1. Shell for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)

2. Beyond Meat for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable chemicals

3. ADM for advanced biofuels and sustainable chemicals

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A drop-in jet fuel produced from renewable sources that significantly reduces carbon emissions compared to conventional jet fuel.
• Renewable Diesel: A low-carbon, drop-in replacement for traditional petroleum diesel, made from sustainable feedstocks.
• Renewable Chemicals: Building block chemicals derived from renewable resources used in a wide range of products including solvents, paints, plastics, and fuels.
• Low-Carbon Ethanol: A foundational product and an intermediate feedstock used in the production of their other advanced biofuels and chemicals, offering a lower carbon footprint than traditional ethanol.

Gevo (GEVO) sells primarily to other companies, particularly airlines and other fuel distributors, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable chemicals. The company has secured numerous long-term take-or-pay offtake agreements for future SAF production from its Net-Zero 1 plant and other facilities, which represent its major customer commitments.

Its major customers, based on announced offtake agreements for SAF, include:

• United Airlines (Symbol: UAL)
• American Airlines (Symbol: AAL)
• Delta Air Lines (Symbol: DAL)
• Southwest Airlines (Symbol: LUV)
• Alaska Airlines (Symbol: ALK)

Other significant partners and customers for SAF and renewable fuels have included companies such as Finnair, Aer Lingus (part of International Airlines Group), Japan Airlines, SAS, and Marathon Petroleum, among others.

• Axens North America, Inc.
• Kiewit Corporation
• Linde plc (Symbol: LIN)

Patrick R. Gruber, Chief Executive Officer & Director

Dr. Patrick Gruber has served as Chief Executive Officer and a director of Gevo since 2007. His tenure as CEO is over 18 years as of late 2025. Prior to joining Gevo, from 2005 to 2007, Dr. Gruber was President and Chief Executive Officer of Outlast Technologies, Inc. He also co-founded NatureWorks LLC (formerly Cargill Dow, LLC) and served as Vice President, Technology and Operations, and Chief Technology Officer from 1997 to 2005, where he was responsible for all aspects of the business. Dr. Gruber holds over 50 patents and has received numerous awards, including the Presidential Green Chemistry Award. His career started at Cargill, where he spent 16 years working on biotechnology projects.

Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri, Chief Financial Officer

Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Gevo, Inc. effective May 27, 2025. He has served in various positions with the Company since August 2022, most recently as Executive Vice President, Finance, leading efforts in corporate finance and planning, capital raising, and growth mandates. Before Gevo, from August 2019 to August 2022, Mr. Agiri held finance roles in the renewable energy industry for Bank of America, Pine Gate Renewables, Penn America Energy Holdings, LLC, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation. From June 2009 to August 2019, he held finance, strategic acquisitions and divestitures, and joint venture roles for Anadarko Petroleum Corporation.

Chris M. Ryan, President & Chief Operating Officer

Dr. Chris M. Ryan has served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Gevo since June 2011, and as Chief Technology Officer since September 2012. He previously served Gevo as Executive Vice President, Business Development, starting in June 2009. Prior to joining the Company, he co-founded NatureWorks in 1997. At NatureWorks, he served as Chief Operating Officer from 2008 to 2009 and Chief Technology Officer from 2005 to 2008, where he was involved in the development and commercialization of the company's bio-based polymer. He has over three decades of experience in the biotechnology and renewable energy sectors. Before NatureWorks, he worked for Cargill for 17 years, including several years in a joint venture with Dow Chemical, where they developed a large bio-based plastics business.

Paul D. Bloom, Chief Carbon Officer & Chief Innovation Officer

Paul D. Bloom holds the titles of Chief Carbon Officer and Chief Innovation Officer at Gevo.

Kimberly Bowron, Chief People Officer

Kimberly Bowron serves as the Chief People Officer at Gevo.

The key risks to Gevo's business are primarily centered around its financial viability, reliance on a complex regulatory environment, and intense competition in the renewable fuels sector.

1. Financial Challenges and Capital Needs: Gevo has a history of incurring significant net losses and negative operating margins, leading to substantial accumulated deficits. The company's business is capital-intensive, requiring considerable external financing to fund its growth strategy, including the development and construction of large-scale projects like Net-Zero 1 (NZ1). There is a risk that Gevo may not be able to raise necessary capital on acceptable terms or obtain required stockholder approvals for share issuances, which could delay or halt its development and commercialization efforts. Furthermore, a significant conditional loan commitment for the NZ1 project, while substantial, remains subject to various conditions, including environmental reviews and potential impacts from changes in administration policies, creating uncertainty about its eventual funding.
2. Regulatory and Market Dependence: Gevo operates in an industry heavily influenced by government regulations, policies, mandates, subsidies, and tax incentives. Any adverse changes in these regulations or a reduction in government support for renewable fuels could materially impact Gevo's business and profitability. A substantial portion of Gevo's revenue is dependent on the fluctuating value of carbon credits under programs like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which are subject to market forces beyond the company's control. There is a risk that the supply of low-carbon alternative fuels could outstrip demand, leading to a decline in the value of these crucial carbon credits. The company also faces uncertainties regarding the final approval of its carbon intensity pathway under California's low carbon fuel standard.
3. Competition and Commercialization Challenges: Gevo operates in a highly competitive renewable fuels and chemicals sector, facing both established industry players and new entrants. Many of these competitors, particularly large energy giants, possess significantly greater financial resources, existing refining infrastructure, and technical expertise, which could lead to increased pricing pressures, reduced sales volumes, and decreased profitability for Gevo. The successful commercialization of Gevo's alcohol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) projects and other new technologies also carries inherent risks, and the company may face challenges in achieving long-term competitive advantages and successfully performing under its offtake and sales agreements.

The clear emerging threat for Gevo is the accelerating development and investment in Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels, also known as e-fuels. While Gevo focuses on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from biomass, PtL technology offers a fundamentally different pathway, synthesizing fuels directly from renewable electricity, water, and captured carbon dioxide. This approach bypasses agricultural feedstocks entirely, potentially mitigating concerns around land use, food security, and feedstock availability that can sometimes be associated with bio-based fuels.

There is increasing evidence of this threat:

• Significant Investment: Major energy companies, airlines, and automotive manufacturers are investing heavily in PtL research, development, and pilot projects globally (e.g., Porsche in Chile, Siemens Energy).
• Policy Support: Regulatory bodies, particularly in the European Union (e.g., ReFuelEU Aviation), are starting to mandate specific blending targets for e-fuels, indicating a strategic preference for this pathway due to its potential for ultra-low carbon intensity and feedstock independence.
• Scalability Potential: Although currently more expensive and less scaled than bio-based SAF, PtL offers theoretical scalability that is not constrained by agricultural land or biomass supply, posing a long-term competitive challenge to biomass-dependent producers like Gevo if costs decrease rapidly.

This situation mirrors historical disruptions where a new technology or business model offers a fundamentally different solution that eventually undermines existing approaches, even if not immediately superior in all aspects.

Gevo (symbol: GEVO) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily focusing on sustainable aviation fuel, isobutanol, and renewable chemicals.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The global sustainable aviation fuel market is rapidly expanding. In 2024, the market was valued between approximately USD 0.9 billion and USD 1.78 billion. Projections indicate significant growth, with the market expected to reach around USD 15.85 billion by 2030, USD 25 billion by 2030, USD 25.62 billion by 2030, USD 60.54 billion by 2033, and potentially USD 78.8 billion by 2034. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be between 46.2% and 65.5% from 2025 to 2034.

Isobutanol

The global market for isobutanol, which Gevo utilizes as a building block for many of its products, was valued at approximately USD 1.02 billion to USD 1.5 billion in 2023-2024. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 1.9 billion to USD 2.4 billion by 2030-2033, at a CAGR ranging from 5.27% to 7.8% during the forecast periods.

Renewable Chemicals

The broader global renewable chemicals market, encompassing various bio-based products, was valued between approximately USD 117.86 billion (in 2021) and USD 155.3 billion (in 2024). This market is anticipated to reach between USD 320.0 billion and USD 424.99 billion by 2032-2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.81% to 11.5% from 2024-2025.

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Gevo (GEVO) over the next 2-3 years:

1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production from Net-Zero 1 Project: Gevo's Net-Zero 1 project, backed by a conditional loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy, is anticipated to be a significant driver of future revenue through the production and sale of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The company has already secured multi-year offtake agreements for carbon abatement attributes from SAF with partners like Future Energy Global, which will support the financing and construction of this facility, designed to produce 60 million gallons per year of SAF.
2. Growth in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and Environmental Attributes Sales: Gevo currently generates revenue from its dairy-based renewable natural gas (RNG) facility through RNG sales and the associated environmental attributes. The company expects a lower Carbon Intensity (CI) score upon receiving final pathway approval under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Program, which is projected to increase the value of its environmental attribute sales. The acquisition of Red Trail Energy's assets is also expected to enhance carbon abatement capabilities and contribute to positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, alongside Gevo's RNG and other businesses.
3. Expansion of Carbon Abatement and Verification Services through Verity: Gevo's Verity subsidiary is focused on tracking, measuring, and verifying the carbon footprint of Gevo's business systems and has established cooperation agreements with other ethanol producers. This segment is expanding its carbon business to include carbon removal credits (CORCs), creating a new stream of repeatable revenue by providing transparency and accountability in measuring various attributes throughout the supply chain.
4. Monetization of Clean Fuel Production Credits (45Z Tax Credits): Gevo is actively leveraging Clean Fuel Production Credits (45Z tax credits) from its ethanol production. The company has entered into agreements to sell these tax credits, which are expected to enhance its financial position and strengthen its market presence in the renewable energy sector, providing a recurring annual revenue stream.
5. Diversification into Renewable Chemicals and Materials: Beyond fuels, Gevo's innovative technology enables the production of sustainable ingredients for various chemicals and materials, including plastics like polyester. This capability presents a potential for future revenue growth through the launch and expansion of new product lines in the renewable chemicals market.

Share Repurchases

• Gevo's board of directors authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $15 million over a one-year period.
• The company expects to fund the stock repurchase program with existing cash and cash equivalents.
• As of Q2 2025, common stock repurchases amounted to approximately $4.064 million.

Share Issuance

• In 2021, Gevo raised approximately $123 million through the issuance of common stock and warrants.
• In 2022, Gevo raised an additional $100 million by issuing senior convertible notes.
• In January 2024, Gevo announced plans to raise $750 million from a mixed shelf offering, including up to $500 million via an at-the-market common stock offering.

Inbound Investments

• Orion Infrastructure Capital (OIC), a private investment firm, provided $105 million in a senior secured term loan and $5 million in equity to fund Gevo's acquisition of Red Trail Energy assets.
• Gevo North Dakota sold its remaining 2025 45Z Production Tax Credits for $30 million, bringing total sales for the year to $52 million.
• Gevo secured a conditional commitment for a substantial loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy for its ATJ-60 project.

Outbound Investments

• In January 2025, Gevo completed the acquisition of Red Trail Energy's assets in North Dakota for $210 million, adjusted to $208.4 million.
• In October 2024, Gevo licensed its ETO technology to Axens to accelerate its commercialization for fuels.

Capital Expenditures

• Capital expenditures in the last 12 months were approximately $35.45 million.
• Gevo's forecasted capital expenditures are $51.08 million for 2025, $280 million for 2026, and $160 million for 2027.
• The primary focus of capital expenditures includes developing and operating production facilities, with emphasis on the North Dakota facility, renewable natural gas production, and the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) 60 project.