Tearsheet

Hershey (HSY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $188.95 | Market Cap: $38.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Hershey (HSY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $188.95
Market Cap: $38.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%
Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 10/23/2024.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
Key risks
HSY key risks include [1] eroding profitability and increased leverage from volatile cocoa prices and [2] reputational damage from product safety litigation, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
6 Short seller report
Grizzly Reports report on 10/23/2024.
7 Key risks
HSY key risks include [1] eroding profitability and increased leverage from volatile cocoa prices and [2] reputational damage from product safety litigation, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HSY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, I cannot provide an analysis of actual stock movements and their causes for this specific future period. I will provide information based on the most recent available data for The Hershey Company (HSY).

1. Hershey's Q3 2023 earnings exceeded expectations, but the company narrowed its full-year sales outlook, citing a slowdown in consumer demand in North America.

2. The company announced plans for an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system transition, expected to cause some disruptions and impact costs in the near term.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HSY Return6%30%22%-18%-7%15%46%
Peers Return3%15%17%-9%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HSY Win Rate50%75%58%33%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%50%55%43%50%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HSY Max Drawdown-24%-5%-0%-21%-7%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-7%-9%-21%-10%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDLZ, TR, GIS, K, KHC. See HSY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHSYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-35.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven763 days1,480 days

Compare to MDLZ, KHC, K, GIS, HRL


In The Past

Hershey's stock fell -35.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/1/2023. A -35.0% loss requires a 53.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hershey (HSY)

Better Bets than Hershey (HSY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
HSY_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025HSYHersheyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.8%30.2%-3.0%
HSY_11302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302023HSYHersheyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.2%-3.5%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
HSY_1312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01312025HSYHersheyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.8%30.2%-3.0%
HSY_11302023_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302023HSYHersheyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.2%-3.5%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hershey

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HSYMDLZTRGISKKHCMedian
NameHershey Mondelez.Tootsie .General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Mkt Price188.9453.8237.8248.61-24.7548.61
Mkt Cap38.369.62.826.129.029.329.1
Rev LTM11,29537,64573018,77712,64325,16415,710
Op Inc LTM2,1554,3341062,9121,8554,8952,534
FCF LTM1,5792,2901001,7836503,6311,681
FCF 3Y Avg1,5393,156872,3008953,0471,920
CFO LTM2,1463,5761262,3601,3054,4742,253
CFO 3Y Avg2,1934,3781113,0051,5124,0662,599

Growth & Margins

HSYMDLZTRGISKKHCMedian
NameHershey Mondelez.Tootsie .General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Rev Chg LTM2.5%4.1%0.3%-5.7%-1.4%-3.7%-0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.2%7.5%3.4%-0.9%1.5%-0.8%2.5%
Rev Chg Q26.0%5.9%3.0%-7.2%0.3%-2.3%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.0%1.5%0.9%-2.0%0.1%-0.6%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM19.1%11.5%14.6%15.5%14.7%19.5%15.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.6%14.5%13.4%17.1%12.1%19.6%15.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%-1.6%-0.5%-0.9%-0.4%-0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM19.0%9.5%17.3%12.6%10.3%17.8%14.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.8%12.1%15.0%15.3%12.2%15.6%15.2%
FCF/Rev LTM14.0%6.1%13.7%9.5%5.1%14.4%11.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.9%8.7%11.8%11.7%7.2%11.7%11.7%

Valuation

HSYMDLZTRGISKKHCMedian
NameHershey Mondelez.Tootsie .General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Mkt Cap38.369.62.826.129.029.329.1
P/S3.42.14.21.42.31.22.2
P/EBIT19.918.922.99.015.1-5.517.0
P/E24.822.932.610.321.3-7.122.1
P/CFO17.722.624.211.021.86.919.7
Total Yield6.9%7.4%3.9%14.8%7.5%-8.0%7.2%
Dividend Yield2.9%3.1%0.8%5.1%2.8%6.2%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%3.4%3.5%6.5%3.6%8.3%3.8%
D/E0.20.30.00.50.20.70.2
Net D/E0.10.3-0.00.50.20.60.2

Returns

HSYMDLZTRGISKKHCMedian
NameHershey Mondelez.Tootsie .General .KellanovaKraft He. 
1M Rtn5.6%-3.1%-3.8%3.5%-2.7%2.7%
3M Rtn-0.4%-13.7%-8.9%0.1%--2.3%-2.3%
6M Rtn13.0%-17.7%12.0%-5.9%--0.7%-0.7%
12M Rtn9.9%-9.6%21.7%-22.9%--16.1%-9.6%
3Y Rtn-13.4%-12.1%-1.2%-37.6%--28.0%-13.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.8%-3.9%-4.5%2.8%-1.9%1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-0.7%-15.6%-8.8%-2.6%--4.9%-4.9%
6M Excs Rtn0.7%-30.0%-0.4%-18.3%--13.0%-13.0%
12M Excs Rtn-4.5%-21.5%12.8%-34.9%--28.3%-21.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-83.3%-82.1%-74.5%-105.9%--97.1%-83.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America Confectionery9,1238,5367,6827,085 
North America Salty Snacks1,0931,029555438 
International949853733627 
Confectionery and confectionery-based portfolio    7,554
Snacks portfolio    432
Total11,16510,4198,9718,1507,986


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America Confectionery3,1172,8112,4762,275 
North America Salty Snacks15816010176 
International14810874-0 
Costs associated with business realignment activities-3-4-17-32 
Unallocated mark-to-market losses on commodity derivatives-59-7824-6 
Unallocated corporate expense-800-736-615-521 
Long-lived and intangible asset impairment charges   -9 
Total2,5612,2612,0441,783 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,706,886
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-12.5%
Average Daily Volume1,669,496
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.22
Basic Shares Quantity202,861,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-2.4%-3.1%6.4%
7/30/20251.4%1.5%-1.7%
5/1/2025-0.0%0.9%-3.1%
2/6/20254.4%8.3%27.9%
11/7/2024-2.2%4.3%-0.4%
8/1/20241.1%1.2%-2.2%
5/3/20241.0%2.1%0.9%
2/8/20244.1%-1.5%0.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161712
# Negative8712
Median Positive3.0%2.6%6.3%
Median Negative-2.3%-3.0%-2.0%
Max Positive5.7%8.3%27.9%
Max Negative-4.4%-6.2%-10.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023727202310-Q 7/2/2023
3312023427202310-Q 4/2/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 10/2/2022
6302022728202210-Q 7/3/2022
3312022428202210-Q 4/3/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data