Boston Beer (SAM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $197.67 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Brewers
Boston Beer (SAM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $197.67Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Brewers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Health & Wellness Trends, and Adult Beverage Innovation. Themes include Craft & Premium Alcoholic Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -119% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SAM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Shipments and Depletions Declined Significantly: The Boston Beer Company experienced a notable decrease in its third quarter 2025, with shipments falling by 13.7% and depletions, which represent sales to retailers, decreasing by 3%. This indicates a reduction in product movement through its distribution channels and to consumers.
2. Net Revenue Decrease: For the third quarter of 2025, Boston Beer reported a decrease in net revenue of 11.2%, totaling $537.5 million. This substantial decline in sales directly impacted the company's financial performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAM Return | 163% | -49% | -35% | 5% | -13% | -35% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 3% | -10% | 15% | 8% | -34% | -5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAM Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 43% | 60% | 48% | 24% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAM Max Drawdown | -19% | -56% | -43% | -9% | -26% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -18% | -30% | -13% | -14% | -44% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FRPT, FLO, SMPL, JJSF, BUD. See SAM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 350.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 195.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FRPT, FLO, SMPL, JJSF, BUD
In The Past
Boston Beer's stock fell -77.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2021. A -77.8% loss requires a 350.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 11302020 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 13.7% | -51.5% | -52.5% |
| 09302019 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.1% | 141.8% | -15.9% |
| 07312018 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -11.0% | 42.7% | -15.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 11302020 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 13.7% | -51.5% | -52.5% |
| 09302019 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.1% | 141.8% | -15.9% |
| 07312018 | SAM | Boston Beer | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -11.0% | 42.7% | -15.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Boston Beer
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 61.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,791 |
| Op Inc LTM | 188 |
| FCF LTM | 156 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 174 |
| CFO LTM | 178 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 188 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 22.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -46.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -44.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -60.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spillane Michael | 11042025 | Sell | 205.15 | 1,152 | 236,333 | 2,635,152 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |