Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $87.68 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $87.68Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 27% | Key risksCALM key risks include [1] devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and [2] ongoing regulatory and antitrust investigations. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 27% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Key risksCALM key risks include [1] devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and [2] ongoing regulatory and antitrust investigations. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CALM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 23% movement in Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
**1. Missed Q1 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Estimates**
Cal-Maine Foods reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (for the period ending August 30, 2025) on October 1, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.12. This figure significantly missed Wall Street's consensus estimates, which ranged from $5.10 to $5.35 per share. The company's revenue of $922.6 million also fell short of analyst expectations of approximately $960.31 million. This earnings miss, despite year-over-year growth, led to a notable decline in the stock price.
**2. Lower Conventional Shell Egg Pricing**
A primary factor contributing to the earnings shortfall and subsequent stock decline was lower pricing for conventional shell eggs. This reduction in prices was attributed to the recovery of industry supplies from previous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which had previously driven egg prices higher. As the supply normalized, conventional egg prices faced downward pressure, impacting Cal-Maine's profitability in that segment.
**3. Analyst Downgrades and Revised Price Targets**
Following the disappointing Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report and the outlook for weaker near-term egg pricing, several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for Cal-Maine Foods. For instance, BMO Capital lowered its price target for CALM from $105.00 to $97.00, while maintaining a "Market Perform" (Hold) rating. Goldman Sachs also maintained a "Hold" rating and adjusted its price target from $110 to $98. Such adjustments often signal reduced confidence in the stock's near-term upside potential.
**4. Department of Justice (DOJ) Investigation**
Cal-Maine Foods revealed that it received a civil investigative demand from the Department of Justice concerning potential anticompetitive practices related to egg pricing. This ongoing investigation introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty and potential legal risk for the company, which can negatively influence investor sentiment and stock valuation.
**5. Significant Insider Selling Activity**
Adolphus B. Baker, a Board Chair at Cal-Maine Foods, engaged in substantial insider selling during the six months preceding the Q1 fiscal 2026 report. He sold 1,287,616 shares for an estimated $116,658,009. Insider transactions of this magnitude can be perceived by the market as a lack of confidence in the company's future performance from a key executive, contributing to negative pressure on the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CALM Return | -12% | -1% | 52% | 14% | 87% | -9% | 157% |
| Peers Return | � | -9% | 2% | 1% | 85% | -14% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CALM Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 41% | 46% | 54% | 46% | 58% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CALM Max Drawdown | -28% | -9% | 0% | -14% | -6% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -22% | -34% | -22% | -4% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VITL, POST. See CALM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CALM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1022 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1579 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DOLE, VFF, LMNR, BRBF, MEHA
In The Past
Cal-Maine Foods's stock fell -32.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/23/2022. A -32.3% loss requires a 47.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CALM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cal-Maine Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,399 |
| Op Inc LTM | 829 |
| FCF LTM | 488 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 479 |
| CFO LTM | 998 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 23.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.3 |
| P/E | 17.3 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 80.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/1/2025 | -1.2% | -1.3% | -6.0% |
| 7/22/2025 | 13.8% | 3.3% | 11.5% |
| 4/8/2025 | 2.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| 1/7/2025 | 1.0% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| 10/1/2024 | -1.9% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| 7/23/2024 | 3.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 4/2/2024 | 3.6% | 6.0% | -4.6% |
| 1/3/2024 | 2.6% | -0.6% | 4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -2.7% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.8% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -10.2% | -15.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10012025 | 10-Q 8/30/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7222025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4082025 | 10-Q 3/1/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1072025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10012024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7232024 | 10-K 6/1/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 3/2/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1032024 | 10-Q 12/2/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10032023 | 10-Q 9/2/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7252023 | 10-K 6/3/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3282023 | 10-Q 2/25/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12282022 | 10-Q 11/26/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9272022 | 10-Q 8/27/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7192022 | 10-K 5/28/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3292022 | 10-Q 2/26/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12282021 | 10-Q 11/27/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |