starches, and dextrose.
  • Biofuels and Industrial Products: It produces ethyl alcohol and ethanol, as well as partially refined oils used in biodiesel and glycols for industrial applications.
  • Specialty Food and Feed Ingredients: This segment provides natural flavors, colors, proteins, emulsifiers, fibers, and health and nutrition products like probiotics and botanical extracts for diverse customer needs.
  • Animal Nutrition Products: ADM supplies formula feeds, animal health and nutrition products, and also engages in contract and private label pet food manufacturing.
  • Financial Services: The company provides commodity brokerage services and structured trade finance activities to support agricultural commerce.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) sells primarily to other businesses rather than directly to individual consumers. Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:

  1. Food and Beverage Manufacturers: These customers utilize ADM's extensive range of ingredients, including vegetable oils, protein meals, sweeteners (corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, dextrose), flour, natural flavors, colors, proteins, emulsifiers, and other specialty food ingredients for their products such as salad oils, margarine, shortening, baked goods, and beverages.
  2. Animal Nutrition and Pet Food Manufacturers: This category includes companies that produce formula feeds, animal health and nutrition products. They purchase protein meals, corn gluten feed and meal, distillers' grains, and other animal feed ingredients. ADM also provides contract and private label pet treats and foods to these businesses.
  3. Industrial and Energy Sector Companies: These customers use ADM's products for various industrial applications. This includes partially refined oils for biodiesel production, glycols for use in chemicals and paints, ethyl alcohol and ethanol, and citric acids for industrial processes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has a seasoned management team. Juan R. Luciano, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer
Juan R. Luciano joined ADM in 2011 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, was named President in February 2014, and became Chief Executive Officer in January 2015. He assumed the role of Chairman of the Board in January 2016. Before joining ADM, Mr. Luciano had a 25-year career at The Dow Chemical Company, where he last served as Executive Vice President and President of the Performance division. Under his leadership, ADM has evolved its focus towards nutrition products, expanding its global presence and adopting innovative technologies. He also oversaw the sale of ADM's global cocoa business in 2015.

Monish Patolawala, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Monish Patolawala is ADM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, responsible for Global Finance and Accounting, Global Business Services, Global Technology, and Enterprise Strategy functions. Prior to ADM, he served as President and CFO of 3M Company, where he oversaw finance, information technology, enterprise strategy, and global service centers. Before his tenure at 3M, Mr. Patolawala spent over two decades at GE in various finance capacities, including CFO of GE Healthcare and head of operational transformation for all of GE.

Greg A. Morris, Senior Vice President and President, Agricultural Services and Oilseeds
Greg A. Morris joined ADM in 1995 and has held numerous senior-level merchandising and management positions across the company's business units. Before his current role, he was president of ADM's Oilseeds business. He also played a key role in the launch of what was then known as the company's WILD Flavors and Specialty Ingredients business unit. Mr. Morris is responsible for ADM's agricultural origination, global trading, transportation, and oilseeds processing businesses, and provides strategic oversight for the company's operations in South America.

Christopher M. Cuddy, Senior Vice President and President, Carbohydrate Solutions
Christopher M. Cuddy serves as Senior Vice President and President of Carbohydrate Solutions.

Ismael Roig, President, EMEA and President, Animal Nutrition
Ismael Roig joined ADM in 2004, having previously spent 11 years in various finance positions at General Motors. He briefly served as interim CFO following an administrative leave of the prior CFO. He is currently the President for Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and President of Animal Nutrition.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) faces several key risks inherent to its global agricultural commodity processing and trading business:

  1. Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: ADM's core profitability is highly susceptible to fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. These price swings can be driven by factors such as weather patterns affecting crop yields, global demand shifts, and energy costs. Furthermore, its extensive global supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions caused by geopolitical events, trade route blockages, and broader economic factors like inflation, which can impact its ability to procure, transport, and process raw materials efficiently.
  2. Regulatory, Policy, and Compliance Risks: As a multinational agribusiness, ADM operates within a complex web of regulations. The company has a history of legal and regulatory challenges, including past convictions for price fixing, violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and environmental fines. More recently, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged ADM and former executives with accounting and disclosure fraud related to its Nutrition segment, leading to earnings restatements and significant financial penalties. Additionally, policy changes, such as delays in biofuel policies, can directly impact ADM's earnings guidance and demand for its products. There are also emerging risks related to environmental stewardship, such as a lack of disclosure on pesticide use in its supply chains, and potential shifts in consumer preferences away from "ultraprocessed food" that could lead to new regulatory pressures or lawsuits.
  3. Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risks: ADM's significant international footprint makes it highly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and shifts in trade policy. Trade wars, tariffs, and retaliatory measures, such as the threat of U.S.-EU tariffs, can severely restrict market access for agricultural exports, disrupt global trade flows, and negatively impact crop prices and ADM's margins. Geopolitical conflicts, like the war in the Middle East, can also directly lead to disruptions in global trade, altered grain flows, and increased commodity prices, affecting ADM's operations and profitability.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat for Archer-Daniels-Midland stems from advancements in **cellular agriculture and precision fermentation technologies**. These innovations enable the production of proteins, fats, flavors, and other food and feed ingredients directly from cell cultures or microbial fermentation, bypassing traditional large-scale agricultural commodity cultivation and processing. If these methods achieve significant scale and cost-competitiveness, they could reduce global demand for traditionally farmed and processed agricultural commodities (such as oilseeds, corn, and wheat) that form the core of ADM's Ag Services and Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions segments, potentially rendering parts of the conventional supply chain less necessary.

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Addressable Market Sizes for Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) operates across a broad spectrum of agricultural and nutrition markets. The estimated global addressable market sizes for its main products and services are as follows:

  • Agricultural Commodities: The global agricultural commodity market was valued at approximately USD 5,597.70 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 8,034.03 billion by 2029. Other estimates place the global agricultural commodity market at USD 1.76 trillion in 2023, expected to grow to USD 2.2 trillion by 2032. In 2025, the market reached US$ 6,168.58 billion and is expected to reach US$ 11,201.04 billion by 2033.
  • Sweeteners: The global sweeteners market size was estimated at USD 109.16 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 155.48 billion by 2034. Another report indicates a market size of USD 109.18 billion in 2024, projected to grow to nearly USD 156.26 billion by 2034. Other figures suggest the global sweeteners market was valued at USD 89.95 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 126.15 billion by 2033.
  • Industrial Starch: The global industrial starch market size was estimated at USD 124,593.0 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 197,422.7 million by 2030. Another estimate places the global industrial starch market at USD 134.87 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately USD 296.61 billion by 2035. Separately, the global food starch market size reached USD 27.1 billion in 2024.
  • Ethanol: The global ethanol market size was approximately USD 109.11 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 182.88 billion by 2034. Other sources estimate the global ethanol market size at USD 97.52 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 141.05 billion by 2033. Another report states the market size as USD 114.98 billion in 2025, projected to reach around USD 199.40 billion by 2035.
  • Flavors (Natural Flavors, Flavor Systems): The global flavors market size was valued at USD 17.22 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 27.65 billion by 2032. Other reports indicate the global flavors market size was estimated at USD 21.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.03 billion by 2033. The global food flavors market size reached USD 18.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 24.4 billion by 2034.
  • Probiotics: The global probiotics market size was estimated at USD 113.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 301.17 billion by 2033. Other estimates include a market size of USD 71.9 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 124.0 billion by 2034. Another source suggests the market was valued at USD 114.31 billion in 2025, projected to reach around USD 429.01 billion by 2035.
  • Prebiotics: The global prebiotics market size was valued at USD 11.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 38.41 billion by 2034. Other data indicates the global prebiotics market size was estimated at USD 11.10 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 32.91 billion by 2033.
  • Botanical Extracts: The global botanical extracts market size was valued at USD 7.49 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 12.97 billion by 2032. Another report states the global botanical extracts market was estimated at USD 30 billion in 2024, growing to USD 64.6 billion by 2034. Other sources estimate the market size as USD 7.69 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately USD 20.26 billion by 2035.
  • Animal Feed: The global animal feed market size was estimated at USD 656.11 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 921.33 billion by 2033. Other estimates suggest the market was USD 548.1 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 699.0 billion by 2034. Another report indicates the global animal feed market size was valued at USD 196.92 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 328.36 billion by 2032.
  • Pet Food: The global pet food market size was valued at USD 136.6 billion in 2025, and is estimated to reach USD 197.5 billion by 2034. Other figures show the global pet food market was valued at USD 128.21 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 185.54 billion by 2030. Another source states the global pet food market was valued at USD 128.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 226.5 billion by 2034.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:

  1. Growth in the Nutrition Segment: ADM anticipates robust growth from its Nutrition segment, which includes flavors, specialty ingredients, health and wellness products, and animal nutrition. This segment is considered less cyclical than the core Ag Services and Oilseeds business and has shown strong performance. The company is actively expanding its capabilities in areas like alternative proteins and biosolutions, driven by strong demand for natural colors, flavors, and functional ingredients.
  2. Expansion and Stability in the Biofuel Sector: The biofuel sector, particularly the demand for renewable diesel and ethanol, is identified as a significant tailwind for ADM's revenue. Anticipated clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is expected to boost the biofuel industry's stability and drive demand for ADM's products. Improved ethanol margins are also projected to contribute positively.
  3. Increased US Soy Crush Capacity and Normalization of Crush Margins: ADM expects revenue growth from an increase in US soy crush capacity. The normalization of crush margins, which have been under pressure due to biofuel policy uncertainties, is projected to be a key driver for earnings recovery and will positively influence the Ag Services & Oilseeds segment.
  4. Strategic Investments in Higher-Value Products and Sustainability-Driven Initiatives: ADM is focusing on investments in innovation, higher-value product offerings, and sustainability initiatives across its portfolio. This strategic shift aims to move a greater portion of the company's business towards specialized areas that offer more stable earnings and better margin potential, encompassing areas like health and wellness ingredients, and other biosolutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has made several capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years, focusing on returning value to shareholders, strategic investments, and optimizing operational efficiency.

Share Repurchases

  • ADM reported annual share repurchases of $2.673 billion in 2023 and $2.327 billion in 2024.
  • In December 2024, ADM extended its share repurchase program through December 31, 2029, and authorized the repurchase of an additional 100 million shares, bringing the total authorized to 300 million shares.
  • As of December 2024, approximately 114.8 million shares remained available for future repurchases under the program. However, no share repurchases were made in 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland's shares outstanding declined from 0.542 billion in 2023 to 0.493 billion in 2024, a 9.04% decrease. This trend continued with a 1.83% decline to 0.484 billion shares outstanding in 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In 2024, ADM allocated approximately $1 billion to mergers and acquisitions.
  • In 2025, ADM acquired Vandamme Hungaria Kft, a non-genetically modified crush and extraction facility in Hungary.
  • Also in 2025, the company launched a joint venture, Plainsman Company, aimed at enhancing cottonseed processing capabilities.

Capital Expenditures

  • Archer-Daniels-Midland's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $1.237 billion. Capital expenditures were $1.509 billion in 2024 and $1.062 billion in 2025.
  • The company projects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to range between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion.
  • The primary focus of these expenditures includes enhancing operational capabilities, supporting asset reliability, driving cost efficiencies, and investing in plant digitization, operating leverage, decarbonization solutions, and the evolution of the biofuels and energy sector. Investments are also directed towards enhanced nutrition, biotics, biosolutions, and precision fermentation.

Better Bets vs. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Bunge Global or Archer-Daniels-Midland: Which Stock Has More Upside?01/23/2026
2ADM Stock Surges 14% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Key Strategic Investment01/16/2026
3Archer-Daniels Midland Earnings Notes12/27/2025
4How Low Can Archer-Daniels Midland Stock Really Go?10/17/2025
5Day 5 of Gains Streak for Archer-Daniels Midland Stock with 7.6% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/25/2025]08/26/2025
6Archer-Daniels Midland vs Keurig Dr Pepper: Which Is A Better Investment?08/18/2025
7Better Bet Than ADM Stock: Pay Less Than Archer-Daniels Midland To Get More From TMUS, UNH 08/12/2025
8Better Bet Than ADM Stock: Pay Less Than Archer-Daniels Midland To Get More From CL, USFD 08/12/2025
9ADM Dip Buy Analysis07/10/2025
10ARTICLES 
11Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High04/02/2026
12S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High03/12/2026
13Bunge Global vs Archer-Daniels-Midland: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today?01/23/2026
14How Does Archer-Daniels Midland Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?11/20/2025
15S&P 500 Movers | Winners: XYZ, GEV, CEG | Losers: ES, DASH, ADM11/20/2025
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1Bunge Global or Archer-Daniels-Midland: Which Stock Has More Upside?
2ADM Stock Surges 14% With A 6-day Winning Spree On Key Strategic Investment
3Archer-Daniels Midland Earnings Notes
4How Low Can Archer-Daniels Midland Stock Really Go?
5Day 5 of Gains Streak for Archer-Daniels Midland Stock with 7.6% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/25/2025]
6Archer-Daniels Midland vs Keurig Dr Pepper: Which Is A Better Investment?
7Better Bet Than ADM Stock: Pay Less Than Archer-Daniels Midland To Get More From TMUS, UNH 
8Better Bet Than ADM Stock: Pay Less Than Archer-Daniels Midland To Get More From CL, USFD 
9ADM Dip Buy Analysis
10ARTICLES
11Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
12S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
13Bunge Global vs Archer-Daniels-Midland: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today?
14How Does Archer-Daniels Midland Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
15S&P 500 Movers | Winners: XYZ, GEV, CEG | Losers: ES, DASH, ADM

