JM Smucker (SJM)
Market Price (9/29/2026): $119.395 | Market Cap: $12.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
JM Smucker (SJM)
Market Price (9/29/2026): $119.395Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 12% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x Key risksSJM key risks include [1] significant margin pressure driven by coffee cost inflation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x |
| Key risksSJM key risks include [1] significant margin pressure driven by coffee cost inflation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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JM Smucker (SJM) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings Performance and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook.
The J.M. Smucker Co. reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.24 for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended July 31, 2026), significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.22 by 45.95%. Net sales for the quarter rose 5% to $2.22 billion, surpassing forecasts by 3.8%. Following these strong results, management raised its full-year fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $10.50 to $11.00, up from the prior range of $9.75 to $10.25, and improved its net sales outlook to a decline of 1.0% to 2.0% from the previous expectation of a 3.0% to 4.0% decrease. The stock surged approximately 12% immediately after this announcement.
2. Significant Benefit from Tariff Refunds and Expanded Profit Margins.
The strong fiscal Q1 2027 adjusted EPS included a substantial $0.84 per share benefit from tariff refunds, which contributed to a 71% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. This inflow notably expanded adjusted gross profit margins by 760 basis points to 42.8% and adjusted operating margins by 690 basis points to 24.4%. The company anticipates a net benefit of approximately $0.60 per share from tariff refunds for the full fiscal year 2027, even after planned strategic reinvestments.
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JM Smucker (SJM) stock has gained about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings Performance and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook.
The J.M. Smucker Co. reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.24 for fiscal Q1 2027 (ended July 31, 2026), significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.22 by 45.95%. Net sales for the quarter rose 5% to $2.22 billion, surpassing forecasts by 3.8%. Following these strong results, management raised its full-year fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $10.50 to $11.00, up from the prior range of $9.75 to $10.25, and improved its net sales outlook to a decline of 1.0% to 2.0% from the previous expectation of a 3.0% to 4.0% decrease. The stock surged approximately 12% immediately after this announcement.
2. Significant Benefit from Tariff Refunds and Expanded Profit Margins.
The strong fiscal Q1 2027 adjusted EPS included a substantial $0.84 per share benefit from tariff refunds, which contributed to a 71% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. This inflow notably expanded adjusted gross profit margins by 760 basis points to 42.8% and adjusted operating margins by 690 basis points to 24.4%. The company anticipates a net benefit of approximately $0.60 per share from tariff refunds for the full fiscal year 2027, even after planned strategic reinvestments.
3. Accelerated Debt Reduction and Enhanced Capital Allocation.
J.M. Smucker achieved its 3x leverage target in fiscal Q1 2027, ahead of its scheduled timeline. This financial strength has led to plans for $500 million in debt reduction and the consideration of future share repurchases. Concurrently, the company increased its quarterly dividend to $1.12 per share, representing a 3.6% annualized yield, and raised its full-year fiscal 2027 free cash flow guidance to $1.1 billion from the previous estimate of $1.0 billion.
4. Sustained Momentum in Core Growth Categories.
Key company-specific brands demonstrated strong performance, contributing to positive organic growth. The "Uncrustables" brand saw its growth outlook raised to high single digits for the full fiscal year 2027, after achieving 12% sales growth in fiscal Q1 2027. Additionally, the "Café Bustelo" coffee brand recorded a significant 23% sales growth in fiscal Q1 2027, and the "Milk-Bone" pet snack brand returned to volume growth. These successes in strategic categories signal continued demand and market penetration for the company's leading products.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.0% change in SJM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.24 | 120.63 | 18.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,927 | 9,157 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.4 | 15.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | 18.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | -25.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | -0.1% | 65.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.2% change in SJM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.61 | 120.63 | 6.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,927 | 9,157 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | 6.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.2% | -13.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | -7.4% | 58.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.7% change in SJM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 106.14 | 120.63 | 13.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,714 | 9,157 | 5.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.4 | 8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | 13.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | -12.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.7% | 53.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in SJM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 129.02 | 120.63 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,461 | 9,157 | 8.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 1.4 | -9.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 102 | 107 | -4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SJM | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.5% | 4.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.7% | 52.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SJM Return | 21% | 21% | -18% | -10% | -8% | 28% | 28% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 12% | -13% | -5% | -20% | -7% | -24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SJM Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 78% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 58% | 42% | 47% | 37% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SJM Max Drawdown | -14% | -16% | -32% | -18% | -20% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -18% | -29% | -19% | -28% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GIS, KHC, MDLZ, CAG, HRL. See SJM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SJM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -12.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 792 days | 47 days |
In The Past
JM Smucker's stock fell -7.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | SJM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
JM Smucker's stock fell -7.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 8.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About JM Smucker (SJM)
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is a global manufacturer and marketer of a wide array of branded food and beverage products. The company primarily focuses on staple consumer goods, operating across four main segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and an International and Away From Home division. This diversified portfolio allows Smucker to maintain a significant presence in everyday household consumption.
Smucker's product offerings include several highly recognized brands across multiple categories. In coffee, it offers mainstream and premium options such as Folgers, Café Bustelo, and Dunkin' Donuts. Its consumer foods segment is known for Jif peanut butter, Smucker's fruit spreads, Crisco oils, and Smucker's Uncrustables frozen sandwiches. A substantial portion of its business is also dedicated to pet food and snacks, with popular brands like Meow Mix, Kibbles ‘n Bits, Milk-Bone, and Rachael Ray Nutrish. The company also supplies foodservice hot beverages, portion control products, and flour under brands like Robin Hood and Five Roses.
The company serves a broad customer base through extensive distribution channels. Its products are sold to various retail outlets globally, including food retailers, wholesalers, club stores, pet specialty stores, mass merchandisers, discount stores, drug stores, and online retailers. Additionally, Smucker's "Away From Home" segment caters to foodservice distributors and operators, ensuring its brands are available not only in homes but also in commercial and institutional settings worldwide.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe JM Smucker (SJM):
- Like General Mills, but with a stronger focus on coffee, spreads, and pet food.
- Essentially, the company behind many of your pantry staples, similar to a Kraft Heinz, but specializing in popular brands like Jif peanut butter, Smucker's jams, and Folgers coffee.
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- Coffee Products: The company offers a variety of mainstream, premium, roast, ground, and single-serve coffee under brands like Folgers, Café Bustelo, and Dunkin' Donuts.
- Peanut Butter and Specialty Spreads: This category includes popular peanut butter (Jif) and specialty spreads, as well as fruit spreads (Smucker's).
- Pet Food and Snacks: JM Smucker manufactures a diverse range of dog and cat food and snacks, featuring brands such as Meow Mix, Kibbles ‘n Bits, Milk-Bone, and Rachael Ray Nutrish.
- Baking and Cooking Ingredients: Products like shortening and oils (Crisco), along with flour products (Robin Hood, Five Roses), are provided for baking and cooking needs.
- Frozen Handheld Products: This segment includes convenient frozen sandwiches like Smucker's Uncrustables, among other frozen handheld food items.
- Foodservice & Away From Home Products: JM Smucker supplies hot beverages, portion control items, and flour products to foodservice distributors and operators.
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The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) sells its branded food and beverage products primarily to other companies, who then distribute or sell them to end consumers. Its major customers are large retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice distributors across various channels. Based on the company description, these include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT) - A leading food retailer, mass merchandiser, and operator of club stores (Sam's Club).
- The Kroger Co. (KR) - One of the largest traditional grocery retailers in the United States.
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) - A major membership-only warehouse club operator.
- Target Corporation (TGT) - A prominent mass merchandiser.
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - A dominant online retailer and owner of natural foods stores (Whole Foods Market).
- Sysco Corporation (SYY) - A leading global foodservice distribution company.
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Mark Smucker - Chief Executive Officer, President and Chair of the Board
Mark Smucker is the fifth-generation leader of The J. M. Smucker Company, having joined the company in 1997. He assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in 2016, succeeding his father and uncle. Throughout his tenure at Smucker's, he has held various leadership positions, including President of the U.S. Consumer and Natural Foods divisions and the Coffee division. Under his leadership, the company has undertaken strategic expansions, including acquisitions in pet snacks, coffee, and baked goods, such as Hostess Brands. Before joining the family business, Mark worked as a middle school science teacher and in advertising. He holds a bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary and an MBA from the Thunderbird School of Global Management.
Tucker Marshall - Chief Financial Officer | Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks
Tucker Marshall joined The J. M. Smucker Company in 2012 and was promoted to Chief Financial Officer in 2020. In February 2026, his role expanded to include Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks. Prior to his time at Smucker, Mr. Marshall gained leadership experience in investment banking and private equity with Bank of America and The Reserve Group. He was instrumental in establishing the company's Corporate Financial Planning & Analysis department. He earned a bachelor's degree in economics from Gettysburg College and an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Jill Penrose - Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff
Jill Penrose was promoted to Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff in February 2026. Previously, she served as the Chief People and Company Services Officer. She plays a key role as an executive officer within the company.
Robert D. Ferguson - Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away-from-Home
Robert D. Ferguson, also known as Rob, was elected as an executive officer and assumed the role of Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away-from-Home, effective February 9, 2026. He has extensive experience within the company.
Jeannette L. Knudsen - Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Jeannette L. Knudsen serves as the Chief Legal Officer and Secretary of The J. M. Smucker Company. She oversees the company's Legal, Regulatory, Compliance, and Risk Management functions. Ms. Knudsen previously held the title of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
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- Hostess Brands Acquisition and Integration Challenges: The 2023 acquisition of Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion has become a significant risk. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has substantially underperformed expectations, leading to considerable impairment charges totaling nearly $1 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025. Analysts have raised concerns about Smucker potentially overpaying for the acquisition and the ability to achieve the targeted $150 million in synergies. The company's leverage also increased due to the acquisition, leading to a negative outlook from S&P Global Ratings if debt reduction targets are not met.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences: A fundamental, long-term threat to Smucker's business is the persistent shift in consumer preferences toward fresh and less-processed foods. This trend challenges the company's core portfolio of packaged goods and has been a factor in the underperformance of the sweet baked goods segment. Changes in consumer behavior, influenced by factors like digital transformation, e-commerce, and increased interest in "better-for-you" options, require the company to continuously adapt its marketing and product offerings.
- Commodity Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: The company is exposed to significant risks from commodity price volatility and disruptions in its supply chain. Materially higher costs for ingredients, packaging, transportation, and labor, driven by inflationary pressures, have impacted profitability and necessitated price increases. The effectiveness of measures taken to mitigate these costs, such as derivatives and pricing actions, is crucial for maintaining financial performance.
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The addressable markets for J. M. Smucker's main products and services are sizable, with varying regional strengths:
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Pet Food: The global pet food market was valued at approximately USD 136.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 197.5 billion by 2034. North America held over 42.5% of the global pet food market share in 2025. The U.S. pet food market alone was valued at USD 41.59 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 68.33 billion by 2035.
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Peanut Butter: The global peanut butter market was valued at USD 7.75 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 15.50 billion by 2034. North America held the largest market share in the global peanut butter industry. In the U.S., the peanut butter industry is a USD 2 billion market. The U.S. peanut butter market was valued at USD 1.7 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 2.4 billion by 2034.
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Coffee: The global coffee market was valued at USD 176.55 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 238.99 billion by 2031. The U.S. coffee market was valued at USD 23.76 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 31.05 billion by 2031. The U.S. branded coffee shop market alone was valued at USD 58.5 billion in sales in October 2025 and is expected to reach USD 82.4 billion by September 2030.
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Frozen Sandwiches (including Frozen Breakfast Entrees/Sandwiches): The global frozen sandwich market is forecast to reach USD 1597.2 million by 2033. North America currently leads this market. More specifically, the global frozen breakfast entrees/sandwiches market size was estimated at USD 13,750.56 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 26,500.78 million by 2032. North America is the fastest-growing region, and the United States dominates this market with a 19.6% share.
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Fruit Spreads: The global fruit spreads market is estimated to be valued at over USD 15 billion, with projections indicating it will reach an estimated USD 20.15 billion by 2025. North America is a key driver of market growth, projected to account for over 35% of global sales.
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Shortening and Oils (Shortening Fats): The global shortening fats market size was valued at USD 5.10 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 7.83 billion by 2034. The Asia Pacific region dominated the shortening market with an estimated market share of 42% in 2025.
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- Growth of the Uncrustables Brand: The Uncrustables brand is a significant growth engine for Smucker, with annual net sales projected to exceed $1 billion. Growth is expected to be fueled by national advertising campaigns, expanded distribution into new channels such as convenience and away-from-home, and continuous product innovation, including new offerings like peanut butter and raspberry spread sandwiches.
