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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 342%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -115%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 342%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61%
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -115%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GEVO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement of Gevo (GEVO) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Continued Positive Momentum from Strong Q2 2025 Earnings: Although reported on August 11, 2025, Gevo's better-than-expected Q2 2025 earnings fueled significant investor optimism that extended into the specified period. The company reported a surprising positive Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.01 against a forecasted loss of -$0.07, and revenue of $43.41 million surpassed expectations of $39.55 million. This positive financial performance, particularly driven by carbon credit and clean fuel production credit sales, likely contributed to sustained upward pressure on the stock.

2. Exceeding Q3 2025 Financial Expectations: Gevo continued its positive financial trend by reporting stronger-than-anticipated Q3 2025 results on November 10, 2025. The company announced an EPS of ($0.03), beating analyst estimates of ($0.04), and generated revenue of $42.71 million, exceeding expectations of $26.82 million. This marked the second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, signaling ongoing operational strength and financial improvement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GEVO Return84%1%-56%-39%80%3%-6%
Peers Return-46%27%97%15%-31%82%98%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GEVO Win Rate42%50%42%50%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate22%43%53%43%35%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GEVO Max Drawdown-79%0%-61%-47%-57%-51% 
Peers Max Drawdown-61%-6%-6%-17%-37%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PBF, CVI, DK, PARR, CLMT. See GEVO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGEVOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1346.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-80.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven402.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven173 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-97.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4274.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to PBF, CVI, DK, PARR, CLMT


In The Past

Gevo's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.1% loss requires a 1346.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gevo (GEVO)

Better Bets than Gevo (GEVO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GEVO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Gevo

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GEVOPBFCVIDKPARRCLMTMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Delek US Par Paci.Calumet  
Mkt Price2.3333.7934.3138.1344.6719.6334.05
Mkt Cap0.53.83.42.32.21.72.3
Rev LTM8030,2757,29810,6677,4844,0707,391
Op Inc LTM-49-1,372302-59373-244-54
FCF LTM-92-1,333-146-741167-200-173
FCF 3Y Avg-109563240-215248-29866
CFO LTM-56-868242-130336-127-92
CFO 3Y Avg-551,138532230366-52298

Growth & Margins

GEVOPBFCVIDKPARRCLMTMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Delek US Par Paci.Calumet  
Rev Chg LTM341.8%-18.7%-7.2%-20.5%-10.1%-4.6%-8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg729.7%-7.1%-10.7%-17.2%3.8%-1.5%-4.3%
Rev Chg Q725.3%-14.4%6.1%-5.1%-6.1%-9.4%-5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM90.8%-4.0%1.5%-1.4%-1.7%-2.6%-1.6%
Op Mgn LTM-60.6%-4.5%4.1%-0.6%5.0%-6.0%-2.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-494.2%2.1%6.3%-0.2%5.3%0.9%1.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM126.0%-0.4%8.7%3.9%4.3%-2.7%4.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-70.4%-2.9%3.3%-1.2%4.5%-3.1%-2.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-303.8%2.6%6.0%1.3%4.7%-1.3%1.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-114.6%-4.4%-2.0%-6.9%2.2%-4.9%-4.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-691.7%1.0%2.3%-2.2%3.2%-7.1%-0.6%

Valuation

GEVOPBFCVIDKPARRCLMTMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Delek US Par Paci.Calumet  
Mkt Cap0.53.83.42.32.21.72.3
P/S3.80.10.50.20.20.30.3
P/EBIT-6.4-2.911.0-10.64.4-6.2-4.6
P/E-5.3-3.522.1-3.87.4-3.0-3.3
P/CFO-5.4-4.015.1-14.95.2-10.8-4.7
Total Yield-19.0%-25.0%4.5%-23.3%13.4%-33.0%-21.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.6%0.0%3.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-49.1%5.8%7.3%-12.2%11.7%-5.8%
D/E0.60.90.51.70.81.70.9
Net D/E0.40.80.31.40.71.60.7

Returns

GEVOPBFCVIDKPARRCLMTMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.CVR Ener.Delek US Par Paci.Calumet  
1M Rtn2.6%-3.0%-6.8%-2.0%8.4%-2.3%-2.1%
3M Rtn42.9%22.2%11.1%20.2%27.3%17.1%21.2%
6M Rtn104.4%92.0%46.6%108.6%112.2%48.4%98.2%
12M Rtn57.4%10.8%80.6%110.2%158.8%-10.4%69.0%
3Y Rtn8.9%1.0%20.5%50.7%100.7%-20.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%-3.0%-6.8%-1.9%8.4%-2.3%-2.1%
3M Excs Rtn37.6%15.1%5.4%14.8%25.4%9.9%15.0%
6M Excs Rtn89.7%77.3%31.8%93.9%97.5%33.7%83.5%
12M Excs Rtn27.7%-1.4%63.8%97.1%142.7%-26.5%45.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.1%-86.4%-66.0%-38.3%17.9%--55.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)151   
Gevo20022
GevoFuels0    
Agri-Energy 00422
Total1711624


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
GevoFuels-2    
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)-4-4-1-1 
Gevo-76-58-42-13-12
Agri-Energy -40-17-12-14
Net-Zero   -0 
Total-82-103-60-27-26


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
GevoFuels-3    
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)-6    
Gevo-57    
Total-66    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gevo41157348515292
GevoFuels138    
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)1029397  
Agri-Energy 3464132143
Intercompany eliminations   -132-142
Total65070164515293


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,158,894
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.4%
Average Daily Volume4,263,896
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.54
Basic Shares Quantity232,945,048
Short % of Basic Shares13.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211110202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Shafer AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd Officer11042025Sell2.2829,79767,970651,991Form
1Shafer AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd Officer10232025Sell2.535,00012,650798,519Form
2Ryan Christopher MichaelPresident & COO10152025Sell2.82100,000281,8704,318,074Form