Amcor (AMCR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.48 | Market Cap: $19.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Amcor (AMCR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.48Market Cap: $19.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 5.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 5.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -93% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMCR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Amcor's (AMCR) stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025:
1. Mixed Q4 2025 Earnings and EPS Miss: Amcor reported a GAAP net loss of $39 million for Q4 fiscal 2025 due to acquisition-related expenses following the Berry Global acquisition, despite a surge in revenue. The reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20 also fell slightly below analyst estimates of $0.22. This mixed performance led to an initial dip in shares after the August 14, 2025, earnings release.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions: Multiple analysts adjusted their price targets for Amcor downward between August and December 2025. Some targets were lowered from $11.00 to $9.00 or $10.00, influenced by factors such as slightly higher discount rate assumptions and a modestly lower future price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMCR Return | 13% | 6% | 3% | -15% | 3% | -6% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 9% | -8% | 8% | 13% | -14% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMCR Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 38% | 42% | 59% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMCR Max Drawdown | -44% | -7% | -9% | -26% | -8% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -5% | -17% | -11% | -13% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HI, IP, AMCR, PKG, SW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMCR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 148 days |
Compare to HI, IP, AMCR, PKG, SW
In The Past
Amcor's stock fell -37.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/6/2022. A -37.4% loss requires a 59.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Amcor Stock with 7.3% Return (vs. -6.6% YTD) [11/10/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| How Low Can Amcor Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Amcor vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Amcor vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Amcor vs Crown: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Amcor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Better Bet Than AMCR Stock: Pay Less Than Amcor To Get More From MRK, HCA | |||
| Better Bet Than AMCR Stock: Pay Less Than Amcor To Get More From AA | |||
| Amcor (AMCR) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Amcor (AMCR) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Amcor Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 7.3% | November 11th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 10th, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | October 8th, 2025 | ||
| AMCR Lost 15% In A Month. Do You Buy Or Wait? | September 13th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMCR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amcor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| Rev LTM | 17,401 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,296 |
| FCF LTM | 725 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 491 |
| CFO LTM | 1,436 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,366 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 28.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 18.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 12.1 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8152025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8162024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8182022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |