Performance Food (PFGC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $92.98 | Market Cap: $14.5 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Distributors
Performance Food (PFGC)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $92.98Market Cap: $14.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PFGC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Performance Food (PFGC) stock moved by -8.3% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Q1 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Disappointment Despite Beat: On November 5, 2025, Performance Food Group reported stronger-than-expected Q1 fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share and revenue. However, its net income decreased by 13.3%, primarily due to a 15.7% increase in operating expenses (driven by recent acquisitions, higher personnel expenses, and legal fees) and increased interest expenses. This led to the stock falling over 2% in pre-market trading despite the top-line beat.
2. Termination of US Foods Merger Discussions: On November 24, 2025, Performance Food Group and US Foods mutually agreed to terminate discussions regarding a potential business combination. While PFG's board reaffirmed its standalone strategic plan, the lack of a positive market reaction for PFGC, contrasted with an approximate 8% rise in US Foods shares, suggested that investors might have viewed the potential merger with skepticism regarding its benefits or integration risks for PFG, thus missing a potential catalyst for the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PFGC Return | -8% | -4% | 27% | 18% | 22% | 10% | 81% |
| Peers Return | -9% | 52% | -15% | -1% | 30% | 8% | 65% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PFGC Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 52% | 43% | 52% | 60% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PFGC Max Drawdown | -78% | -18% | -15% | -9% | -11% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -68% | -10% | -28% | -29% | -21% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYY, USFD, CHEF, UNFI, HFFG. See PFGC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PFGC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 120 days |
Compare to SYY, USFD, CHEF, UNFI, HFFG
In The Past
Performance Food's stock fell -35.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -35.0% loss requires a 53.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PFGC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 03312020 | PFGC | Performance Food | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 39.6% | 133.1% | -13.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 03312020 | PFGC | Performance Food | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 39.6% | 133.1% | -13.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Performance Food
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 35,450 |
| Op Inc LTM | 487 |
| FCF LTM | 381 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 330 |
| CFO LTM | 741 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 682 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-K 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-K 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8162023 | 10-K 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8192022 | 10-K 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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