PBF Energy (PBF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.01 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
PBF Energy (PBF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.01Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Domestic Refined Products Supply, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 73% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Domestic Refined Products Supply, Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 76% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 73% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PBF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
PBF Energy (PBF) experienced a notable movement in its stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by several key developments.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: PBF Energy reported a significant turnaround in its third-quarter 2025 performance, with income from operations reaching $285.9 million, a substantial improvement from a loss of $386.3 million in the same period of 2024. The company also announced a net income of $171.7 million, or $1.45 per share. This positive earnings surprise, beating analysts' consensus estimates, likely contributed to investor confidence.
2. Completion of Terminal Asset Sales: On September 30, 2025, PBF Energy finalized the sale of two non-core refined product terminal facilities for $175.4 million in cash. This move was aimed at increasing liquidity and maximizing value for investors, positively impacting the company's financial position.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PBF Return | -77% | 83% | 217% | 10% | -38% | 36% | 23% |
| Peers Return | -35% | 35% | 58% | 18% | -8% | 36% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PBF Win Rate | 17% | 67% | 83% | 50% | 25% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 58% | 72% | 57% | 48% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PBF Max Drawdown | -86% | -7% | 0% | -23% | -41% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -2% | -2% | -15% | -14% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PBA, MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO. See PBF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PBF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -87.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 685.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 581 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1485 days | 120 days |
Compare to PBA, MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO
In The Past
PBF Energy's stock fell -59.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -59.6% loss requires a 147.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PBF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 12312021 | PBF | PBF Energy | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 136.4% | 217.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 12312021 | PBF | PBF Energy | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 136.4% | 217.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PBF Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 95.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 38.6 |
| Rev LTM | 76,673 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,324 |
| FCF LTM | 1,951 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,198 |
| CFO LTM | 3,375 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,569 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 38.6 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |