Brown-Forman (BF-B)
Market Price (5/9/2026): $27.675 | Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners
Brown-Forman (BF-B)
Market Price (5/9/2026): $27.675Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Distillers & Vintners
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.7% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Fiscal Q3 2026 Results and Cautious Management Outlook led to initial share pressure. Brown-Forman reported its third quarter and nine months ended January 31, 2026, financial results on March 4, 2026. Despite exceeding analysts' consensus estimates with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58 (vs. $0.47 consensus) and revenue of $1.06 billion (beating estimates by 5.64%), the stock experienced a notable decline of 8.99% on the reporting day to $25.60. This negative market reaction was largely attributed to management's reaffirmed full-year guidance which highlighted a "challenging operating environment," macroeconomic headwinds, and consumer uncertainty, particularly within the spirits industry, including slower premiumization and softened U.S. whiskey demand. Year-to-date fiscal 2026 reported net sales decreased 2% (flat organically), and diluted EPS decreased 8% to $1.41.
2. Failed Merger Discussions with Pernod Ricard and subsequent analyst downgrades dampened positive momentum. The stock saw a significant surge, jumping 14% on April 9, 2026, following reports that Brown-Forman was in discussions regarding a potential business combination with Pernod Ricard, and separately, interest from Sazerac Company with an offer equating to $32 per share. However, this positive catalyst was short-lived. On April 28, 2026, both Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard announced the termination of their merger discussions due to an inability to reach mutually agreeable terms, causing BF-B shares to fall by 10% on the day. The following day, April 29, 2026, the stock further declined by 10.31% after JPMorgan downgraded its rating from Neutral to Underweight and cut its price target from $27 to $23, citing the absence of an M&A catalyst and a shrinking spirits market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.1% change in BF-B stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.12 | 27.68 | 2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,889 | 3,910 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.8% | 20.6% | -0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.8 | 15.9 | 0.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 472 | 462 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BF-B | 2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | -9.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | 39.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.4% change in BF-B stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.77 | 27.68 | 3.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,948 | 3,910 | -1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.4% | 20.6% | -3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.0 | 15.9 | 5.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 473 | 462 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BF-B | 3.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | -5.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 11.9% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.9% change in BF-B stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.71 | 27.68 | -17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,045 | 3,910 | -3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.4% | 20.6% | -15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 15.9 | -1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 473 | 462 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BF-B | -17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 8.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.7% | 41.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.5% change in BF-B stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.81 | 27.68 | -54.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,178 | 3,910 | -6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.4% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.1 | 15.9 | -60.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 479 | 462 | 3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BF-B | -54.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 21.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.0% | 44.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BF-B Return | -6% | -9% | -12% | -32% | -29% | 6% | -62% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -0% | 6% | -21% | -31% | -3% | -36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BF-B Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 56% | 46% | 42% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BF-B Max Drawdown | -15% | -15% | -19% | -33% | -31% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -17% | -11% | -28% | -36% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STZ, TAP, SAM, MGPI. See BF-B Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BF-B | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 373 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Brown-Forman's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BF-B | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 373 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Brown-Forman's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Brown-Forman (BF-B)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Brown-Forman is like Coca-Cola, but for spirits and wines.
- Brown-Forman is like the Anheuser-Busch InBev of hard liquor.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Spirits (Whiskey, Tequila, Vodka, Brandy, Liqueurs): A broad portfolio encompassing whiskies (e.g., Jack Daniel's), tequilas (e.g., Herradura), vodkas (e.g., Finlandia), brandy, and various other liqueurs.
- Wines & Champagnes: This includes premium wines such as Sonoma-Cutrer and sparkling wines like Korbel Champagne.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Products: Pre-mixed alcoholic beverages and cocktails designed for convenience, often featuring their established spirits brands.
- Contract Bottling Services: The company provides bottling services for other businesses in the beverage industry.
