Tearsheet

Mondelez International (MDLZ)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.825 | Market Cap: $69.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Mondelez International (MDLZ)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.825
Market Cap: $69.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
Key risks
MDLZ key risks include [1] unprecedented surges in commodity costs, Show more.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Consumption, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
5 Key risks
MDLZ key risks include [1] unprecedented surges in commodity costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDLZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Elevated Raw Material Costs and Supply Chain Disruptions.
Mondelez International faced significant headwinds from record-high cocoa prices, which pressured its margins. In October 2025, the company stated that higher raw material and transportation costs broadly hurt its bottom line. While there were signs of moderation in cocoa prices and promising cocoa crop forecasts, challenging conditions were anticipated to continue in some markets. These rising input costs impacted profitability, leading to a decrease in adjusted gross profit margin. The company also experienced supply chain disruptions in key markets, raising concerns about cost pressures.

2. Revised Financial Guidance and Earnings Outlook.
In October 2025, Mondelez International pulled back its 2025 guidance, projecting organic revenue to rise 4% for the year, down from a previous estimate of 5%. Furthermore, adjusted earnings were expected to decline 15% on a constant currency basis, a larger drop than the previously projected 10%. This tempered outlook signaled a more challenging financial environment than initially anticipated, impacting investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDLZ Return9%16%3%11%-15%-8%13%
Peers Return8%17%18%-12%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDLZ Win Rate58%50%42%42%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%57%58%45%47%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDLZ Max Drawdown-24%-9%-16%-7%-17%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-8%-6%-21%-7%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PEP, HSY, GIS, K, KHC. See MDLZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMDLZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven371 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven284 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-42.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,020 days1,480 days

Compare to HSY, KHC, GIS, MKC, HRL


In The Past

Mondelez International's stock fell -22.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/11/2023. A -22.1% loss requires a 28.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Mondelez International (MDLZ)

Better Bets than Mondelez International (MDLZ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDLZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Mondelez International

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDLZPEPHSYGISKKHCMedian
NameMondelez.PepsiCo Hershey General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Mkt Price53.82150.08188.9448.61-24.7553.82
Mkt Cap69.6205.538.326.129.029.333.8
Rev LTM37,64592,36611,29518,77712,64325,16421,970
Op Inc LTM4,33412,1932,1552,9121,8554,8953,623
FCF LTM2,2906,7881,5791,7836503,6312,036
FCF 3Y Avg3,1566,6451,5392,3008953,0472,673
CFO LTM3,57611,7552,1462,3601,3054,4742,968
CFO 3Y Avg4,37811,9742,1933,0051,5124,0663,536

Growth & Margins

MDLZPEPHSYGISKKHCMedian
NameMondelez.PepsiCo Hershey General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Rev Chg LTM4.1%0.5%2.5%-5.7%-1.4%-3.7%-0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.5%3.4%5.2%-0.9%1.5%-0.8%2.5%
Rev Chg Q5.9%2.7%26.0%-7.2%0.3%-2.3%1.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.5%0.7%5.0%-2.0%0.1%-0.6%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM11.5%13.2%19.1%15.5%14.7%19.5%15.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.5%13.8%21.6%17.1%12.1%19.6%15.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-0.3%-1.9%-0.9%-0.4%-0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%12.7%19.0%12.6%10.3%17.8%12.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.1%13.0%19.8%15.3%12.2%15.6%14.1%
FCF/Rev LTM6.1%7.3%14.0%9.5%5.1%14.4%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%7.2%13.9%11.7%7.2%11.7%10.2%

Valuation

MDLZPEPHSYGISKKHCMedian
NameMondelez.PepsiCo Hershey General .KellanovaKraft He. 
Mkt Cap69.6205.538.326.129.029.333.8
P/S2.12.13.41.42.31.22.1
P/EBIT18.919.019.99.015.1-5.517.0
P/E22.926.624.810.321.3-7.122.1
P/CFO22.616.417.711.021.86.917.0
Total Yield7.4%7.7%6.9%14.8%7.5%-8.0%7.4%
Dividend Yield3.1%3.9%2.9%5.1%2.8%6.2%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.4%3.1%3.9%6.5%3.6%8.3%3.8%
D/E0.30.00.20.50.20.70.2
Net D/E0.30.00.10.50.20.60.2

Returns

MDLZPEPHSYGISKKHCMedian
NameMondelez.PepsiCo Hershey General .KellanovaKraft He. 
1M Rtn-3.1%2.5%5.6%3.5%-2.7%2.7%
3M Rtn-13.7%7.3%-0.4%0.1%--2.3%-0.4%
6M Rtn-17.7%18.6%13.0%-5.9%--0.7%-0.7%
12M Rtn-9.6%-0.0%9.9%-22.9%--16.1%-9.6%
3Y Rtn-12.1%-8.1%-13.4%-37.6%--28.0%-13.4%
1M Excs Rtn-3.9%1.8%4.8%2.8%-1.9%1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-15.6%6.3%-0.7%-2.6%--4.9%-2.6%
6M Excs Rtn-30.0%6.2%0.7%-18.3%--13.0%-13.0%
12M Excs Rtn-21.5%-12.3%-4.5%-34.9%--28.3%-21.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-82.1%-78.4%-83.3%-105.9%--97.1%-83.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Biscuits & Baked Snacks17,62915,60813,552  
Chocolate10,6199,4869,2718,1798,158
Gum & Candy4,4263,4122,8722,6623,355
Cheese & Grocery2,1571,8901,9901,9251,822
Beverages1,1851,1001,0351,0491,095
Biscuits   12,76611,438
Total36,01631,49628,72026,58125,868


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity34,814,448
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202512.9%
Average Daily Volume8,605,894
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.05
Basic Shares Quantity1,293,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-3.9%-6.9%-5.0%
7/29/2025-6.6%-10.6%-11.4%
4/29/20253.8%2.8%2.8%
2/4/20252.3%7.7%19.0%
10/29/20240.9%-0.1%-5.9%
7/30/20241.9%2.1%6.3%
4/30/2024-1.7%-1.5%-5.6%
1/30/2024-1.4%-1.4%-4.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161411
# Negative81013
Median Positive1.9%3.1%6.0%
Median Negative-2.3%-1.6%-4.3%
Max Positive7.8%7.7%19.0%
Max Negative-6.6%-10.6%-11.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024205202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Packaged Foods & Meats Resources
USDA Data