Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -244 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.0%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163%
2  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.4%
3  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -244 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.0%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 163%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.4%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CLMT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Calumet (CLMT) stock movement:

1. Significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) Beat in Q3 2025: Calumet reported a net income of $313.4 million, or basic income per common share of $3.61 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts of a loss per share of -$0.38. This unexpected strong performance was a primary driver for the stock's positive movement, leading to an 11.25% increase on the day of the announcement.

2. Q3 2025 Revenue Exceeds Expectations: The company's third-quarter 2025 revenue reached $1.08 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion. This demonstrated robust operational performance and contributed to investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CLMT Return------11%-11%
Peers Return13%33%-33%-1%19%13%33%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CLMT Win Rate----60%60% 
Peers Win Rate43%48%28%37%37%36% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CLMT Max Drawdown------59% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-2%-46%-27%-31%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FUL, GEVO, FSI, LOOP, VRDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CLMT has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven617 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-60.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1761 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Calumet (CLMT)

Better Bets than Calumet (CLMT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CLMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Calumet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CLMTFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameCalumet H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Price19.6358.922.336.831.07-6.83
Mkt Cap1.73.20.50.10.1-0.5
Rev LTM4,0703,502803711-80
Op Inc LTM-244349-496-1--1
FCF LTM-200121-920-1--1
FCF 3Y Avg-298220-1091-16--16
CFO LTM-127242-565-1--1
CFO 3Y Avg-52348-556-14--14

Growth & Margins

CLMTFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameCalumet H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.6%-1.3%341.8%-1.5%11,012.0%--1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.5%-1.7%729.7%-2.0%3,661.4%--1.5%
Rev Chg Q-9.4%-2.8%725.3%8.0%-100.0%--2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.6%-0.7%90.8%2.3%-0.2%--0.2%
Op Mgn LTM-6.0%10.0%-60.6%16.0%-13.3%--6.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg0.9%10.5%-494.2%12.9%-13,399.3%-0.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.7%0.2%126.0%3.2%16.5%-3.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.1%6.9%-70.4%13.4%-8.5%--3.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.3%9.8%-303.8%14.1%-12,027.4%--1.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.9%3.5%-114.6%1.0%-10.9%--4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-7.1%6.2%-691.7%3.4%-13,970.5%--7.1%

Valuation

CLMTFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameCalumet H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
Mkt Cap1.73.20.50.10.1-0.5
P/S0.30.93.81.66.4-1.6
P/EBIT-6.210.6-6.410.5-6.4--6.2
P/E-3.028.5-5.320.2-6.1--3.0
P/CFO-10.813.5-5.412.3-74.4--5.4
Total Yield-33.0%4.7%-19.0%5.0%-16.5%--16.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%-49.1%4.4%-12.5%--4.0%
D/E1.70.60.60.10.0-0.6
Net D/E1.60.60.4-0.0-0.1-0.4

Returns

CLMTFULGEVOFSILOOPVRDEMedian
NameCalumet H.B. Ful.Gevo Flexible.Loop Ind.Verde Bi. 
1M Rtn-2.3%2.7%2.6%-23.0%-35.2%--2.3%
3M Rtn17.1%0.3%42.9%-31.1%-32.3%-0.3%
6M Rtn48.4%6.0%104.4%56.7%-31.8%-48.4%
12M Rtn-10.4%-21.4%57.4%78.7%-22.7%--10.4%
3Y Rtn--23.8%8.9%130.6%-61.1%--7.4%
1M Excs Rtn-2.3%2.7%2.7%-23.0%-35.1%--2.3%
3M Excs Rtn9.9%-8.8%37.6%-36.8%-41.7%--8.8%
6M Excs Rtn33.7%-8.7%89.7%41.9%-46.6%-33.7%
12M Excs Rtn-26.5%-35.7%27.7%54.9%-41.3%--26.5%
3Y Excs Rtn--94.3%-55.1%68.2%-132.9%--74.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Specialty Products and Solutions2,8943,5332,1281,542 
Montana/Renewables994875784505 
Performance Brands311303253234 
Corporate000  
Eliminations-18-25-16-13-141
Fuel Products    2,146
Specialty Products    1,447
Total4,1814,6863,1482,2683,453


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,357,691
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.4%
Average Daily Volume1,018,619
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.20
Basic Shares Quantity86,797,123
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021304202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021