Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $84.36 | Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $84.36Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SFM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Deceleration in Comparable Store Sales Growth: Sprouts Farmers Market reported a notable slowdown in comparable store sales growth, reaching 5.9% in the third quarter of 2025. This marked a significant deceleration compared to the 10.2% growth in Q2 and 11.7% in Q1, raising concerns among investors about the company's underlying sales momentum.
2. Lowered Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the Q3 results, management provided a more conservative outlook, projecting comparable store sales growth of only 0% to 2% for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also reduced its full-year 2025 guidance for both net sales growth (to approximately 14% from a previous range of 14.5%-16.0%) and comparable store sales growth (to approximately 7% from 7.5%-9.0%).
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SFM Return | 4% | 48% | 9% | 49% | 164% | -33% | 338% |
| Peers Return | 45% | 73% | -18% | 22% | 55% | 8% | 319% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SFM Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 92% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 45% | 62% | 57% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SFM Max Drawdown | -31% | -3% | -23% | -7% | -1% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -8% | -27% | -20% | -18% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, KR, UNFI, IMKTA, NGVC. See SFM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SFM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 881 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, KR, UNFI, IMKTA, NGVC
In The Past
Sprouts Farmers Market's stock fell -33.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -33.9% loss requires a 51.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SFM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sprouts Farmers Market
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| Rev LTM | 20,219 |
| Op Inc LTM | 392 |
| FCF LTM | 348 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 254 |
| CFO LTM | 586 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 517 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.2 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.1 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 11.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 97.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |