Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.2%
  Key risks
SAM key risks include [1] declining volumes in its key Truly and Samuel Adams brands amid shifting consumer preferences, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 9.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -88%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
6 Key risks
SAM key risks include [1] declining volumes in its key Truly and Samuel Adams brands amid shifting consumer preferences, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SAM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Boston Beer's (SAM) stock movement of -8.9% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:

1. Sales and Volume Declines: Boston Beer reported an 11.2% year-over-year revenue decrease in its third quarter 2025 earnings, coupled with a 3% decline in depletions and a significant 13.7% drop in shipments compared to the same period last year. This continued a trend of anticipated volume declines for the full year 2025, as stated in their Q2 2025 outlook.

2. Broad Industry Headwinds: The company operated within a challenging market environment where volumes were pressured across the broader beer industry. This industry-wide downturn contributed to Boston Beer's struggles during the period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SAM Return163%-49%-35%5%-13%-34%-47%
Peers Return14%12%4%7%-6%-2%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SAM Win Rate67%33%33%50%42%33% 
Peers Win Rate57%53%53%57%48%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SAM Max Drawdown-19%-56%-43%-9%-26%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-7%-11%-10%-14%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STZ, TAP, MNST, KDP, PEP. See SAM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSAMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-77.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven350.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven38 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-28.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven114 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven195.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days1480 days

Compare to FRPT, FLO, SMPL, JJSF, BUD


In The Past

Boston Beer's stock fell -77.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2021. A -77.8% loss requires a 350.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Boston Beer (SAM)

Better Bets than Boston Beer (SAM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SAM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
SAM_11302020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11302020SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.7%-51.5%-52.5%
SAM_9302019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302019SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.1%141.8%-15.9%
SAM_7312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312018SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-11.0%42.7%-15.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
SAM_11302020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11302020SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.7%-51.5%-52.5%
SAM_9302019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302019SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.1%141.8%-15.9%
SAM_7312018_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312018SAMBoston BeerQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-11.0%42.7%-15.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Boston Beer

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SAMSTZTAPMNSTKDPPEPMedian
NameBoston B.Constell.Molson C.Monster .Keurig D.PepsiCo  
Mkt Price201.40142.5947.8175.3428.59150.37108.97
Mkt Cap2.225.19.573.638.8205.932.0
Rev LTM1,9829,62411,2147,97516,17492,36610,419
Op Inc LTM1583,0421,6612,2583,47512,1932,650
FCF LTM2121,8481,0931,9451,5996,7881,724
FCF 3Y Avg1741,6771,2021,6421,3366,6451,489
CFO LTM2722,7691,7382,1802,12811,7552,154
CFO 3Y Avg2402,8411,8721,8881,85511,9741,880

Growth & Margins

SAMSTZTAPMNSTKDPPEPMedian
NameBoston B.Constell.Molson C.Monster .Keurig D.PepsiCo  
Rev Chg LTM-1.1%-5.6%-4.0%7.6%6.8%0.5%-0.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.1%0.7%1.7%8.6%5.9%3.4%2.6%
Rev Chg Q-11.2%-15.0%-2.3%16.8%10.7%2.7%0.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-4.4%-0.6%4.1%2.6%0.7%0.0%
Op Mgn LTM8.0%31.6%14.8%28.3%21.5%13.2%18.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.3%31.7%14.6%27.6%21.8%13.8%18.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%-0.1%-0.2%1.4%0.0%-0.3%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM13.7%28.8%15.5%27.3%13.2%12.7%14.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.9%28.8%16.3%25.3%12.1%13.0%14.7%
FCF/Rev LTM10.7%19.2%9.8%24.4%9.9%7.3%10.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%17.0%10.5%22.0%8.7%7.2%9.6%

Valuation

SAMSTZTAPMNSTKDPPEPMedian
NameBoston B.Constell.Molson C.Monster .Keurig D.PepsiCo  
Mkt Cap2.225.19.573.638.8205.932.0
P/S1.22.50.88.22.12.12.1
P/EBIT14.511.25.529.012.219.013.4
P/E24.919.4-4.338.121.926.623.4
P/CFO8.48.65.230.116.316.412.4
Total Yield4.0%6.7%-19.1%2.6%6.4%7.7%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%4.2%0.0%1.8%3.9%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.7%4.9%10.6%2.9%3.3%3.1%4.1%
D/E0.00.40.70.00.50.00.2
Net D/E-0.10.40.6-0.00.50.00.2

Returns

SAMSTZTAPMNSTKDPPEPMedian
NameBoston B.Constell.Molson C.Monster .Keurig D.PepsiCo  
1M Rtn1.6%10.4%4.0%5.7%5.4%4.1%4.7%
3M Rtn-9.4%6.7%1.9%13.9%7.0%8.4%6.9%
6M Rtn-2.0%-10.0%-1.2%20.0%-11.6%18.6%-1.6%
12M Rtn-34.5%-37.2%-16.8%44.2%-11.1%0.2%-13.9%
3Y Rtn-41.5%-34.8%2.7%49.5%-14.1%-7.9%-11.0%
1M Excs Rtn0.6%9.4%3.0%4.7%4.4%3.1%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-13.7%5.0%0.1%10.2%2.8%4.5%3.6%
6M Excs Rtn-15.6%-23.6%-14.8%6.3%-25.3%4.9%-15.2%
12M Excs Rtn-49.3%-51.3%-31.0%30.0%-25.2%-14.0%-28.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.0%-110.6%-72.6%-22.2%-91.1%-82.2%-86.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Produces and sells alcohol beverages under various brands2,0092,0902,0581,7361,250
Total2,0092,0902,0581,7361,250


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity993,988
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.4%
Average Daily Volume159,016
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.25
Basic Shares Quantity10,855,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20255.5%-6.2%-10.8%
7/24/20256.5%2.6%10.8%
2/25/20253.0%2.0%1.5%
10/24/2024-2.0%-3.6%3.6%
7/25/20247.5%2.4%4.2%
2/27/2024-15.8%-19.7%-16.8%
10/26/2023-12.4%-8.7%-7.9%
7/27/202316.8%14.3%13.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11811
# Negative9129
Median Positive6.5%12.5%4.6%
Median Negative-8.0%-7.7%-12.7%
Max Positive25.7%20.8%34.0%
Max Negative-26.0%-25.5%-37.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023427202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/25/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Spillane Michael11042025Sell205.151,152236,3332,635,152Form