Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

POST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, Post (POST) experienced a stock decline of -13.5%, primarily influenced by the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance Following Q4 2025 Earnings. While Post Holdings' fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings reported an adjusted EPS beat, the company's revenue slightly missed consensus estimates. More significantly, the forecast for fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA projected only modest growth of 1-4% and included a warning of a "meaningful decrease in Q1 EBITDA," which likely caused investor apprehension about future performance.

2. Normalization of Avian Influenza Pricing Benefits. A key driver behind the cautious Q1 fiscal year 2026 guidance was the expected end of favorable pricing benefits in the Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments that had resulted from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The market viewed the normalization of these temporary boosts as a negative factor impacting future profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
POST Return-7%12%22%-2%30%-15%37%
Peers Return-14%31%5%-2%23%-11%26%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
POST Win Rate42%50%67%50%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate42%62%48%46%54%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
POST Max Drawdown-34%-8%-14%-12%0%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-4%-16%-19%-6%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PPC, INGR, TR, FLO, BRBF. See POST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-19.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days120 days

Compare to PPC, INGR, TR, FLO, BRBF


In The Past

Post's stock fell -19.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -19.2% loss requires a 23.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Post (POST)

Better Bets than Post (POST)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to POST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Post

Peers to compare with:

Financials

POSTPPCINGRTRFLOBRBFMedian
NamePost Pilgrims.IngredionTootsie .Flowers .BRB Foods 
Mkt Price97.8639.57108.2437.7310.68-39.57
Mkt Cap5.59.47.02.72.3-5.5
Rev LTM7,92118,3527,2627305,13506,198
Op Inc LTM8221,7491,060106320-1571
FCF LTM433829546100325-0379
FCF 3Y Avg45467469787257-1355
CFO LTM9321,430975126451-0692
CFO 3Y Avg8481,2091,0351113841616

Growth & Margins

POSTPPCINGRTRFLOBRBFMedian
NamePost Pilgrims.IngredionTootsie .Flowers .BRB Foods 
Rev Chg LTM0.8%1.8%-3.8%0.3%0.3%-100.0%0.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.4%1.9%-1.8%3.4%3.0%-3.0%
Rev Chg Q1.9%3.8%-2.9%3.0%3.0%-3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.0%-0.7%0.9%0.7%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM10.4%9.5%14.6%14.6%6.2%-10.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.7%6.5%12.8%13.4%5.7%-9.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-0.3%-0.3%-0.5%-0.5%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM11.8%7.8%13.4%17.3%8.8%-11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.3%6.7%13.6%15.0%7.5%-11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.5%4.5%7.5%13.7%6.3%-6.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.0%3.7%9.2%11.8%5.0%-6.0%

Valuation

POSTPPCINGRTRFLOBRBFMedian
NamePost Pilgrims.IngredionTootsie .Flowers .BRB Foods 
Mkt Cap5.59.47.02.72.3-5.5
P/S0.80.51.14.20.5-0.8
P/EBIT7.55.58.222.98.5-8.2
P/E16.67.911.932.614.2-14.2
P/CFO6.56.88.124.26.1-6.8
Total Yield6.0%17.9%11.1%3.9%14.6%-11.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%5.2%2.7%0.8%7.5%-2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.7%5.6%8.6%3.5%7.0%-7.0%
D/E1.20.30.20.00.8-0.3
Net D/E1.00.30.1-0.00.8-0.3

Returns

POSTPPCINGRTRFLOBRBFMedian
NamePost Pilgrims.IngredionTootsie .Flowers .BRB Foods 
1M Rtn-7.4%6.2%0.8%1.6%-9.1%-0.8%
3M Rtn-9.4%-10.7%-14.8%-6.5%-24.0%--10.7%
6M Rtn-9.9%-16.7%-19.8%7.9%-32.5%--16.7%
12M Rtn-18.5%-13.2%-25.8%19.3%-49.1%--18.5%
3Y Rtn3.3%77.1%17.8%-6.9%-58.9%-3.3%
1M Excs Rtn-8.6%5.0%-0.5%0.3%-10.4%--0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-15.4%-16.5%-20.9%-13.2%-32.0%--16.5%
6M Excs Rtn-25.3%-32.1%-35.3%-7.6%-47.9%--32.1%
12M Excs Rtn-32.3%-26.5%-38.5%5.6%-63.3%--32.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-67.8%-2.9%-52.0%-75.8%-131.0%--67.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,920,989
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.1%
Average Daily Volume621,345
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.31
Basic Shares Quantity55,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241115202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221117202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211119202110-K 9/30/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data