Calumet (CLMT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.6 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Calumet (CLMT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $19.6Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -244 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.4% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -244 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CLMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Calumet (CLMT) stock movement:
1. Significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) Beat in Q3 2025: Calumet reported a net income of $313.4 million, or basic income per common share of $3.61 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of a loss per share of -$0.38. This unexpected strong performance was a primary driver for the stock's positive movement, leading to an 11.25% increase on the day of the announcement.
2. Q3 2025 Revenue Exceeds Expectations: The company's third-quarter 2025 revenue reached $1.08 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion. This demonstrated robust operational performance and contributed to investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLMT Return | - | - | - | - | - | -11% | -11% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 33% | -33% | -1% | 19% | 13% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLMT Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 60% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 48% | 28% | 37% | 37% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLMT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -2% | -46% | -27% | -31% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CLMT has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1761 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Calumet Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Calumet Stock with 24% Return (vs. -26% YTD) [8/25/2025] | Notification | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Calumet (CLMT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Calumet Stock Moved: CLMT Stock Has Lost 14% Since 2024 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| CLMT Stock Up 24% after 5-Day Win Streak | August 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CLMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Calumet
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 80 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1 |
| FCF LTM | -1 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -16 |
| CFO LTM | -1 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -14 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -6.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -3.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | -6.2 |
| P/E | -3.0 |
| P/CFO | -5.4 |
| Total Yield | -16.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -7.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -74.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11052021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |