Gevo (GEVO)


Market Price (7/22/2026): $1.73 | Market Cap: $409.7 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Gevo (GEVO)


Market Price (7/22/2026): $1.73
Market Cap: $409.7 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Specialty Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 315%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -59%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.6%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%

Key risks
GEVO key risks include [1] significant funding uncertainty for its flagship Net-Zero 1 project due to a history of losses and reliance on conditional financing, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 315%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, and Advanced Biofuels for Road Transport.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.6%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13%
8 Key risks
GEVO key risks include [1] significant funding uncertainty for its flagship Net-Zero 1 project due to a history of losses and reliance on conditional financing, Show more.

GEVO in ETFs

Weight = GEVO's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.01%
XOP0.42%
IWN0.02%
VTWO0.01%
IWO0.00%
IWV0.00%

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/21/2026

Gevo (GEVO) stock has lost about 35% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Gevo experienced a significant earnings miss and revenue shortfall for fiscal Q1 2026.

The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.05, which missed analysts' expectations of -$0.02 by 150.00%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter was $42.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $44.90 million.

2. Analysts reacted to company performance with downgrades and reduced price targets.

Following the Q1 2026 results and operational updates, several analysts adjusted their outlooks for Gevo. UBS, for example, lowered its price target for Gevo to $2.00 from $2.25 in May 2026, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Similarly, Northland Capital Markets reduced its price target to $3.50 from $3.75 in April 2026, though it kept an "Outperform" rating. Wall Street Zen also downgraded Gevo from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" on May 10, 2026.

Show more
Updated on 7/21/2026

Gevo (GEVO) stock has lost about 35% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Gevo experienced a significant earnings miss and revenue shortfall for fiscal Q1 2026.

The company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.05, which missed analysts' expectations of -$0.02 by 150.00%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter was $42.95 million, falling short of analyst estimates of $44.90 million.

2. Analysts reacted to company performance with downgrades and reduced price targets.

Following the Q1 2026 results and operational updates, several analysts adjusted their outlooks for Gevo. UBS, for example, lowered its price target for Gevo to $2.00 from $2.25 in May 2026, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Similarly, Northland Capital Markets reduced its price target to $3.50 from $3.75 in April 2026, though it kept an "Outperform" rating. Wall Street Zen also downgraded Gevo from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" on May 10, 2026.

3. Increased capital expenditures and financing uncertainty for Project Northstar impacted investor sentiment.

The estimated construction capital expenditure for Project Northstar (ATJ-30) rose by approximately $100 million, with a total estimated cost of ~$600 million ±10%, following the completion of its Front-End Loading 3 (FEL-3) phase. Furthermore, the financing for a larger expansion of the North Dakota facility, intended to produce around 150 million gallons per year of low-carbon ethanol, is targeted for completion in the second half of 2026, contributing to ongoing uncertainty among investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -36.6% change in GEVO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267212026Change
Stock Price ($)2.731.73-36.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1611748.6%
P/S Multiple4.02.3-41.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)236237-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-36.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-36.6% 
Market (SPY)15.1%6.2%
Sector (XLB)0.3%-14.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -13.5% change in GEVO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257212026Change
Stock Price ($)2.001.73-13.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12117444.2%
P/S Multiple3.82.3-39.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)233237-1.8%
Cumulative Contribution-13.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO-13.5% 
Market (SPY)10.0%8.6%
Sector (XLB)11.0%2.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 31.1% change in GEVO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 314.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020257212026Change
Stock Price ($)1.321.7331.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)42174314.9%
P/S Multiple7.32.3-67.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)232237-2.0%
Cumulative Contribution31.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO31.1% 
Market (SPY)22.1%19.7%
Sector (XLB)15.8%18.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.8% change in GEVO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 3386.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020237212026Change
Stock Price ($)1.521.7313.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)51743386.3%
P/S Multiple72.12.3-96.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2372370.2%
Cumulative Contribution13.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEVO13.8% 
Market (SPY)74.8%22.4%
Sector (XLB)27.6%25.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GEVO Return1%-56%-39%80%-4%-14%-60%
Peers Return30%121%19%-25%43%107%666%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%98%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GEVO Win Rate50%42%50%50%42%29% 
Peers Win Rate52%67%54%33%62%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GEVO Max Drawdown-71%-67%-54%-58%-64%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-36%-32%-58%-46%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PBF, CLMT, DK, PARR, CVI. See GEVO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/21/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventGEVOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-38.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven126 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-13.3%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven6 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-40.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven354 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-51.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven533 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-64.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven178.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven236 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-50.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven102.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven735 days105 days