- Bulk Alcohol & Used Barrel Sales: They sell bulk quantities of whiskey and wine, as well as used barrels generated during their distilling process.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Brown-Forman (BF-B) primarily sells its alcoholic beverages to other companies and government entities, rather than directly to individual consumers. The provided background information does not identify specific major customer companies by name or public symbols. Instead, its major customers can be categorized as:
- Distributors and Wholesalers: These are intermediary businesses responsible for distributing Brown-Forman's wide range of products to retail outlets. In many markets, particularly within the United States, this tiered distribution system is a legal requirement.
- Retailers: In markets where direct sales are permissible, Brown-Forman directly serves various retail customers. This category includes liquor stores, grocery chains, bars, restaurants, and other establishments that sell alcoholic beverages to consumers.
- Government Entities: In jurisdictions known as "control states" or "control provinces" (both in the U.S. and internationally), state or provincial governments play a direct role as the primary purchaser and/or distributor of alcoholic beverages.
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Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer
Lawson Whiting has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Brown-Forman Corporation since January 1, 2019, and has been a member of the Executive Leadership Team since 2013. He began his career at Brown-Forman in 1997 in the corporate development group. Over his tenure, he held various positions including director of investor relations, director of finance for wines, director of global business strategy for the Jack Daniel's family of brands, and director of finance for the North America region. He was also senior vice president and managing director of Western Europe and chief brands officer. Prior to his CEO role, Whiting served as executive vice president and chief operating officer, overseeing regional operations, global production, and corporate responsibility. He also serves on the board of directors for Keurig Dr Pepper.
Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Leanne Cunningham, who is set to retire on May 1, 2026, has been the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Brown-Forman since July 2021, joining the Executive Leadership Team in the same year. She started at Brown-Forman in 1995 as a corporate accountant and has spent more than three decades with the company, progressing through roles in accounting, finance, corporate strategy, and production operations. Before becoming CFO, she held positions as senior vice president, shareholder relations officer, commercial finance, and financial planning and analysis. Cunningham also led production operations across 13 countries and played a key role in the acquisition and integration of BenRiach Distillery Company and the start-ups of Slane and Old Forester Distillery. She has served on the Board of Directors for Acushnet Holdings Corp. since 2023.
Jeremy Shepherd, Executive Vice President, Chief Marketing Officer
Jeremy Shepherd is the Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer. He began his career at Brown-Forman in 2005 as a commercial manager for Canada. Over his more than 20-year career with the company, he has held various commercial and marketing leadership roles in New York City, Louisville, and London. Prior to his current role as Chief Marketing Officer, Shepherd led the company's USA & Canada commercial division, and also served as vice president, general manager for the United Kingdom and Ireland, where he established Brown-Forman's own distribution organization. Before joining Brown-Forman, he worked in marketing and commercial roles for Coca-Cola Enterprises and Bacardi Canada.
Tim Nall, Executive Vice President, Chief Global Supply Chain and Technology Officer
Tim Nall serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Global Supply Chain and Technology Officer. In this role, he is responsible for global production operations, global supply chain, research and development, quality assurance, external manufacturing, and all aspects of the company's information technology infrastructure, including advanced analytics, applications, and cybersecurity. Nall joined Brown-Forman in 2000 in bottling and production operations and has served as Chief Information Officer since 2015.
Chris Graven, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer
Chris Graven is the Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer. Further detailed background information on Chris Graven was not readily available in the provided search results beyond his title and inclusion in the Executive Leadership Team.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Brown-Forman's business include declining alcohol consumption and shifting consumer preferences, the impact of climate change on raw materials and water availability, and market concentration risks coupled with international trade and currency fluctuations.
Declining Alcohol Consumption and Shifting Consumer Preferences
A significant risk for Brown-Forman is the ongoing decline in alcohol consumption, particularly among younger generations like Millennials and Gen Z. This trend is driven by increased health consciousness, the rise of the "sober-curious" movement, and evolving social norms. Recent data indicates a marked decrease in the percentage of Americans who drink alcohol, impacting overall sales volumes across various beverage categories, including spirits. The emergence of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy is also cited as a new challenge to the alcohol industry. This fundamental shift in consumer behavior directly affects Brown-Forman's domestic sales performance.
Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Raw Material Availability
As a manufacturer of alcoholic beverages, Brown-Forman is highly dependent on agricultural raw materials such as grains and grapes, and substantial water resources for production. Climate change presents a significant threat through increased water scarcity, more volatile and frequent extreme weather events, and their subsequent impact on crop yields and quality. Distilleries, including those operated by Brown-Forman, require large volumes of water for production. The increasing severity and frequency of these environmental challenges can constrain supply chains and production capacity, posing an existential risk to the alcoholic beverage industry.
Market Concentration in Whiskey, International Trade Risks, and Currency Fluctuations
Brown-Forman faces a concentration risk due to its heavy reliance on the whiskey category, which generates a substantial portion of its revenue (71%). Any significant shift in consumer preferences away from whiskey could disproportionately impact the company's financial performance. Furthermore, as a global company, Brown-Forman is exposed to risks associated with international trade, including tariffs and fluctuating foreign currency exchange rates. Tariffs on imported and exported alcohol products can significantly affect international sales and profitability, while currency fluctuations can impact the value of international sales and earnings.
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The rapidly growing market for sophisticated non-alcoholic beverages, offering consumers an alternative to traditional alcoholic drinks for social occasions and health-conscious choices, which could divert market share from Brown-Forman's core alcoholic product portfolio.
The expanding legalization and market penetration of cannabis-infused beverages, which provide an alternative recreational experience and directly compete for occasions traditionally served by alcoholic beverages, potentially eroding sales for Brown-Forman's products.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Brown-Forman's main products and services for 2025:
- Spirits: The global spirits market was valued at USD 641.53 billion in 2025.
- Whiskey:
- Globally, the whiskey market size was USD 92.89 billion in 2025.
- In the U.S., the whiskey market was valued at USD 26.27 billion in 2025.
- Tequila:
- The global tequila market size was estimated at USD 25.37 billion in 2025.
- The North America tequila market was valued at USD 7.76 billion in 2025.
- Vodka:
- The global vodka market size was valued at USD 30.51 billion in 2025.
- The North America vodka market, representing 34% of the global market, was approximately USD 10.37 billion in 2025.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Cocktails:
- The global ready-to-drink cocktails market size was estimated at USD 11.13 billion in 2025.
- The North America ready-to-drink cocktails market, which held the largest global share (over 32.5%), was approximately USD 3.62 billion in 2025.
- Wine:
- The U.S. wine market was valued at USD 78.73 billion in 2025.
- Champagne:
- The global champagne market size was valued at USD 27.29 billion in 2025.
- The U.S. champagne market was valued at approximately USD 2.40 billion in 2025.
- Brandy (Cognac & Brandy):
- The global cognac & brandy market size was estimated at USD 14.78 billion in 2025.
- The North America cognac & brandy market was valued at USD 5.05 billion in 2025.
- Liqueurs: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:
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Premiumization of its Portfolio: Brown-Forman is strategically shifting its capital and focus towards higher-margin premium and super-premium brands. This includes leveraging iconic brands such as Jack Daniel's and Woodford Reserve, as well as integrating super-premium acquisitions like Gin Mare and Diplomático to elevate its product offerings.
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Expansion of the Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Portfolio: The global rollout and continued innovation of the Jack Daniel's & Coca-Cola RTD product are anticipated to be significant growth drivers, particularly with prioritized launches and flavor/format innovation in Latin America and Asia Pacific. New product introductions, such as Jack Daniel's Tennessee Blackberry, are also contributing to growth in developed markets.
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Growth in Emerging Markets and Travel Retail: The company is actively expanding its footprint and market share in emerging international markets, demonstrating strong performance and consumer demand in regions like Mexico, Brazil, Türkiye, the Middle East, and India. The Travel Retail channel is also a key area of focus for sustained growth.
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Enhanced Distribution Strategies: Brown-Forman has undertaken significant enhancements to its distribution framework, including a major U.S. distribution restructuring effective August 2025. This initiative aims to boost brand reach, optimize investment, and accelerate market momentum.
