Tearsheet

MP Materials (MP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $58.27 | Market Cap: $10.2 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

MP Materials (MP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $58.27
Market Cap: $10.2 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -185 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -80%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 50x
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 139%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 154%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
4   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99%
5   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 173%
6   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Show more.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -185 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -80%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 50x
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 139%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 154%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -19%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 173%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why MP Materials' stock moved by -17.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. MP Materials reported lower-than-expected consolidated revenue for the third quarter of 2025. The company announced its Q3 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, with consolidated revenue reaching $53.6 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $54.92 million.

2. The company's Q3 2025 earnings per share missed analyst forecasts, reporting a diluted loss. MP Materials posted a diluted loss per common share of $(0.24) for Q3 2025, which was below the estimated loss per share of $(0.19).

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MP Return-41%-47%-18%-21%290%89%
Peers Return21%2%1%30%20%92%273%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MP Win Rate83%50%58%42%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate38%40%38%48%51%74% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MP Max Drawdown--24%-48%-38%-47%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-17%-26%-7%-15%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KGC, PAAS, ATI, WTS, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven290.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven614 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven17 days148 days

Compare to KGC, PAAS, ATI, WTS, CRML


In The Past

MP Materials's stock fell -74.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/4/2022. A -74.4% loss requires a 290.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About MP Materials (MP)

Better Bets than MP Materials (MP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
MP_4302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04302023MPMP MaterialsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-23.9%-24.2%-39.8%
MP_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302022MPMP MaterialsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.3%-30.0%-31.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
MP_4302023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE04302023MPMP MaterialsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-23.9%-24.2%-39.8%
MP_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09302022MPMP MaterialsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
3.3%-30.0%-31.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MP Materials

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MPKGCPAASATIWTSCRMLMedian
NameMP Mater.Kinross .Pan Amer.ATI Watts Wa.Critical. 
Mkt Price58.7127.1344.4498.37274.978.2851.58
Mkt Cap10.333.016.113.59.2-13.5
Rev LTM2336,4443,1164,5832,354-3,116
Op Inc LTM-1852,608682631447-631
FCF LTM-2302,241680444344-444
FCF 3Y Avg-2251,274204153318-204
CFO LTM-783,348968679387-679
CFO 3Y Avg-12,380528372352-372

Growth & Margins

MPKGCPAASATIWTSCRMLMedian
NameMP Mater.Kinross .Pan Amer.ATI Watts Wa.Critical. 
Rev Chg LTM26.4%32.9%21.1%7.7%4.2%-21.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-18.7%29.5%24.5%8.6%6.5%-8.6%
Rev Chg Q-14.9%25.8%18.3%7.1%12.5%-12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.9%6.1%4.2%1.6%3.0%-3.0%
Op Mgn LTM-79.5%40.5%21.9%13.8%19.0%-19.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-45.2%25.0%9.1%12.4%17.8%-12.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-14.5%1.8%4.1%0.2%0.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-33.7%52.0%31.1%14.8%16.4%-16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-5.3%45.2%19.0%8.4%16.0%-16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-98.8%34.8%21.8%9.7%14.6%-14.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-99.3%23.1%5.3%3.3%14.4%-5.3%

Valuation

MPKGCPAASATIWTSCRMLMedian
NameMP Mater.Kinross .Pan Amer.ATI Watts Wa.Critical. 
Mkt Cap10.333.016.113.59.2-13.5
P/S50.44.73.32.44.0-4.0
P/EBIT-87.711.312.116.121.6-12.1
P/E-99.817.219.725.128.8-19.7
P/CFO-149.79.010.616.424.2-10.6
Total Yield-1.0%6.3%6.5%4.0%4.2%-4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%1.4%0.0%0.7%-0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.4%8.8%1.6%0.9%4.5%-1.6%
D/E0.10.00.10.20.0-0.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.00.1-0.0--0.0

Returns

MPKGCPAASATIWTSCRMLMedian
NameMP Mater.Kinross .Pan Amer.ATI Watts Wa.Critical. 
1M Rtn1.8%16.1%28.6%-0.2%1.4%-24.3%1.6%
3M Rtn-11.0%24.5%31.1%28.6%-0.1%41.5%26.5%
6M Rtn138.9%75.9%68.4%18.5%15.3%471.0%72.1%
12M Rtn154.0%175.6%99.7%64.7%29.6%7.3%82.2%
3Y Rtn74.0%556.7%171.6%216.1%76.1%-171.6%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%16.1%28.7%-0.2%1.4%-24.2%1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-13.9%21.1%27.5%22.1%-6.9%39.2%21.6%
6M Excs Rtn124.1%61.2%53.7%3.8%0.5%456.3%57.4%
12M Excs Rtn165.1%168.0%92.0%49.9%14.9%8.0%71.0%
3Y Excs Rtn15.4%554.2%144.0%178.8%12.7%-144.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Materials253    
Magnetics0    
Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal 0   
Other revenue 103  
Rare earth concentrate 517329  
Product sales   13473
Total25352833213473


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Materials130    
Accretion of asset retirement and environmental obligations-1    
Gain on disposals of long-lived assets, net-6    
Magnetics-7    
Transaction-related and other costs-11    
Initial start-up costs-21    
Corporate expenses and other-21    
Stock-based compensation expense-25    
Depreciation, depletion and amortization-56    
Total-18    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,637,563
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.9%
Average Daily Volume13,329,895
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.85
Basic Shares Quantity175,034,287
Short % of Basic Shares14.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Corbett RyanChief Financial Officer11192025Sell57.7220,0001,154,40011,244,549Form