Tearsheet

Par Pacific (PARR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.52 | Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Par Pacific (PARR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $38.52
Market Cap: $1.9 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 9.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Petroleum Refining, Energy Logistics & Distribution, and Renewable Fuel Production.
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 137%
4   Key risks
PARR key risks include [1] a disproportionate financial exposure to commodity price volatility due to its heavy revenue dependence on the refining segment.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.3%, FCF Yield is 9.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include Domestic Petroleum Refining, Energy Logistics & Distribution, and Renewable Fuel Production.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 141%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 137%
7 Key risks
PARR key risks include [1] a disproportionate financial exposure to commodity price volatility due to its heavy revenue dependence on the refining segment.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PARR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the movement of Par Pacific (PARR) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today: 1. Par Pacific reported exceptionally strong third-quarter 2025 earnings. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of $5.95 significantly surpassed the forecast of $1.84, and revenue reached $2.01 billion against a forecast of $1.74 billion.

2. The company achieved record operational performance in Q3 2025. This included a record throughput of 198,000 barrels per day and reduced refining production costs.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PARR Return-40%18%41%56%-55%138%68%
Peers Return-44%44%98%18%-18%27%95%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PARR Win Rate33%42%50%75%33%75% 
Peers Win Rate33%58%75%53%38%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PARR Max Drawdown-74%-8%-28%-11%-59%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-70%-3%-2%-17%-22%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VLO, MPC, PSX, DINO, PBF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPARRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven83 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven287.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven952 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven191 days120 days

Compare to DK, MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO


In The Past

Par Pacific's stock fell -40.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/11/2021. A -40.1% loss requires a 67.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Par Pacific (PARR)

Better Bets than Par Pacific (PARR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PARR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.5%4.5%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.5%24.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.1%-7.1%-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Par Pacific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PARRVLOMPCPSXDINOPBFMedian
NamePar Paci.Valero E.Marathon.Phillips.HF Sincl.PBF Ener. 
Mkt Price38.52162.91174.50131.9947.4426.6189.72
Mkt Cap1.950.352.953.48.83.029.6
Rev LTM7,484123,071133,262131,95326,90530,27576,673
Op Inc LTM3733,0854,7341,718711-1,3721,214
FCF LTM1673,9604,2761,351676-1,3331,014
FCF 3Y Avg2486,9898,2984,0691,4505632,760
CFO LTM3364,8397,3913,4081,167-8682,288
CFO 3Y Avg3667,92610,7836,0601,8761,1383,968

Growth & Margins

PARRVLOMPCPSXDINOPBFMedian
NamePar Paci.Valero E.Marathon.Phillips.HF Sincl.PBF Ener. 
Rev Chg LTM-10.1%-8.5%-6.1%-10.7%-9.5%-18.7%-9.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.8%-10.3%-8.3%-6.6%-8.2%-7.1%-7.7%
Rev Chg Q-6.1%-2.2%-0.8%-2.9%0.6%-14.4%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.7%-0.6%-0.2%-0.8%0.2%-4.0%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM5.0%2.5%3.6%1.3%2.6%-4.5%2.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.3%5.3%6.0%3.1%4.5%2.1%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.3%0.8%0.4%0.7%2.5%-0.4%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM4.5%3.9%5.5%2.6%4.3%-2.9%4.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.7%5.7%7.4%4.2%6.1%2.6%5.2%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%3.2%3.2%1.0%2.5%-4.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.2%5.0%5.7%2.8%4.6%1.0%3.9%

Valuation

PARRVLOMPCPSXDINOPBFMedian
NamePar Paci.Valero E.Marathon.Phillips.HF Sincl.PBF Ener. 
Mkt Cap1.950.352.953.48.83.029.6
P/S0.20.40.40.40.40.10.4
P/EBIT4.422.38.518.613.3-2.910.9
P/E7.435.220.336.624.8-3.522.5
P/CFO5.210.97.916.18.4-4.08.1
Total Yield13.4%5.5%6.9%6.2%7.9%-25.0%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.7%1.9%3.5%3.9%3.6%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.7%14.6%14.3%7.5%14.7%5.8%13.0%
D/E0.80.20.60.40.30.90.5
Net D/E0.70.10.50.40.20.80.5

Returns

PARRVLOMPCPSXDINOPBFMedian
NamePar Paci.Valero E.Marathon.Phillips.HF Sincl.PBF Ener. 
1M Rtn-14.4%-8.7%-11.0%-3.4%-13.7%-29.8%-12.3%
3M Rtn9.2%0.2%-5.0%-0.0%-9.1%-12.1%-2.5%
6M Rtn40.6%18.5%5.3%7.7%16.7%17.1%16.9%
12M Rtn140.8%34.6%29.3%18.2%39.4%-0.4%31.9%
3Y Rtn82.7%49.7%69.7%46.2%6.0%-20.4%47.9%
1M Excs Rtn-15.1%-9.4%-11.7%-4.1%-14.4%-30.5%-13.1%
3M Excs Rtn6.8%-1.3%-6.6%-0.0%-11.2%-13.9%-3.9%
6M Excs Rtn28.3%6.2%-7.0%-4.7%4.4%4.7%4.5%
12M Excs Rtn122.9%19.0%11.5%0.5%22.0%-16.0%15.3%
3Y Excs Rtn19.7%-20.4%-0.9%-24.3%-62.6%-87.0%-22.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining7,9697,0464,4712,8875,168
Retail592570456364459
Logistics261199185181199
Corporate, Eliminations and Other-591-493-402-306-425
Total8,2327,3224,7103,1255,402


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining676402-89-33294
Logistics7054513559
Retail5749812449
Corporate, Eliminations and Other-123-67-51-45-54
Total680438-8-318148


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining2,9052,5801,9291,4791,907
Logistics530412398445494
Retail257244228193232
Corporate, Eliminations and Other17244151767
Total3,8643,2812,5702,1342,701


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,770,448
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202511.8%
Average Daily Volume1,523,007
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.13
Basic Shares Quantity49,633,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-7.2%8.8%7.8%
8/6/20250.1%6.4%25.1%
5/7/20256.0%17.7%30.1%
2/26/2025-9.7%-19.1%-7.8%
11/5/20249.5%10.9%7.6%
8/6/20241.7%-2.3%-13.7%
2/28/2024-8.9%-12.6%-9.2%
11/7/2023-1.1%5.9%1.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111314
# Negative12109
Median Positive5.6%8.1%7.7%
Median Negative-3.0%-10.8%-11.9%
Max Positive23.3%29.5%84.5%
Max Negative-11.7%-19.1%-52.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021