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Operational Efficiencies and Strategic Reinvestment: While not a direct revenue driver, the company's organizational restructuring, workforce reduction, and closure of the Louisville Cooperage are projected to generate substantial annualized cost savings. A portion of these savings is expected to be reinvested to accelerate growth, supporting brand-building and other strategic initiatives.
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Share Repurchases
- Brown-Forman completed a $400 million share repurchase program in December 2023 during fiscal year 2024.
- On October 2, 2025, the Board of Directors authorized a new $400 million share repurchase program, which was completed in December 2025 during fiscal year 2026.
Share Issuance
- Brown-Forman's shares outstanding have shown a declining trend over the last few fiscal years, with a 0.89% decline in 2025 from 2024, a 0.68% decline in 2024 from 2023, and a 0.02% decline in 2023 from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- The company acquired the Diplomático rum brand in October 2022 for $725 million.
- In fiscal year 2024, Brown-Forman recorded a gain of $267 million from the divestitures of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer.
- Brown-Forman received $350 million in cash for its 21.4% ownership interest in The Duckhorn Portfolio Inc. during fiscal year 2025, recognizing a $78 million pretax gain.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures averaged $155.6 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025, peaking at $228 million in fiscal year 2024 and decreasing to $167 million in fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures were estimated to be between $195 million and $205 million.
- Brown-Forman plans capital expenditures in the range of $110 million to $120 million for fiscal year 2026, focusing on strategic initiatives such as U.S. distribution evolution, restructuring, and new product innovation to drive future growth and advance its premiumization strategy.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| Rev LTM | 3,910 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,156 |
| FCF LTM | 730 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 547 |
| CFO LTM | 861 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 728 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -14.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.4 |
| P/E | -1.8 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | -3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -51.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -116.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.68 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.42 | $27.58 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.8% | 0.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.1% | 42.2% |
| Downside Capture | -0.05 | 0.26 |
| Upside Capture | -31.86 | 12.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -6.7% | 8.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.46 | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.14 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Up Beta | -0.33 | -0.26 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| Down Beta | -0.31 | -1.80 | -0.85 | -1.10 | -0.31 | 0.36 |
| Up Capture | 56% | 12% | -22% | 8% | 10% | 5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 31 | 61 | 120 | 358 |
| Down Capture | 344% | 45% | -67% | -1% | 59% | 83% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 32 | 63 | 128 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BF-B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF-B | -17.1% | 42.1% | -0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 12.6% | 0.20 | 41.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 8.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | -3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 31.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.9% | 42.1% | -0.35 | -1.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BF-B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF-B | -17.0% | 29.8% | -0.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.5% | 13.2% | 0.27 | 50.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 41.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 6.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BF-B | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BF-B | -1.5% | 27.9% | -0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.7% | 14.7% | 0.39 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 45.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 46.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 9.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/4/2026 | -6.6% | -8.9% | -4.9% |
| 12/4/2025 | -1.3% | 1.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/28/2025 | -4.9% | -6.7% | -10.3% |
| 6/5/2025 | -17.9% | -16.5% | -13.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | 10.1% | 10.9% | 6.2% |
| 12/5/2024 | 10.7% | 10.3% | -9.7% |
| 8/29/2024 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 8.3% |
| 6/5/2024 | -5.9% | -5.1% | -6.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| # Negative | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -5.5% | -7.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -16.5% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/17/2022 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | -3.0% | 20.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Organic Operating Income Growth | -3.0% | 20.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 115.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 19.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% | -9.1% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | -2.5% | 25.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Organic Operating Income Growth | -2.5% | 25.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: -2.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | -11.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 130.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whiting, Lawson E | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 31.01 | 25,915 | 803,624 | 217,628 | Form |
| 2 | Whiting, Lawson E | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 31.00 | 8,834 | 273,854 | 1,020,923 | Form |
| 3 | Whiting, Lawson E | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 31.01 | 7,746 | 240,203 | 1,295,195 | Form |
| 4 | Whiting, Lawson E | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 31.00 | 4,785 | 148,335 | 62 | Form |
| 5 | Whiting, Lawson E | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 31.00 | 23,641 | 732,871 | 148,397 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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