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KMB_3202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03202026KMBKimberly-ClarkDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-1.8%-1.8%-1.9%
MKC_3202026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03202026MKCMcCormickDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%

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Financials

ADMBGINGRDARTSNCTVAMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionDarling .Tyson Fo.Corteva  
Mkt Price74.13127.00112.1561.3663.6578.9576.54
Mkt Cap35.924.67.19.722.453.323.5
Rev LTM80,26970,3297,2196,13655,13117,40136,266
Op Inc LTM1,4241,2961,0374141,1632,6311,230
FCF LTM4,204-8795116791,1072,815893
FCF 3Y Avg2,7996107985099881,846893
CFO LTM5,4528449441,0602,0663,4061,563
CFO 3Y Avg4,2342,0171,1469332,2262,4402,122

Growth & Margins

ADMBGINGRDARTSNCTVAMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionDarling .Tyson Fo.Corteva  
Rev Chg LTM-6.2%32.4%-2.8%7.4%2.8%2.9%2.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.5%3.4%-3.0%-1.5%1.0%-0.1%-0.8%
Rev Chg Q-13.7%75.5%-2.4%20.6%5.1%-1.7%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.5%17.0%-0.6%5.0%1.3%-0.4%0.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-31.3%-19.9%2.7%46.8%-33.8%21.4%-8.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-28.0%-11.0%11.1%-6.8%314.2%11.2%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM1.8%1.8%14.4%6.7%2.1%15.1%4.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.8%3.4%13.3%6.8%1.9%13.4%5.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.7%-0.2%0.3%-0.5%-0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM6.8%1.2%13.1%17.3%3.7%19.6%9.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%3.4%15.1%15.1%4.1%14.2%9.6%
FCF/Rev LTM5.2%-1.2%7.1%11.1%2.0%16.2%6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.3%1.1%10.5%8.3%1.8%10.7%5.8%

Valuation

ADMBGINGRDARTSNCTVAMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionDarling .Tyson Fo.Corteva  
Mkt Cap35.924.67.19.722.453.323.5
P/S0.40.31.01.60.43.10.7
P/Op Inc25.219.06.923.519.320.319.8
P/EBIT18.514.07.134.326.328.522.4
P/E33.330.29.8154.7112.048.741.0
P/CFO6.629.27.69.210.815.610.0
Total Yield4.5%4.1%13.1%0.6%2.4%2.7%3.4%
Dividend Yield1.4%0.8%2.9%0.0%1.6%0.7%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.3%4.9%10.1%8.6%4.9%4.6%6.7%
D/E0.30.60.30.40.40.00.3
Net D/E0.20.60.10.40.3-0.00.3

Returns

ADMBGINGRDARTSNCTVAMedian
NameArcher-D.Bunge Gl.IngredionDarling .Tyson Fo.Corteva  
1M Rtn2.6%-1.3%0.0%3.5%-0.4%-3.7%-0.2%
3M Rtn9.5%10.0%-3.4%39.5%-2.4%8.4%8.9%
6M Rtn22.7%33.5%-3.2%81.5%24.2%25.0%24.6%
12M Rtn59.7%62.3%-12.0%92.6%9.6%29.5%44.6%
3Y Rtn4.8%48.1%14.5%3.0%13.1%33.6%13.8%
1M Excs Rtn-9.7%-13.5%-12.0%-8.6%-12.4%-15.8%-12.2%
3M Excs Rtn7.1%7.7%-5.7%37.2%-4.7%6.1%6.6%
6M Excs Rtn13.7%26.4%-8.7%72.5%20.9%19.5%20.2%
12M Excs Rtn29.3%32.5%-40.5%63.3%-20.3%0.5%14.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-72.4%-27.3%-56.2%-65.2%-56.3%-39.9%-56.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Ag Services and Oilseeds68,23275,53482,12267,04749,716
Carbohydrate Solutions12,12313,79215,90211,1108,472
Nutrition7,4177,2597,8216,7125,800
Other Business431424396380367
Intersegment revenue-2,673-3,074-4,685  
Total85,53093,935101,55685,24964,355


