Tearsheet

Post (POST)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $101.11 | Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Post (POST)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $101.11
Market Cap: $5.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
Key risks
POST key risks include [1] vulnerability to agricultural diseases such as avian influenza and [2] its significant financial leverage.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
5 Key risks
POST key risks include [1] vulnerability to agricultural diseases such as avian influenza and [2] its significant financial leverage.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

POST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Proposed Private Offering of Senior Notes on December 1, 2025.** On December 1, 2025, Post Holdings announced its intention to commence a private offering of $1.3 billion in senior notes due in 2036. The company planned to use the proceeds to repay outstanding 5.50% senior notes due in 2029. This announcement led to a 3% decline in Post's shares on that day.

**2. Broader Market Weakness.** The drop in Post's stock on December 1, 2025, occurred amidst a general weakening of the broader stock market, with major indices experiencing declines. This wider market downturn likely contributed to the negative investor sentiment surrounding Post Holdings.

**3. Increase in Short Interest.** Recent data indicates an increase in short interest for Post Holdings by 5.34%. This rise in short positions suggests a decrease in overall investor sentiment and a more bearish outlook from some market participants regarding the company's future performance.

**4. Significant Daily Declines in November 2025.** The stock experienced notable single-day declines in November 2025, including a 7.15% decrease on November 21, 2025, and a 2.40% decrease on November 24, 2025. These individual drops contributed to the overall negative movement of the stock during the approximate timeframe.

**5. Prevailing Negative Short-Term Trend and Forecast.** Around December 17, 2025, analysis suggested that Post Holdings stock was in the middle of a wide and falling short-term trend, with further declines signaled. The stock was expected to fall by -7.36% over the subsequent three months, indicating a generally negative short-term outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
POST Return-7%12%22%-2%30%-14%39%
Peers Return7%10%15%-20%9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
POST Win Rate42%50%67%50%58%33% 
Peers Win Rate55%48%63%38%53%41% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
POST Max Drawdown-34%-8%-14%-12%0%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-9%-8%-28%-7%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GIS, K, HRL, CAG, SJM. See POST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-19.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven44 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days120 days

Compare to PPC, INGR, TR, FLO, BRBF


In The Past

Post's stock fell -19.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -19.2% loss requires a 23.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Post (POST)

Better Bets than Post (POST)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to POST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
14.0%14.0%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
14.0%14.0%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.5%7.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Post

Peers to compare with:

Financials

POSTGISKHRLCAGSJMMedian
NamePost General .KellanovaHormel F.Conagra .JM Smuck. 
Mkt Price101.1948.61-23.9917.92100.3948.61
Mkt Cap5.826.129.013.68.611.612.6
Rev LTM8,15818,77712,64312,10611,4508,77311,778
Op Inc LTM8292,9121,8558951,3481,3321,340
FCF LTM4881,7836505341,141636643
FCF 3Y Avg4792,3008957741,133795845
CFO LTM9982,3601,3058451,5449691,152
CFO 3Y Avg8933,0051,5121,0531,5201,2681,390

Growth & Margins

POSTGISKHRLCAGSJMMedian
NamePost General .KellanovaHormel F.Conagra .JM Smuck. 
Rev Chg LTM3.0%-5.7%-1.4%1.6%-4.1%-0.7%-1.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.9%-0.9%1.5%-0.9%-0.9%2.5%0.3%
Rev Chg Q11.8%-7.2%0.3%1.5%-5.8%2.6%0.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.0%-2.0%0.1%0.4%-1.4%0.7%0.2%
Op Mgn LTM10.2%15.5%14.7%7.4%11.8%15.2%13.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.8%17.1%12.1%8.2%15.1%16.6%13.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.9%-0.4%-0.5%-0.7%-0.3%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM12.2%12.6%10.3%7.0%13.5%11.0%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.6%15.3%12.2%8.8%12.8%14.8%12.5%
FCF/Rev LTM6.0%9.5%5.1%4.4%10.0%7.2%6.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.2%11.7%7.2%6.4%9.6%9.3%8.2%

Valuation

POSTGISKHRLCAGSJMMedian
NamePost General .KellanovaHormel F.Conagra .JM Smuck. 
Mkt Cap5.826.129.013.68.611.612.6
P/S0.71.42.31.10.81.31.2
P/EBIT-9.015.1-5.7-9.0
P/E17.310.321.328.510.3-9.713.8
P/CFO5.811.021.816.15.712.011.5
Total Yield5.8%14.8%7.5%8.2%17.3%-6.3%7.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%5.1%2.8%4.6%7.6%4.0%4.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.5%3.6%-9.5%-6.5%
D/E-0.50.2-0.9-0.5
Net D/E-0.50.2-0.9-0.5

Returns

POSTGISKHRLCAGSJMMedian
NamePost General .KellanovaHormel F.Conagra .JM Smuck. 
1M Rtn-4.4%3.5%-7.7%4.7%-5.8%3.5%
3M Rtn-1.6%0.1%--2.4%-3.2%-3.6%-2.4%
6M Rtn-10.2%-5.9%--18.7%-13.4%6.7%-10.2%
12M Rtn-12.5%-22.9%--22.2%-31.3%-8.8%-22.2%
3Y Rtn11.4%-37.6%--41.7%-45.0%-28.1%-37.6%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%2.8%-6.9%3.9%-6.5%2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-3.8%-2.6%--4.0%-3.8%-6.3%-3.8%
6M Excs Rtn-22.6%-18.3%--31.1%-25.8%-5.7%-22.6%
12M Excs Rtn-24.7%-34.9%--35.2%-43.2%-19.1%-34.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.7%-105.9%--112.0%-114.1%-96.8%-105.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Post Consumer Brands5,1064,7823,5293,4683,292
Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail4,8754,9225,0235,0745,022
Weetabix1,9481,7381,5911,9301,864
Corporate9242051,1651,2461,315
BellRing Brands   696654
Total12,85411,64711,30812,41512,147


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,130,304
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.3%
Average Daily Volume1,147,645
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.60
Basic Shares Quantity54,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/2025-7.2%-6.7% 
8/7/20254.9%5.7%3.3%
5/8/2025-0.1%-0.4%-0.7%
2/6/20256.3%6.7%8.5%
11/14/2024-1.5%4.8%8.0%
8/1/20243.0%2.1%4.8%
5/2/2024-2.1%0.7%0.2%
2/1/20247.7%13.5%10.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131715
# Negative1179
Median Positive3.0%3.4%4.8%
Median Negative-2.1%-3.0%-3.5%
Max Positive8.5%13.9%11.4%
Max Negative-7.2%-6.7%-11.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251121202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241115202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231117202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221117202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data