Gevo (GEVO)


Market Price (10/21/2026): $1.13 | Market Cap: $267.9 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Gevo (GEVO)


Market Price (10/21/2026): $1.13
Market Cap: $267.9 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.5%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%

Key risks
GEVO key risks include [1] significant funding uncertainty for its flagship Net-Zero 1 project due to a history of losses and reliance on conditional financing, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 121%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.5%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -85%
7 Key risks
GEVO key risks include [1] significant funding uncertainty for its flagship Net-Zero 1 project due to a history of losses and reliance on conditional financing, Show more.

GEVO in ETFs

Weight = GEVO's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.01%
ICLN0.20%
XOP0.15%
VTWO0.01%
IWO0.00%
IWN0.00%
+2 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/14/2026

Gevo (GEVO) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Withdrawal of DOE Loan Guarantee Application and Shifting Financing Strategy.

Gevo's stock experienced downward pressure following the company's withdrawal of its loan guarantee application with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing for its ATJ-30 project. This decision, though accompanied by Gevo's plan to pursue a private credit solution, was cited as a reason for an analyst downgrade and likely raised market concerns about project financing, contributing to a negative sentiment during the period.

2. Persistent Analyst Caution Amidst Broader Sector Headwinds.

Despite Gevo reporting better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026), with an adjusted loss of -$0.01 per share against an estimated -$0.02, and revenue of $46.50 million surpassing forecasts of $46.40 million, the positive news did not significantly reverse the downward trend of the stock. The company also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to over $60 million from a previous $30 million. However, the stock's performance reflects a broader market caution, with Gevo's consensus analyst rating remaining "Hold" as of October 13, 2026, from multiple analysts. Concerns regarding the sustainability and diversification of the company's income streams and the volatility in raw material costs within the renewable fuels sector also contributed to this cautious outlook.

Show more
Updated on 10/14/2026

Gevo (GEVO) stock has lost about 25% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Withdrawal of DOE Loan Guarantee Application and Shifting Financing Strategy.

Gevo's stock experienced downward pressure following the company's withdrawal of its loan guarantee application with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing for its ATJ-30 project. This decision, though accompanied by Gevo's plan to pursue a private credit solution, was cited as a reason for an analyst downgrade and likely raised market concerns about project financing, contributing to a negative sentiment during the period.

2. Persistent Analyst Caution Amidst Broader Sector Headwinds.

Despite Gevo reporting better-than-expected financial results for its fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026), with an adjusted loss of -$0.01 per share against an estimated -$0.02, and revenue of $46.50 million surpassing forecasts of $46.40 million, the positive news did not significantly reverse the downward trend of the stock. The company also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to over $60 million from a previous $30 million. However, the stock's performance reflects a broader market caution, with Gevo's consensus analyst rating remaining "Hold" as of October 13, 2026, from multiple analysts. Concerns regarding the sustainability and diversification of the company's income streams and the volatility in raw material costs within the renewable fuels sector also contributed to this cautious outlook.

3. Overall Underperformance Relative to the Market.

Gevo's stock has significantly underperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 20.39% as of September 5, 2026, and a 41.9% return over the twelve months ending October 9, 2026, compared to a +16.6% return for the S&P 500. This indicates that despite some company-specific positive developments, such as the monetization of $70 million in 2026 Section 45Z tax credits and progress in debottlenecking efforts at its North Dakota facility, these factors were not sufficient to counteract the prevailing negative investor sentiment and broader market dynamics affecting the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -24.7% change in GEVO stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610202026Change
Stock Price ($)1.501.13-24.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1741781.8%
P/S Multiple2.01.5-25.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)237237-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-24.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-24.7% 
Market (SPY)3.0%22.4%
Sector (XLB)0.8%8.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -58.6% change in GEVO stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)331202610202026Change
Stock Price ($)2.731.13-58.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)16117810.5%
P/S Multiple4.01.5-62.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)236237-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-58.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-58.6% 
Market (SPY)18.6%15.4%
Sector (XLB)2.9%-0.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -42.3% change in GEVO stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -73.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202510202026Change
Stock Price ($)1.961.13-42.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)80178121.4%
P/S Multiple5.71.5-73.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)233237-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution-42.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-42.3% 
Market (SPY)16.4%20.9%
Sector (XLB)15.9%14.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.0% change in GEVO stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202310202026Change
Stock Price ($)1.191.13-5.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)91781839.5%
P/S Multiple30.91.5-95.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2372370.2%
Cumulative Contribution-5.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-5.0% 
Market (SPY)86.1%22.1%
Sector (XLB)37.5%24.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GEVO Return1%-56%-39%80%-4%-44%-73%
Peers Return30%121%19%-25%43%163%872%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GEVO Win Rate50%42%50%50%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate52%67%54%33%62%76% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GEVO Max Drawdown-71%-67%-54%-58%-64%-59% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-36%-32%-58%-46%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PBF, CVI, CLMT, DK, PARR. See GEVO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/20/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventGEVOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-38.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven126 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-13.3%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven6 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-40.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven354 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-51.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven533 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-64.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven178.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven236 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-50.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven102.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven735 days105 days

Compare to PBF, CVI, CLMT, DK, PARR

In The Past

Gevo's stock fell -38.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventGEVOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-38.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven126 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-40.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven354 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-51.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven533 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-64.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven178.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven236 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-50.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven102.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven735 days105 days

Compare to PBF, CVI, CLMT, DK, PARR

In The Past

Gevo's stock fell -38.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gevo (GEVO)

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) operates as a renewable fuels company, specializing in the development and commercialization of sustainable alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. The company's core mission revolves around achieving zero carbon emissions and significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions by producing cleaner gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel for various industries.

The company offers a diverse range of products, including renewable gasoline, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which are critical for decarbonizing transportation and aviation. Beyond these primary fuels, Gevo's portfolio also encompasses renewable natural gas (RNG), isooctane, isobutanol, isobutylene, ethanol, and valuable co-products like animal feed and protein. Gevo leverages strategic partnerships, such as its alliance with Axens North America, Inc., to advance ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel projects.

Gevo primarily serves markets and customers in the transportation, aviation, and energy sectors that are seeking to reduce their carbon footprint and adopt more sustainable practices. By providing low-carbon fuel and chemical solutions, Gevo positions itself as a key supplier for companies and governments committed to meeting environmental goals and transitioning towards a Net-Zero economy.

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  • The 'Beyond Meat' for fossil fuels, creating sustainable aviation fuel and gasoline from plant-based materials.
  • Like a modern 'Valero Energy' or 'Marathon Petroleum', but refining bio-based materials into zero-carbon jet fuel and gasoline instead of crude oil.

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  • Renewable Fuels: Gevo commercializes sustainable alternatives to traditional gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel to achieve zero carbon emissions.
  • Isooctane: A high-octane renewable fuel component.
  • Isobutanol: A versatile alcohol that can serve as a biofuel, solvent, or chemical intermediate.
  • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): Sustainable natural gas derived from organic waste materials.
  • Isobutylene: A chemical compound used as a building block for various industrial products.
  • Ethanol: A common biofuel and chemical feedstock produced sustainably.
  • Animal Feed and Protein: Valuable co-products generated from their renewable fuel production processes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Gevo, Inc. primarily sells its renewable fuels and chemicals to other companies (B2B).

Major customer companies include:

  • American Airlines (AAL)
  • United Airlines (UAL)
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL)
  • TotalEnergies (TTE)
  • Kolmar Americas, Inc.

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  • Axens North America, Inc.
  • Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Patrick R. Gruber, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Chair of the Board

Dr. Patrick R. Gruber has served as Chief Executive Officer and a director of Gevo, Inc. since 2007 and assumed the role of Executive Chair of the Board in December 2025. He is scheduled to retire as CEO on April 1, 2026. Prior to joining Gevo, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Outlast Technologies, Inc. from 2005 to 2007. Dr. Gruber also co-founded NatureWorks LLC (formerly Cargill Dow, LLC) in 1997, where he held the positions of Vice President, Technology and Operations, and Chief Technology Officer until 2005. With over 30 years of experience, he has focused on developing and commercializing renewable biobased technologies and holds more than 60 US patents. He has received multiple accolades, including the George Washington Carver Award.

Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri, Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Gevo, Inc. on May 21, 2025. He joined the company in August 2022 and previously served as Executive Vice President, Finance, playing a key role in financial strategy and planning. His background includes significant finance roles in the renewable energy and energy sectors at organizations such as Bank of America, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation.

Paul D. Bloom, President

Dr. Paul D. Bloom was appointed President of Gevo, Inc. and a director on its board effective December 9, 2025. He is set to succeed Patrick Gruber as Chief Executive Officer on April 1, 2026. Dr. Bloom joined Gevo in 2021 and has been instrumental in advancing the company's technology and executing its commercial strategy. His previous experience includes working at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), where he developed expertise in establishing and managing new businesses and commercializing renewable resource-based technologies.

L. Lynn Smull, Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the CEO

Mr. L. Lynn Smull transitioned to the role of Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the CEO on May 21, 2025, after serving as the company's Chief Financial Officer. In his current role, he focuses on strategic initiatives and supports the seamless transition for the CFO position.

Christopher Ryan, Co-President and Chief Operating Officer

Dr. Christopher Ryan serves as Co-President and Chief Operating Officer for Gevo, Inc. He has been a long-time Chief Operating Officer for the company and is planning to retire in June 2026.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks for Gevo (GEVO) primarily revolve around its financial viability and its reliance on external factors, followed by the significant challenges in executing its commercialization strategy for renewable fuels.

  1. Financial Viability and Capital Requirements: Gevo has a history of sustained net losses and faces significant uncertainty in achieving or maintaining profitability. The company operates in a capital-intensive industry and requires substantial additional financing to fund its development and commercialization efforts, including large-scale project build-outs like the Net-Zero 1 facility. A failure to secure this capital when needed or on acceptable terms could lead to delays, limitations, or even the termination of its strategic initiatives. Furthermore, raising additional capital through equity or convertible securities carries the risk of significant dilution for existing shareholders.
  2. Dependence on Government Incentives and Regulatory Policies: Gevo's business model and the economic viability of its renewable fuel products, particularly Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), are heavily reliant on government incentives, regulatory credits, and subsidies. These include provisions under the Inflation Reduction Act, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and various state-level programs like the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Any adverse changes, reductions, or delays in these supportive legislative and regulatory frameworks could materially impact Gevo's profitability, competitive position, and the demand for its products. The complexity and potential volatility in monetizing carbon credits also present a risk.
  3. Commercialization and Execution Risks: Successfully scaling up the commercial production of its advanced renewable fuels, such as SAF, presents substantial execution risks for Gevo. These challenges include the complexities of engineering, construction, and navigating regulatory hurdles for new facilities. The company also faces intense competition from established energy companies and other emerging players in the renewable fuels sector, which could affect its market share and pricing power. Additionally, securing a consistent supply of sustainable, low-carbon intensity feedstocks (like corn) at scale and managing feedstock price volatility are critical operational challenges.

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The accelerating adoption and market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and other zero-emission propulsion systems for road transport, which directly reduces the long-term demand for combustible fuels, including Gevo's renewable gasoline and diesel products.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for Gevo's main products and services:

  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): The global sustainable aviation fuel market was valued at USD 2.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 40.09 billion by 2034. North America dominated the market, accounting for 46.43% of the market share in 2025. Other estimates for the global market include USD 2.25 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 171.75 billion by 2035.
  • Renewable Diesel: The global renewable diesel market size was estimated at USD 30.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 57.14 billion by 2033. North America held the largest share of 42.2% of the global market in 2025. Another source indicated a global market size of USD 29.41 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 50.26 billion by 2030.
  • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): The global renewable natural gas market is valued at USD 15.72 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 32.51 billion by 2034. North America dominated the global renewable natural gas market, holding an estimated 35-45% share in 2024.
  • Renewable Gasoline: The global renewable gasoline market size was valued at USD 1.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2.48 billion by 2032. North America currently dominates this market with a 38% market share.
  • Isobutanol: The global isobutanol market size was valued at USD 1.52 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.01 billion by 2034. North America holds a market share of 33%, while Asia Pacific accounts for over 60% of global isobutanol demand in 2023 (in kilo tons).
  • Isooctane: The global Isooctane market expanded from USD 6.27 billion in 2025 to USD 6.79 billion in 2026, with projections showing continued expansion to USD 10.97 billion by 2032. The U.S. market for Isooctane was estimated at US$2.3 Billion in 2024.
  • Isobutylene: The global isobutylene market was valued at USD 29.41 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 37.15 billion by 2031. North America held a significant 23.15% share of the global market in 2025. Other sources estimated the global market size at USD 27.3 billion in 2022, anticipated to grow to USD 38.4 billion by 2030.

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Gevo (NASDAQ: GEVO) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives in the renewable fuels and carbon abatement sectors.

The primary drivers of Gevo's future revenue growth include:

  1. Increased Production and Sales of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Gevo anticipates a substantial boost in revenue from its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects. The Net-Zero 1 (NZ1) project, for instance, is expected to commence initial SAF deliveries in 2025 and is designed to produce approximately 60 million gallons of SAF annually. Gevo also has significant take-or-pay, financeable SAF and hydrocarbon fuel supply agreements in place, totaling approximately 375 million gallons per year, which are expected to generate around $2.3 billion in annual sales. Additionally, the ATJ-30 sustainable aviation fuel initiative remains a central focus, targeting a final investment decision by mid-2026 and projecting 30 million gallons of SAF annually at full capacity.
  2. Expansion of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production and Sales: Gevo's Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) operations are a current and future revenue driver. The company's RNG project in Northwest Iowa is expected to see increased revenue, particularly with the anticipated approval of a favorable California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) carbon intensity (CI) score and the benefit of the biogas Production Tax Credit (PTC) during 2025-2027. The company is also actively exploring further, cost-effective expansions of its RNG production capacity beyond the current 400,000 MMBtu per year.
  3. Monetization of Carbon Abatement and Environmental Credits: Gevo's strategy includes capitalizing on its carbon capture and sequestration efforts through the sale of carbon credits and leveraging governmental incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is particularly beneficial, introducing a SAF blenders tax credit (2023-2024) and a Clean Fuel Production Credit (2025-2027) with potential values up to $1.75 per gallon for domestically produced, net-zero carbon intensity SAF. Gevo's North Dakota operations have already demonstrated success in generating income from carbon sequestration and the sale of clean fuel and voluntary carbon credits, with long-term annual carbon revenues projected to exceed $30 million.
  4. Optimization and Expansion of the North Dakota Facility: The Gevo North Dakota plant is a crucial asset driving revenue growth. Its operational excellence and the production of low-carbon ethanol, carbon sequestration, and RNG are significant contributors. Management has emphasized plans for both incremental and step-change expansions at this facility, including improvements in corn storage, carbon sequestration utilization, and overall energy efficiency, which will further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities.

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Share Repurchases

  • In May 2023, Gevo, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program allowing for the repurchase of up to $25 million of its common stock.

Share Issuance

  • As of March 3, 2026, the number of outstanding shares of Gevo's common stock was 242,820,602.
  • In Q4 2025, Gevo Inc. had 242 million shares outstanding, which was an increase of 0.1% from the prior quarter.
  • The company's Form 10-K for 2025 indicates that raising additional capital through the sale or issuance of equity could dilute the ownership interest of existing shareholders.

Inbound Investments

  • In 2025, Gevo acquired substantially all assets of Red Trail Energy in North Dakota for $210 million, which included an ethanol production plant, a carbon capture and storage well, and pore space leases. This acquisition was funded with cash and a $105 million senior secured term loan, with a related $5 million redeemable non-controlling interest from Orion Infrastructure Capital.
  • Gevo holds a conditional U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee commitment of approximately $1.6 billion for Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) projects, which was extended to April 16, 2026, as Gevo and the DOE evaluate a lower-cost ATJ-30 facility.
  • In April 2023, Gevo entered into a joint development agreement with LG Chem, Ltd.

Capital Expenditures

  • Gevo invested $11.2 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025, marking a 43.1% increase from the previous quarter.
  • Total capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were $30.1 million.
  • For 2026, Gevo plans to deploy approximately $26 million in capital to expand the Gevo North Dakota facility's ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year, enhance energy efficiency, and increase carbon dioxide capture.

Better Bets vs. Gevo (GEVO)

Peer Outperformance in Specialty Chemicals

GEVO has trailed 88% of its 40 Specialty Chemicals peers over 5Y. Specialty Chemicals ranks 11th of 15 industries in Materials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Specialty Chemicals constituents that GEVO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
11%
of 45 industry peers · -56.7% return
3Y
53%
of 43 industry peers · 10.8% return
5Y
13%
of 40 industry peers · -83.4% return
No Specialty Chemicals peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten GEVO by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Materials sector, ranked by 5Y. Specialty Chemicals is GEVO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Copper 7 45.6%124.7%141.0% SCCO 280% · TGB 249% · HBM 221%
Steel 14 22.4%47.5%140.3% STLD 304% · HCC 264% · RS 203%
Gold 35 -2.2%173.1%120.6% IAG 517% · OGC 395% · KGC 311%
Silver 6 21.7%260.7%108.6% AYA 251% · HL 166% · SVM 128%
Aluminum 3 5.5%164.4%60.4% CENX 109% · KALU 60% · AA -18%
Construction Materials 6 -21.2%26.0%41.9% USLM 359% · CRH 89% · VMC 47%
Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers 11 -4.1%7.0%4.8% GEF 48% · SLGN 7% · ATR 5%
Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials 7 15.1%15.4%-4.6% PKG 104% · CCK 14% · SON 0%
Diversified Metals & Mining 23 -65.2%-17.8%-9.1% USAR 33658% · MTRN 243% · MP 8%
Diversified Chemicals 3 6.8%0.5%-18.2% CBT 52% · ASH -18%
Specialty Chemicals ← 41 10.1%7.6%-21.1% NEU 159% · ESI 70% · SXT 56%
Commodity Chemicals 13 -1.1%-25.5%-34.8% HWKN 259% · MEOH 44% · DOW -33%
Precious Metals & Minerals 8 -20.2%153.0%-45.4% PPTA 280%
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 10 -45.3%-54.9%-61.6% CF 117% · NTR 14% · MOS -52%
Paper Products 4 -33.8%-55.8%-75.5%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

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Financials

GEVOPBFCVICLMTDKPARRMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci. 
Mkt Price1.1382.6061.8956.0277.5285.1469.70
Mkt Cap0.39.86.24.94.84.14.8
Rev LTM17834,3738,4724,59112,0568,6198,545
Op Inc LTM-10898350556011,132476
FCF LTM-5774334474667412378
FCF 3Y Avg-8693145-468520689
CFO LTM-161,6575341461,271555545
CFO 3Y Avg-4568841835572346382

Growth & Margins

GEVOPBFCVICLMTDKPARRMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci. 
Rev Chg LTM121.4%13.5%17.9%12.8%11.4%13.2%13.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg187.2%-5.5%-3.9%3.1%-10.2%6.5%-0.4%
Rev Chg Q7.1%56.2%55.5%40.8%47.8%56.8%51.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%13.9%13.0%10.0%12.3%14.3%12.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM79.9%165.5%207.0%122.4%224.2%2,057.0%186.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg40.2%-37.3%13.7%7.7%-46.1%642.7%10.7%
Op Mgn LTM-5.5%2.6%4.1%1.2%5.0%13.1%3.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-185.9%0.4%2.7%0.3%0.5%6.2%0.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%3.4%1.9%1.3%2.5%5.3%2.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-9.2%4.8%6.3%3.2%10.5%6.4%5.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-142.7%1.8%5.0%0.7%4.3%4.1%2.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-31.9%2.2%4.1%1.6%5.5%4.8%3.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-252.4%0.0%1.5%-1.2%0.2%2.4%0.1%

Valuation

GEVOPBFCVICLMTDKPARRMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci. 
Mkt Cap0.39.86.24.94.84.14.8
P/S1.50.30.71.10.40.50.6
P/Op Inc-27.410.917.889.57.93.69.4
P/EBIT-1.44.916.8-76.17.13.54.2
P/E-1.37.290.1-35.921.24.86.0
P/CFO-16.55.911.633.63.77.46.7
Total Yield-79.5%15.1%1.1%-2.8%6.0%20.8%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-22.3%-8.0%4.9%-4.1%2.3%9.9%-0.9%
D/E0.60.30.30.50.70.30.4
Net D/E0.40.20.20.40.60.20.3

Returns

GEVOPBFCVICLMTDKPARRMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci. 
1M Rtn-28.0%7.0%15.3%-5.1%-0.8%0.9%0.1%
3M Rtn-34.7%25.5%75.4%26.8%15.8%5.9%20.7%
6M Rtn-37.9%105.1%99.5%72.2%100.5%38.3%85.8%
12M Rtn-56.7%187.2%78.5%198.3%131.3%137.7%134.5%
3Y Rtn10.8%88.2%114.4%230.1%225.9%161.6%138.0%
1M Excs Rtn-25.3%15.3%17.8%-2.3%5.6%5.2%5.4%
3M Excs Rtn-37.6%26.7%75.9%24.8%15.5%5.1%20.1%
6M Excs Rtn-46.3%96.7%91.0%63.8%92.0%29.9%77.4%
12M Excs Rtn-69.2%180.1%66.6%193.0%118.5%126.2%122.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-66.2%18.2%46.1%153.2%161.4%86.4%66.2%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)1370   
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)1816151 
Gevo61200
GevoFuels000  
Agri-Energy   00
Total161171711


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)420   
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)3-9-4-4-1
GevoFuels-3-4-2  
Gevo-63-78-76-58-42
Agri-Energy   -40-17
Total-20-91-82-103-60


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Gevo North Dakota (ND)300 
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)-1-12-6
GevoFuels-3-4-3
Gevo-58-63-57
Total-33-79-66


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)2710   
GevoFuels235208138  
Gevo124298411573485
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)89781029397
Agri-Energy   3464
Total719584650701645


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$1.13 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.3 
First Trading Date02/09/2011 
Distance from 52W High-59.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$1.48$1.75
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-23.4%-35.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility60.7%62.1%
Downside Capture282.36149.93
Upside Capture23.7336.46
Correlation (S&P 500)31.1%20.1%
GEVO Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.232.261.340.781.021.34
Up Beta-3.30-0.142.541.951.030.71
Down Beta3.664.010.111.541.201.23
Up Capture34%241%77%-51%50%482%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days6152651112337
Down Capture366%340%161%119%118%111%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days14243467125376

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO-54.4%62.1%-1.02-
Sector ETF (XLB)18.2%17.8%0.7813.0%
Equity (SPY)16.8%12.7%0.9319.8%
Gold (GLD)-2.9%29.3%-0.1019.3%
Commodities (DBC)52.5%20.7%1.9317.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%13.8%0.110.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.7%43.6%-0.5019.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO-30.4%90.1%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.7%19.1%0.2433.1%
Equity (SPY)13.6%17.1%0.6134.2%
Gold (GLD)18.1%18.9%0.7714.0%
Commodities (DBC)9.7%19.5%0.3822.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.4%18.9%-0.0331.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.7%51.7%0.3321.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO-40.0%151.7%0.15-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.2%20.7%0.4315.3%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7215.2%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.4%0.606.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3712.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2111.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.9%66.2%1.037.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152026-8.9%
Average Daily Volume3.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity237.1 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/20269.0%12.5%13.9%
5/7/2026-9.9%-17.2%-22.2%
3/5/202613.2%28.6%14.8%
11/10/2025-1.4%-9.9%12.7%
8/11/202559.2%34.4%29.6%
5/13/2025-7.3%-8.9%-0.8%
3/27/2025-9.9%-16.7%-5.6%
11/7/2024-16.3%-21.6%-21.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101111
# Negative121111
Median Positive7.3%14.4%29.2%
Median Negative-6.6%-13.1%-19.5%
Max Positive59.2%42.4%74.6%
Max Negative-16.3%-21.6%-33.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/20269.0%12.5%13.9%
5/7/2026-9.9%-17.2%-22.2%
3/5/202613.2%28.6%14.8%
11/10/2025-1.4%-9.9%12.7%
8/11/202559.2%34.4%29.6%
5/13/2025-7.3%-8.9%-0.8%
3/27/2025-9.9%-16.7%-5.6%
11/7/2024-16.3%-21.6%-21.1%
8/8/20240.0%21.7%30.9%
5/2/2024-0.2%14.4%-1.1%
3/7/2024-4.0%-20.3%-6.9%
11/13/202311.1%14.8%12.0%
8/10/20231.9%-9.6%-15.4%
5/10/2023-5.8%-0.8%29.2%
3/9/20235.6%13.0%-22.4%
8/8/20224.0%11.5%-19.5%
2/24/2022-6.0%0.3%44.3%
11/10/20213.8%-9.3%-24.5%
8/12/2021-8.2%-13.1%21.4%
5/13/202123.9%42.4%74.6%
3/17/2021-10.3%-13.7%-33.0%
11/10/2020-3.8%0.9%64.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101111
# Negative121111
Median Positive7.3%14.4%29.2%
Median Negative-6.6%-13.1%-19.5%
Max Positive59.2%42.4%74.6%
Max Negative-16.3%-21.6%-33.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/13/202510-Q
12/31/202403/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202303/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/14/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/06/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/13/202510-Q
12/31/202403/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202303/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/14/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/13/202110-Q
03/31/202105/14/202110-Q
12/31/202003/18/202110-K
09/30/202011/12/202010-Q
06/30/202008/10/202010-Q
03/31/202005/13/202010-Q
12/31/201903/17/202010-K
09/30/201911/13/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/4/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAReported 60.00 Mil 100.0% RaisedGuidance: 30.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Section 45Z tax credit monetizationReported 70.00 Mil    
2027 Low-carbon ethanol production capacityReported 75.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 75.00 Mil for 2027


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 30.00 Mil -25.0% LoweredGuidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Annualized Adjusted EBITDA Run-rateReported 40.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Annual low-carbon ethanol capacityReported 75.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash Flow from OperationsReported 0    
2026 Cost SavingsReported 3.00 Mil    
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDAReported 40.00 Mil   AffirmedGuidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Carbon Co-product SalesReported3.00 Mil4.00 Mil5.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 4.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Carbon Co-product SalesReported 30.00 Mil    
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported 150.00 Mil    

Insider Activity

Updated 9/4/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell90420261.711,2212,0881,170,969Form
2Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell90420261.711,5142,5892,566,199Form
3Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell90420261.703,3335,6715,650,086Form
4Kettner, David MichaelChief Legal & Emrg Biz OfficerDirectBuy82420261.5512,50019,369428,883Form
5Barber, James JDirectBuy82420261.5450,00077,000184,800Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell90420261.711,2212,0881,170,969Form
2Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell90420261.711,5142,5892,566,199Form
3Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell90420261.703,3335,6715,650,086Form
4Kettner, David MichaelChief Legal & Emrg Biz OfficerDirectBuy82420261.5512,50019,369428,883Form
5Barber, James JDirectBuy82420261.5450,00077,000184,800Form
6Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell80720261.51247,642373,8165,017,258Form
7Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell80720261.5510,25715,8551,060,478Form
8Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell80720261.5418,22328,034727,499Form
9Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell80720261.5531,09648,0682,244,970Form
10Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell61520261.4063,02888,075686,285Form
11Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell61520261.4315,47022,048992,360Form
12Gendenjamts, DavaajargalVP Acctg and TreasurerDirectSell61520261.434,2936,118155,154Form
13Shafer, AndrewChief Mktg Cust & Brnd OfficerDirectSell61520261.439,44313,458444,104Form
14Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell61520261.4335,19650,1611,823,180Form
15Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell61520261.4335,18950,1512,114,140Form
16Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell61520261.40157,563220,8565,006,073Form
17Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell52920261.76186,469328,1486,562,282Form
18Shafer, AndrewChief Mktg Cust & Brnd OfficerDirectSell52920261.7632,66757,487564,986Form
19Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell52920261.7625,10144,1731,252,564Form
20Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell52920261.7731,95856,652982,331Form
21Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell52920261.7687,700154,3342,313,153Form
22Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell52920261.7675,735133,2782,672,411Form
23Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell50120262.005,55011,103541,808Form
24Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell40120262.9629,79788,1754,149,216Form
25Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell40120262.76100,000275,7403,948,426Form
26Mize, Gary WDirectSell31220262.33107,100250,078656,663Form
27Fitzgerald, Lindsay ClintonChief Public Affairs OfficerDirectSell31220262.5120,00050,124531,813Form
28Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell31220262.215,55012,245597,517Form
29Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell12120261.995,0009,940538,369Form
30Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell122320252.195,00010,974605,349Form
31Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell120820252.3173,284169,183626,148Form
32Gendenjamts, DavaajargalVP Acctg and TreasurerDirectSell120520252.322,5605,943139,794Form
33Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell112120251.995,0009,936558,080Form
34Battershell, Carol JaneDirectSell111420252.0275,597152,782562,374Form
35Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell110420252.2829,79767,970651,991Form
36Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell102320252.535,00012,650798,519Form
37Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell101520252.82100,000281,8704,318,074Form
38Amorelli, AngeloDirectSell101520252.50100,000250,2707,363Form
39Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell92220252.015,00010,062645,216Form
40Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell91820252.0175,000150,4351,852,539Form
41Bowron, Kimberly TChief People and IT OfficerDirectSell90520251.631,5302,493784,158Form
42Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell90520251.631,7312,821449,911Form
43Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell90520251.632,0923,4101,627,504Form
44Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell90520251.631,6832,7422,659,243Form
45Gruber, Patrick RChief Executive OfficerDirectSell90520251.631,6422,6766,266,180Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/20/2026