Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
1  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%
2  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.5%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
1 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 139%
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.0%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CLMT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Calumet (CLMT) experienced significant movement between August 31, 2025, and December 9, 2025. This period saw a notable increase, with key factors contributing to its performance.

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. Calumet reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on November 7, 2025, with a net income of $313.4 million, or $3.61 basic income per common share, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company also achieved an Adjusted EBITDA with Tax Attributes of $92.5 million. This turnaround from a net loss in the prior year was a major positive catalyst for the stock.

2. Cost Reduction Initiatives. The company's performance was bolstered by company-wide cost reduction initiatives, which resulted in $61 million of year-over-year operating cost savings through the first nine months of 2025. These initiatives are on track to save $80 million annually.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CLMT Return------12%-12%
Peers Return-44%44%98%18%-18%37%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CLMT Win Rate----60%60% 
Peers Win Rate33%58%75%53%38%72% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CLMT Max Drawdown------59% 
Peers Max Drawdown-70%-3%-2%-17%-22%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DINO, VLO, PSX, MPC, PBF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CLMT has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Calumet (CLMT)

Better Bets than Calumet (CLMT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CLMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.6%-1.6%-1.6%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
18.5%18.5%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.2%4.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.5%3.5%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.6%-1.6%-1.6%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
18.5%18.5%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.2%4.2%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.5%3.5%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Calumet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CLMTDINOVLOPSXMPCPBFMedian
NameCalumet HF Sincl.Valero E.Phillips.Marathon.PBF Ener. 
Mkt Price19.3949.40173.56139.06189.6631.9694.23
Mkt Cap1.79.253.656.357.53.631.4
Rev LTM4,04826,905123,071131,953133,26230,27576,673
Op Inc LTM1427113,0851,7184,734-1,3721,214
FCF LTM-766763,9601,3514,276-1,3331,014
FCF 3Y Avg-2221,4506,9894,0698,2985632,760
CFO LTM-111,1674,8393,4087,391-8682,288
CFO 3Y Avg-401,8767,9266,06010,7831,1383,968

Growth & Margins

CLMTDINOVLOPSXMPCPBFMedian
NameCalumet HF Sincl.Valero E.Phillips.Marathon.PBF Ener. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.0%-9.5%-8.5%-10.7%-6.1%-18.7%-9.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.8%-8.2%-10.3%-6.6%-8.3%-7.1%-7.7%
Rev Chg Q-2.0%0.6%-2.2%-2.9%-0.8%-14.4%-2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.6%0.2%-0.6%-0.8%-0.2%-4.0%-0.6%
Op Mgn LTM3.5%2.6%2.5%1.3%3.6%-4.5%2.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.0%4.5%5.3%3.1%6.0%2.1%3.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM9.5%2.5%0.8%0.7%0.4%-0.4%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.3%4.3%3.9%2.6%5.5%-2.9%3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%6.1%5.7%4.2%7.4%2.6%4.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.9%2.5%3.2%1.0%3.2%-4.4%1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.3%4.6%5.0%2.8%5.7%1.0%3.7%

Valuation

CLMTDINOVLOPSXMPCPBFMedian
NameCalumet HF Sincl.Valero E.Phillips.Marathon.PBF Ener. 
Mkt Cap1.79.253.656.357.53.631.4
P/S0.40.40.40.40.40.10.4
P/EBIT10.713.322.318.68.5-2.912.0
P/E-45.324.835.236.620.3-3.522.5
P/CFO-153.28.410.916.17.9-4.08.1
Total Yield-2.2%7.9%5.5%6.2%6.9%-25.0%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.9%2.7%3.5%1.9%3.6%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-14.7%14.6%7.5%14.3%5.8%14.3%
D/E1.50.30.20.40.60.90.5
Net D/E1.40.20.10.40.50.80.5

Returns

CLMTDINOVLOPSXMPCPBFMedian
NameCalumet HF Sincl.Valero E.Phillips.Marathon.PBF Ener. 
1M Rtn1.0%-8.9%-0.5%1.7%-1.6%-13.4%-1.1%
3M Rtn12.3%-2.4%11.0%7.7%5.2%13.3%9.3%
6M Rtn47.2%37.3%37.3%22.0%19.6%71.5%37.3%
12M Rtn-11.3%33.4%36.1%12.1%28.4%10.5%20.3%
3Y Rtn-15.0%66.0%58.2%89.5%7.5%58.2%
1M Excs Rtn-2.5%-8.9%-2.6%-0.4%-3.0%-14.5%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn4.0%-10.1%2.8%0.9%-1.1%2.3%1.6%
6M Excs Rtn33.2%23.3%23.3%8.0%5.6%57.5%23.3%
12M Excs Rtn-26.4%18.2%21.0%-2.0%16.4%-5.8%7.2%
3Y Excs Rtn--75.9%-23.8%-24.5%0.5%-79.2%-24.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Products and Solutions2,8943,5332,1281,542 
Montana/Renewables994875784505 
Performance Brands311303253234 
Corporate00   
Eliminations-18-25-16-13-141
Fuel Products    2,146
Specialty Products    1,447
Total4,1814,6863,1482,2683,453


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,357,691
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.4%
Average Daily Volume1,018,619
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.20
Basic Shares Quantity86,901,141
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/7/2025-1.6%-6.2% 
8/8/2025-3.6%-7.8%15.8%
5/9/20253.8%13.3%11.0%
1/14/2025-13.8%-27.1%-20.9%
10/24/2024-0.0%0.7%2.9%
8/9/202415.7%46.6%35.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive234
# Negative432
Median Positive9.7%13.3%13.4%
Median Negative-2.6%-7.8%-20.9%
Max Positive15.7%46.6%35.8%
Max Negative-13.8%-27.1%-20.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021