Tearsheet

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $909.05 | Market Cap: $403.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $909.05
Market Cap: $403.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Costco Wholesale (COST) stock moved by approximately -2.1% during the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Post-Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Reaction.

Despite Costco beating top and bottom-line estimates for its fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter, which ended August 31, 2025, the stock was "punished" after its earnings call on September 25, 2025, with shares sliding more than 6% before bottoming on November 24, 2025. 2. Slowdown in Comparable Sales Growth.

A significant factor contributing to investor caution was that Costco's comparable sales growth in Q4 FY2025 hit a six-quarter low, indicating a potential moderation or slowing domestic growth momentum.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COST Return33%52%-19%49%40%1%243%
Peers Return48%26%-16%10%21%11%131%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COST Win Rate75%75%50%75%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%45%60%58%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COST Max Drawdown-5%-17%-26%-1%-2%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-8%-30%-20%-13%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven566 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven701 days1480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ


In The Past

Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Costco Wholesale (COST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
NameCostco W.Amazon.c.Walmart Target Dollar G.BJ's Who. 
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
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Returns

COSTAMZNWMTTGTDGBJMedian
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Operation of membership warehouses242,290226,954195,929166,761152,703
Total242,290226,954195,929166,761152,703


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,220,010
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.1%
Average Daily Volume2,470,013
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.92
Basic Shares Quantity444,012,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
83120251008202510-K 8/31/2025
5312025605202510-Q 5/11/2025
2282025313202510-Q 2/16/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/24/2024
83120241009202410-K 9/1/2024
5312024606202410-Q 5/12/2024
2292024313202410-Q 2/18/2024
113020231220202310-Q 11/26/2023
83120231011202310-K 9/3/2023
5312023601202310-Q 5/7/2023
2282023309202310-Q 2/12/2023
113020221229202210-Q 11/20/2022
83120221005202210-K 8/28/2022
5312022602202210-Q 5/8/2022
2282022310202210-Q 2/13/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/21/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Wilcox William RichardExecutive Vice President11122025Sell930.132,4002,232,3121,860,260Form