Compare to PBF, CLMT, DK, PARR, CVI

In The Past

Gevo's stock fell -38.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventGEVOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-38.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.7%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven126 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-40.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven354 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-51.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven103.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven533 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-64.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven178.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven236 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-50.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven102.7%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven735 days105 days

Compare to PBF, CLMT, DK, PARR, CVI

In The Past

Gevo's stock fell -38.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 63.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Gevo (GEVO)

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) operates as a renewable fuels company, specializing in the development and commercialization of sustainable alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. The company's core mission revolves around achieving zero carbon emissions and significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions by producing cleaner gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel for various industries.

The company offers a diverse range of products, including renewable gasoline, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which are critical for decarbonizing transportation and aviation. Beyond these primary fuels, Gevo's portfolio also encompasses renewable natural gas (RNG), isooctane, isobutanol, isobutylene, ethanol, and valuable co-products like animal feed and protein. Gevo leverages strategic partnerships, such as its alliance with Axens North America, Inc., to advance ethanol-to-jet technology and sustainable aviation fuel projects.

Gevo primarily serves markets and customers in the transportation, aviation, and energy sectors that are seeking to reduce their carbon footprint and adopt more sustainable practices. By providing low-carbon fuel and chemical solutions, Gevo positions itself as a key supplier for companies and governments committed to meeting environmental goals and transitioning towards a Net-Zero economy.

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  • The 'Beyond Meat' for fossil fuels, creating sustainable aviation fuel and gasoline from plant-based materials.
  • Like a modern 'Valero Energy' or 'Marathon Petroleum', but refining bio-based materials into zero-carbon jet fuel and gasoline instead of crude oil.

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  • Renewable Fuels: Gevo commercializes sustainable alternatives to traditional gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel to achieve zero carbon emissions.
  • Isooctane: A high-octane renewable fuel component.
  • Isobutanol: A versatile alcohol that can serve as a biofuel, solvent, or chemical intermediate.
  • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): Sustainable natural gas derived from organic waste materials.
  • Isobutylene: A chemical compound used as a building block for various industrial products.
  • Ethanol: A common biofuel and chemical feedstock produced sustainably.
  • Animal Feed and Protein: Valuable co-products generated from their renewable fuel production processes.

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Gevo, Inc. primarily sells its renewable fuels and chemicals to other companies (B2B).

Major customer companies include:

  • American Airlines (AAL)
  • United Airlines (UAL)
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL)
  • TotalEnergies (TTE)
  • Kolmar Americas, Inc.

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  • Axens North America, Inc.
  • Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR)

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Patrick R. Gruber, Chief Executive Officer, Executive Chair of the Board

Dr. Patrick R. Gruber has served as Chief Executive Officer and a director of Gevo, Inc. since 2007 and assumed the role of Executive Chair of the Board in December 2025. He is scheduled to retire as CEO on April 1, 2026. Prior to joining Gevo, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Outlast Technologies, Inc. from 2005 to 2007. Dr. Gruber also co-founded NatureWorks LLC (formerly Cargill Dow, LLC) in 1997, where he held the positions of Vice President, Technology and Operations, and Chief Technology Officer until 2005. With over 30 years of experience, he has focused on developing and commercializing renewable biobased technologies and holds more than 60 US patents. He has received multiple accolades, including the George Washington Carver Award.

Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri, Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Oluwagbemileke (Leke) Agiri was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Gevo, Inc. on May 21, 2025. He joined the company in August 2022 and previously served as Executive Vice President, Finance, playing a key role in financial strategy and planning. His background includes significant finance roles in the renewable energy and energy sectors at organizations such as Bank of America, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation.

Paul D. Bloom, President

Dr. Paul D. Bloom was appointed President of Gevo, Inc. and a director on its board effective December 9, 2025. He is set to succeed Patrick Gruber as Chief Executive Officer on April 1, 2026. Dr. Bloom joined Gevo in 2021 and has been instrumental in advancing the company's technology and executing its commercial strategy. His previous experience includes working at Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), where he developed expertise in establishing and managing new businesses and commercializing renewable resource-based technologies.

