Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $909.05 | Market Cap: $403.6 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $909.05Market Cap: $403.6 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
COST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Costco Wholesale (COST) stock moved by approximately -2.1% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Post-Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Reaction.
Despite Costco beating top and bottom-line estimates for its fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter, which ended August 31, 2025, the stock was "punished" after its earnings call on September 25, 2025, with shares sliding more than 6% before bottoming on November 24, 2025.
2. Slowdown in Comparable Sales Growth.
A significant factor contributing to investor caution was that Costco's comparable sales growth in Q4 FY2025 hit a six-quarter low, indicating a potential moderation or slowing domestic growth momentum.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COST Return | 33% | 52% | -19% | 49% | 40% | 1% | 243% |
| Peers Return | 48% | 26% | -16% | 10% | 21% | 11% | 131% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COST Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 45% | 60% | 58% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COST Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -26% | -1% | -2% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -8% | -30% | -20% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 701 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ
In The Past
Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10082025 | 10-K 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6052025 | 10-Q 5/11/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3132025 | 10-Q 2/16/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/24/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10092024 | 10-K 9/1/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6062024 | 10-Q 5/12/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3132024 | 10-Q 2/18/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12202023 | 10-Q 11/26/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10112023 | 10-K 9/3/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 5/7/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 2/12/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12292022 | 10-Q 11/20/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10052022 | 10-K 8/28/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6022022 | 10-Q 5/8/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 2/13/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/21/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wilcox William Richard | Executive Vice President | 11122025 | Sell | 930.13 | 2,400 | 2,232,312 | 1,860,260 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
