Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $148.58 | Market Cap: $231.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Philip Morris International (PM)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $148.58Market Cap: $231.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Consumer Lifestyle Transformation. Themes include Tobacco Harm Reduction, Next-Generation Nicotine Products, Smoke-Free Product Innovation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 3.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Consumer Lifestyle Transformation. Themes include Tobacco Harm Reduction, Next-Generation Nicotine Products, Smoke-Free Product Innovation, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Philip Morris International (PM) experienced a decline in its stock price, moving by approximately -10.3% during the period from late August to early December 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Disappointment Despite Strong Q3 2025 Performance
Philip Morris International's stock fell significantly on October 21, 2025, dropping as much as 10% in a single trading session. This occurred even though the company's third-quarter sales and earnings surpassed expectations, and it raised its full-year guidance targets.
2. Higher Investor Expectations
The stock's decline was largely driven by some investors who had anticipated an even more robust performance outlook for both earnings and the volumes of smoke-free products than what the company ultimately reported.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PM Return | 4% | 21% | 12% | -2% | 34% | 27% | 135% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 18% | -19% | -9% | 19% | 2% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PM Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 43% | 43% | 52% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PM Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -9% | -10% | -5% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -31% | -27% | -30% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MO, TPB, UVV, XXII, PM. See PM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 664 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2076 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 566 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MO, TPB, UVV, XXII, PM
In The Past
Philip Morris International's stock fell -25.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2022. A -25.8% loss requires a 34.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
| 08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| 05312019 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.9% | 1.3% | -17.2% |
| 08312018 | PM | Philip Morris International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.7% | -2.0% | -12.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Philip Morris International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,987 |
| Op Inc LTM | 249 |
| FCF LTM | 157 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 79 |
| CFO LTM | 202 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 139 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 57.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Dahlgren Lars | Pres. Smoke-Free Oral Products | 3072025 | Sell | 152.96 | 3,679 | 562,740 | 4,103,611 | Form |
| 1 | Andolina Massimo | President, Europe Region | 2252025 | Sell | 156.05 | 17,500 | 2,730,875 | 13,535,309 | Form |
| 2 | Dobrowolski Reginaldo | Vice President and Controller | 2132025 | Sell | 149.88 | 5,000 | 749,400 | 3,117,354 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