- Expansion and Innovation in the Pet Food and Snacks Category: The Company's pet segment, particularly through its Milk-Bone and Meow Mix brands, is a key focus for growth, with anticipated net sales growth of 3% to 4% for the segment in fiscal year 2026. Strategies include maximizing "everyday treating," engaging new pet owners, and expanding consumption through impulse opportunities and product innovation.
- Strategic Pricing and Brand Building in the Coffee Segment: Smucker's U.S. Retail Coffee segment, especially led by the Café Bustelo brand, is expected to drive revenue through strategic pricing actions and brand-building initiatives. Café Bustelo is a fast-growing brand, with plans to become a top-four brand in the at-home coffee category through increased brand awareness, household penetration, and new product introductions like different roast profiles and a ready-to-drink format.
- Integration and Stabilization of the Hostess Brands Acquisition: The 2024 acquisition of Hostess Brands for $5.6 billion positions Smucker as a leader in the U.S. sweet baked goods category. Future revenue growth is anticipated from strengthening the Hostess portfolio, which includes prioritizing high-return sub-brands like Donettes and implementing SKU rationalization, as well as realizing approximately $150 million in annual cost synergies by the end of fiscal 2027. The company is focused on stabilizing the brand's performance and returning it to growth.
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Share Repurchases
- The J. M. Smucker Company increased its share buyback authorization by 5 million common shares in October 2021, resulting in approximately 7.8 million common shares available for repurchase under authorizations by its Board of Directors.
- In fiscal year 2024, the company repurchased 2.4 million shares for $362.8 million, with 1.1 million shares remaining under its authorization.
- A long-running share repurchase program totaling approximately $4.31 billion was completed as of December 2025.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for J. M. Smucker increased by 2.11% in fiscal year 2025 to 0.106 billion from 2024.
Outbound Investments
- The J. M. Smucker Company acquired Hostess Brands, Inc., with the acquisition contributing to topline growth in fiscal year 2025 and achieving approximately $75 million in cost synergies in FY2025.
- Divestitures in early 2021 included the Natural Balance premium pet food business and the Crisco oils and shortening business, aimed at focusing resources on pet food, snacking, and coffee categories.
- Further divestitures include the Voortman business and certain Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, expected to close during the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, to support focused resource allocation and reduce manufacturing costs.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal years ending April 2021 to 2025 averaged $436.4 million, peaking at $586.5 million in April 2024.
- For fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures were $394 million, representing 4.5% of net sales, a decrease from the prior year.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are approximately $325.0 million, with a primary focus on growth initiatives such as the new Uncrustables® sandwiches manufacturing facility, and operational investments in supply chain automation and predictive technologies.
Peer Outperformance in Packaged Foods & Meats
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | JM Smucker | 2.7% | 56.1x | 15.0% | 10.3% | 18.3% | — |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | 0.5% | 29.7x | -4.5% | 42.7% | 49.2% | +31pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 6.3% | 47.8% | 58.5% | NGVC 217% · WMT 147% · VLGEA 144% |
| Food Distributors | 8 | 3.8% | 35.0% | 50.9% | CHEF 248% · USFD 158% · ANDE 131% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -6.7% | 46.0% | 25.4% | CASY 225% · SFM 169% · KR 61% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -39.9% | 6.9% | 23.0% | PM 143% · MO 108% · TPB 30% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 12 | -7.5% | -15.5% | 1.7% | COKE 409% · CCHGY 118% · BRFH 102% |
| Brewers | 3 | -15.4% | -36.5% | -9.6% | BUD 44% · TAP -10% · SAM -68% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 12 | 9.1% | 2.2% | -17.0% | BG 54% · ADM 52% · ALCO 23% |
| Household Products | 19 | 4.4% | -6.1% | -17.4% | ACU 111% · IPAR 81% · CL 26% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | 0.6% | -7.3% | -23.5% | ELF 239% · PG 19% · COTY -66% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats ← | 47 | -28.6% | -34.2% | -43.0% | MAMA 448% · LWAY 286% · SENEA 275% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -43.6% | -60.8% | -79.4% | STZ -41% · BF-B -57% · SNDL -79% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -47.0% | -86.3% | -94.3% | HITI -54% · PETS -94% · SCNX -99% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| Rev LTM | 15,222 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,289 |
| FCF LTM | 1,567 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,721 |
| CFO LTM | 1,988 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,236 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -12.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.4 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 14.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 2.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -28.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 3,305 | 2,807 | 2,704 | 2,735 | 2,497 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 1,854 | 1,877 | 1,816 | 1,631 | 1,707 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 1,600 | 1,664 | 1,823 | 3,038 | 2,764 |
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 971 | 1,179 | 637 | 0 | 0 |
| Away From Home | 879 | 763 | 712 | 1,125 | 1,030 |
| Other | 442 | 437 | 487 | ||
| Total | 9,051 | 8,726 | 8,179 | 8,529 | 7,999 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 702 | 795 | 759 | 738 | 737 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 473 | 460 | 402 | 495 | 396 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 445 | 425 | 434 | 353 | 424 |
| Away From Home | 220 | 176 | 137 | 143 | 142 |
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 97 | 220 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 70 | 71 | 71 | ||
| Other special project costs | -21 | -36 | -130 | -5 | -8 |
| Change in net cumulative unallocated derivative gains and losses | -59 | 58 | 7 | -21 | -23 |
| Cost of products sold - special project costs | -66 | -9 | -3 | -6 | -20 |
| Amortization | -211 | -219 | -191 | -207 | -224 |
| Corporate administrative expenses | -328 | -322 | -306 | -313 | -259 |
| Other intangible assets impairment charges | -454 | -321 | -150 | ||
| Goodwill impairment charge | -508 | -1,662 | |||
| Gain (loss) on divestitures - net | -310 | -13 | -1,018 | 10 | |
| Total | 360 | -674 | 1,306 | 158 | 1,024 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Retail Coffee | 4,692 | 4,928 | 4,826 | 4,809 | 4,892 |
| U.S. Retail Pet Foods | 4,624 | 4,679 | 4,784 | 4,994 | 7,167 |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads | 3,237 | 3,263 | 3,257 | 2,973 | 2,692 |
| Sweet Baked Snacks | 2,319 | 3,395 | 6,267 | 0 | 0 |
| Away From Home | 798 | 670 | 624 | 978 | 974 |
| Other | 423 | 367 | 366 | ||
| Unallocated | 126 | 261 | 150 | 1,237 | 330 |
| Total | 16,219 | 17,563 | 20,274 | 14,991 | 16,055 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $120.63 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/31/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $121.88 | $106.65 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.0% | 13.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 28.3% |
| Downside Capture | -17.57 | -49.92 |
| Upside Capture | 11.24 | -24.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -17.6% | -13.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.41 | -0.37 | -0.70 | -0.27 | -0.27 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | -1.52 | -2.23 | -1.22 | -0.28 | -0.23 | 0.26 |
| Down Beta | -0.36 | 0.03 | -0.52 | -0.05 | -0.03 | 0.17 |
| Up Capture | 213% | 79% | 4% | -10% | -11% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 26 | 37 | 59 | 127 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 71% | -43% | -152% | -75% | -92% | -23% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 68 | 123 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | 16.5% | 28.3% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.0% | 14.4% | 0.31 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.4% | 13.0% | 0.96 | -13.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 9.7% | 29.6% | 0.31 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.7% | 20.7% | 1.60 | -10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.6% | 0.06 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.0% | 44.8% | -0.46 | -10.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | 3.4% | 24.9% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.9% | 13.7% | 0.21 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 10.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.9% | 0.77 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 30.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.4% | 52.4% | 0.45 | -2.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SJM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | 2.0% | 24.7% | 0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.36 | 54.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 20.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 1.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.8% | 66.2% | 1.03 | -0.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/26/2026 | 4.3% | 4.8% | -3.0% |
| 6/9/2026 | 10.4% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| 2/26/2026 | 8.8% | 7.6% | -10.8% |
| 11/25/2025 | -3.7% | -3.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 6/10/2025 | -15.6% | -14.7% | -6.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.0% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | 5.7% | 3.2% | -2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 18 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 1.5% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.2% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -14.7% | -12.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/26/2026 | 4.3% | 4.8% | -3.0% |
| 6/9/2026 | 10.4% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| 2/26/2026 | 8.8% | 7.6% | -10.8% |
| 11/25/2025 | -3.7% | -3.7% | -4.8% |
| 8/27/2025 | -4.4% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 6/10/2025 | -15.6% | -14.7% | -6.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.0% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | 5.7% | 3.2% | -2.4% |
| 8/28/2024 | -4.9% | -0.1% | -0.7% |
| 6/6/2024 | 4.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| 2/27/2024 | -2.1% | -2.6% | -1.6% |
| 12/5/2023 | 3.3% | 8.1% | 14.4% |
| 8/29/2023 | 2.1% | 0.1% | -12.2% |
| 6/6/2023 | -1.8% | 1.4% | -0.3% |
| 2/28/2023 | -0.1% | 1.6% | 5.7% |
| 11/21/2022 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| 8/23/2022 | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 6/7/2022 | 5.7% | 3.3% | 7.8% |
| 3/1/2022 | -6.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 11/23/2021 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 8/26/2021 | -2.6% | -3.9% | -6.4% |
| 6/3/2021 | 1.4% | 0.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/25/2021 | 1.6% | 0.7% | 11.9% |
| 11/24/2020 | 1.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 18 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 1.5% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.2% | -2.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -14.7% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 08/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 08/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 08/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2021 | 02/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 08/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/22/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/27/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 8/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | Reported | -2.0% | -1.5% | -1.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: -3.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Effective Income Tax Rate | Reported | 24.2% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.3% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 10.5 | 10.75 | 11 | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 6/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | Reported | -4.0% | -3.5% | -3.0% | -7.2% | Lower New | Actual: 3.75% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 38.0% | ||||||
| 2027 Interest Expense | Reported | 345.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Adjusted Effective Income Tax Rate | Reported | 24.3% | 0.3% | Higher New | Actual: 24.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 9.75 | 10 | 10.25 | 11.1% | Higher New | Actual: 9 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Weighted-average common shares outstanding | Reported | 107.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 2.6% | Higher New | Actual: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales increase vs. prior year | Reported | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted effective income tax rate | Reported | 24.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 23.8% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per share | Reported | 8.75 | 9 | 9.25 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 975.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales increase | Reported | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.04 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted effective income tax rate | Reported | 23.8% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.8% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per share | Reported | 8.75 | 9 | 9.25 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 9 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 975.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 975.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferguson, Robert D | Chief Product Supply Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 132.41 | 2,522 | 333,938 | 4,805,821 | Form |
| 2 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 131.39 | 84,821 | 11,144,631 | 13,321,107 | Form |
| 3 | Marshall, Tucker H | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 132.05 | 18,482 | 2,440,547 | 5,110,200 | Form |
| 4 | Penrose, Jill R | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302026 | 116.69 | 5,000 | 583,475 | 1,843,198 | Form |
| 5 | Knudsen, Jeannette L | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 115.08 | 4,353 | 500,943 | 1,937,372 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferguson, Robert D | Chief Product Supply Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 132.41 | 2,522 | 333,938 | 4,805,821 | Form |
| 2 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 131.39 | 84,821 | 11,144,631 | 13,321,107 | Form |
| 3 | Marshall, Tucker H | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 132.05 | 18,482 | 2,440,547 | 5,110,200 | Form |
| 4 | Penrose, Jill R | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302026 | 116.69 | 5,000 | 583,475 | 1,843,198 | Form |
| 5 | Knudsen, Jeannette L | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6292026 | 115.08 | 4,353 | 500,943 | 1,937,372 | Form |
| 6 | Marshall, Tucker H | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 111.05 | 3,630 | 403,112 | 4,297,524 | Form |
| 7 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 115.11 | 13,000 | 1,496,430 | 9,440,056 | Form |
| 8 | Knudsen, Jeannette L | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 116.29 | 5,550 | 645,410 | 1,865,175 | Form |
| 9 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Trusts FBO Son | Sell | 3112026 | 108.97 | 231 | 25,208 | 1,391,620 | Form |
| 10 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Trusts FBO Daughter | Sell | 3112026 | 108.86 | 231 | 25,183 | 1,390,215 | Form |
| 11 | Amin, Tarang | Direct | Buy | 3032026 | 113.41 | 880 | 99,801 | 533,594 | Form | |
| 12 | Marshall, Tucker H | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 108.11 | 11,139 | 1,204,220 | 3,661,037 | Form |
| 13 | Smucker, Mark T | CEO, Chair of Board | Direct | Sell | 9252025 | 110.00 | 6,500 | 715,000 | 8,447,120 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 29, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
SJM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on strong execution within the core portfolio. The company's coffee and Uncrustables businesses are generating substantial cash, enabling debt reduction ahead of schedule. This operational strength provides a buffer and funding to address the ongoing stabilization of the Sweet Baked Snacks business, which remains the primary uncertainty.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Branded Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)(Product Volume) x (Net Price per Unit) Margin expansion driven by the spread between net price realization and commodity cost inflation, supplemented by operating leverage and productivity savings.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Strong cash flow from coffee and Uncrustables is enabling rapid deleveraging and funding the Hostess stabilization.