L. Lynn Smull, Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the CEO

Mr. L. Lynn Smull transitioned to the role of Executive Vice President and Senior Advisor to the CEO on May 21, 2025, after serving as the company's Chief Financial Officer. In his current role, he focuses on strategic initiatives and supports the seamless transition for the CFO position.

Christopher Ryan, Co-President and Chief Operating Officer

Dr. Christopher Ryan serves as Co-President and Chief Operating Officer for Gevo, Inc. He has been a long-time Chief Operating Officer for the company and is planning to retire in June 2026.

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The key risks for Gevo (GEVO) primarily revolve around its financial viability and its reliance on external factors, followed by the significant challenges in executing its commercialization strategy for renewable fuels.

  1. Financial Viability and Capital Requirements: Gevo has a history of sustained net losses and faces significant uncertainty in achieving or maintaining profitability. The company operates in a capital-intensive industry and requires substantial additional financing to fund its development and commercialization efforts, including large-scale project build-outs like the Net-Zero 1 facility. A failure to secure this capital when needed or on acceptable terms could lead to delays, limitations, or even the termination of its strategic initiatives. Furthermore, raising additional capital through equity or convertible securities carries the risk of significant dilution for existing shareholders.
  2. Dependence on Government Incentives and Regulatory Policies: Gevo's business model and the economic viability of its renewable fuel products, particularly Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), are heavily reliant on government incentives, regulatory credits, and subsidies. These include provisions under the Inflation Reduction Act, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and various state-level programs like the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Any adverse changes, reductions, or delays in these supportive legislative and regulatory frameworks could materially impact Gevo's profitability, competitive position, and the demand for its products. The complexity and potential volatility in monetizing carbon credits also present a risk.
  3. Commercialization and Execution Risks: Successfully scaling up the commercial production of its advanced renewable fuels, such as SAF, presents substantial execution risks for Gevo. These challenges include the complexities of engineering, construction, and navigating regulatory hurdles for new facilities. The company also faces intense competition from established energy companies and other emerging players in the renewable fuels sector, which could affect its market share and pricing power. Additionally, securing a consistent supply of sustainable, low-carbon intensity feedstocks (like corn) at scale and managing feedstock price volatility are critical operational challenges.

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The accelerating adoption and market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and other zero-emission propulsion systems for road transport, which directly reduces the long-term demand for combustible fuels, including Gevo's renewable gasoline and diesel products.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for Gevo's main products and services:

  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): The global sustainable aviation fuel market was valued at USD 2.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 40.09 billion by 2034. North America dominated the market, accounting for 46.43% of the market share in 2025. Other estimates for the global market include USD 2.25 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 171.75 billion by 2035.
  • Renewable Diesel: The global renewable diesel market size was estimated at USD 30.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 57.14 billion by 2033. North America held the largest share of 42.2% of the global market in 2025. Another source indicated a global market size of USD 29.41 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 50.26 billion by 2030.
  • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): The global renewable natural gas market is valued at USD 15.72 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 32.51 billion by 2034. North America dominated the global renewable natural gas market, holding an estimated 35-45% share in 2024.
  • Renewable Gasoline: The global renewable gasoline market size was valued at USD 1.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2.48 billion by 2032. North America currently dominates this market with a 38% market share.
  • Isobutanol: The global isobutanol market size was valued at USD 1.52 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 3.01 billion by 2034. North America holds a market share of 33%, while Asia Pacific accounts for over 60% of global isobutanol demand in 2023 (in kilo tons).
  • Isooctane: The global Isooctane market expanded from USD 6.27 billion in 2025 to USD 6.79 billion in 2026, with projections showing continued expansion to USD 10.97 billion by 2032. The U.S. market for Isooctane was estimated at US$2.3 Billion in 2024.
  • Isobutylene: The global isobutylene market was valued at USD 29.41 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 37.15 billion by 2031. North America held a significant 23.15% share of the global market in 2025. Other sources estimated the global market size at USD 27.3 billion in 2022, anticipated to grow to USD 38.4 billion by 2030.

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Gevo (NASDAQ: GEVO) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key initiatives in the renewable fuels and carbon abatement sectors.

The primary drivers of Gevo's future revenue growth include:

  1. Increased Production and Sales of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Gevo anticipates a substantial boost in revenue from its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects. The Net-Zero 1 (NZ1) project, for instance, is expected to commence initial SAF deliveries in 2025 and is designed to produce approximately 60 million gallons of SAF annually. Gevo also has significant take-or-pay, financeable SAF and hydrocarbon fuel supply agreements in place, totaling approximately 375 million gallons per year, which are expected to generate around $2.3 billion in annual sales. Additionally, the ATJ-30 sustainable aviation fuel initiative remains a central focus, targeting a final investment decision by mid-2026 and projecting 30 million gallons of SAF annually at full capacity.
  2. Expansion of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production and Sales: Gevo's Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) operations are a current and future revenue driver. The company's RNG project in Northwest Iowa is expected to see increased revenue, particularly with the anticipated approval of a favorable California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) carbon intensity (CI) score and the benefit of the biogas Production Tax Credit (PTC) during 2025-2027. The company is also actively exploring further, cost-effective expansions of its RNG production capacity beyond the current 400,000 MMBtu per year.
  3. Monetization of Carbon Abatement and Environmental Credits: Gevo's strategy includes capitalizing on its carbon capture and sequestration efforts through the sale of carbon credits and leveraging governmental incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is particularly beneficial, introducing a SAF blenders tax credit (2023-2024) and a Clean Fuel Production Credit (2025-2027) with potential values up to $1.75 per gallon for domestically produced, net-zero carbon intensity SAF. Gevo's North Dakota operations have already demonstrated success in generating income from carbon sequestration and the sale of clean fuel and voluntary carbon credits, with long-term annual carbon revenues projected to exceed $30 million.
  4. Optimization and Expansion of the North Dakota Facility: The Gevo North Dakota plant is a crucial asset driving revenue growth. Its operational excellence and the production of low-carbon ethanol, carbon sequestration, and RNG are significant contributors. Management has emphasized plans for both incremental and step-change expansions at this facility, including improvements in corn storage, carbon sequestration utilization, and overall energy efficiency, which will further enhance its revenue-generating capabilities.

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Share Repurchases

  • In May 2023, Gevo, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program allowing for the repurchase of up to $25 million of its common stock.

Share Issuance

  • As of March 3, 2026, the number of outstanding shares of Gevo's common stock was 242,820,602.
  • In Q4 2025, Gevo Inc. had 242 million shares outstanding, which was an increase of 0.1% from the prior quarter.
  • The company's Form 10-K for 2025 indicates that raising additional capital through the sale or issuance of equity could dilute the ownership interest of existing shareholders.

Inbound Investments

  • In 2025, Gevo acquired substantially all assets of Red Trail Energy in North Dakota for $210 million, which included an ethanol production plant, a carbon capture and storage well, and pore space leases. This acquisition was funded with cash and a $105 million senior secured term loan, with a related $5 million redeemable non-controlling interest from Orion Infrastructure Capital.
  • Gevo holds a conditional U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee commitment of approximately $1.6 billion for Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) projects, which was extended to April 16, 2026, as Gevo and the DOE evaluate a lower-cost ATJ-30 facility.
  • In April 2023, Gevo entered into a joint development agreement with LG Chem, Ltd.

Capital Expenditures

  • Gevo invested $11.2 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025, marking a 43.1% increase from the previous quarter.
  • Total capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were $30.1 million.
  • For 2026, Gevo plans to deploy approximately $26 million in capital to expand the Gevo North Dakota facility's ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year, enhance energy efficiency, and increase carbon dioxide capture.

Better Bets vs. Gevo (GEVO)

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

GEVOPBFCLMTDKPARRCVIMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci.CVR Ener. 
Mkt Price1.7366.0544.1767.1980.4035.4055.11
Mkt Cap0.47.73.84.03.93.63.9
Rev LTM17430,1704,17310,7347,5437,4957,519
Op Inc LTM-8-238-626559216881
FCF LTM-44-68444642556836
FCF 3Y Avg-89-441-9866177148-11
CFO LTM-10260521,059406403331
CFO 3Y Avg-46181-4516309438245

Growth & Margins

GEVOPBFCLMTDKPARRCVIMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci.CVR Ener. 
Rev Chg LTM314.9%-4.3%-0.1%-5.6%-2.5%1.4%-1.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg234.2%-13.5%-3.2%-17.2%-0.1%-11.1%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q47.5%11.9%3.6%0.4%4.5%20.3%8.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.6%2.9%0.9%0.1%1.1%4.7%2.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM89.7%81.5%95.5%162.6%6,453.6%185.3%129.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg31.4%-53.3%-6.5%-87.5%2,102.2%16.1%4.8%
Op Mgn LTM-4.6%-0.8%-0.1%2.5%7.9%2.2%1.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-227.4%-0.2%1.0%-0.1%4.3%3.3%0.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.1%2.3%-1.5%-0.5%1.0%-0.3%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-6.0%0.9%1.2%9.9%5.4%5.4%3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-172.6%0.4%-0.1%4.1%3.9%5.3%2.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-25.0%-2.3%0.1%4.3%3.4%0.9%0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-320.8%-1.5%-2.4%0.2%2.2%1.5%-0.7%

Valuation

GEVOPBFCLMTDKPARRCVIMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci.CVR Ener. 
Mkt Cap0.47.73.84.03.93.63.9
P/S2.30.30.90.40.50.50.5
P/Op Inc-50.8-32.5-619.815.36.621.2-13.0
P/EBIT-32.110.0-40.812.26.019.08.0
P/E-12.117.5-20.4-78.88.6-84.7-16.2
P/CFO-39.029.873.93.89.68.89.2
Total Yield-8.3%7.3%-4.9%0.3%11.7%-1.2%-0.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-44.8%-15.6%--4.1%9.2%5.5%-4.1%
D/E0.40.50.60.80.30.50.5
Net D/E0.20.40.60.60.30.40.4

Returns

GEVOPBFCLMTDKPARRCVIMedian
NameGevo PBF Ener.Calumet Delek US Par Paci.CVR Ener. 
1M Rtn12.3%77.1%35.3%62.0%58.0%29.2%46.7%
3M Rtn-4.9%63.4%35.8%73.1%30.6%13.7%33.2%
6M Rtn-11.3%117.7%114.6%154.9%118.2%55.4%116.2%
12M Rtn16.9%178.2%167.0%179.9%148.2%25.0%157.6%
3Y Rtn4.2%67.0%160.3%198.1%173.7%22.9%113.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.2%77.0%35.2%61.9%57.9%29.1%46.5%
3M Excs Rtn-9.5%70.5%32.1%72.2%30.3%12.0%31.2%
6M Excs Rtn-22.1%118.8%109.1%137.6%109.9%44.2%109.5%
12M Excs Rtn-8.4%161.1%154.4%162.1%132.6%4.9%143.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-59.2%15.4%93.6%163.6%132.8%-31.5%54.5%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)137    
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)1816151 
Gevo61200
GevoFuels00   
Agri-Energy  000
Total161171711


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)42    
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)3-9-4-4-1
GevoFuels-3-4   
Gevo-63-78-65-58-33
Agri-Energy  -13-40-17
Net-Zero    -9
Total-20-91-82-103-60


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Gevo North Dakota (ND)30 
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)-1-12
GevoFuels-3-4
Gevo-58-63
Total-33-79


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Gevo North Dakota (ND)271    
GevoFuels235208   
Gevo124298520573485
Gevo Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)897810293118
Agri-Energy  293464
Total719584650701666


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$1.73 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.4 
First Trading Date02/09/2011 
Distance from 52W High-37.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$1.59$1.98
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA9.1%-12.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility57.1%86.2%
Downside Capture57.8196.99
Upside Capture20.1994.51
Correlation (SPY)15.3%19.5%
GEVO Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.420.980.410.451.431.37
Up Beta2.490.491.120.802.010.69
Down Beta1.311.782.391.211.631.30
Up Capture-5%-16%-112%-21%102%527%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days8172557116337
Down Capture208%165%70%38%106%111%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days12213460119377

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO10.9%86.2%0.45-
Sector ETF (XLB)12.7%17.6%0.5316.8%
Equity (SPY)20.3%12.6%1.1919.4%
Gold (GLD)21.6%28.1%0.6911.8%
Commodities (DBC)31.4%19.1%1.3015.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)15.0%14.0%0.765.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.6%42.9%-1.2520.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO-23.0%92.3%0.12-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.0%19.0%0.2133.4%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5833.6%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.7613.1%
Commodities (DBC)8.9%19.5%0.3523.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.9%0.0529.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.9%53.4%0.4620.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEVO
GEVO-38.8%152.7%0.17-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.0%20.6%0.4315.2%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7215.0%
Gold (GLD)11.2%16.1%0.576.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%17.9%0.3212.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2111.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.7%66.2%0.997.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 61520262.8%
Average Daily Volume4.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity236.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 7/15/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/2026-9.9%-17.2%-22.2%
3/5/202613.2%28.6%14.8%
11/10/2025-1.4%-9.9%12.7%
8/11/202559.2%34.4%29.6%
5/13/2025-7.3%-8.9%-0.8%
3/27/2025-9.9%-16.7%-5.6%
11/7/2024-16.3%-21.6%-21.1%
8/8/20240.0%21.7%30.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91011
# Negative131211
Median Positive5.6%14.6%29.6%
Median Negative-7.3%-11.5%-19.5%
Max Positive59.2%42.4%74.6%
Max Negative-16.3%-21.6%-33.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/7/2026-9.9%-17.2%-22.2%
3/5/202613.2%28.6%14.8%
11/10/2025-1.4%-9.9%12.7%
8/11/202559.2%34.4%29.6%
5/13/2025-7.3%-8.9%-0.8%
3/27/2025-9.9%-16.7%-5.6%
11/7/2024-16.3%-21.6%-21.1%
8/8/20240.0%21.7%30.9%
5/2/2024-0.2%14.4%-1.1%
3/7/2024-4.0%-20.3%-6.9%
11/13/202311.1%14.8%12.0%
8/10/20231.9%-9.6%-15.4%
5/10/2023-5.8%-0.8%29.2%
3/9/20235.6%13.0%-22.4%
8/8/20224.0%11.5%-19.5%
2/24/2022-6.0%0.3%44.3%
11/10/20213.8%-9.3%-24.5%
8/12/2021-8.2%-13.1%21.4%
5/13/202123.9%42.4%74.6%
3/17/2021-10.3%-13.7%-33.0%
11/10/2020-3.8%0.9%64.2%
8/10/2020-7.4%-8.1%49.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91011
# Negative131211
Median Positive5.6%14.6%29.6%
Median Negative-7.3%-11.5%-19.5%
Max Positive59.2%42.4%74.6%
Max Negative-16.3%-21.6%-33.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/13/202510-Q
12/31/202403/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202303/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/14/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/05/202610-K
09/30/202511/10/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/13/202510-Q
12/31/202403/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202303/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/14/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/09/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/13/202110-Q
03/31/202105/14/202110-Q
12/31/202003/18/202110-K
09/30/202011/12/202010-Q
06/30/202008/10/202010-Q
03/31/202005/13/202010-Q
12/31/201903/17/202010-K
09/30/201911/13/201910-Q
06/30/201908/14/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/12/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 30.00 Mil -25.0% LoweredGuidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Annualized Adjusted EBITDA Run-rate 40.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Annual low-carbon ethanol capacity 75.00 Mil    

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash Flow from Operations 0    
2026 Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA 40.00 Mil   AffirmedGuidance: 100.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Cost Savings 3.00 Mil    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Carbon Co-product Sales3.00 Mil4.00 Mil5.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 4.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Carbon Co-product Sales 30.00 Mil    
2026 Adjusted EBITDA 150.00 Mil    

