Amcor (AMCR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $8.31 | Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Amcor (AMCR)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $8.31Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksAMCR key risks include [1] increasing operational costs from specific environmental regulations like the EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) and [2] a notable decline in North American volumes, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Key risksAMCR key risks include [1] increasing operational costs from specific environmental regulations like the EU's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) and [2] a notable decline in North American volumes, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMCR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025, Amcor (AMCR) stock experienced a decline due to several key factors: **1. Q4 Fiscal 2025 Earnings Miss and Net Loss.** Amcor reported a net loss of $39 million for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, a significant deterioration compared to the prior year's profit, and its earnings per share (EPS) fell below analyst expectations. This performance, announced around mid-August 2025, served as an immediate negative catalyst at the beginning of the period. **2. High Integration Costs from Berry Global Acquisition.** The net loss in Q4 2025 was largely attributed to substantial integration costs associated with the acquisition of Berry Global. While the acquisition is anticipated to yield long-term synergies, the immediate expenses weighed heavily on the company's profitability. **3. Weak Fundamentals and Elevated Leverage.** Concerns over Amcor's financial health, including high leverage with an equity multiplier of 4.27x, a net profit margin of 5.46%, and a sluggish cash conversion cycle of 119.89 days, contributed to investor caution. These weak fundamentals were cited as reasons for the stock dropping to its lowest level since April 2020 in early September 2025. **4. Declining Packaging Volumes and Macroeconomic Headwinds.** The company experienced a decline in legacy packaging volumes during Q4 fiscal 2025, primarily driven by softer demand in North America and operational challenges within its North American beverage business. Broader macroeconomic factors, such as a contracting Chinese manufacturing sector and inflationary pressures, further exacerbated market pessimism and put downward pressure on packaging margins. **5. Analyst Downgrades and Bearish Sentiment.** Analysts trimmed their price targets for Amcor and expressed caution regarding its near-term performance as of December 2025. Concerns included the potential for slower-than-expected integration of Berry Global and persistent industry headwinds, which fostered a bearish market sentiment during the latter part of the period.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMCR Return | 13% | 6% | 3% | -15% | 3% | -6% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 17% | -19% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMCR Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 57% | 47% | 48% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMCR Max Drawdown | -44% | -7% | -9% | -26% | -8% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -9% | -33% | -20% | -12% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SEE, SLGN, IP, BALL, CCK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMCR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
Compare to HI, IP, SW, AMCR, PKG
In The Past
Amcor's stock fell -37.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/6/2022. A -37.4% loss requires a 59.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Amcor Earnings Notes | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Amcor Stock with 7.3% Return (vs. -6.6% YTD) [11/10/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| How Low Can Amcor Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Amcor vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Amcor vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Amcor vs Crown: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Amcor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than AMCR Stock: Pay Less Than Amcor To Get More From MRK, HCA | |||
| Better Bet Than AMCR Stock: Pay Less Than Amcor To Get More From AA | |||
| Amcor (AMCR) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Amcor Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 7.3% | November 11th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 10th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 8th, 2025 | ||
| AMCR Lost 15% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait? | September 13th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMCR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.2% | 24.2% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.6% | 7.6% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 0.2% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 24.2% | 24.2% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amcor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| Rev LTM | 12,418 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,085 |
| FCF LTM | 263 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 449 |
| CFO LTM | 884 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,109 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| 8/14/2025 | -11.9% | -13.8% | -15.4% |
| 4/30/2025 | -1.3% | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -7.8% | -8.3% | -3.8% |
| 8/15/2024 | -3.7% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | 9.6% | 13.2% | 11.9% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.2% | -3.3% | 4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 13.2% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -13.8% | -38.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8162024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |