Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $89.43 | Market Cap: $98.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Newmont (NEM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $89.43Market Cap: $98.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Renewable Energy Transition, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NEM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the 21.2% stock movement for Newmont (NEM) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Newmont reported exceptional third-quarter 2025 results, with revenue increasing 20% year-over-year, adjusted earnings doubling, and a record $1.6 billion in free cash flow, marking its fourth consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in free cash flow. This performance significantly surpassed analyst expectations for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA.
2. Surging Gold Prices: The significant rally in gold prices, which climbed to record highs above $4,000 per ounce by early October 2025 and averaged $3,539 per ounce in Q3 (up 41% year-over-year), substantially boosted Newmont's profitability as the world's largest gold producer.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NEM Return | 40% | 7% | -21% | -9% | -8% | 147% | 148% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -7% | -11% | 8% | 18% | 142% | 236% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NEM Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 48% | 42% | 58% | 52% | 82% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NEM Max Drawdown | -9% | -9% | -37% | -26% | -28% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -21% | -32% | -19% | -19% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AEM, FNV, KGC, NEM, B. See NEM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NEM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 161.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 561 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AEM, FNV, KGC, NEM, B
In The Past
Newmont's stock fell -60.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -60.3% loss requires a 151.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NEM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 8.8% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.8% | 8.8% | -5.7% |
| 01312024 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 44.2% | 28.0% | -13.5% |
| 02282023 | NEM | Newmont | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -28.7% | -28.8% |
| 08312022 | NEM | Newmont | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | -0.4% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Newmont
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 2,271 | 2,098 | |||
| Boddington | 1,814 | 1,763 | |||
| Ahafo | 1,130 | 1,023 | |||
| Peñasquito | 901 | 2,189 | |||
| Tanami | 867 | 878 | |||
| Merian | 625 | 723 | |||
| Akyem | 574 | 749 | |||
| Yanacocha | 537 | 451 | |||
| Cerro Negro | 510 | 508 | |||
| Porcupine | 503 | 504 | |||
| Éléonore | 453 | 391 | |||
| Cadia | 422 | ||||
| Musselwhite | 351 | 305 | |||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 332 | 333 | |||
| Lihir | 266 | ||||
| Telfer | 152 | ||||
| Brucejack | 72 | ||||
| Red Chris | 32 | ||||
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Gold Sales from Doré Production | 8,490 | 8,534 | 7,975 | ||
| Sales from Concentrate and Other Production | 3,732 | 2,963 | 1,765 | ||
| Total | 11,812 | 11,915 | 12,222 | 11,497 | 9,740 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Other | 9,844 | 8,369 | |||
| Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) | 7,401 | 7,419 | |||
| Cadia | 6,351 | ||||
| Peñasquito | 4,738 | 6,430 | |||
| Brucejack | 4,006 | ||||
| Lihir | 3,909 | ||||
| Ahafo | 2,823 | 2,619 | |||
| Boddington | 2,376 | 2,264 | |||
| Red Chris | 2,178 | ||||
| Yanacocha | 2,117 | 2,225 | |||
| Tanami | 1,896 | 1,585 | |||
| Cerro Negro | 1,646 | 1,659 | |||
| Porcupine | 1,473 | 1,401 | |||
| Akyem | 1,069 | 998 | |||
| Musselwhite | 1,018 | 1,294 | |||
| Merian | 927 | 923 | |||
| Éléonore | 777 | 1,010 | |||
| Telfer | 574 | ||||
| Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mining Company LLC (CC&V) | 383 | 286 | |||
| Total | 55,506 | 38,482 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4222022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