- Management achieved its 3x leverage ratio target in Q1 FY2027, ahead of schedule.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is a robust $1.6 billion.
- FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to a midpoint of $10.80.
- U.S. Retail Coffee sales grew 13% in the latest quarter, driven by price and volume.
PRIMARY RISK
The Sweet Baked Snacks segment could fail to stabilize, becoming a persistent drag on growth and margins that offsets strength elsewhere and invalidates the $5.4 billion purchase price.
- The company took a $507.5 million goodwill impairment on the segment in FY2026.
- Sweet Baked Snacks sales decreased by $16.7 million in the latest quarter.
- The segment's FY2026 operating margin was only 10.0%, far below other retail segments.
- Management describes the turnaround as a 'slow and steady' journey.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Volume/Mix Growth | +2% contribution to net sales in Q1 FY2027 - Turning around | The metric has shown a significant positive inflection, turning to a positive contribution in the latest quarter from a down 2% contribution in the second quarter of the prior fiscal year. This marks a turnaround in underlying consumer demand after a period of declines. |
| U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads Segment Net Sales Growth | Turning around | This segment, which includes the key Uncrustables growth brand, returned to growth in the latest quarter after a decline in the prior quarter. Growth was balanced, with a 2 percentage points contribution from price and a 1 percentage point contribution from volume/mix. |
| Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | -19.4 percentage points (Q1 FY2027 (ended 2026-07-31)) | This metric indicates inventory management efficiency. A negative divergence, where inventory grows slower than revenue, suggests efficient sales conversion and working capital management. |
| Net Debt to TTM EBITDA | 5.14 times (As of 2026-09-15) | Market rewards Management is targeting a 3x leverage ratio, which it noted was achieved during the first quarter of fiscal 2027.. Measures the company's leverage. A high ratio indicates significant debt relative to earnings. Management has a stated goal of reducing leverage. |
Core Momentum vs. Acquisition Drag
BULL VIEW
The powerful cash generation from the coffee and Uncrustables brands is more than enough to service debt, fund the Hostess turnaround, and support the stock, as proven by the early achievement of leverage targets.
CORE TENSION
Can strong coffee pricing (contributing 10 points to segment sales) and Uncrustables growth offset the volume declines in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which fell $16.7 million last quarter?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's strong positive reaction to the last two earnings reports shows it is rewarding the deleveraging progress and core strength over the known Hostess issues.
BEAR VIEW
The Hostess business is structurally challenged, and its ongoing weakness will be a persistent drag on results that even a strong core portfolio cannot fully overcome, representing a major capital allocation failure.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
11/23/2026 | Sweet Baked Snacks Drag Watch: Segment sales and profit figures in the next earnings report; commentary on convenience store traffic and SKU rationalization. |
11/23/2026 | Coffee Volume Deceleration Watch: Volume/mix growth for the U.S. Retail Coffee segment in the next earnings report. |
11/23/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: JM Smucker is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
12/2/2026 - 12/17/2026 | Intensifying Peer Competition Watch: Peer commentary on promotional spending, input cost inflation, and price gaps to private label. |
12/2/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hormel Foods is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
12/15/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer General Mills is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
12/17/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Conagra Brands is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Adverse Folgers Litigation News Watch: News on court filings, rulings, or settlement discussions related to the Folgers class action lawsuits. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-15 | Tariff Refunds Received Details: During the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company received tariff refunds of approximately $115.0 million, which were recognized in cost of products sold. | +0.3% $121.30 -> $121.70 |
2026-09-01 | Executive Share Sales Reported Details: In early September, press reports noted the CEO sold shares totaling $11.1 million and the CFO sold shares totaling $2.4 million. | +0.2% $131.16 -> $131.44 |
2026-08-26 | Guidance Raised After Q1 Details: Following the August 26, 2026 earnings report, the company raised its guidance for FY2027 Net Sales Growth, Adjusted EPS, and Free Cash Flow. | +5.1% $125.45 -> $131.84 |
2026-08-26 | Strong Q1 FY27 Results Details: For the earnings report on August 26, 2026, the two-day stock reaction was 5.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | +5.1% $125.45 -> $131.84 |
2026-07-17 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: On July 17, 2026, the Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend from $1.10 to $1.12 per common share, a 2% increase. | -1.3% $112.91 -> $111.46 |
2026-06-09 | Strong Q4 FY26 Results Details: For the earnings report on June 9, 2026, the two-day stock reaction was 15.0% versus -2.0% for the S&P 500. | +15.0% $100.83 -> $115.96 |
2026-05-08 | Strategic Portfolio Review Reported Details: Press reports in May indicated the company hired Goldman Sachs to conduct a strategic review of its portfolio. | -0.2% $97.44 -> $97.22 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: SJM trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.9x the market), around the 45th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GIS - General Mills
Diversified Staples PeerOffers exposure to different categories like cereal and yogurt, and is actively reinvesting to strengthen its portfolio by adjusting base prices.
