Post (POST)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $97.9 | Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Post (POST)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $97.9Market Cap: $5.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
POST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, Post (POST) experienced a stock decline of -13.5%, primarily influenced by the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance Following Q4 2025 Earnings. While Post Holdings' fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings reported an adjusted EPS beat, the company's revenue slightly missed consensus estimates. More significantly, the forecast for fiscal year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA projected only modest growth of 1-4% and included a warning of a "meaningful decrease in Q1 EBITDA," which likely caused investor apprehension about future performance.
2. Normalization of Avian Influenza Pricing Benefits. A key driver behind the cautious Q1 fiscal year 2026 guidance was the expected end of favorable pricing benefits in the Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments that had resulted from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The market viewed the normalization of these temporary boosts as a negative factor impacting future profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| POST Return | -7% | 12% | 22% | -2% | 30% | -15% | 37% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 31% | 5% | -2% | 23% | -11% | 26% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| POST Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 62% | 48% | 46% | 54% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| POST Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -14% | -12% | 0% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -4% | -16% | -19% | -6% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PPC, INGR, TR, FLO, BRBF. See POST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | POST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 44 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 120 days |
Compare to PPC, INGR, TR, FLO, BRBF
In The Past
Post's stock fell -19.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -19.2% loss requires a 23.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to POST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Post
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,198 |
| Op Inc LTM | 571 |
| FCF LTM | 379 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 355 |
| CFO LTM | 692 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 616 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11172022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11192021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
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