Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $30.5 | Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Alamos Gold (AGI)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $30.5Market Cap: $12.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 57% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. | Key risksAGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 57% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Supply & Security. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction, and Sustainable Mining Operations. |
| Key risksAGI key risks include [1] potential execution delays and cost overruns at its key Island Gold and Magino growth projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 11/4/2026
Alamos Gold (AGI) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Gold Price Rally Provided Macroeconomic Tailwinds. Gold prices experienced a sharp rally starting in August 2026, fueled by rising concerns over the U.S. national debt and continued large-scale gold acquisitions by central banks. This macroeconomic factor significantly bolstered the value proposition for gold producers like Alamos Gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs projected gold to close fiscal year 2026 at $4,650 per troy ounce, while Bank of America had forecast $4,250 by year-end, a level already surpassed by August 2026. The price of gold was trading near $4,366 to $4,405 per ounce by mid-September 2026, reflecting this upward momentum.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Positive Long-Term Outlook. Leading into the specified period, Alamos Gold reported a strong fiscal Q2 2026, with gold production of 130,600 ounces and adjusted earnings per share of $0.59, surpassing consensus estimates. The company reinforced its ambitious long-term growth strategy, targeting an increase in annual production to approximately 1 million ounces by 2030, an 87% increase from 2026 levels. This growth is anticipated to be driven by expansions at the Island Gold District and the development of the Lynn Lake project, with expectations of substantially lower all-in sustaining costs. This positive operational momentum and future growth pipeline contributed to investor confidence.
Show more
Alamos Gold (AGI) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Gold Price Rally Provided Macroeconomic Tailwinds. Gold prices experienced a sharp rally starting in August 2026, fueled by rising concerns over the U.S. national debt and continued large-scale gold acquisitions by central banks. This macroeconomic factor significantly bolstered the value proposition for gold producers like Alamos Gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs projected gold to close fiscal year 2026 at $4,650 per troy ounce, while Bank of America had forecast $4,250 by year-end, a level already surpassed by August 2026. The price of gold was trading near $4,366 to $4,405 per ounce by mid-September 2026, reflecting this upward momentum.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Positive Long-Term Outlook. Leading into the specified period, Alamos Gold reported a strong fiscal Q2 2026, with gold production of 130,600 ounces and adjusted earnings per share of $0.59, surpassing consensus estimates. The company reinforced its ambitious long-term growth strategy, targeting an increase in annual production to approximately 1 million ounces by 2030, an 87% increase from 2026 levels. This growth is anticipated to be driven by expansions at the Island Gold District and the development of the Lynn Lake project, with expectations of substantially lower all-in sustaining costs. This positive operational momentum and future growth pipeline contributed to investor confidence.
Show more
Updated on 11/4/2026
Alamos Gold (AGI) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Gold Price Rally Provided Macroeconomic Tailwinds. Gold prices experienced a sharp rally starting in August 2026, fueled by rising concerns over the U.S. national debt and continued large-scale gold acquisitions by central banks. This macroeconomic factor significantly bolstered the value proposition for gold producers like Alamos Gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs projected gold to close fiscal year 2026 at $4,650 per troy ounce, while Bank of America had forecast $4,250 by year-end, a level already surpassed by August 2026. The price of gold was trading near $4,366 to $4,405 per ounce by mid-September 2026, reflecting this upward momentum.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Positive Long-Term Outlook. Leading into the specified period, Alamos Gold reported a strong fiscal Q2 2026, with gold production of 130,600 ounces and adjusted earnings per share of $0.59, surpassing consensus estimates. The company reinforced its ambitious long-term growth strategy, targeting an increase in annual production to approximately 1 million ounces by 2030, an 87% increase from 2026 levels. This growth is anticipated to be driven by expansions at the Island Gold District and the development of the Lynn Lake project, with expectations of substantially lower all-in sustaining costs. This positive operational momentum and future growth pipeline contributed to investor confidence.
3. Strategic Shareholder Returns and Debt Reduction Initiatives. Alamos Gold actively pursued initiatives to enhance shareholder value and strengthen its financial position. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company returned $22 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with an additional $17 million in October, bringing year-to-date shareholder returns to $123 million. Furthermore, Alamos Gold committed $86 million during fiscal Q3 2026 to repurchase and eliminate 33,000 ounces of legacy Argonaut Gold hedge contracts, achieving the repurchase of 96% of inherited gold hedges year-to-date. These actions signaled strong financial management and a commitment to shareholder returns.
Show less
Alamos Gold (AGI) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Gold Price Rally Provided Macroeconomic Tailwinds. Gold prices experienced a sharp rally starting in August 2026, fueled by rising concerns over the U.S. national debt and continued large-scale gold acquisitions by central banks. This macroeconomic factor significantly bolstered the value proposition for gold producers like Alamos Gold. Financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs projected gold to close fiscal year 2026 at $4,650 per troy ounce, while Bank of America had forecast $4,250 by year-end, a level already surpassed by August 2026. The price of gold was trading near $4,366 to $4,405 per ounce by mid-September 2026, reflecting this upward momentum.
2. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Positive Long-Term Outlook. Leading into the specified period, Alamos Gold reported a strong fiscal Q2 2026, with gold production of 130,600 ounces and adjusted earnings per share of $0.59, surpassing consensus estimates. The company reinforced its ambitious long-term growth strategy, targeting an increase in annual production to approximately 1 million ounces by 2030, an 87% increase from 2026 levels. This growth is anticipated to be driven by expansions at the Island Gold District and the development of the Lynn Lake project, with expectations of substantially lower all-in sustaining costs. This positive operational momentum and future growth pipeline contributed to investor confidence.
3. Strategic Shareholder Returns and Debt Reduction Initiatives. Alamos Gold actively pursued initiatives to enhance shareholder value and strengthen its financial position. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company returned $22 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with an additional $17 million in October, bringing year-to-date shareholder returns to $123 million. Furthermore, Alamos Gold committed $86 million during fiscal Q3 2026 to repurchase and eliminate 33,000 ounces of legacy Argonaut Gold hedge contracts, achieving the repurchase of 96% of inherited gold hedges year-to-date. These actions signaled strong financial management and a commitment to shareholder returns.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.9% change in AGI stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.80 | 30.00 | 7.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,228 | 2,276 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 52.6% | 46.7% | -11.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 11.8 | 18.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 420 | 419 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGI | 7.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 50.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 6.9% | 50.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.7% change in AGI stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.85 | 30.00 | -24.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,072 | 2,276 | 9.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.2% | 46.7% | -8.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.8 | 11.8 | -25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 420 | 419 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGI | -24.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.1% | 51.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in AGI stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.67 | 30.00 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,609 | 2,276 | 41.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.5% | 46.7% | 39.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.0 | 11.8 | -50.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 420 | 419 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGI | -2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 45.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 27.5% | 55.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 145.8% change in AGI stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 129.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.21 | 30.00 | 145.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,001 | 2,276 | 127.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 46.7% | 129.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.8 | 11.8 | -50.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 396 | 419 | -5.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 145.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGI | 145.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 49.4% | 40.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGI Return | -11% | 33% | 34% | 38% | 110% | -22% | 259% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -7% | 7% | 14% | 123% | 9% | 223% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 36% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 48% | 57% | 52% | 77% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGI Max Drawdown | -28% | -28% | -21% | -18% | -21% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -46% | -33% | -30% | -25% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AEM, GOLD, NEM, KGC, BTG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Alamos Gold's stock fell -0.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -74.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 292.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.5% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3362 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Alamos Gold's stock fell -0.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alamos Gold (AGI)
```html
Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based mining company primarily focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of precious metals. The company's core operations involve finding, developing, and operating mines that produce gold and silver. Its operational footprint is geographically diverse, with activities spanning across Canada, Mexico, the United States, and Turkey.
The main products of Alamos Gold are gold and silver, which it extracts from its various mining properties. Key assets contributing to its production include two prominent mines in Ontario, Canada: the Young-Davidson mine, which serves as its flagship project, and the Island Gold mine. These mines are crucial to the company's output of precious metals.
As a producer of gold and silver, Alamos Gold serves the global precious metals market. Its primary customers are those involved in the buying, selling, and holding of these commodities, including financial institutions, central banks, industrial users, and the jewelry sector worldwide. The company's business relies on the global demand for and market prices of gold and silver.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
ExxonMobil for gold.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gold: Alamos Gold extracts and sells gold from its various mining operations.
- Silver: The company also explores for and extracts silver as a precious metal byproduct or primary product.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) operates in the precious metals mining sector, primarily extracting gold and silver. As such, its product is a raw or semi-processed commodity (typically in the form of doré bars or concentrates).
Due to the fungible nature of commodities and the liquid global market for precious metals, gold mining companies like Alamos Gold Inc. generally do not publicly disclose the names of their specific major customers. Instead, they sell their output into the market at prevailing prices to a range of specialized entities within the precious metals supply chain.
The primary categories of customers that Alamos Gold Inc. would typically sell its gold and silver to are:
- Precious Metal Refiners: Companies that specialize in purifying raw or semi-processed precious metals (like doré bars) into high-purity bullion suitable for investment, industrial, and jewelry manufacturing purposes.
- Bullion Banks and Financial Institutions: Large banks and financial firms that act as intermediaries in the physical precious metals market, often buying from miners for their own trading operations or for resale to other clients.
- Commodity Trading Houses: Firms that specialize in the large-scale buying, selling, and logistics of raw materials, including precious metals, on a global scale.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
John A. McCluskey, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
John A. McCluskey co-founded Alamos Gold Inc. in 2003 with mining hall of famer Chester Millar. He also founded Alamos Minerals in 1996 and Grayd Resource Corp. in 1980, serving as CEO of Grayd from 1996 to 2003. Before Alamos, Mr. McCluskey worked for Glamis Gold, a company also started by Chester Millar. He partnered with Chester Millar to pursue opportunities in Mexico, which led to the creation of Alamos, going public in June 1996. In 2001, he secured an option to acquire an asset in Mexico and partnered with National Gold, eventually consolidating the district and becoming CEO of Alamos in 2003. Grayd Resources was acquired by Agnico Eagle Mines in 2011. Mr. McCluskey was named Ontario's 2012 Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of The Year.
Greg Fisher, Chief Financial Officer
Greg Fisher joined Alamos Gold in 2010 and was appointed Chief Financial Officer in 2023, having previously served as Senior Vice President of Finance. He brings close to 20 years of progressive experience in the mining sector. Prior to joining Alamos, Mr. Fisher was a Senior Manager at KPMG, where he served mining clients in the firm's audit practice.
Luc Guimond, Chief Operating Officer
Luc Guimond holds the position of Chief Operating Officer at Alamos Gold Inc.
Chris Bostwick, Senior Vice President, Technical Services
Chris Bostwick possesses over 30 years of experience in the global mining industry, including 19 years spent with Barrick Gold. He joined Alamos Gold as Vice President, Technical Services, during the merger with AuRico Gold Inc., and previously held the role of Senior Vice President of Technical Services at AuRico Gold. Before his time at AuRico, Mr. Bostwick was seconded from Barrick to Highland Gold Mining, where he led the Capital Projects and Technical Services groups.
John Fitzgerald, Senior Vice President, Projects
John Fitzgerald has over 30 years of global experience in progressive engineering and management positions. He joined Alamos in 2021 as Vice President, Projects. Prior to his role at Alamos, he was Vice President, Projects & Technical Services at Centerra Gold. Mr. Fitzgerald also served as Chief Operating Officer at AuRico Metals and Senior Director of Mining at AuRico Gold (and its predecessor Northgate Minerals), where he oversaw mining and project development activities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Alamos Gold Inc.'s business (AGI) are primarily tied to commodity price fluctuations, operational challenges including the execution of expansion projects and weather-related disruptions, and jurisdictional and regulatory changes.
- Gold Price Volatility: The price of gold is the most significant factor affecting Alamos Gold's profitability. Significant declines in gold prices could quickly compress profit margins, directly impacting the company's revenue and financial performance.
- Operational Risks: This category encompasses several critical factors. The successful execution of large mining expansion projects, such as the Island Gold expansion, is vital for the company's growth, but these projects inherently carry risks of cost overruns, delays, and technical issues. Furthermore, mining operations are exposed to inherent geological uncertainties, equipment failures, safety risks, and production disruptions. Specifically, operations in northern climates, like Canada, face challenges from extreme weather conditions that can lead to production shortfalls, as experienced in 2025 at the Island Gold and Young-Davidson mines due to severe winter weather and other operational issues. The geographic concentration of a significant portion of the company's production from a single asset, such as the Island Gold District, also amplifies the impact of any operational disruptions at that site.
- Jurisdictional and Regulatory Risks: Although Alamos Gold operates primarily in politically stable jurisdictions like Canada and Mexico, the company remains subject to various governmental, regulatory, and environmental risks. Changes in national and local legislation, environmental requirements, or tax policies could negatively affect operations. The ability to obtain and maintain necessary licenses, permits, and authorizations for its development-stage and operating assets is also a continuous risk.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence and increasing adoption of digital assets, particularly cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as an alternative store of value. These digital assets are often touted as "digital gold" and compete with physical gold for investor capital seeking a hedge against inflation or a non-sovereign asset. A significant long-term shift of investment demand from physical gold to digital alternatives could reduce the overall market demand for gold, impacting gold prices and the profitability of gold mining operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Alamos Gold (AGI)
Alamos Gold Inc. primarily explores for and extracts gold and silver. The addressable markets for these precious metals are global.
Gold Market
The global gold market size is estimated to be 4,890.0 tons in 2025. It is projected to grow from 5,118.1 tons in 2026 to 7,424.4 tons by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.70% during this forecast period. In terms of value, the global gold market was estimated at USD 291.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 400 billion by the end of 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.51% from 2025-2030.
Silver Market
The global silver market size is expected to reach 37.78 kilotons in 2025. This market is forecast to grow to 49.54 kilotons by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.62% between 2026 and 2031. The global silver market was valued at USD 87.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 202.07 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.86% during the forecast period (2025-2033).
AI Analysis | Feedback
The expected drivers of future revenue growth for Alamos Gold (AGI) over the next 2-3 years include:
- Island Gold District Expansion: A significant driver of revenue growth is the multi-phase expansion of the Island Gold District in Ontario, Canada, which includes the Island Gold underground mine and the Magino open-pit mine. This expansion is projected to nearly double the district's value and lead to a substantial increase in annual gold production to an average of 534,000 ounces over the initial 10 years post-2028, representing a 113% increase from 2025 production. Key aspects of this expansion involve doubling mill capacity to 20,000 tonnes per day and increasing underground mining rates.
- Increased Production at Young-Davidson Mine: The Young-Davidson mine, located in Northern Ontario, Canada, is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth through higher underground mining rates. Production at Young-Davidson is expected to increase by approximately 8% in 2026 relative to 2025, driven by improved ore pass availability and capacity.
- Commencement of Production from the PDA Project: The PDA (Palo Duro) project in Mexico, part of the Mulatos District, is slated to begin initial production by mid-2027. This new source of gold production will add to Alamos Gold's overall output and, consequently, its revenue.
- Ongoing Exploration Success and Reserve Growth: Alamos Gold's consistent investment in exploration, particularly within the Island Gold District, has resulted in significant increases in mineral reserves. The company reported a 32% increase in year-end mineral reserves to 16 million ounces in 2025, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth. This expansion of the reserve base underpins longer mine lives and provides the foundation for sustained future production.
