Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 8.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -19%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.8x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 59%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 8.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.7 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Product Evolution. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Alternative Nicotine Products.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 8.9%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 59%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 8.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.7 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Product Evolution. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, and Alternative Nicotine Products.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -19%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.8x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Altria (MO) experienced a stock price decline of 14.25% over the past month, which includes the approximate period from July 31, 2025, to November 8, 2025. This downturn was primarily driven by several key factors:

1. Missed Revenue Expectations in Q3 2025: Altria reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, revealing that total sales fell 1.7% year-over-year to $5.25 billion, missing market forecasts of $5.32 billion. This revenue shortfall was a significant concern for investors, overshadowing an in-line adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.45.

2. Continued Decline in Smokeable Product Volumes: The tobacco giant's core cigarette business continued to face substantial shipment declines. Domestic cigarette volumes decreased by 8.2% in Q3 2025, with shipments for its flagship Marlboro brand declining by 11.7% during the quarter. This ongoing trend in traditional tobacco products remains a significant risk to Altria's performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MO Return-10%24%4%-4%41%17%84%
Peers Return28%18%-19%-9%19%4%38%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MO Win Rate50%58%75%42%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%50%43%43%52%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MO Max Drawdown-37%-1%-10%-8%-2%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-31%-27%-30%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PM, TPB, UVV, XXII, MO. See MO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven870 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven364 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-81.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven448.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to PM, TPB, UVV, XXII, MO


In The Past

Altria's stock fell -27.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/6/2022. A -27.2% loss requires a 37.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Altria (MO)

Better Bets than Altria (MO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.6%-6.6%-6.9%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.2%-7.2%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-29.8%-29.8%-29.8%
MO_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.5%26.7%-6.6%
MO_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.3%18.0%-22.3%
MO_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.5%7.9%-14.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.6%-6.6%-6.9%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.2%-7.2%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.7%-5.7%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-29.8%-29.8%-29.8%
MO_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.5%26.7%-6.6%
MO_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.3%18.0%-22.3%
MO_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018MOAltriaDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.5%7.9%-14.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Altria

Financials

MOPMTPBUVVXXIIMedian
NameAltria Philip M.Turning .Universal22nd Cen. 
Mkt Price58.05155.56100.2153.241.1058.05
Mkt Cap97.8242.21.81.30.01.8
Rev LTM20,25939,9924362,98792,987
Op Inc LTM11,96114,81993249-13249
FCF LTM8,72810,12339157-14157
FCF 3Y Avg8,7109,2675379-3979
CFO LTM8,87611,52650202-14202
CFO 3Y Avg8,88710,67960139-36139

Growth & Margins

MOPMTPBUVVXXIIMedian
NameAltria Philip M.Turning .Universal22nd Cen. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.2%7.5%53.5%3.0%-41.9%3.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.9%8.0%6.4%7.9%-39.1%6.4%
Rev Chg Q0.2%9.4%31.2%6.1%-49.8%6.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%2.4%6.9%1.5%-20.0%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM59.0%37.1%21.4%8.3%-145.5%21.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg57.1%35.9%25.3%8.2%-156.9%25.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.7%0.7%-0.2%-0.5%-37.5%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM43.8%28.8%11.5%6.8%-156.1%11.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg43.5%28.7%18.4%5.1%-196.6%18.4%
FCF/Rev LTM43.1%25.3%8.9%5.3%-158.2%8.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg42.7%24.9%16.4%3.0%-210.9%16.4%

Valuation

MOPMTPBUVVXXIIMedian
NameAltria Philip M.Turning .Universal22nd Cen. 
Mkt Cap97.8242.21.81.30.01.8
P/S4.86.14.20.40.04.2
P/EBIT8.315.818.25.3-0.08.3
P/E11.128.134.911.9-0.011.9
P/CFO11.021.036.46.6-0.011.0
Total Yield16.0%7.0%3.2%14.4%-134,022.4%7.0%
Dividend Yield7.0%3.5%0.3%6.0%0.0%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.8%4.9%7.8%6.7%-5,876.7%6.7%
D/E0.30.20.20.9453.30.3
Net D/E0.20.20.10.8195.80.2

Returns

MOPMTPBUVVXXIIMedian
NameAltria Philip M.Turning .Universal22nd Cen. 
1M Rtn-10.6%-2.5%11.7%1.3%-31.2%-2.5%
3M Rtn-9.9%-5.3%0.4%0.9%-58.8%-5.3%
6M Rtn6.5%-3.6%40.7%-0.7%-95.8%-0.7%
12M Rtn14.4%29.9%83.0%7.0%-99.6%14.4%
3Y Rtn66.5%89.7%379.2%15.1%-100.0%66.5%
1M Excs Rtn-14.3%-5.3%6.9%-3.2%-32.6%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-15.9%-10.9%-5.0%-3.7%-60.1%-10.9%
6M Excs Rtn-9.7%-19.8%24.4%-17.0%-112.1%-17.0%
12M Excs Rtn1.0%13.6%80.4%-7.6%-114.0%1.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-18.9%17.2%276.8%-62.5%-180.0%-18.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Smokeable products21,75622,47622,86623,08921,996
Oral tobacco products2,6672,5802,6082,5332,367
All other604045-8358
Wine 0494614689
Total24,48325,09626,01326,15325,110


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Smokeable products10,67010,68810,3949,9859,009
Oral tobacco products1,7221,6321,6591,7181,580
All other-74-36-97-172-16
Amortization of intangibles-128-73-72-72-44
General corporate expenses-643-292-345-227-199
Wine 021-360-3
Corporate asset impairment and exit costs   1-1
Total11,54711,91911,56010,87310,326


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity38,667,759
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520258.6%
Average Daily Volume9,015,106
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.29
Basic Shares Quantity1,684,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-7.8%-7.8% 
7/30/20253.6%5.3%11.9%
4/29/20251.0%2.9%2.2%
1/30/2025-2.1%-0.2%6.1%
10/31/20247.8%7.5%14.3%
7/31/2024-3.0%-2.1%5.3%
4/25/20241.4%2.1%6.3%
2/1/20244.0%0.3%1.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121215
# Negative12129
Median Positive1.9%2.3%4.3%
Median Negative-2.6%-3.0%-3.4%
Max Positive7.8%7.5%14.3%
Max Negative-8.3%-11.7%-19.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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