Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.6%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COTY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The provided search results contain information about Coty's earnings for Q3 FY2025 (ending March 31, 2025) and Q4 FY2025 (ending June 30, 2025), as well as Q1 FY2026 (ending September 30, 2025). The requested period is from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. Here's a summary of relevant information from the search results for the approximate period: * **Q4 FY2025 Earnings (reported August 20, 2025):** Coty reported Q4 FY25 results in line with expectations but noted a decline in net revenue and adjusted operating income. The company targeted sequential like-for-like (LFL) and EBITDA trend improvement in FY26, returning to growth in 2H26. For FY25, net revenue decreased 4% and consumer beauty net revenue declined 8% on a reported basis. * **Analyst Ratings and Price Targets (around August-December 2025):** Several analysts lowered their target prices for Coty around this period. Evercore ISI lowered its target from $10.00 to $7.00 (August 21, 2025), and Citigroup reaffirmed a "neutral" rating with a lowered price objective of $4.25 from $6.50 (August 21, 2025). Berenberg Bank reiterated a "hold" rating with a reduced price target of $5.05 from $6.50 (September 10, 2025). The average twelve-month price target among brokers updating their coverage was $5.4158. * **Q1 FY2026 Earnings (reported November 5, 2025):** Coty reported Q1 FY2026 EPS of $0.12, missing analyst estimates of $0.15 by $0.03, while revenue matched forecasts at $1.58 billion. The company experienced an 8% decline in total net revenues on a like-for-like basis, and adjusted gross margin fell 100 basis points to 64.5% year-over-year. Following this announcement, the stock declined by 2.35%. * **Senior Notes Pricing (October 6, 2025):** Coty Inc. priced $900.0 million of senior notes. * **Challenges in International Markets (mentioned in January 2025 but relevant for FY25 and Q1 FY26):** Coty faced ongoing headwinds in markets like mainland China and Asia Travel Retail, with management expecting these challenges to persist in fiscal year 2025. In Q1 FY2025 (ending September 30, 2024, but contextually referring to challenges impacting FY25), Asia Pacific net revenues declined due to lower revenues in the Prestige segment and the divestiture of the Lacoste license. Here are the key points for why Coty's stock moved by -19.6% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Deteriorating Financial Performance in Q1 FY2026.** Coty reported Q1 FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12, missing analyst expectations of $0.15, and experienced an 8% decline in total net revenues on a like-for-like basis.

**2. Analyst Downgrades and Lowered Price Targets.** Multiple equity research analysts lowered their price targets for Coty and reaffirmed "hold" or "neutral" ratings on the stock. For instance, Evercore ISI lowered its target from $10.00 to $7.00, and Citigroup adjusted its price objective from $6.50 to $4.25 around late August 2025.

**3. Continued Weakness in Consumer Beauty and International Markets.** The company continued to face challenges in its Consumer Beauty segment and key international markets, including mainland China and Asia Travel Retail, which contributed to overall revenue declines.

**4. Increased Debt and Leverage.** Coty's financial net debt rose to $3.62 billion on March 31, 2025, from $2.9 billion sequentially, with leverage increasing to 3.2x from 2.9x. Additionally, the company priced $900.0 million of senior notes in October 2025.

**5. Negative Outlook and Guidance.** Despite efforts towards cost-saving and strategic plans, the company's guidance indicated continued headwinds and a projected decline in like-for-like sales for Q1 and Q2 FY2026, with a return to growth only expected in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COTY Return-37%50%-18%45%-44%-52%-70%
Peers Return30%7%-28%5%-33%-3%-31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COTY Win Rate33%67%50%50%17%20% 
Peers Win Rate52%52%40%43%45%34% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COTY Max Drawdown-76%-10%-43%0%-44%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-14%-41%-28%-44%-40% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BRBR, HLF, EPC, NUS, MED. See COTY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOTYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven265 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven359.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven926 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-71.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven252.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to BRBR, HLF, EPC, NUS, MED


In The Past

Coty's stock fell -45.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/15/2021. A -45.3% loss requires a 83.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Coty (COTY)

Better Bets than Coty (COTY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COTY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Coty

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COTYBRBRHLFEPCNUSMEDMedian
NameCoty BellRing.HerbalifeEdgewell.Nu Skin .Medifast  
Mkt Price3.4430.8212.4517.449.9811.0111.73
Mkt Cap3.03.91.30.80.50.11.1
Rev LTM5,7992,2244,9622,2041,5604302,214
Op Inc LTM47636748820860-6288
FCF LTM2991272174353190
FCF 3Y Avg3241691901166170142
CFO LTM490132305118897125
CFO 3Y Avg54517231017410779173

Growth & Margins

COTYBRBRHLFEPCNUSMEDMedian
NameCoty BellRing.HerbalifeEdgewell.Nu Skin .Medifast  
Rev Chg LTM-5.7%16.3%-0.8%-2.9%-12.1%-36.3%-4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.1%18.6%-2.4%0.4%-13.1%-35.5%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q-5.6%6.2%2.7%-3.2%-15.3%-36.2%-4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.6%1.5%0.7%-0.9%-4.1%-10.6%-1.3%
Op Mgn LTM8.2%16.5%9.8%9.5%3.9%-1.3%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.4%17.4%8.1%10.5%4.3%4.2%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-3.3%-0.1%-0.6%0.4%-1.4%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM8.5%5.9%6.1%5.4%5.7%1.7%5.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%9.2%6.2%7.7%6.0%7.7%7.7%
FCF/Rev LTM5.2%5.7%4.4%1.9%3.4%0.2%3.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.5%9.1%3.8%5.1%3.5%6.5%5.3%

Valuation

COTYBRBRHLFEPCNUSMEDMedian
NameCoty BellRing.HerbalifeEdgewell.Nu Skin .Medifast  
Mkt Cap3.03.91.30.80.50.11.1
P/S0.63.30.20.50.40.30.4
P/EBIT-23.220.01.86.94.4-26.43.1
P/E-9.232.12.716.95.5605.811.2
P/CFO7.255.72.99.36.720.98.2
Total Yield-10.9%3.1%36.8%8.0%20.2%0.3%5.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%2.0%0.1%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.3%2.6%20.7%6.2%12.4%12.7%9.3%
D/E1.20.12.51.30.50.10.9
Net D/E1.10.12.21.10.1-1.10.6

Returns

COTYBRBRHLFEPCNUSMEDMedian
NameCoty BellRing.HerbalifeEdgewell.Nu Skin .Medifast  
1M Rtn-11.8%1.4%54.3%-9.2%-6.2%-7.3%-6.8%
3M Rtn-20.6%-26.4%25.4%-26.6%-16.6%-21.1%-20.8%
6M Rtn-30.9%-50.4%62.3%-34.5%28.0%-18.7%-24.8%
12M Rtn-54.2%-59.9%59.6%-53.1%36.6%-42.7%-47.9%
3Y Rtn-57.4%16.8%-29.6%-57.1%-73.6%-90.2%-57.2%
1M Excs Rtn-11.8%1.4%54.3%-9.1%-6.2%-7.3%-6.7%
3M Excs Rtn-26.8%-33.1%18.0%-31.4%-23.7%-25.9%-26.3%
6M Excs Rtn-45.6%-65.1%47.6%-49.3%13.3%-33.4%-39.5%
12M Excs Rtn-67.0%-74.3%46.7%-64.9%26.8%-57.6%-61.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-126.7%-42.9%-100.4%-128.8%-144.9%-163.0%-127.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Prestige3,8573,4203,2682,721 
Consumer Beauty2,2612,1342,0361,909 
Corporate0    
Body Care and Other    632
Color Cosmetics    1,467
Fragrances    2,618
Total6,1185,5545,3044,6304,718


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Prestige581484367158 
Consumer Beauty89631027 
Corporate-123-3-136-234 
Total547544241-49 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,353,961
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.6%
Average Daily Volume7,711,968
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.29
Basic Shares Quantity872,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025821202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024820202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023822202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022208202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022825202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ballini Beatrice 11182025Sell7.907,00055,300 Form