- Exposure to Higher Realized Gold Prices: While subject to market dynamics, Alamos Gold has strategically increased its exposure to gold prices by reducing hedges inherited from past transactions. Higher realized gold prices have historically boosted the company's revenue, and with increased unhedged production from its growth projects, the company is positioned to benefit further from favorable gold market conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Alamos Gold received approval to repurchase up to 18.58 million Class A common shares (approximately 4.4% of total outstanding shares) between December 24, 2025, and December 23, 2026.
- In the previous program, ending December 2025, Alamos repurchased 1.33 million shares for C$54.4 million (approximately $38.8 million).
- The company renewed its Normal Course Issuer Bid to repurchase up to 18,605,661 Class A Common Shares from December 24, 2024, to December 23, 2025, with the aim of enhancing shareholder value.
Inbound Investments
- Van ECK Associates Corp significantly increased its stake in Alamos Gold by 35.3% in Q3, acquiring 11,876,324 shares to hold a total of 45,544,137 shares, valued at approximately $1.59 billion, representing 10.83% of the company.
- Several other major institutions, including Vanguard, CIBC Asset Management, Mackenzie, and Geode, also increased their positions, while Norges Bank initiated a new stake, contributing to institutional investors owning roughly 64.33% of Alamos Gold's stock.
Outbound Investments
- In April 2024, Alamos Gold acquired Orford Mining Corporation and its wholly-owned Qiqavik Gold Project in Nunavik, Quebec.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital spending is projected to increase to between $850 and $940 million in 2026 (excluding capitalized exploration), primarily due to the Island Gold District (IGD) Expansion, accelerated spending at Canadian mine sites, and ongoing inflation.
- From 2022 to 2024, total capital expenditures exceeded $1.1 billion, reflecting significant investments in exploration and mine development.
- A primary focus of capital expenditures is the Island Gold District Expansion, with an expected $355 million to $385 million in growth capital for 2026, alongside investments in the Lynn Lake project and PDA development.
Peer Outperformance in Gold
AGI has outperformed 92% of its 36 Gold peers over 5Y. Gold ranks 3rd of 15 industries in Materials by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Gold constituents that AGI has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
37%
of 41 industry peers · 0.3% return
3Y
35%
of 40 industry peers · 126.6% return
5Y
92%
of 36 industry peers · 308.3% return
No Gold peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AGI by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Materials sector, ranked by 5Y. Gold is AGI's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 52.4% | 106.4% | 150.7% | SCCO 273% · TGB 242% · HBM 232% |
| Steel | 14 | 26.5% | 42.4% | 137.5% | STLD 302% · HCC 290% · RS 198% |
| Gold ← | 37 | 12.4% | 176.7% | 97.3% | IAG 513% · OGC 368% · AGI 308% |
| Silver | 6 | 37.9% | 247.4% | 86.7% | AYA 285% · HL 168% · EXK 58% |
| Construction Materials | 6 | -6.0% | 27.8% | 49.3% | USLM 385% · CRH 112% · VMC 60% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 16.0% | 108.3% | 31.4% | CENX 152% · AA -8% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 11 | 15.1% | 21.4% | 11.1% | GEF 35% · ATR 22% · SLGN 11% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 29.6% | 17.6% | 2.4% | PKG 123% · CCK 24% · SON 5% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -53.0% | -10.4% | -3.1% | SKE 170% · MTRN 108% · MP -3% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 3 | 25.6% | 5.9% | -12.1% | CBT 49% · ASH -12% · CC -45% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 16.9% | 1.1% | -16.1% | NEU 143% · ECL 46% · SXT 44% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 13 | 23.4% | -21.8% | -28.6% | HWKN 342% · MEOH 52% · DOW -25% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 7 | -0.9% | 121.7% | -32.1% | PPTA 260% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | 3.1% | 5.9% | -43.5% | CF 112% · CTVA 82% · NTR 27% |
| Paper Products | 4 | -34.7% | -60.2% | -80.6% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.0 |
| Rev LTM | 8,444 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,420 |
| FCF LTM | 2,635 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,968 |
| CFO LTM | 4,137 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,206 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 31.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 69.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 79.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 55.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 39.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 48.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Gold District | 834 | 444 | 248 | 235 | 252 |
| Young-Davidson | 534 | 415 | 355 | 348 | 350 |
| Mulatos | 486 | 487 | 420 | 238 | 221 |
| Corporate/other | -45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 1,809 | 1,347 | 1,023 | 821 | 824 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Gold District | 484 | 232 | 120 | 110 | 135 |
| Mulatos | 284 | 191 | 144 | -7 | 36 |
| Young-Davidson | 261 | 208 | 104 | 93 | 105 |
| Corporate/other | 69 | -69 | -51 | -84 | -262 |
| Total | 1,097 | 562 | 318 | 112 | 15 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Gold District | 3,179 | 2,757 | 1,454 | 606 | 539 |
| Young-Davidson | 1,838 | 1,759 | 1,693 | 1,645 | 1,684 |
| Mulatos | 697 | 541 | 632 | 1,222 | 1,114 |
| Corporate/other | 670 | 280 | 223 | 201 | 283 |
| Magino | 0 | ||||
| Total | 6,385 | 5,336 | 4,001 | 3,674 | 3,622 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/13/2009 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -45.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $33.27 | $37.90 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.8% | -20.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 52.6% | 56.1% |
| Downside Capture | 313.15 | 239.37 |
| Upside Capture | 263.68 | 195.27 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 45.3% | 44.2% |
AGI Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.15 | 2.23 | 1.92 | 0.81 |
| Up Beta | 1.33 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 1.11 | 1.44 | 0.53 |
| Down Beta | 1.03 | 2.63 | 3.12 | 2.79 | 1.68 | 0.60 |
| Up Capture | 207% | 220% | 266% | 214% | 317% | 149% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 32 | 59 | 131 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 375% | 336% | 228% | 222% | 161% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 26 | 32 | 67 | 120 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGI | -3.7% | 56.1% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 28.4% | 17.9% | 1.23 | 56.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 77.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | 1.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 33.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGI | 30.3% | 42.9% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 7.0% | 19.1% | 0.25 | 39.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 27.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 72.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 20.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 26.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 20.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AGI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGI | 13.8% | 48.2% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.9% | 20.7% | 0.46 | 23.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 15.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 63.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 16.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 14.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/26/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/29/2023 | 40-F |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/26/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/31/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/26/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/29/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/30/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/30/2021 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/27/2020 | 40-F |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verbena Value LP | $41.0 Mil | 6.7% | 26 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $16.8 Mil | 6.4% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Merk Investments LLC | $20.0 Mil | 5.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $20.0 Mil | 4.1% | 28 | ADD +42.2% | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $33.7 Mil | 2.4% | 33 | ADD +73.2% | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $30.5 Mil | 1.6% | 43 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verbena Value LP | $41.0 Mil | 6.7% | 26 | ADD +44.7% | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $33.7 Mil | 2.4% | 33 | ADD +73.2% | 13F |
| Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC | $30.5 Mil | 1.6% | 43 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| Merk Investments LLC | $20.0 Mil | 5.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Mudita Advisors LLP | $20.0 Mil | 4.1% | 28 | ADD +42.2% | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $16.8 Mil | 6.4% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
Alamos Gold — Investor Video Playlist
Leadership
CEO John McCluskey highlights the Island Gold District
Investor / Analyst
Alamos Gold Announces Closing of Argonaut Gold Acquisition
Products & Services
Young-Davidson 2 Millionth Ounce Gold Pour
Investor / Analyst
Alamos Gold's Q1 2024 Results
Products & Services
Alamos Gold
Leadership
Alamos Gold Announces Friendly Acquisition of Argonaut Gold
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Gold Resources |
| Kitco News |
| World Gold Council |
| Mining Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/4/2026