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Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $87.68 | Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $87.68
Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 27%
Key risks
CALM key risks include [1] devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and [2] ongoing regulatory and antitrust investigations.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
 
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
 
3 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
 
4 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
 
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
 
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 37%, Dividend Yield is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 27%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -28%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
3 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36%
4 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
7 Key risks
CALM key risks include [1] devastating highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and [2] ongoing regulatory and antitrust investigations.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CALM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate 23% movement in Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Missed Q1 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Estimates**

Cal-Maine Foods reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results (for the period ending August 30, 2025) on October 1, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.12. This figure significantly missed Wall Street's consensus estimates, which ranged from $5.10 to $5.35 per share. The company's revenue of $922.6 million also fell short of analyst expectations of approximately $960.31 million. This earnings miss, despite year-over-year growth, led to a notable decline in the stock price. **2. Lower Conventional Shell Egg Pricing**

A primary factor contributing to the earnings shortfall and subsequent stock decline was lower pricing for conventional shell eggs. This reduction in prices was attributed to the recovery of industry supplies from previous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which had previously driven egg prices higher. As the supply normalized, conventional egg prices faced downward pressure, impacting Cal-Maine's profitability in that segment. **3. Analyst Downgrades and Revised Price Targets**

Following the disappointing Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings report and the outlook for weaker near-term egg pricing, several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for Cal-Maine Foods. For instance, BMO Capital lowered its price target for CALM from $105.00 to $97.00, while maintaining a "Market Perform" (Hold) rating. Goldman Sachs also maintained a "Hold" rating and adjusted its price target from $110 to $98. Such adjustments often signal reduced confidence in the stock's near-term upside potential. **4. Department of Justice (DOJ) Investigation**

Cal-Maine Foods revealed that it received a civil investigative demand from the Department of Justice concerning potential anticompetitive practices related to egg pricing. This ongoing investigation introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty and potential legal risk for the company, which can negatively influence investor sentiment and stock valuation. **5. Significant Insider Selling Activity**

Adolphus B. Baker, a Board Chair at Cal-Maine Foods, engaged in substantial insider selling during the six months preceding the Q1 fiscal 2026 report. He sold 1,287,616 shares for an estimated $116,658,009. Insider transactions of this magnitude can be perceived by the market as a lack of confidence in the company's future performance from a key executive, contributing to negative pressure on the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CALM Return-12%-1%52%14%87%-9%157%
Peers Return-9%2%1%85%-14%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CALM Win Rate25%42%75%67%75%67% 
Peers Win Rate41%46%54%46%58%33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CALM Max Drawdown-28%-9%0%-14%-6%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-34%-22%-4%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VITL, POST. See CALM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCALMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven19 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1022 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven176.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1579 days1480 days

Compare to DOLE, VFF, LMNR, BRBF, MEHA


In The Past

Cal-Maine Foods's stock fell -32.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/23/2022. A -32.3% loss requires a 47.8% gain to breakeven.

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About Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Better Bets than Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CALM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cal-Maine Foods

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CALMVITLPOSTMedian
NameCal-Main.Vital Fa.Post  
Mkt Price87.6932.79101.1987.69
Mkt Cap4.21.55.84.2
Rev LTM4,3997128,1584,399
Op Inc LTM1,60080829829
FCF LTM1,215-19488488
FCF 3Y Avg72717479479
CFO LTM1,38643998998
CFO 3Y Avg88246893882

Growth & Margins

CALMVITLPOSTMedian
NameCal-Main.Vital Fa.Post  
Rev Chg LTM65.8%23.6%3.0%23.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg31.8%29.4%11.9%29.4%
Rev Chg Q17.4%37.2%11.8%17.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%8.2%3.0%3.2%
Op Mgn LTM36.4%11.2%10.2%11.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg27.4%9.3%9.8%9.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.9%-0.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM31.5%6.0%12.2%12.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.4%7.9%11.6%11.6%
FCF/Rev LTM27.6%-2.7%6.0%6.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.6%3.3%6.2%6.2%

Valuation

CALMVITLPOSTMedian
NameCal-Main.Vital Fa.Post  
Mkt Cap4.21.55.84.2
P/S1.02.60.71.0
P/EBIT2.721.9-12.3
P/E3.630.417.317.3
P/CFO3.343.15.85.8
Total Yield36.9%3.3%5.8%5.8%
Dividend Yield9.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg20.6%1.7%-11.2%
D/E0.00.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.3-0.0--0.2

Returns

CALMVITLPOSTMedian
NameCal-Main.Vital Fa.Post  
1M Rtn-0.4%6.7%-4.4%-0.4%
3M Rtn-14.0%-26.8%-1.6%-14.0%
6M Rtn-11.7%-8.3%-10.2%-10.2%
12M Rtn-10.2%-15.5%-12.5%-12.5%
3Y Rtn80.7%119.0%11.4%80.7%
1M Excs Rtn-1.1%5.9%-5.2%-1.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.1%-30.3%-3.8%-16.1%
6M Excs Rtn-24.0%-20.7%-22.6%-22.6%
12M Excs Rtn-22.5%-23.8%-24.7%-23.8%
3Y Excs Rtn17.1%52.5%-57.7%17.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Conventional shell egg sales1,2922,0521,062766830
Specialty shell egg sales926957649540485
Egg products and prepared foods89122603731
Other2015664
Total2,3263,1461,7771,3491,352


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,088,741
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.9%
Average Daily Volume776,516
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.27
Basic Shares Quantity48,281,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/1/2025-1.2%-1.3%-6.0%
7/22/202513.8%3.3%11.5%
4/8/20252.5%6.9%4.2%
1/7/20251.0%8.5%5.9%
10/1/2024-1.9%13.7%17.1%
7/23/20243.1%10.7%12.1%
4/2/20243.6%6.0%-4.6%
1/3/20242.6%-0.6%4.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141216
# Negative10128
Median Positive2.3%5.7%4.2%
Median Negative-2.9%-2.7%-6.5%
Max Positive13.8%13.7%17.1%
Max Negative-14.5%-10.2%-15.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251001202510-Q 8/30/2025
5312025722202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025408202510-Q 3/1/2025
11302024107202510-Q 11/30/2024
83120241001202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024723202410-K 6/1/2024
2292024402202410-Q 3/2/2024
11302023103202410-Q 12/2/2023
83120231003202310-Q 9/2/2023
5312023725202310-K 6/3/2023
2282023328202310-Q 2/25/2023
113020221228202210-Q 11/26/2022
8312022927202210-Q 8/27/2022
5312022719202210-K 5/28/2022
2282022329202210-Q 2/26/2022
113020211228202110-Q 11/27/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data