Gevo (GEVO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.3 | Market Cap: $535.8 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Gevo (GEVO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.3Market Cap: $535.8 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Specialty Chemicals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 342% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -115% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 342% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -49 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -61% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -70%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -115% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GEVO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement of Gevo (GEVO) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Continued Positive Momentum from Strong Q2 2025 Earnings: Although reported on August 11, 2025, Gevo's better-than-expected Q2 2025 earnings fueled significant investor optimism that extended into the specified period. The company reported a surprising positive Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.01 against a forecasted loss of -$0.07, and revenue of $43.41 million surpassed expectations of $39.55 million. This positive financial performance, particularly driven by carbon credit and clean fuel production credit sales, likely contributed to sustained upward pressure on the stock.
2. Exceeding Q3 2025 Financial Expectations: Gevo continued its positive financial trend by reporting stronger-than-anticipated Q3 2025 results on November 10, 2025. The company announced an EPS of ($0.03), beating analyst estimates of ($0.04), and generated revenue of $42.71 million, exceeding expectations of $26.82 million. This marked the second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, signaling ongoing operational strength and financial improvement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEVO Return | 84% | 1% | -56% | -39% | 80% | 3% | -6% |
| Peers Return | -46% | 27% | 97% | 15% | -31% | 82% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEVO Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 43% | 53% | 43% | 35% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEVO Max Drawdown | -79% | 0% | -61% | -47% | -57% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -61% | -6% | -6% | -17% | -37% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PBF, CVI, DK, PARR, CLMT. See GEVO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GEVO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1346.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 402.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -97.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4274.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to PBF, CVI, DK, PARR, CLMT
In The Past
Gevo's stock fell -93.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.1% loss requires a 1346.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GEVO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gevo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,391 |
| Op Inc LTM | -54 |
| FCF LTM | -173 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 66 |
| CFO LTM | -92 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 298 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -2.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/EBIT | -4.6 |
| P/E | -3.3 |
| P/CFO | -4.7 |
| Total Yield | -21.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 98.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 69.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 83.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 45.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) | 15 | 1 | |||
| Gevo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| GevoFuels | 0 | ||||
| Agri-Energy | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | |
| Total | 17 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 24 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GevoFuels | -2 | ||||
| Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) | -4 | -4 | -1 | -1 | |
| Gevo | -76 | -58 | -42 | -13 | -12 |
| Agri-Energy | -40 | -17 | -12 | -14 | |
| Net-Zero | -0 | ||||
| Total | -82 | -103 | -60 | -27 | -26 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GevoFuels | -3 | ||||
| Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) | -6 | ||||
| Gevo | -57 | ||||
| Total | -66 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gevo | 411 | 573 | 485 | 152 | 92 |
| GevoFuels | 138 | ||||
| Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) | 102 | 93 | 97 | ||
| Agri-Energy | 34 | 64 | 132 | 143 | |
| Intercompany eliminations | -132 | -142 | |||
| Total | 650 | 701 | 645 | 152 | 93 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Shafer Andrew | Chief Cust Mkt & Brnd Officer | 11042025 | Sell | 2.28 | 29,797 | 67,970 | 651,991 | Form |
| 1 | Shafer Andrew | Chief Cust Mkt & Brnd Officer | 10232025 | Sell | 2.53 | 5,000 | 12,650 | 798,519 | Form |
| 2 | Ryan Christopher Michael | President & COO | 10152025 | Sell | 2.82 | 100,000 | 281,870 | 4,318,074 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |