Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.55 | Market Cap: $232.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.55Market Cap: $232.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Consumer Lifestyle Transformation. Themes include Tobacco Harm Reduction, Next-Generation Nicotine Products, Smoke-Free Product Innovation, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Consumer Lifestyle Transformation. Themes include Tobacco Harm Reduction, Next-Generation Nicotine Products, Smoke-Free Product Innovation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -8.4% stock movement for Philip Morris International (PM) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Margin Pressures and Rising Costs: Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 earnings driven by growth in smoke-free products, investor sentiment was tempered by rising costs and short-term margin pressures. The company experienced a decline in its net profit margin, falling to approximately 21.5% from 26.3% in the prior year.
2. Increased U.S. Investments and Inventory Normalization: Increased investments, particularly within the U.S. market, coupled with efforts toward inventory normalization, introduced near-term pressures on the company's margins. These operational factors contributed to a decrease in the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PM Return | 4% | 21% | 12% | -2% | 34% | 32% | 144% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 18% | -19% | -9% | 19% | 3% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PM Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 43% | 43% | 52% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PM Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -9% | -10% | -5% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -31% | -27% | -30% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MO, TPB, UVV, XXII, PM. See PM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 664 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2076 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MO, TPB, UVV, XXII, PM
In The Past
Philip Morris International's stock fell -25.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2022. A -25.8% loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
| 08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
| 08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Philip Morris International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dahlgren Lars | Pres. Smoke-Free Oral Products | 3072025 | Sell | 152.96 | 3,679 | 562,740 | 4,103,611 | Form |
| 1 | Andolina Massimo | President, Europe Region | 2252025 | Sell | 156.05 | 17,500 | 2,730,875 | 13,535,309 | Form |
| 2 | Dobrowolski Reginaldo | Vice President and Controller | 2132025 | Sell | 149.88 | 5,000 | 749,400 | 3,117,354 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