Insider Activity

Updated 6/15/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell61520261.4063,02888,075686,285Form
2Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell61520261.4315,47022,048992,360Form
3Gendenjamts, DavaajargalVP Acctg and TreasurerDirectSell61520261.434,2936,118155,154Form
4Shafer, AndrewChief Mktg Cust & Brnd OfficerDirectSell61520261.439,44313,458444,104Form
5Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell61520261.4335,19650,1611,823,180Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell61520261.4063,02888,075686,285Form
2Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell61520261.4315,47022,048992,360Form
3Gendenjamts, DavaajargalVP Acctg and TreasurerDirectSell61520261.434,2936,118155,154Form
4Shafer, AndrewChief Mktg Cust & Brnd OfficerDirectSell61520261.439,44313,458444,104Form
5Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell61520261.4335,19650,1611,823,180Form
6Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell61520261.4335,18950,1512,114,140Form
7Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell61520261.40157,563220,8565,006,073Form
8Gruber, Patrick R DirectSell52920261.76186,469328,1486,562,282Form
9Shafer, AndrewChief Mktg Cust & Brnd OfficerDirectSell52920261.7632,66757,487564,986Form
10Bowron, Kimberly TChief of StaffDirectSell52920261.7625,10144,1731,252,564Form
11Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell52920261.7731,95856,652982,331Form
12Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell52920261.7687,700154,3342,313,153Form
13Bloom, Paul DCEODirectSell52920261.7675,735133,2782,672,411Form
14Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell50120262.005,55011,103541,808Form
15Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell40120262.9629,79788,1754,149,216Form
16Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell40120262.76100,000275,7403,948,426Form
17Mize, Gary WDirectSell31220262.33107,100250,078656,663Form
18Fitzgerald, Lindsay ClintonChief Public Affairs OfficerDirectSell31220262.5120,00050,124531,813Form
19Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell31220262.215,55012,245597,517Form
20Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell12120261.995,0009,940538,369Form
21Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell122320252.195,00010,974605,349Form
22Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell120820252.3173,284169,183626,148Form
23Gendenjamts, DavaajargalVP Acctg and TreasurerDirectSell120520252.322,5605,943139,794Form
24Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell112120251.995,0009,936558,080Form
25Battershell, Carol JaneDirectSell111420252.0275,597152,782562,374Form
26Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell110420252.2829,79767,970651,991Form
27Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell102320252.535,00012,650798,519Form
28Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell101520252.82100,000281,8704,318,074Form
29Amorelli, AngeloDirectSell101520252.50100,000250,2707,363Form
30Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell92220252.015,00010,062645,216Form
31Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell91820252.0175,000150,4351,852,539Form
32Bowron, Kimberly TChief People and IT OfficerDirectSell90520251.631,5302,493784,158Form
33Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell90520251.631,7312,821449,911Form
34Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell90520251.632,0923,4101,627,504Form
35Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell90520251.631,6832,7422,659,243Form
36Gruber, Patrick RChief Executive OfficerDirectSell90520251.631,6422,6766,266,180Form
37Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell82120251.6357,65193,942452,732Form
38Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell82120251.585,0007,916515,554Form
39Mize, Gary WDirectSell81920251.6891,459153,258650,718Form
40Amorelli, AngeloDirectSell81520252.0016,48532,9705,884Form
41Amorelli, AngeloDirectSell81520251.95183,515357,56137,852Form
42Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell80620251.235,7387,061412,849Form
43Fitzgerald, Lindsay ClintonChief Advocacy & Comms OfficerDirectSell80620251.238,1189,990285,744Form
44Bowron, Kimberly TChief People and IT OfficerDirectSell80620251.2312,37015,223594,080Form
45Smull, L LynnEVPDirectSell80620251.2336,61145,0531,356,282Form
46Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell80620251.2342,07351,5981,227,238Form
47Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell80620251.2342,49952,2992,010,334Form
48Gruber, Patrick RChief Executive OfficerDirectSell80620251.23116,060142,8234,734,246Form
49Fitzgerald, Lindsay ClintonChief Advocacy & Comms OfficerDirectSell80420251.255,1856,496301,093Form
50Bowron, Kimberly TChief People and IT OfficerDirectSell80420251.2511,69414,651620,343Form
51Smull, L LynnEVPDirectSell80420251.2532,80841,1051,426,730Form
52Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell80420251.2527,74434,7601,306,469Form
53Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell80420251.2543,96455,0822,100,011Form
54Gruber, Patrick RChief Executive OfficerDirectSell80420251.25120,304150,7294,965,448Form
55Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell72220251.555,0007,772513,949Form
56Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell71120251.355,0006,738452,248Form
57Smull, L LynnEVP401(k) PlanSell70820251.333,9295,22524,070Form
58Agiri, Oluwagbemileke YusufCFODirectSell60420251.1610,81012,572176,939Form
59Fitzgerald, Lindsay ClintonChief Advocacy & Comms OfficerDirectSell60420251.168,98710,452187,788Form
60Shafer, AndrewChief Cust Mkt & Brnd OfficerDirectSell60220251.2827,53835,304365,232Form
61Smull, L LynnEVPDirectSell60220251.2860,33177,3441,422,085Form
62Bloom, Paul DChief Business OfficerDirectSell60220251.2887,466111,9391,101,160Form
63Ryan, Christopher MichaelPresident & COODirectSell60220251.2873,93494,7831,935,820Form
64Gruber, Patrick RChief Executive OfficerDirectSell60220251.28157,197201,5274,629,019Form
65Bowron, Kimberly TChief People and IT OfficerDirectSell60220251.2823,99430,760501,613Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/21/2026