Hershey (HSY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $188.95 | Market Cap: $38.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Hershey (HSY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $188.95Market Cap: $38.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6% | Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 10/23/2024. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Key risksHSY key risks include [1] eroding profitability and increased leverage from volatile cocoa prices and [2] reputational damage from product safety litigation, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Short seller reportGrizzly Reports report on 10/23/2024. |
| Key risksHSY key risks include [1] eroding profitability and increased leverage from volatile cocoa prices and [2] reputational damage from product safety litigation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HSY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, I cannot provide an analysis of actual stock movements and their causes for this specific future period. I will provide information based on the most recent available data for The Hershey Company (HSY).
1. Hershey's Q3 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, but the company narrowed its full-year sales outlook, citing a slowdown in consumer demand in North America.
2. The company announced plans for an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system transition, expected to cause some disruptions and impact costs in the near term.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HSY Return | 6% | 30% | 22% | -18% | -7% | 15% | 46% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 15% | 17% | -9% | 5% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HSY Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 50% | 55% | 43% | 50% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HSY Max Drawdown | -24% | -5% | -0% | -21% | -7% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -7% | -9% | -21% | -10% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDLZ, TR, GIS, K, KHC. See HSY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 371 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 763 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MDLZ, KHC, K, GIS, HRL
In The Past
Hershey's stock fell -35.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/1/2023. A -35.0% loss requires a 53.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 01312025 | HSY | Hershey | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 30.2% | -3.0% |
| 11302023 | HSY | Hershey | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | -3.5% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 01312025 | HSY | Hershey | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 30.2% | -3.0% |
| 11302023 | HSY | Hershey | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | -3.5% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hershey
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| Rev LTM | 15,710 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,534 |
| FCF LTM | 1,681 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,920 |
| CFO LTM | 2,253 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,599 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.0 |
| P/E | 22.1 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Confectionery | 9,123 | 8,536 | 7,682 | 7,085 | |
| North America Salty Snacks | 1,093 | 1,029 | 555 | 438 | |
| International | 949 | 853 | 733 | 627 | |
| Confectionery and confectionery-based portfolio | 7,554 | ||||
| Snacks portfolio | 432 | ||||
| Total | 11,165 | 10,419 | 8,971 | 8,150 | 7,986 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Confectionery | 3,117 | 2,811 | 2,476 | 2,275 | |
| North America Salty Snacks | 158 | 160 | 101 | 76 | |
| International | 148 | 108 | 74 | -0 | |
| Costs associated with business realignment activities | -3 | -4 | -17 | -32 | |
| Unallocated mark-to-market losses on commodity derivatives | -59 | -78 | 24 | -6 | |
| Unallocated corporate expense | -800 | -736 | -615 | -521 | |
| Long-lived and intangible asset impairment charges | -9 | ||||
| Total | 2,561 | 2,261 | 2,044 | 1,783 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.4% | -3.1% | 6.4% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.4% | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.0% | 0.9% | -3.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.4% | 8.3% | 27.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -2.2% | 4.3% | -0.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | 1.1% | 1.2% | -2.2% |
| 5/3/2024 | 1.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 2/8/2024 | 4.1% | -1.5% | 0.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 2.6% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.0% | -2.0% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 8.3% | 27.9% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -6.2% | -10.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |