Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.7%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

USFD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Shifting Consumer Behavior

Economic slowdowns or shifts in consumer dining habits, such as reduced restaurant visits or a preference for at-home cooking, can directly impact US Foods' sales volumes to its foodservice customers.

2. Inflationary Pressures on Operating Costs

Persistent high inflation affecting food costs, transportation, labor, and other operational expenses can squeeze profit margins if the company is unable to fully pass these costs onto customers.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
USFD Return-20%5%-2%33%49%14%84%
Peers Return-6%51%-9%-4%25%8%67%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
USFD Win Rate50%50%42%50%83%50% 
Peers Win Rate40%50%45%53%57%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
USFD Max Drawdown-77%-10%-24%0%-1%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-68%-12%-26%-30%-23%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYY, PFGC, CHEF, UNFI, HFFG. See USFD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUSFDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven237 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-76.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven331.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1177 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven303 days120 days

Compare to SYY, PFGC, CHEF, UNFI, HFFG


In The Past

US Foods's stock fell -36.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/29/2021. A -36.6% loss requires a 57.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About US Foods (USFD)

Better Bets than US Foods (USFD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to USFD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%
USFD_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020USFDUS FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
24.8%115.2%-20.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.8%3.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.1%-2.1%-2.1%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
7.2%7.2%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%1.4%-5.1%
USFD_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020USFDUS FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
24.8%115.2%-20.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for US Foods

Peers to compare with:

Financials

USFDSYYPFGCCHEFUNFIHFFGMedian
NameUS Foods Sysco Performa.Chefs' W.United N.HF Foods  
Mkt Price75.6873.3692.6060.3033.322.5366.83
Mkt Cap17.135.114.42.32.00.18.4
Rev LTM39,11582,03564,9594,04131,7841,21735,450
Op Inc LTM1,2023,08182614810510487
FCF LTM9781,5995238723918381
FCF 3Y Avg8511,924511361499330
CFO LTM1,3592,5431,01112847031741
CFO 3Y Avg1,1812,7659158744918682

Growth & Margins

USFDSYYPFGCCHEFUNFIHFFGMedian
NameUS Foods Sysco Performa.Chefs' W.United N.HF Foods  
Rev Chg LTM4.8%2.9%10.6%8.9%2.6%4.9%4.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.6%4.8%5.6%19.9%3.2%6.2%5.6%
Rev Chg Q4.8%3.2%10.8%9.6%-5.6%4.1%4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.2%0.8%2.6%2.3%-1.4%1.0%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM3.1%3.8%1.3%3.7%0.3%0.8%2.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.9%3.9%1.4%3.2%0.4%0.4%2.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.1%-0.2%0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM3.5%3.1%1.6%3.2%1.5%2.6%2.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.2%3.5%1.5%2.3%1.5%1.5%1.9%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%1.9%0.8%2.1%0.8%1.5%1.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.3%2.4%0.8%0.9%0.5%0.8%0.8%

Valuation

USFDSYYPFGCCHEFUNFIHFFGMedian
NameUS Foods Sysco Performa.Chefs' W.United N.HF Foods  
Mkt Cap17.135.114.42.32.00.18.4
P/S0.40.50.20.60.10.10.3
P/EBIT16.513.119.515.2-151.7-4.514.1
P/E31.021.749.730.2-19.3-3.525.9
P/CFO12.715.516.017.54.85.414.1
Total Yield3.2%7.2%2.0%3.3%-5.2%-28.4%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.4%5.2%4.1%0.9%12.5%3.6%4.7%
D/E0.30.40.50.41.51.40.5
Net D/E0.30.30.50.41.51.30.5

Returns

USFDSYYPFGCCHEFUNFIHFFGMedian
NameUS Foods Sysco Performa.Chefs' W.United N.HF Foods  
1M Rtn2.7%0.6%-5.5%-0.7%-10.8%17.7%-0.0%
3M Rtn-1.9%-8.9%-10.7%-5.5%18.5%-20.7%-7.2%
6M Rtn-2.2%2.0%5.6%-2.6%20.3%-32.7%-0.1%
12M Rtn7.2%-5.2%4.5%34.0%32.8%-32.2%5.8%
3Y Rtn111.0%-6.8%52.4%55.6%-28.7%-43.7%22.8%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%0.7%-5.5%-0.7%-10.8%17.7%0.0%
3M Excs Rtn-8.3%-15.9%-17.4%-12.9%9.9%-25.8%-14.4%
6M Excs Rtn-16.9%-12.7%-9.2%-17.3%5.6%-47.4%-14.8%
12M Excs Rtn-5.1%-15.8%-8.6%21.3%20.6%-46.5%-6.8%
3Y Excs Rtn40.0%-80.2%-15.7%-14.7%-101.9%-113.7%-48.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Meats and seafood11,95312,37511,2458,1319,313
Dry grocery products6,4075,7584,9793,9314,427
Refrigerated and frozen grocery products6,0535,2534,4533,5834,253
Dairy3,7273,5642,8012,3942,685
Equipment, disposables and supplies3,5713,5363,0902,4552,483
Beverage products1,9711,7311,4651,1861,403
Produce1,9151,8401,4541,2051,375
Total35,59734,05729,48722,88525,939


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,518,238
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.6%
Average Daily Volume2,104,444
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.05
Basic Shares Quantity225,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023511202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022512202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021217202210-K 1/1/2022