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Ag Services and Oilseeds2,4474,0674,4012,7752,105
Carbohydrate Solutions1,3761,3751,4131,283717
Nutrition386427668691574
Gains on sales of assets and businesses  477783
Impairment and restructuring charges  -147-213-76
Other Business  1672552
Total4,2095,8696,5494,6383,455


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$72.80 
Market Cap ($ Bil)35.2 
First Trading Date04/05/1983 
Distance from 52W High-1.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$69.75$62.30
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA4.4%16.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility27.8%26.6%
Downside Capture-0.29-0.31
Upside Capture-8.4512.99
Correlation (SPY)-0.3%4.2%
ADM Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.400.340.420.120.450.39
Up Beta-0.800.280.070.190.620.60
Down Beta0.981.300.700.240.680.46
Up Capture80%34%110%31%23%5%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days12233669128382
Down Capture-10%-30%-29%-23%-27%45%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days10192757124368

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with ADM
ADM56.5%26.5%1.66-
Sector ETF (XLP)5.6%12.5%0.1627.3%
Equity (SPY)31.5%12.5%1.923.8%
Gold (GLD)38.6%27.2%1.186.4%
Commodities (DBC)45.9%18.0%1.9524.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.4%13.4%0.7526.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-19.0%42.1%-0.395.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with ADM
ADM7.0%28.0%0.26-
Sector ETF (XLP)6.2%13.2%0.2539.2%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5929.4%
Gold (GLD)20.2%17.8%0.928.2%
Commodities (DBC)14.8%19.1%0.6329.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.4%18.8%0.0930.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.3%56.2%0.3511.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with ADM
ADM9.9%26.9%0.38-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.4%14.7%0.3751.9%
Equity (SPY)14.9%17.9%0.7148.4%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.704.4%
Commodities (DBC)9.9%17.7%0.4631.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2344.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.9%1.0711.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 33120263.9%
Average Daily Volume3.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity484.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/3/2026-1.0%-1.1%-0.5%
11/4/20250.0%-6.8%-0.4%
8/5/20256.0%7.2%14.5%
5/6/20251.7%5.1%0.5%
2/4/2025-5.1%-7.9%-7.4%
11/5/2024-6.0%-5.3%-5.5%
7/30/2024-1.3%-8.1%-3.5%
4/30/2024-3.3%-0.8%-0.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9913
# Negative151511
Median Positive3.1%7.2%4.4%
Median Negative-3.3%-4.5%-3.5%
Max Positive6.0%11.4%17.0%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.7%-20.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202411/18/202410-Q
06/30/202407/30/202410-Q
03/31/202404/30/202410-Q
12/31/202303/12/202410-K
09/30/202310/24/202310-Q
06/30/202307/25/202310-Q
03/31/202304/25/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
09/30/202210/25/202210-Q
06/30/202207/26/202210-Q
03/31/202204/26/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Adjusted EPS3.63.924.25   
2026 Capital Expenditures1.30 Bil1.40 Bil1.50 Bil   

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Adjusted EPS3.253.383.5-15.6% LoweredGuidance: 4 for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Cuddy, Christopher MSenior Vice PresidentDirectSell316202673.5035,0002,572,50024,332,324Form
2Pinner, Ian RSenior Vice PresidentDirectSell316202671.5334,1062,439,6026,486,054Form
3Morris, Gregory ASenior Vice PresidentDirectSell311202668.4850,0003,424,00020,552,355Form
4Weber, Jennifer LSenior Vice PresidentDirectSell219202667.0425,0001,675,9008,290,208Form
5McAtee, David R II DirectBuy209202664.907,500486,720486,720Form

Industry Resources

Agricultural Products & Services Resources
AgFunder Network Partners
The Packer
CropLife
Agri-Pulse
USDA Data

External Quote Links


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