KHC - Kraft Heinz
Large-Cap TurnaroundProvides exposure to a larger, more globally diversified portfolio of iconic brands. The company is ramping up investments to improve its own consumption and market share trends.
A portfolio of leading consumer staple brands using cash flow from its coffee and Uncrustables engines to fund a challenging turnaround of the recently-acquired Hostess business and pay down debt.
J.M. Smucker is navigating a period of significant portfolio transformation. The company is leveraging its highly profitable and growing coffee business and its high-growth Uncrustables brand to generate cash. This cash is being deployed to reduce the substantial debt incurred from the $5.4 billion Hostess acquisition. The central investment question is whether management can stabilize the underperforming Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which has already required significant write-downs, while managing commodity volatility in its core businesses.
News of sequential improvement in Sweet Baked Snacks sales and margins, continued double-digit growth in Uncrustables, and stable or expanding margins in the coffee segment.
Further impairment charges related to the Hostess acquisition, a sharp slowdown in Uncrustables growth, or significant market share loss in coffee due to competitive pressure or poor cost management.
Short-term fluctuations in green coffee commodity prices that do not fundamentally alter the company's hedging position or long-term cost structure.
Repricing Catalyst
The company's strong Q1 FY2027 earnings beat and subsequent raise to its full-year guidance, driven by a significant one-time tariff refund, which has accelerated its deleveraging timeline and provided flexibility for reinvestment.
U.S. Retail Coffee
$3.3B TTM (37% of Total) · 21% MarginWhat It Is
Sells branded coffee products, including Folgers, Dunkin', and Café Bustelo, primarily to U.S. food retailers, club stores, discount stores, and online retailers.
Who Pays & How
Retailers pay for market-leading coffee brands with high consumer recognition and loyalty, which drive store traffic and sales in a key grocery category.
Competition
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads
$1.9B TTM (20% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Sells Uncrustables frozen sandwiches, Jif peanut butter, and Smucker's fruit spreads primarily to U.S. food retailers, club stores, and mass merchandisers.
Who Pays & How
Retailers pay for the dominant brands in their respective categories (Jif in peanut butter, Smucker's in fruit spreads) and the rapidly growing, category-defining Uncrustables brand.
Competition
U.S. Retail Pet Foods
$1.6B TTM (18% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
Sells pet snacks (Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni) and cat food (Meow Mix) to U.S. food retailers, pet specialty stores, and mass merchandisers.
Who Pays & How
Retailers pay for leading, trusted brands in the pet snacks and mainstream cat food categories that drive significant, recurring consumer purchases.
Competition
Sweet Baked Snacks
$971M TTM (11% of Total) · 10% MarginWhat It Is
Sells Hostess branded products like Twinkies and Donettes across all channels, including food retailers, convenience stores, and mass merchandisers, both domestically and internationally.
Who Pays & How
Retailers and distributors pay for iconic, high-velocity snack cake brands with strong consumer recognition, particularly in the convenience channel.
Competition
Away From Home
$879M TTM (10% of Total) · 25% MarginWhat It Is
Sells products like coffee, Uncrustables, and portion control items to foodservice distributors and operators such as restaurants, schools, and healthcare facilities.
Who Pays & How
Foodservice operators pay for trusted, convenient, and consistently performing products that meet the needs of out-of-home consumption occasions.
Competition
JM Smucker — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Packaged Foods & Meats Resources |
| USDA Data |
| Food Processing |
| Meat+Poultry |
| Just Food |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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